CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #5

[RedHaus]

FWIW, here is an updated map with the addition of a label for South Fork Trail, along with blue star to highlight Route 140 and the "Truck Parked Here" indicator.

I think for anyone diving deep into this case, especially trying to answer the questions like "Where did they hike?" or "Why did they hike there?" or "Were they lost or confused?", it is important to understand there are many roads / trails with similar names and can be very disorienting to those not local to the area, for sure! IMO.

1. Hites Mine Trail
2. Hite Cove Trail
3. Hites Cove Trail
4. South Fork Trail
5. Hites Cove OHV Trail
6. Savage-Lundy Trail
7. Hites Cove Road

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Thank you @RedHaus. The family DID NOT hike the Hites Cove Trail. Maybe they thought they did, but they did not. They walked down an access road to the Merced River, if LE is correct. I cannot find any indication anywhere that this is a trail. It is a vehicular roadway that people may walk. It sounds terrible from the mariposatrails.org site.

If the GCs were experienced hikers, why did they choose the road down to the River rather than the designated popular hiking trail Savage-Lundy, which is maintained by the Mariposa Trails group? (Thanks to @Han 's link we can see this trail in detail from a hiker's 2015 account before the fire.) Mariposa Trails says this about Savage Lundy, after a heat advisory: This is a great foot trail with extensive vistas of Devil's Gulch and the South Fork Merced River drainages, especially after the 2018 Ferguson Fire striped the entire hillside of vegetation, making an incredibly stark landscape.

IMO, they thought the road was easier. Or they didn't know about Savage Lundy because they were using AllTrails as a guide. OR they confused the trails as all of us have, and thought they were on Hites Cove Trail when they were not.

@redhaus labels the access road as 5. Hites Cove OHV Trail, but I would maintain for clarity's sake we call it a Road, as the Mariposa Trails group does, not a Trail. MOO.

 

[mickey2942]

It can be confusing to use "All Trails" as an actual map. I always rely on a regular map, paper, and USGS topo map. Old school.

 

[ChatteringBirds]

What if there is no cell service? Or their phones might not work if too hot.

I hiked in the desert overt the past weekend and had my cell phone so I could take photos. The phone became too hot and I wasn’t even able to use the camera. I wouldn’t have been able to text even if I had cell service.

Oh I should have clarified - I'm sure they had no cell phone service, but I thought they might have tried to send messages hoping they'd go through. Messages which would give clues about what was happening. But with several people saying phones can stop working entirely in that kind of heat, then maybe they couldn't even try to type or send a message

 

[NSamuelle]

Homicide was ruled out in August. Many theories similar to yours have been vetted here. Basically, at this time we are left waiting on final toxicology results.

If you go back thru the threads, you will find many probing questions, answers and theories to consider.

This family chose to take a hike near where their truck was parked that day. No evidence we have proves otherwise.

By sticking to the probables we are still left with the puzzle of why they made the choices they did and ended up where they did on a day when heat stroke was more than a probable risk. That same risk would apply to any outside nefarious actors were any known.

Why? Why? Why? We all have questions while we wait. But many theories can be based on the evidence we do have. And IMO, should be.

JMHO

Homicide was not ruled out in August; only homicide via the use of a gun or other deadly weapon. Homicide via poisoning has not been ruled out, nor could it have been ruled out in August when tox was still pending. It is very telling that homicide is not listed among the most recent CODs that have been ruled out. CO and CO2 were ruled out in August but the most recent list repeats them as having been ruled out. No mention of homicide being ruled out.

2 Causes of Death Ruled Out as Investigation into Calif. Family's Mysterious Deaths Continues

From August: “[T]he sheriff's office officially ruled out two causes: exposure to chemicals along the trail the family were on, and use of a gun or another deadly weapon.”

 

[Deleted member 222031]

H

Homicide was not ruled out in August; only homicide via the use of a gun or other deadly weapon. Homicide via poisoning has not been ruled out. 2 Causes of Death Ruled Out as Investigation into Calif. Family's Mysterious Deaths Continues

“[T]he sheriff's office officially ruled out two causes: exposure to chemicals along the trail the family were on, and use of a gun or another deadly weapon.”

My theory is food poisoning (non-nefarious) combine with heat stroke in the adults and heat stroke only for infant and dog.

<modsnip - WS admin approved discussion of possible homicide as long as it does not implicate any victim or person by name or description>
MOO

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

My point is-- if Jon had used something other than AllTrails (ie MariposaTrails.org or topo maps) he'd have seen that SL is the hiking trail down to South Fork. Perhaps if they'd started on SL they'd have realized straightaway that the hike was not a good idea. MoO is that they took Hite Cove Road because of AllTrails. But all guesswork.

Agree that seems very likelhy

They knew a way out of the canyon- back the way they came. If you came down 2000' you're going to have to go back up at least 2000', there's no altitude shortcut. As it leaves the river, the SLT is going south, then turns west to go up the switchbacks. I conclude they planned to take the SLT, and did. They knew it went back to their truck, else they would have turned around. Who would continue into that hellscape not knowing where that trail was going? MOO

Agree, the truck was parked between the trail LE believes they went down and the one going up, where the bodies were found, the heat and depth of DG were the issues. MOO. And regardless of apps, looking down and hiking down HCT gave them immediate feedback re temps and elevation. MOO. There were EC IG posts re pushing through, I think it was a trait of both, quite possibly. MOO.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

dbm, will just scroll.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Just a by-the-way, thought I'd mention why (IMO) they tested for cyanide (and ruled it out). Sodium cyanide solution is commonly used to leach gold from ore. So if someone was down there doing some illegal gold mining, crushing the ore and using cyanide to extract the gold, the family could possibly have come in contact with it.

 

[minazoe]

if some nefarious group of crazy grower people did this I would think rumors would be leaking by now..a group won't be able to keep it tight..someone will tell someone and it will get around..mOO

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I gave the name of the trail in thread one, or at least two when the Chronicle first published the map. It wasn't difficult to find.

I hear you, @SophieRose . You were ahead of us on the South Fork Trail. I didn't realize back on thread 1 how important it would be to understand this crazy trail system. As you, others, and @RedHaus have made clear, a big part of this mystery may be the confusion over trail names.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

FWIW it sounds like there was no sign for the Savage Lundy Trail at the trailhead where the GC family parked.

Caption for Savage-Lundy Trailhead on MariposaTrails.org
"It is generally best to park here, as the road east of here is rough and best travelled by vehicles with very high clearance. There is generally room for about 3-4 vehicles here. There are no signage or facilities present."

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

To all your hikers. I have a question.

If I study various maps, I see so many jurisdictions who take responsibility for this recreational area, its signs and trails. Sierra National Forest, MariposaTrails.org, Upper Merced River Water Council, BLM, Mariposa County, Merced Irrigation District. Is this usual?

How confusing if you were a local hiker.

 

[rahod1]

They knew a way out of the canyon- back the way they came. If you came down 2000' you're going to have to go back up at least 2000', there's no altitude shortcut. As it leaves the river, the SLT is going south, then turns west to go up the switchbacks. I conclude they planned to take the SLT, and did. They knew it went back to their truck, else they would have turned around. Who would continue into that hellscape not knowing where that trail was going? MOO

Perhaps. My take>>> From the bottom of HC Trail at the river to the truck via SL would be about 5 miles. It would be only 2 miles back up HC to the truck. That's an additional 3 miles (and almost 2 hrs longer) to complete the loop up SL. Here's what's key to me>>> By the time they reached the bottom of HC at the river, it was HOT. From the start, it's an hour or so later and 2K lower in elevation. What was their state of mind at that point when they reached the river? MOO>>>They were probably uncomfortable at that point and the hike was no longer pleasant. If that was the case, WHY would they ADD 3 more miles in the heat (and add another hr or two) knowing they would still be facing a climb back up ? We'll never know if they planned the loop or not, but I think there was a moment at the HC/River junction where they must have contemplated returning back HC Trail vs forging ahead south along the river to to SL. MOO

 

[RickshawFan]

Rule of threes (survival) - Wikipedia

This "Rule of Three" is very interesting to me, it seems "logical". But I KNOW from personal experience, that there is NO way a person can survive in a high desert area for three days, without water. But maybe, if the family had been able to rig up a shelter for shade, until it cooled off, they would have been better off.

The problem is the quick step to being able to think with logic, in a crisis. Good information to tuck in your back pocket. In this case, the "logic" of getting to the car faster, actually made things worse.

What could have saved this family? Same exact circumstances?

I have only had 2 or 3 critical incidents in my life. Once, on a steep slope of shale. It didn't seem so bad at the beginning, going down. Then, the grade changed, and more shale started creating unstable footing. I sat down. Cried. Took off my pack, and left it there. That made the difference. Doesn't make sense to leave all of your equipment? In that moment of time, it was all I could think to do. I went back up. And came back a week later with a friend, and ropes to get my backpack.

Wow, that was a creative choice. Good for you.
That's a good summary of "things can go very bad if you try to be logical"; IMO this is very likely the situation here. Perhaps some not so great choices got them where they were, but "logical and intelligent" choices made it a whole lot worse.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

Wow, that was a creative choice. Good for you.
That's a good summary of "things can go very bad if you try to be logical"; IMO this is very likely the situation here. Perhaps some not so great choices got them where they were, but "logical and intelligent" choices made it a whole lot worse.

The "rule" re: extreme heat from link above

Rule
Normally, the rule of threes contains the following:

• You can survive three minutes without breathable air (unconsciousness) generally with protection, or in icy water.
• You can survive three hours in a harsh environment (extreme heat or cold).
• You can survive three days without drinkable water.
• You can survive three weeks without food.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Perhaps. My take>>> From the bottom of HC Trail at the river to the truck via SL would be about 5 miles. It would be only 2 miles back up HC to the truck. That's an additional 3 miles (and almost 2 hrs longer) to complete the loop up SL. Here's what's key to me>>> By the time they reached the bottom of HC at the river, it was HOT. From the start, it's an hour or so later and 2K lower in elevation. What was their state of mind at that point when they reached the river? MOO>>>They were probably uncomfortable at that point and the hike was no longer pleasant. If that was the case, WHY would they ADD 3 more miles in the heat (and add another hr or two) knowing they would still be facing a climb back up ? We'll never know if they planned the loop or not, but I think there was a moment at the HC/River junction where they must have contemplated returning back HC Trail vs forging ahead south along the river to to SL. MOO

The part along the river has the most remaining trees and would be the highlight of the trip. If it was shady, the heat wouldn't be so bad, and if they planned to do the loop, they followed their plan. Having been to Burning Man and the Gobi Desert, maybe they thought they could handle the heat, but at Burning Man they have water and shelter, and the action happens in the evening and night. We will likely never know their reasoning, but my theory is they thought the river water was toxic, and so avoided it. Reminds me of people locally dying from you-know-what, because they fear you-know-what-else.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Wow, that was a creative choice. Good for you.
That's a good summary of "things can go very bad if you try to be logical"; IMO this is very likely the situation here. Perhaps some not so great choices got them where they were, but "logical and intelligent" choices made it a whole lot worse.

I don't think it was logical to do a 2000' descent in the morning on a hot day, knowing you would have to do that climb later when it was hotter. I don't think it was logical to keep going- there's an old saying, "When you're in a hole, stop digging". I don't think it was logical to keep going up the SLT, which must have been harrowing in that heat. If they started up, they should have realized the safe thing to do was return to the river, keep cool, and wait for the heat to abate. I think they were most likely focused on two illusions, the "toxic" river water, and the "safety" of their truck. Don't blame logic. MOO

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

The part along the river has the most remaining trees and would be the highlight of the trip. If it was shady, the heat wouldn't be so bad, and if they planned to do the loop, they followed their plan. Having been to Burning Man and the Gobi Desert, maybe they thought they could handle the heat, but at Burning Man they have water and shelter, and the action happens in the evening and night. We will likely never know their reasoning, but my theory is they thought the river water was toxic, and so avoided it. Reminds me of people locally dying from you-know-what, because they fear you-know-what-else.

I think this all sounds likely. I read somewhere that it was hotter in Devil's Gulch that day than it had been in Gobi on their adventure tour, MOO, things like that and BM could give one a false sense of safety re: heat. Of course both the tour and BM have built in safeguards, medical help, more water and other resources that they did not have on their hike. MOO. Per the SAR articles that have been posted in prior threads, overconfidence and underestimating risks is often a disastrous combo.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

Perhaps. My take>>> From the bottom of HC Trail at the river to the truck via SL would be about 5 miles. It would be only 2 miles back up HC to the truck. That's an additional 3 miles (and almost 2 hrs longer) to complete the loop up SL. Here's what's key to me>>> By the time they reached the bottom of HC at the river, it was HOT. From the start, it's an hour or so later and 2K lower in elevation. What was their state of mind at that point when they reached the river? MOO>>>They were probably uncomfortable at that point and the hike was no longer pleasant. If that was the case, WHY would they ADD 3 more miles in the heat (and add another hr or two) knowing they would still be facing a climb back up ? We'll never know if they planned the loop or not, but I think there was a moment at the HC/River junction where they must have contemplated returning back HC Trail vs forging ahead south along the river to to SL. MOO

Sometimes when people have a plan and then get overheated they cling to the plan, another example is in the linked article below. I don't think we will ever know what they were thinking, just what they DID, MOO.
What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online

Or, perhaps they thought the switchbacks would make the climb easier, if longer? MOO.