CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #5

[ItalyReader]

FWIW, here is an updated map with the addition of a label for South Fork Trail, along with blue star to highlight Route 140 and the "Truck Parked Here" indicator.

I think for anyone diving deep into this case, especially trying to answer the questions like "Where did they hike?" or "Why did they hike there?" or "Were they lost or confused?", it is important to understand there are many roads / trails with similar names and can be very disorienting to those not local to the area, for sure! IMO.

1. Hites Mine Trail
2. Hite Cove Trail
3. Hites Cove Trail
4. South Fork Trail
5. Hites Cove OHV Trail
6. Savage-Lundy Trail
7. Hites Cove Road
View attachment 316305

this map is epically helpful!!!! Thank you

 

[rahod1]

Sometimes when people have a plan and then get overheated they cling to the plan, another example is in the linked article below. I don't think we will ever know what they were thinking, just what they DID, MOO.
What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online
Or, perhaps they thought the switchbacks would make the climb easier, if longer? MOO.

That's (in bold) for sure. All we can do is speculate and that's what this is really all about. I've been focusing on the point of this hike where they reached the river on HC Cove Trail. Whatever the *plan* was, there may have been a moment of reflection as to how they were feeling and the how dependents were holding up at that juncture. We know it was HOT and getting HOTTER by the hour. MOO>> They must have had some vision of what lay ahead of them if they took the river south to SL. Also, it appears that they were not going to interact in any way with the river due to toxic algae warnings. That trip would be LONGER and more TIME CONSUMING vs turning back up the trail they just took. The decision to proceed further was either a deviation from their original plan to hike down and back HC Trail OR, like you and others have said, it was a continuation of the plan to do a loop back up SL. MOO>> It's very possible they could have survived had they turned back up. That hike would have been about 1 1/2 miles shorter and almost an hour less vs where they were actually found 1 1/2 miles up the SL . Time and distance were critical since HEAT and lack of shade were looming the entire hike.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I wonder if LE tried to find any ATV users who may have been on Hites Cove Road on Sunday. I know it was hot, but what about people driving down to the river for fun? I'm guessing the Hites Cove Road trail may be one of the few access roads down to the Merced. What if a kid gave them a ride down to the River? What if he's too scared to come forward or if she doesn't know about the case?

 

[RickshawFan]

I don't think it was logical to do a 2000' descent in the morning on a hot day, knowing you would have to do that climb later when it was hotter. I don't think it was logical to keep going- there's an old saying, "When you're in a hole, stop digging". I don't think it was logical to keep going up the SLT, which must have been harrowing in that heat. If they started up, they should have realized the safe thing to do was return to the river, keep cool, and wait for the heat to abate. I think they were most likely focused on two illusions, the "toxic" river water, and the "safety" of their truck. Don't blame logic. MOO

IME people who are in their heads are prone to overthinking. What they thought was logical was disastrous. I can see that happening (I'm an over-thinker).
In my experience, as you put it, everything they did was TOTALLY illogical. But, I'll bet once they were by the river, they thought they were doing the logical thing. They may well have thought they were being sensible by not going up the way they came down, because they realized the risks.
From the bottom of the HC trail, the trail along the river, since it headed upstream, would presumably look like it was gaining elevation, but in a moderate kind of way. And this deceived them. One way to think about this: a moderate slope with more miles might be less risky than the same steep trail they came down on. They made a bad assumption, and ended up having to go much further and steeper.

I don't believe the couple deliberately set out to do the loop. I think they got down to the bottom of the HC trail and was forced to reassess without enough information (e.g. a real actual map in hand, working communications) to do so. And they reassessed wrong.

A whole lot is explained in this case, IMO, if the couple didn't have information, and began to make decisions without it.

 

[RickshawFan]

It can be confusing to use "All Trails" as an actual map. I always rely on a regular map, paper, and USGS topo map. Old school.

AllTrails has sent me to the wrong place 80% of the time.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Thursday LA TIMES: Heat waves are far deadlier than we think. How California neglects this climate threat

"Extreme heat did not suddenly become a threat to Californians’ lives. The Times found that state leaders have ignored years of warnings from within their own agencies that heat was becoming more dangerous."

"Each year, extreme heat kills more Americans than any other climate-fueled hazard, including hurricanes, floods and wildfires, but it gets far less attention because it kills so quietly."

"There were experienced hikers and runners, such as the 57-year-old San Diego County man who was “in excellent health and jogged daily,” according to a coroner’s report, and died after a mid-morning jog in 90-degree heat. High school students collapsed during football practice, and a young firefighter fell during a training hike and couldn’t get back up."

"The day before, when the temperature in Malibu Creek State Park topped 103 degrees, a healthy 48-year-old woman collapsed while hiking and died of heatstroke."

 

[rahod1]

I wonder if LE tried to find any ATV users who may have been on Hites Cove Road on Sunday. I know it was hot, but what about people driving down to the river for fun? I'm guessing the Hites Cove Road trail may be one of the few access roads down to the Merced. What if a kid gave them a ride down to the River? What if he's too scared to come forward or if she doesn't know about the case?

Actually...that brings up a good point. I suspect there wasn't a SOUL out there that day, otherwise we would expect some corroboration of the family taking the hike at some point. But we have SILENCE. I don't think anyone would be holding back...in fact I would expect them to tell someone (realtives ...friends) of any encounter they had. Even if they never knew of their fate. Also, there should have been recent tracks of ATV along any family prints. Just MOO.

 

[RickshawFan]

Sometimes when people have a plan and then get overheated they cling to the plan, another example is in the linked article below. I don't think we will ever know what they were thinking, just what they DID, MOO.
What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online

Or, perhaps they thought the switchbacks would make the climb easier, if longer? MOO.

IMO they didn't know anything about the S-L trail before they came upon it. I don't believe they knew about the switchbacks, the elevation, the distance..... The only plan IMO was to go down the HC and come back the same way.

 

[rahod1]

IMO they didn't know anything about the S-L trail before they came upon it. I don't believe they knew about the switchbacks, the elevation, the distance..... The only plan IMO was to go down the HC and come back the same way.

That was my thought as well, if that's the case, then what would compel them to venture into the *unknown* which would be much more challenging ( time and distance)? The only thing that comes to mind is that they decided that the return back HC would be more daunting than going down the river. That would imply that reaching the river from HC was a seminal moment in the hike. I still maintain that by the time they reached the river from HC, things were no longer *HUNKY DORY* . MOO

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I'm not sure things would have turned out any differently if they had returned the way they came. MOO

 

[rahod1]

I'm not sure things would have turned out any differently if they had returned the way they came. MOO

Perhaps, but given the conditions, every mile and hour mattered. Temps were rising dramatically by the hour. Also, the physiological response to increasing temp is not linear...once a threshold on core body temp is reached, the clock is ticking. Every minute counts.

 

[gitana1]

If you haven't seen this yet, @gitana1, this may be news to you. Came out Thursday last week. We'd love an attorney's take... we've been dissecting this for days.
Update Mariposa Sheriff’s Office – Gerrish / Chung Investigation | Sierra News Online

Thank you so much for that. I appreciate it! Hmm. They’ve ruled out a lot! I don’t really have a take from a legal standpoint except they must have definitive evidence to rule out the possibilities they ruled out.

 

[Karuna]

Been lurking and following along for a bit, venturing into a first post. Appreciate all of the thoughtful ideas and information. Such a terribly sad situation.

MOO, it does seem like their hike was planned (at least the first part) and, MOO, HS/accidental seems like the most plausible COD/MOD.

Like others, it's really hard to wrap my head around how they decided to hike in that heat with their dog and baby at all. I have small kids, one close in age to their baby. We play often outside, but on hot days (90s+) we keep our time outside with the baby short and move inside to the AC. It's really hard to imagine thinking of taking a baby out for any extended time in that kind of heat. Maybe like others have said about underestimating the heat/risk and overestimating their ability, there's also inexperience being first time parents and they got tragically unlucky with their judgment call. Just speculating. Those baby backpacks are also warm (for both parent and baby) and heavy.

Regarding the idea that they might have survived had they stayed at the river overnight and hiked out at dawn and how hiking back up SL when they did wasn't logical: staying at the river does seem like the safest thing in retrospect, moo. Seems their thinking could certainly been altered by impending HS and even alarm if a sense of vulnerability with heat/return hike was setting in. However, I also can totally imagine their concern, panic even, about the baby. An overnight would be one thing with the adults or adults/dog, but I can totally see if they didn't have a lot of water and didn't feel safe drinking the river water due to algae (or even if they did) and weren't prepared with warm clothes, diapers, or food for an overnight them feeling the urge to just get Out and back to their truck. I could especially see this if they were perceiving distress in the baby (either crying or lethargy) that would make them want to MOVE.

I read lots of ideas and questions about why they chose to go along the river toward SL (bc it's steeper and adds more mileage) versus retracing their steps up HC and have wondered, could they have been looking for other people, maybe hoping someone could help or go for help, and when they didn't find anyone took SL out so as not to burn more miles back to HC?

Finally, I read the link above about what it's like to die from HS. The convulsions/seizures/vomiting all makes me think of JG found deceased in a seated position. Would this position make sense with how HS affects the body?

 

[jabchick]

If they did indeed take the HC OHV Trail/HC Road — MOO, perhaps on the way down to the river, they encountered an animal that was threatening...? Or had an altercation with a single angry person or group of folks who were intimidating...? Or, as someone has already mentioned, they were witness to something...? This would lead them to consider another route back out of the canyon — MOO.

MOO, in these times we are living in (global pandemic, job recession, polarization, a notion of "outsiders", housing crisis, the disparity between the have and have-nots, etc.) it is not hard to imagine encountering agro people, be it towards (one's) happiness, status, race, etc. even on a hiking trail — MOO.

Another thought or theory — since it is suspected that they started out down the HC OHV Trail/HC Road — MOO, perhaps they turned around (for one reason or another) and decided to explore the SL Trail. They got halfway down the SL (for some amount of distance), but turned around. It was too hot. And baby and pup were suffering symptoms of heat exhaustion. Perhaps the baby succumbed to HS, and they did not realize it right away, and they used most of their water to cool off the pup —> MOO, parents are then traumatized, distraught, feeling guilty, overheated, fatigued, and suffering from poor judgment and lack of water and unable to press on together —> since EC was found higher up the trail, perhaps she was going for help. She maybe could not carry the pup, so she secured him to JG who stays with the baby, and heads toward the truck. MOO, she is in shock, overheating, grieving, and extremely exhausted. As mentioned earlier in a WS thread, she was recovering from a TBI.

< modsnip - quoted post was not linked>

MOO, perhaps she had a seizure or another type of TBI side effect (problem with cognition, senses, etc.). I have a close friend who has been recovering from a TBI from four+ years ago. The long-term effects can persist for years or throughout a person's life.

 

[Pumphouse363]

The part along the river has the most remaining trees and would be the highlight of the trip. If it was shady, the heat wouldn't be so bad, and if they planned to do the loop, they followed their plan. Having been to Burning Man and the Gobi Desert, maybe they thought they could handle the heat, but at Burning Man they have water and shelter, and the action happens in the evening and night. We will likely never know their reasoning, but my theory is they thought the river water was toxic, and so avoided it. Reminds me of people locally dying from you-know-what, because they fear you-know-what-else.

But they didn’t take a 12 month old child and a dog to BM or the Gobi Desert.

 

[Pumphouse363]

I think this all sounds likely. I read somewhere that it was hotter in Devil's Gulch that day than it had been in Gobi on their adventure tour, MOO, things like that and BM could give one a false sense of safety re: heat. Of course both the tour and BM have built in safeguards, medical help, more water and other resources that they did not have on their hike. MOO. Per the SAR articles that have been posted in prior threads, overconfidence and underestimating risks is often a disastrous combo.

They also did not take Miju or Oski to BM or the Gobi Desert.

 

[drama_farmer]

The baby wasn't born yet, and International travel with a pet can be complicated and expensive, IMO.

They also did not take Miju or Oski to BM or the Gobi Desert.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Thank you @RedHaus. The family DID NOT hike the Hites Cove Trail. Maybe they thought they did, but they did not. They walked down an access road to the Merced River, if LE is correct. I cannot find any indication anywhere that this is a trail. It is a vehicular roadway that people may walk. It sounds terrible from the mariposatrails.org site.

If the GCs were experienced hikers, why did they choose the road down to the River rather than the designated popular hiking trail Savage-Lundy, which is maintained by the Mariposa Trails group? (Thanks to @Han 's link we can see this trail in detail from a hiker's 2015 account before the fire.) Mariposa Trails says this about Savage Lundy, after a heat advisory: This is a great foot trail with extensive vistas of Devil's Gulch and the South Fork Merced River drainages, especially after the 2018 Ferguson Fire striped the entire hillside of vegetation, making an incredibly stark landscape.

IMO, they thought the road was easier. Or they didn't know about Savage Lundy because they were using AllTrails as a guide. OR they confused the trails as all of us have, and thought they were on Hites Cove Trail when they were not.

@redhaus labels the access road as 5. Hites Cove OHV Trail, but I would maintain for clarity's sake we call it a Road, as the Mariposa Trails group does, not a Trail. MOO.

If they took as access road instead of the trail, maybe it’s possible that they previously may have tested out some trails with a hiking stroller? (Or is it a flat ‘no’, considering how narrow the trail is.)

 

[RickshawFan]

That was my thought as well, if that's the case, then what would compel them to venture into the *unknown* which would be much more challenging ( time and distance)? The only thing that comes to mind is that they decided that the return back HC would be more daunting than going down the river. That would imply that reaching the river from HC was a seminal moment in the hike. I still maintain that by the time they reached the river from HC, things were no longer *HUNKY DORY* . MOO

Exactly this. IMO they might even have zoomed down the HC trail not really paying attention because the going was easy, the baby asleep, etc. They got to the bottom and realized that the risks of going back up were astronomical. They put their thinking caps together and, with the trail along the river right at their feet, came up with the idea of trying to make a loop back to the car that might be less risky. They didn’t have the info they needed to make that decision, and they thought themselves into a catastrophe.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

They also did not take Miju or Oski to BM or the Gobi Desert.

If they hiked most weekends, according to friends, who looked after Miju and Oski? And there are photos of Oski out hiking, on and off leash.