Canada, Greenland, Mexico, etc - USA Tariffs / Trade War commencing March 2025 #5

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Sillybilly

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Please continue discussion here.

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A manufacturing plant owner in China of Halloween products was quoted in this article. interesting to hear her view, as a business owner who employs over 100 people.

She says the Chinese people save their money, and said they can survive 1-2 years, maybe even 3 years. As she sees it, foreigners do not save, but spend what they make.

She believes the Chinese would win a prolonged trade war, because they work hard, and can “eat bitterness”, a phrase President Xi uses.


ETA: It seems there’s a paywall, so I paraphrased. Somehow I was able to read the article, so I’m not sure how I was able to. Sorry bout that.
 
A manufacturing plant owner in China of Halloween products was quoted in this article. interesting to hear her view, as a business owner who employs over 100 people.

She says the Chinese people save their money, and said they can survive 1-2 years, maybe even 3 years. As she sees it, foreigners do not save, but spend what they make.

She believes the Chinese would win a prolonged trade war, because they work hard, and can “eat bitterness”, a phrase President Xi uses.


ETA: It seems there’s a paywall, so I paraphrased. Somehow I was able to read the article, so I’m not sure how I was able to. Sorry bout that.

I saw a couple of signs put up by Chinese shops warning US customers of a 104% service fee. (just prior to the tariff hike to 125%)
One says that if you have any questions, please contact the US Embassy.

b.webp a.webp


 

145% tariffs on China are clobbering the toy industry​

Toys made in China have been exempt from tariffs since President Donald Trump’s first term. That is no longer the case.

Last month, Trump raised tariff rates on China to 20%, dealing a big blow to the toy industry. But he didn’t stop there. Just a few weeks later, Trump was set to tack on an additional 34% “reciprocal” tariff. Then he tacked on another tariff, and another, and another.

Now, goods from China are being tariffed at a whopping 145% rate — and that number will likely keep growing as Beijing vows to continue retaliating against new tariffs and Trump threatens to do the same.

For American families, this means relatively inexpensive toys could become luxuries. That’s because nearly 80% of all toys sold in the US are manufactured in China, according to the Toy Association, a leading industry group.

“We have no choice but to increase our prices by high double digits,” said Isaac Larian, CEO of California-based MGA Entertainment, which makes Bratz and L.O.L. Surprise! Dolls, among several other toys. “The life of my business, 46 years, is on the line.”

[...]

“There is no American factory anywhere that can make hair for dolls. What am I supposed to do? Sell bald dolls?” Larian said.

[...]

 

145% tariffs on China are clobbering the toy industry​

Toys made in China have been exempt from tariffs since President Donald Trump’s first term. That is no longer the case.

Last month, Trump raised tariff rates on China to 20%, dealing a big blow to the toy industry. But he didn’t stop there. Just a few weeks later, Trump was set to tack on an additional 34% “reciprocal” tariff. Then he tacked on another tariff, and another, and another.

Now, goods from China are being tariffed at a whopping 145% rate — and that number will likely keep growing as Beijing vows to continue retaliating against new tariffs and Trump threatens to do the same.

For American families, this means relatively inexpensive toys could become luxuries. That’s because nearly 80% of all toys sold in the US are manufactured in China, according to the Toy Association, a leading industry group.

“We have no choice but to increase our prices by high double digits,” said Isaac Larian, CEO of California-based MGA Entertainment, which makes Bratz and L.O.L. Surprise! Dolls, among several other toys. “The life of my business, 46 years, is on the line.”

[...]

“There is no American factory anywhere that can make hair for dolls. What am I supposed to do? Sell bald dolls?” Larian said.

[...]


I wouldn't be surprised if soon these toys might be supplied from Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The places that Xi Jinping will be visiting over the next few weeks.

These places may get some new factories, with silent partners owning them.

As John Bolton said (linked previously) Trump is no match for Xi Jinping, Putin or Kim Jong Un. He witnessed that himself.

imo
 
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Trump lacks an understanding of the history of China, especially the legacy of the 19th century, when European countries forced concessions on Chinese territory. This resulted in the Treaty ports, including Shanghai, Canton (old name) and many others - these were foreign territories on Chinese land. The opium trade, initiated by the British, also had a terrible effect on China. Study the Opium Wars. It is a parallel to fentanyl today, and perhaps Chinese leaders look at fentanyl as a strategic tool to undermine the US.

No Chinese politician of any stripe would allow Trump to humiliate them. For the last several years, China has emphasized what they consider the Century of Humiliation in the teaching of history. Trump has given fuel to this trend, and the relationship between the US and China will worsen to new lows.
 

Smartphones and computers are now exempt from Trump’s latest tariffs​



another day, another change

eta: it has now only become harder to produce electronics in the US, as there is still a tariff on the raw materials but the finished products can be shipped from china without a tariff
23% of imports from China are now exempt from tariffs. Makes you wonder what the point of all this is!

 

Smartphones and computers are now exempt from Trump’s latest tariffs​



another day, another change

eta: it has now only become harder to produce electronics in the US, as there is still a tariff on the raw materials but the finished products can be shipped from china without a tariff

Brilliant 🤣🤣 bets on what he’ll backtrack on next? He really is making himself look very silly indeed, like an impetuous child.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if soon these toys might be supplied from Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The places that Xi Jinping will be visiting over the next few weeks.

These places may get some new factories, with silent partners owning them.
That is already happening. Many of the clothing and other factories in countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are already owned by the Chinese.

They've also almost taken over the clothing, footwear and leatherwork industries in Italy and imported Chinese factory workers to work in them, so that they can send the goods to China and sell them as "made in Italy". How they were allowed to import tens of thousands of Chinese factory workers into the EU I have no idea unless backhanders were paid. The situation became much more widely known at the start of Covid when it became apparent that whole districts of some Italian cities were effectively Chinese enclaves. You may recall that when Covid arrived in Europe, it emerged first in Italy and there was much speculation that it had been brought in by Chinese workers returning to Italy after having gone back to China for Chinese New Year.
 
An astonishing amount of footwear sold in the US is from China or Vietnam. Something like 94%.

So everyone that wants their cheap Walmart shoes, their Sketchers, or Nikes, or Hodas, or Crocs had better buy them if they can find them.

I think it might occur to the MAGA crowd that there is a problem when the stores are all sold out of their brand, size.

There is just no way that these popular brands are going to be able to make shoes in the US that are anything less than 200% more expensive than what China or Vietnam is selling them for. Even with a 145% tariff, Chinese made shoes will be cheaper than anything the US can produce.
 
Posted by @Trooper in previous discussion
"Trump simply does not intuit how the Chinese think... I don't hold myself out as an expert.... but a short history lookup would tell Trump that the Chinese he is dealing with today were engineers and scientists before they were politicians.. .. that each member of the Commitee is a single child of single child parents, who were the single child of his grandparents.. .. no effort spared on education, specifically maths and science, and languages... sheltered and protected by parents and as the only grandchild , indulged up to a point, steered into achieving the very best outcome..

The Chinese pay terrific amounts to get their kids into Cambridge, or Oxford or MIT or Melbourne U or UCLA , they start saving at birth, and the grands kick in.,. They know from their parents how to endure, and overcome, and thrive...

There is no way, a Chinese person , a politician, would tell his constituents that they've been ripped off for years. . it makes people angry, but at the same time it makes them weak. Insipid and gullible, and helpless. He should know all this , know your enemy, but he seems to be completely ignorant of ANY nationality.. He is at a standstill, he has no idea how the Europeans think , or the Brits. or the South Africans, or the Japanese.. he is really blind to it all."
Bang-on regarding the USA inability to understand how other cultures think. The USA, for decades, holds the belief that they alone hold the keys to a great democratic lifestyle unmatched anywhere in the world. The USA has arrogantly believed it is entitled to impose their way of life on other societies, ignoring centuries of evolutionary culture that holds those societies together. For example, the USA has long criticized Canada's "freedom of expression" (respects the autonomy other others), declaring that "freedom of speech" (no regard for anyone) is superior.

Today, the President of the USA declares that there is no difference between Canadians and people in the USA, therefore the Canada-USA border: an arbitrary line drawn with a pencil defining the border, should be erased.

Many people in the USA unquestionably believe this based on a common language of English (with different spelling) and shared North American location. There is an undeniable disrespect, entitlement and rudeness from the USA towards Canadians and all they hold critical to quality of life. When Canadians stand up for themselves, the USA president and his supporters - unwilling to listen - resort to profanity and taunting.

People south of the border fail to appreciate Canadian values and culture. They want to metaphorically bulldoze Canadian culture because, according to them, the USA is superior. That absence of taking a moment to understand foreign cultures, like Canada, China, Japan, Europeans, Brits, or South Africans, is splashed out by the president of the USA on a daily basis, and few in the USA see the problem.

We see how that "freedom of speech" is working out for them today. They're terrified that if they cross the border, they will be detained and imprisoned for saying what they think. It well past the time that people in the USA should rethink whether their choices are indeed superior, and whether other cultures deserve respect. They should take a moment to understand other cultures, like Canada, before they decide we should live as they do.
 
An astonishing amount of footwear sold in the US is from China or Vietnam. Something like 94%.

So everyone that wants their cheap Walmart shoes, their Sketchers, or Nikes, or Hodas, or Crocs had better buy them if they can find them.

I think it might occur to the MAGA crowd that there is a problem when the stores are all sold out of their brand, size.

There is just no way that these popular brands are going to be able to make shoes in the US that are anything less than 200% more expensive than what China or Vietnam is selling them for. Even with a 145% tariff, Chinese made shoes will be cheaper than anything the US can produce.
I wonder whether cheap is associated with latest style, and whether there should be a shift towards quality rather than cool in the moment. I've been buying shoes from Germany for many years.

"Germany is home to many talented shoe manufacturers. The US, the UK, Italy, France, and several other countries import shoes from German shoemakers. They have a reputation for prioritizing comfort and quality over fashion."


"The footwear industry is an important traditional industry in Germany and there are many excellent and long-established German shoe manufacturers and companies. The German footwear market has a total revenue of USD 8.7 billion in 2020. By 2022, the German footwear market will have revenues of USD 10.83 billion. The market is expected to grow by 6.62% annually."

 
There is just no way that these popular brands are going to be able to make shoes in the US that are anything less than 200% more expensive than what China or Vietnam is selling them for. Even with a 145% tariff, Chinese made shoes will be cheaper than anything the US can produce.
That will be true at the cheap end of the market but it is possible to manufacture footwear in the developed world at prices that many people can afford.

All Hotter footwear is manufactured in the UK (and exported to the US). What makes it possible is that their factory in Lancashire is reported to be one of the most advanced footwear factories in the world, using technology to reduce manufacturing costs. Or at least it was a few years ago.


Obviously they are not in the teens and young adult market, but that's the market segment which tends to value cheap and throwaway over quality and durability.
 
Trump and his government are a massive lazy failure. They found one published paper that they believe supported global tariffs, acted on it, BUT they neglected to read the conclusions stating that tariffs are always bad, and the best outcome for the USA is no tariffs.

"Trump's top economic adviser, Stephen Miran, who helped craft the tariffs, made the case for them at a conservative research institute in Washington, D.C. The White House published a transcript of his remarks online, including a footnote to Pujolas's paper, which is the only academic research cited.

"More recent economic analyses ... show that by imposing tariffs against exporting countries, the U.S. can improve economic outcomes, raise revenues and impose huge losses for the tariffed nation, even with full retaliation," Miran said.
...

Pujolas and Rossbach used mathematical modelling to determine how trade imbalances impact a country's welfare ... "The intent of the papers was to understand the motivation — why this can happen and what are the consequences?" he said. What they found was if the U.S. had put specific tariffs on specific products from China (which didn't happen), "there was room for modest growth or gains at the large expense of China," Pujolas said.

That's the message the White House has seized on — the possible benefits it could gain, he said. But the paper comes to another conclusion, too. The best outcome globally would be no tariffs, Pujolas said.

"We want to avoid trade wars," said Pujolas. "Trade wars are bad always and everywhere."

 
That will be true at the cheap end of the market but it is possible to manufacture footwear in the developed world at prices that many people can afford.

All Hotter footwear is manufactured in the UK (and exported to the US). What makes it possible is that their factory in Lancashire is reported to be one of the most advanced footwear factories in the world, using technology to reduce manufacturing costs. Or at least it was a few years ago.


Obviously they are not in the teens and young adult market, but that's the market segment which tends to value cheap and throwaway over quality and durability.
It's interesting that USA generally values cheap, throwaway shoes/products that follow influencer trends, while some other countries and demographic groups value quality. Materialism pervades USA society today, something else that separates the USA from Canada. This pursuit of "cheap" leaves the USA particularly vulnerable to tariffs where all products of one type (shoes) are manufactured in one country (China).

Quality does not necessarily ignore style. Trippen, for example, is seen on international fashion runways, but it costs more to combine quality with style. A slight shift in USA culture from chasing what's cool today, to the pursuit of quality plus style, would also shift global markets to eliminate or reduce tariff tax vulnerability.
 
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