CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #26

[Tennlyn]

Tonight is the fundraiser in Monument, Colorado. I'm keeping all of those who truly love Dylan in my thoughts and prayers tonight.

Hope for Dylan! lease:

 

[SmoothOperator]

**my standard disclaimer of apologies for being behind and in catch up mode**

Hmmmm I don't know what to think of this. Does this guy know something? It's eerie that he keeps saying this wasn't supposed to go this far. The immunity is strange too. I honestly have no idea what to think. Does someone still have him? I would hope yes. But why? This leads me to think someone was to take Dylan, probably to scare ER and then after let him go? But they didn't do that.

Above BBM.. This IMO is exactly the desired affect of which the person(s) behind these continued posts are hoping to achieve.jmo

If LE thought this was the case they would be speaking out,not this guy! (ITA!) I'd like to believe any scenario that has Dylan alive. (again ITA and believe this to be true for ALL of us here) This just makes no sense to me. He could be trying to deflect attention away from a possible person of interest. (It is absolutely nonsensical to me as well..and your idea about intentional interferance and deflection is interesting at the very least, and IMO quite literally a possibility/probability at best.jmo)MOO

In response to MissJ's above post I'VE BBM the points of which my reply/comment are to immediately follow BOLDED&HIGHLIGHTED IN RED.

Wouldn't anything about immunity be through LE? You would have to have a discussion first with them, and probably lawyers too. You don't get immunity from talking in an email from someone who runs a FB page. Also, it's LE's decision whether someone gets immunity, not the criminal, and not someone who runs a FB page. And they are going to send out an immunity contract through email?!

So this idea that the person who supposedly kidnapped Dylan, and I guess is keeping him for conversation, should email the FB adminstrator, and then Dylan can come home, and this person won't be charged with anything....Well, there are no words.

This is not a movie!!

Above BBM in RED for emphasis.. yet it is exactly this over the top, Hollywood B-movie script gone from Bad to Really, Really Bad that IMO makes it glaringly obvious that for what ever reasons(and honestly those reasons can be any one of more in a wide range from complete and total self serving[for themselves, or for someone they are close to or care for]..to downright nefarious with zero good intent whatsoever..to even extremely naive, totally unrealistic talking off the top of their head with no nefarious intent, but rather in hopes of it drawing out the abductor/killer[ie.and exactly as I said EXTREMELY NAIVE and TOTALLY UNREALISTIC]

IMO regardless of which one or more of those wide range of reasons is the motive IMO the end result remains the same in that, if not for this having an innocent, young man as a victim at the heart of this case, then the ludicrous train of thought laid out in these continued posts would be comical and laughable.jmo

BBM - LE wouldn't even be allowed to offer it, they can't pick and choose who they charge with felonies. They investigate, arrest. It's up to the DA to charge or not and to make offers. But hey, if this "professional retired LE officer" truly believes that he has the power to contact LE in Durango and explain to them how things work.....................um nevermind, not going to happen.

As far as movie, what's the "secret password"? "the crow flies east at night"? :floorlaugh:

Exactly az! It IMO is bewildering to me that this continued line of posts is being allowed, and IMO therefor encouraged by the admin of this FMDR FB page??.. IMO it does so much greater damage as opposed to it in any way whatsoever being beneficial to Dylan's being found AND brought home!..jmo, tho.

I'm almost embarrassed for the Admin of that page. I can't believe they have that there. Who exactly is giving this person holding Dylan immunity? President Obama? The FBI? La Plata County Sheriff? Oh wait... the Admin of a Facebook page and a retired cop are!

Exactly where I was going in my above post of reply to azgrandma...it honestly just truly has me scratching my head?!?:waitasec:

While you guys are critical of this offer, I find it to be shrewd and calculating. If someone contacts him, that's the single biggest lead they could ever hope to obtain at this point. And it's traceable. He knows full well that he can't give someone immunity, but that doesn't mean he can't say it's possible. And since he is retired LE, he isn't bound by what he says.

IMO I believe the above is just not even near accurate in describing what this individual is doing(whether intentional or not).. IMO his actions/behaviors IMO will absolutely have people tuning the FB page out altogether by continuing to push this train of thought seriously, repeatedly, and not allowing anyone to question the entire silliness, nonsensical issues of which this train of thought is even based upon...MOO is "silliness" is not at all in any way whatsoever going to "draw out" the "bad guys" who are going to miraculously set up this super secret means of communicating with a man who is offering something(ie. Immunity) of which any single person with a mere, one-fourth of an intact brain cell, knows is just an all out load of BS.. the gig is up immediately, before the "bad guy" with LESS than one-fourth of an intact brain cell even contemplates this man's "offer"..jmo.

This perp would have to be one stupid person. Sorry but I don't see any sane person falling for this. Of course, there is the slight chance this person isn't sane. I guess?

Respectfully snipped by me to emphasize that your initial opinion expressed here IMO is accurate and dead on..as I referred to in my above post I just merely used, "an individual
with LESS than one-fourth of an intact brain cell" substituted for, "stupid person" in describing what type individual would find this "offer" believable, real, AND NOT laughable.

Because clearly kidnappers are the most intelligent, sane, and rational folks who think out their crimes with such clarity and conviction that they have an almost encyclopedic understanding of the law and legal system. Cunning folks, those kidnappers are.
Yeah, well it wouldn't make much sense if it were based on any other assumptions, no?

IMO I personally believe you'd be, I'd be, anyone would be hard pressed to actually find an individual of adult age that honestly believes this "offer" to genuinely have merit..but jmo.

Well maybe you're right? I guess it's more than anyone else is attempting to do at this point.

Naa.. always go with that first impression as you relayed in the post I replied to above..lol..IMO you hit the nail on the head right off the bat..lol.

Regarding the FB messages, anyone with information about Dylan - or ANY missing person - should contact LE or crimestoppers or a bonafide organization associated with LE. There is no guarantee that someone soliciting info is not using it to make sure info doesn't get to LE or for their own use. I'm very suspicious of this person.

ITA belimom and you again bring up what's been my concern since this individual emerged and has since only found IMO encouragement by allowing the nonsensical claims to continue to be publicly posted on sweet Dylan's FB dedicated to his being MISSING..

P.S. glad you decided to rejoin us here in Dylan's threads..its a frustrating situation that many have been drawn to and vested in some ways with desperately wanting to see him found&any involved to have swift/firm justice served on their azzes..

How many missing persons who are abducted for 2+ months are found alive?

Those statistics about missing children count child custody cases, runaways, children who were thought to be missing because they went to a friend's house, etc.

I don't get why JK is posting that 99% of missing children come home alive. You would think that as a former LE officer, he would know exactly what the statistics mean. How many children who are being held by someone for 2+ months are found alive?

Thanks for bringing this full circle, back around to the basis of which this individuals claims are derived from being absolutely faulty and inaccurate to begin with...yea, the 99% statement IMO just further draws into question the validity, truth, or even the most basic of common sense that this individual is working with in his/her mental capabilities AND functioning.. jmo.

The statistics are broken down by category - runaways, family abductions, non-family abductions, stereotypical kidnappings.

What do the statistics mean to your understanding in relation to Dylan's case?

Obviously Im not Eileen{and due to my being behind she's likely to have already long since replied so just scroll/roll if that's the case} but I see it having less to do with her(Eileen's) understanding , but rather more to do with this [unusual person]'s understanding. Jmo.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

As a former LE officer, he should know that the "99% of missing children are found alive" statistic does not apply to children who have been missing for 2+ months OR to children who fit in this category (the one Dylan might be in):



In those abductions, 40% of children come home alive. Not 99%. Now out of those 40%...How many were held by their abductor for over 2 months?

Your quote says "involving a child transported 50 or more miles." What are the statistics involving children who are not transported that far away?

 

[The Cheese]

As a former LE officer, he should know that the "99% of missing children are found alive" statistic does not apply to children who have been missing for 2+ months OR to children who fit in this category (the one Dylan might be in):



In those abductions, 40% of children come home alive. Not 99%. Now out of those 40%...How many were held by their abductor for over 2 months?

Oh my. I never thought Dylan was in the stereotypical kidnapping category. They're almost as rare as the number of children killed by their fathers. In terms of abduction I've thought in terms of family and non-family abduction in regards to Dylan.

Do you have a copy of the statistics with length of time missing, or the name of a document I can look up?

 

[Seajay]

I haven't been able to find out much about that case. Did LE know all along that he was a runaway?

Yes, they knew. He packed two backpacks and left. He didn't like the rules of the house and some other things apparently so he left.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Your quote says "involving a child transported 50 or more miles." What are the statistics involving children who are not transported that far away?

I think the "children transported 50 miles or more" is just ONE example of stereotypical abductions. Jessica Lunsford was not taken 50 miles or more, but she would still be a stereotypical abduction.

 

[jjenny]

I'm almost embarrassed for the Admin of that page. I can't believe they have that there. Who exactly is giving this person holding Dylan immunity? President Obama? The FBI? La Plata County Sheriff? Oh wait... the Admin of a Facebook page and a retired cop are!

We don't even know if such persons (the supposed kidnapper and supposed kidnapper supposed accomplice) exist.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Oh my. I never thought Dylan was in the stereotypical kidnapping category. They're almost as rare as the number of children killed by their fathers. In terms of abduction I've thought in terms of family and non-family abduction in regards to Dylan.

Do you have a copy of the statistics with length of time missing, or the name of a document I can look up?

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

There were an estimated 58,200 child victims of nonfamily abduction, defined more broadly to include
all nonfamily perpetrators (friends and acquaintances
as well as strangers) and crimes involving lesser
amounts of forced movement or detention in addition
to the more serious crimes entailed in stereotypical
kidnappings.

Unless Dylan was kidnapped by someone he knows on a better level than an acquaintance...I do not see how he wouldn't be a stereotypical abduction. It seems that just being held for 2 months would make his case an stereotypical abduction.

I cannot find much about length of time. Only 10% of stereotypical abductions and non-family abductions last more than 24 hours. I have no idea what the statistics are for children coming home alive after being held for 2 months are.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

I think the "children transported 50 miles or more" is just ONE example of stereotypical abductions. Jessica Lunsford was not taken 50 miles or more, but she would still be a stereotypical abduction.

So the 99% of missing children being found alive could be an accurate statement.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

So the 99% of missing children being found alive could be an accurate statement.

But 90% of missing children in non-family abductions are found within 24 hours. In 53% of cases, the parents don't even contact police. Since Dylan has been missing for two months, the "99% are found alive" does seem that cut and dry to me. Are 99% of children who are held by their abductor for 2+ months found alive?

Also, IMO, if Dylan has been abducted, I believe it is not by someone he knows well, putting him in the stereotypical abduction category.

In most cases we hear about where the victim comes home after being abducted for a period of time, the abductor is a stranger to the victim, or a very slight acquaintance (Elizabeth Smart case). I think it would be very hard to hide a victim for months, when you have a direct connection to them.

 

[Darcyline]

The way I understand it is that the figure includes anything that could be considered a missing child case including kids who disappear for two hours because they have a fight with Mom and custody fights. So, to hold onto that statistic with Dylan I feel like we have to say an adult in the family is hiding him out somewhere OR he ran away. I am having trouble buying either.

 

[The Cheese]

The 99% is referring to all missing children including runaways which is the biggest category. You really do have to look at the categories individually, unless JK has something in mind that I can't think of. I really don't understand what he's doing. I hope Dylan's parents and the admin are talking with LE about it and have checked this guy out.

 

[LotusPawprint]

Thought I'd check in, I know nothing new has happened... sadly. I got dizzy from running around in circles but I hope the people working the case are circling round and closing in on the involved. It must be an awful feeling to harm a child, physically or otherwise. I wonder if the person who hurt Dylan intended to hurt him, or it was accidental, or Dylan was just a pawn. Maybe the person who hurt Dylan doesn't feel awful about what he did. If there's NO evidence of a crime connecting this perp to what he did to Dylan, something else will have to smoke this person out of their rat hole other than feeling guilty for their actions. Not sure what that will take, but Dylan deserves that and so much more.
Those who love him need this sweet child back, they need answers and justice.

 

[MrsPC]

sorry if this has already been posted

http://www.coloradoconnection.com/news/story.aspx?id=849266#.UPi3NCdEHys

Elaine said the search continues to be hindered by Dylan's Father. She said he will not speak to her about Dylan's disappearance.

"My gut feeling is that Dylan's dad had something to do or knows something more than he's giving information about," she said. "I wish he would talk to us but he won't do that."

 

[eileenhawkeye]

On the FB page, they are saying they are going to saturate social media state-by-state. First is Arizona. Are they doing one state a day? So some people won't find out about Dylan for another 50 days? Why don't they just tell everyone to saturate social media in their own state? Also, why are they saying they especially want to reach Southern Arizona?

And weren't they saying on the FB page that Dylan is being held by someone? So why do they need to reach out to every state? How far away do they think he could be?

 

[PaulR]

I don't know what's going on with this. I hope ER, MR, the facebook admin, somebody has asked LE to check up on this guy and this 'effort'. I would not like to see anyone interfering with the investigation or leading the family down the yellow brick road.

I'm a skeptical person, and this thing (not even sure what to call it) makes me uncomfortable. Looks like I'm not at all alone in feeling leery about this.

Also, if the perp acted alone, then they may believe this poster and think that LE has absolutely no clue about who took Dylan or where he is.

 

[scorekeeper]

sorry if this has already been posted

http://www.coloradoconnection.com/news/story.aspx?id=849266#.UPi3NCdEHys

Elaine said the search continues to be hindered by Dylan's Father. She said he will not speak to her about Dylan's disappearance.

"My gut feeling is that Dylan's dad had something to do or knows something more than he's giving information about," she said. "I wish he would talk to us but he won't do that."

BBM

And my gut feeling is the same!!! :banghead::banghead:

 

[PaulR]

On the FB page, they are saying they are going to saturate social media state-by-state. First is Arizona. Are they doing one state a day? So some people won't find out about Dylan for another 50 days? Why don't they just tell everyone to saturate social media in their own state? Also, why are they saying they especially want to reach Southern Arizona?

And weren't they saying on the FB page that Dylan is being held by someone? So why do they need to reach out to every state? How far away do they think he could be?

I agree; this seems like not a particularly good idea. They have limited resources and trying to saturate every state means they won't be focusing on where he is most likely being held assuming a kidnapping - the four state area.

Could his kidnappers traveled to any of the 50 states by now? Sure, they could have done that the first day. By now they could be anywhere in the world. That's not likely IMHO.

On Southern Arizona: they may be thinking that someone took Dylan across the Mexican border. But that is much harder than it used to be, at least at official border crossings. Sure a kidnapper could have hired someone to cross the border illegally, but in that case they would have kept their head down and anyone involved in that kind of activity is not talking.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

"My gut feeling is that Dylan's dad had something to do or knows something more than he's giving information about," she said. "I wish he would talk to us but he won't do that."

This is an interesting juxtapose. On one hand you accuse MR of having something to do with Dylan's disappearance, then on another you wonder why he won't talk to you.

http://www.coloradoconnection.com/news/story.aspx?id=849266#.UPi5t2f-jG9

 

[eileenhawkeye]

What would be the reason why someone, besides a sexual predator, would "hold" Dylan for two months? It seems that JK's plan revolves around the belief that the abductor is not some sicko, that he made a very bad "mistake", that he is simply a sad person.