Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #15

[Henry2326]

Covid-19 mortality rate is 1.4 per cent, Hong Kong researchers say Covid-19 mortality rate is 1.4 per cent, Hong Kong researchers say #coronavirus #covid19 #wuhanpneumonia Novel Coronavirus - COVID19 on Twitter

 

[Amonet]

I want to share your optimism and I hope you’re right. However, flu viruses are already all over the world to the point that they can predict where they will go. This virus is new and not yet everywhere.

Also, if 56,000 die per year from the flu or so, that’s in 12 months. We had over 3,000 deaths in two months in China alone. And mostly only in one province. That’s a super small territory compared to the globe. So this has the potential of being insanely destructive. Millions of people dead if not contained.

Finally, we are reading direct statements from actual health officials and leaders. Not from the media. I mean we are hearing from the CDC that the elderly should self-isolate a bit, etc. And regions are shutting down schools and mass events. That’s not the media creating that.

What I am thinking is that Hubei province has a population of about 58 million, just a little bit less than the UK as a whole.

Wuhan is probably similar to London as compared to the UK, with a population of about 9 million in central Wuhan, same as London, UK.

And what we can see for the Wuhan/Hubei figures is a curve that's only occurred in that way due to extreme social distancing measures (almost total lockdown and almost every household barely leaving the house other than for shopping once or twice a week).

So, does that mean that epidemiologically, Wuhan/Hubei could be an approximate model for what might happen as far as spread/cases in London and the greater UK?

And Hubei has had about 80 thousand cases even with the severe lockdown. We are unlikely to have such severe measures here, due to us not being a communist country, and because we don't want a double peak with the second peak occurring during the next winter flu season.

Yeah, it might be like having the flu for the vast majority of people. But on the larger level, this does have the potential to be quite a serious epidemic.

Even the relatively low (compared to the overall population) figure of 80,000 confirmed cases, if that happened in the UK over a three month period, would cause struggles in the hospitals. It's not something to take too lightly on that level, even if for most people it will be about as bad as the flu, or maybe not even that bad.

It's not going to wipe out 60% of our population like the Black Death. But it can still cause significant difficulties even with a 1% death rate across all age groups.

 

[SAMS]

“I just saw 2 ladies argue over the last bottle of handsanitizer at a dollar store in Rockville, Maryland.
Some grocery stores are sold out.
I drove to the dollar store to buy a some more bottles & disinfectant wipes. A new shipment arrived & it soldout in 5 minutes #coronavirus”

https://twitter.com/shomaristone/status/1236357995442966528?s=21

 

[weepingangel]

totally ot

Zdoggmd does numerous medical parodies. Most are lol worthy imo

Despite my fears and the death and misery I have to admit I laughed. No offense meant to anyone who has suffered!

 

[Henry2326]

NEW: British Columbia reports 6 new cases of coronavirus, including 2 former passenger of the Grand Princess and 2 people linked to a care home in Vancouver Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[dotr]

Well, our government better do something. Daily Pence updates aren't doing anything to stop the spread.

It will be interesting to see if in 2 weeks or so, the whole US is on lockdown, speculation, imo fwiw.

 

[BingoBongo]

I've been following this thread for a few days. Thank you to all who have done so much research!!! Invaluable info. here!

My concerns:

Too many people sticking their heads in the sand, due to fear, possibly cancellation of vacations/travel. Social media has created a monster in this respect. I cannot believe the crap I am reading in regards to "no worse than a cold", "it's just the flu".

Allergy season is beginning, will most likely complicate matters due to some thinking "it's just allergies" and the potential physical issues with this virus AND allergies at the same time.

We truly have no idea how many have been infected. There is no way to know for sure. Between lack of testing, and those who just don't present, it's just not possible. I suspect the numbers, worldwide, are MUCH greater than reported.

Very little immunity after infection. Appears a person can get it twice. If it is causing irreversible lung damage the first time, the 2nd time could be deadly.

Even dear, CHRISTIAN friends are posting that "it only kills the elderly and those with compromised health". Wow. Our humanity is seriously lacking.

 

[otto]

Hospitals warn they can’t cope if coronavirus outbreak worsens in Canada

"federal officials are trying to assure Canadians it's all under control
"but we know as experts and as people that work in the system, it's not all under control""

That's quite a grim overview of the situation in Canada, where there may be a 10 week delay for protective gear for frontline workers. I have to wonder how governments could be so careless regarding preparation for this virus. Every day they stand in front of the cameras claiming everything is under control, but as soon as there's a handful of cases, frontline people are crying for basic equipment.

 

[SAMS]

WEEKS?! Omg

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1236358704489955328?s=21


VP Mike Pence: "We trust in a matter of weeks the coronavirus test will be broadly available to the public."

 

[SAMS]

CNN on Twitter

A Starbucks employee in downtown Seattle tested positive for the coronavirus, leading to the store's closure for a deep cleaning, the company said

 

[gitana1]

Aren't you in California? We most certainly do.

Yes! I’m in CA. But we don’t have a federally mandated program. And in CA this is what we have:

The amount of sick leave an employee can accrue per year depends on the individual's paid sick leave plan. At a minimum, California law requires 24 hours (or 3 days) of paid sick leave per year for full-time employees. Employees earn a minimum of 1 hour of paid leave for every 30 hours worked.4

An employee is entitled to begin using accrued paid sick time beginning on the 90th day of employment.5

Paid sick leave can also be carried over to the next year if an employee does not use their sick leave. However, employers can put a cap on the total amount of accrued sick leave at 48 hours or 6 days. 6

So employers can get away with only providing sick pay for three days per year, after an employee has been employed for 90 days.

That’s nothing.

And since we don’t have laws mandating paid bereavement leave, family caregiver leave, domestic violence leave, serious illness leave, etc., like Canada does, that means that sick days are often used for other things leaving people not able to use them for a cold or whatever.

In this country, in our state, most people can not afford to stay home when sick unless they’re part of a union.

 

[Windsorite]

The nasal swab risk is transmission to the clinicians giving the test
.

I saw a MSM report yesterday that apparently it isn’t uncommon for the person performing the test to get sneezed on. I’ll note IMO since I’ve looked for the link and unfortunately can’t seem to come up with it ATM

 

[What if...]

I would hazard a guess we don’t know yet. Maybe it will take a series of vaccines to build up immunity to appropriate levels, maybe it will require a booster at yearly or longer intervals. I’m thinking about all the other vaccines we get in series in last our lifetime, or require boosters every 10 years or sooner for exposure (although tetanus is bacterial so not the best comparison) or they aren’t positive how long they last like the rabies vaccine I had, I would have to get titer tested to be sure it was still effective after a certain point. Just because I had rabies vaccine once doesn’t mean I’m good for rest of my life (must be careful catching strays).

ETA: maybe it will continue to change and require yearly vaccinations like influenza.

Scientists may be able to develop a vaccine with some lasting impact, but I’ve not seen where this specific question has been addressed.

However, I do think longevity of a vaccine will be one of the challenges. Human immunity to corona viruses is fairly short lived. I’ve seen it stated that once a person recovers from a coronavirus, we only retain the natural antibodies for approximately 2 months. This could help explain the reinfections that appear to be occurring in Hubei.
Still a lot of unknowns...

 

[gitana1]

WEEKS?! Omg
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1236358704489955328?s=21
The Hill on Twitter


VP Mike Pence: "We trust in a matter of weeks the coronavirus test will be broadly available to the public."

Geez. This is so bad:

Exclusive: The Strongest Evidence Yet That America Is Botching Coronavirus Testing

 

[Amonet]

I’m confused. I thought the universal name for this was COVID-19.

Even Dr John Campbell complained about the confusing nature of this in his videos, and he's a good doctor!

The nomenclature of this is more like how the HIV virus can go on to cause the condition of AIDS

So the Sars-Cov2 virus can go on to cause the condition of Covid-19

The simplest way for us laypeople to talk about it is just to say that the Covid-19 virus causes Covid-19. But in medical documents/journals you'll probably see the virus being called Sars-Cov2, while the illness is called Covid-19.

I would also encourage media organisations and individuals to not use terms like Wuhan flu as that can potentially create confusion for people who don't really understand that it's the influenza virus that causes flu, and a different, unrelated virus, that causes the Covid-19.

 

[Henry2326]

It will be interesting to see if in 2 weeks or so, the whole US is on lockdown, speculation, imo fwiw.

Or the virus is running unabated through the country like it's doing in WA, CA, and OR right now.....and probably NYC and FL.

 

[Henry2326]

MADERA COUNTY, Calif. (KSEE/KGPE) — A Madera County couple who returned from a recent cruise have been reported to be the Central Valley’s first confirmed case of coronavirus, according to the Madera County Department of Public Health.

Madera County health officials said Saturday that they first received word about the cases after state health officials told them to begin monitoring a husband and wife returning from a recent Princess Cruise, said Sara Bosse, Public Health Director.

Madera County reports 1st confirmed coronavirus case in Central Valley

The couple remained isolated in their Madera County home.

 

[Henry2326]

“Dan Wattendorf hopes that people with bearable illnesses will stay at home and order the kit, instead of going to hospitals where they could transmit the virus — or catch it. And if people test positive but aren’t feeling terrible, says Wattendorf, they can isolate themselves.’’

Dr Kevin Purcell on Twitter

 

[Henry2326]

A Costco in Los Angeles
Steve Lookner on Twitter

Here’s my video of the line at the Costco on Los Feliz Boulevard (I had to cut off, the line keeps going) Emily Alpert Reyes on Twitter

Emily Alpert Reyes on Twitter

 

[gitana1]

What I am thinking is that Hubei province has a population of about 58 million, just a little bit less than the UK as a whole.

Wuhan is probably similar to London as compared to the UK, with a population of about 9 million in central Wuhan, same as London, UK.

And what we can see for the Wuhan/Hubei figures is a curve that's only occurred in that way due to extreme social distancing measures (almost total lockdown and almost every household barely leaving the house other than for shopping once or twice a week).

So, does that mean that epidemiologically, Wuhan/Hubei could be an approximate model for what might happen as far as spread/cases in London and the greater UK?

And Hubei has had about 80 thousand cases even with the severe lockdown. We are unlikely to have such severe measures here, due to us not being a communist country, and because we don't want a double peak with the second peak occurring during the next winter flu season.

Yeah, it might be like having the flu for the vast majority of people. But on the larger level, this does have the potential to be quite a serious epidemic.

Even the relatively low (compared to the overall population) figure of 80,000 confirmed cases, if that happened in the UK over a three month period, would cause struggles in the hospitals. It's not something to take too lightly on that level, even if for most people it will be about as bad as the flu, or maybe not even that bad.

It's not going to wipe out 60% of our population like the Black Death. But it can still cause significant difficulties even with a 1% death rate across all age groups.

Yes. But what people don’t seem to realize is these are numbers in addition to the flu and other illnesses that cause hospitalizations and deaths.

So the impact to our population and medical systems is going to be huge.

And listen, I was one on here early on saying “we have many more deaths from the flu. I think there’s too much hysteria about this.” But now that it’s clearly a pandemic and not as limited as SARS, I realize the seriousness.