Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #72

[tresir2012]

I believe that it is displayed as a range, using the coloured marker. From the top range down to the bottom range.
It is not clear why there is a range though. Possibly incorporating different areas within the various states?
Very confusing graphs ... not clear at all .... and all different depending on which of their graphs you look at for the exact same data.

I think the circled state initials are an averaged point of the range of the R0.

So some areas in the state have a high R0, and some areas have a lower R0, then that R0 is averaged across the state.

I interpret the circles and the bar as going from highest on the right to the lowest on the left. The circled states that are red are currently above R0 and those that are green are below R0. The graphs for each state are over time I believe. But MOO.

 

[Amonet]

Ugh.

“Osterholm’s viewpoint is sobering. The 67-year-old expects the novel coronavirus to be present for the rest of his life. He doesn’t believe the wave theory (a first wave, a lull, followed by other waves) will apply to this pandemic. “That’s not what’s happening here,” he told MarketWatch in an interview.

MarketWatch: One of the things I’m pretty interested in is the talk and the hope around a vaccine. Do you think we have misconceptions about what it means when we have a vaccine?

Michael Osterholm: Everyone is looking at the vaccine as being a light switch: on or off. And I look at it as a rheostat, that’s going to take a long time, from turning it on from its darkest position to a lightest position. If you’re anticipating a light switch, you’re going to be concerned, confused, and in some cases very disappointed in what it might look like in those first days to months with a vaccine.

MarketWatch: I saw a piece in The Atlantic this week and I thought they positioned it well. They described it as the beginning of the end.

Osterholm: It won’t be. We will be dealing with this virus forever. Effective and safe vaccines and hopefully ones with some durability will be very important, even critical tools, in fighting it. But the whole world is going to be experiencing COVID-19 ‘til the end of time. We’re not going to be vaccinating our way out of this to eight-plus billion people in the world right now. And if we don’t get durable immunity, we’re potentially looking at revaccination on a routine basis, if we can do that. We’ve really got to come to grips with actually living with this virus, for at least my lifetime, and at the same time, it doesn’t mean we can’t do a lot about it.”

—-

Here’s the other article mentioned:

A Vaccine Reality Check

I would say the rheostat comparison is very likely. As it says there, the vaccine will come out in dribs and drabs and take time to cover entire populations of countries. And there will be very difficult decisions to be made on which order to vaccinate different groups of people.

But what he's ultimately describing is something like how we live with flu. How we didn't used to have vaccinations, and now we do. Not everyone has a flu shot, and I think more people will need to take the Covid vaccination in order to get the 'herd immunity' effect as well as possible. And, just like there are sometimes outbreaks of measles, there will surely still be some outbreaks of Covid, as not everyone will get vaccinated, and then we might need to have regular vaccination programs similar to the yearly flu vaccinations or the old ten-yearly tetanus boosters.

Perhaps a vision of a vaccine coming out in the next year and being a simple 'magic bullet' is overly simplistic, as it will take a long time to roll it out through the healthcare staff, the more vulnerable populations, and then into general populations. But each stage of that will be an improvement, especially getting it into the more vulnerable populations, and then into the over-50s.

 

[Legally Bland]

UK

Posted at 12:1812:18
Easing of restrictions to be delayed
Venues that had been due to open tomorrow will not do so until at least 15 August. These include bowling alleys, skating rinks and casinos, Boris Johnson says.

Changes to wedding celebrations will also be postponed, he adds.

...

12:29
UK 'has reached the limits of opening up' safely
Chief medical officer Chris Whitty is asked if it is safe for schools to open in the autumn.

He said it is a "difficult balancing act" but "we have probably reached or neared the limits of what we can do in terms of opening up society".

The "idea that we can open up everything and keep the virus under control" is wrong, he said, but it is clear that "schools are an absolute priority" for society.

Coronavirus: UK PM gives briefing as England easing delayed - BBC News

 

[Legally Bland]

Updating this post from 10 July -

US Daily Coronavirus Cases Will Hit 240,000 By November If Masks Not Used, Restrictions Eased

At current rates, projection show that by Nov. 1 the United States will report a worst case 240,000 infections per day and would have recorded more than 215,000 coronavirus deaths since January.

According to the latest estimate released Wednesday by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the number of coronavirus cases per day can top 260,000 by Election Day, Nov. 3, if states continue to reopen — as some of them now insist on doing.

IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray predicts more than 208,000 people will die by November from COVID-19, considering the rising opposition in some states to reimposing restrictions.

Reopening schools in the fall regardless of the COVID-19 severity in each location, which is what the Trump administration wants, will also add to the overall fatality and daily case count.

“Many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October,” Murray told Politico.

Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #67

- Projection from University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of deaths by 1 Nov. has risen from 215,000 to 230,000.



IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

[tresir2012]

I have mentioned this before, if you filter those results to look at the Top Ten latest numbers (using the filter on the right), the results are very different.

Something is wrong with their figures/graphs and can't be deemed as reliable. imo

I have put a screenshot of the Top Ten graph here, for those who can't find the filter.

View attachment 257681

Rt COVID-19

The top ten filter doesn't show for me on my phone. But I did look individually at the graphs for Az, Ca, Tx, Fl and NY before I posted and they were all showing below 1. I will check them again today.

ETA I just looked again at the individual graphs for 7/29 for those states and they are still all showing below 1 which is supposed to mean fewer cases.

Good isn't it. Our military are actually assisting with medicos and paramedics, with testing, with ensuring quarantined people are staying at home and understand their obligations.

Their friendly unarmed assistance is sure comforting to us. Instead of sitting in their barracks they are on the ground assisting their Australian people, wherever a state leader asks for it (after the Prime Minister has approved it, of course).

The military are calling it Operation COVID-19 ASSIST.
Our tax dollars hard at work, helping us.

View attachment 257678
The guys in blue are police.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-manage-hotel-quarantine-20200624-p555q1.html

View attachment 257679
Defence Connect

Yes it is good. We had the military helping in UK too with ambulance driving and putting up temporary hospitals.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I don’t know much about NAC. just briefly heard something. Probably from you!

Dr. Seheult, who many here have been following since January, has been talking about NAC for months, since April. Here are a few of his videos on NAC and how/why it assists.

April

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May

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July

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[dixiegirl1035]

Good isn't it. Our military are actually assisting with medicos and paramedics, with testing, with ensuring quarantined people are staying at home and understand their obligations.

Their friendly unarmed assistance is sure comforting to us. Instead of sitting in their barracks they are on the ground assisting their Australian people, wherever a state leader asks for it (after the Prime Minister has approved it, of course).

The military are calling it Operation COVID-19 ASSIST.
Our tax dollars hard at work, helping us.

View attachment 257678
The guys in blue are police.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-manage-hotel-quarantine-20200624-p555q1.html

View attachment 257679
Defence Connect

Yes, it was announced this week that the United States Military would be in charge of distributing/vaccine administration/ shots when it rolls out.

We'll see, as there has been so many statements that haven't been followed through/happened that were promised. MOO

 

[dixiegirl1035]

This article is referring to restauranteurs in Orange County in Southern California.
Local restaurateurs do what they must to survive in the coronavirus era – Orange County Register

I used to watch Restaurant Impossible, a show in the US where a chef goes in to help owners. He started a new "pandemic series" where he has travelled for 30 days with a skeleton crew of 12 staff on two buses to aid folks he helped in the show which are going down due to COVID. Website and takeout were biggies. The one I watched had neither before his crew got to them to help with such.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Scotland advises against travel to virus hotspots in the north of England

Scotland has advised against travel to virus hotspots in the north of England after new restrictions were imposed in several areas.

People in Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire are now banned from meeting others from different households indoors, following a rise in infections.

The Scottish government said citizens should only travel to these areas if "absolutely essential".

People already staying in the affected areas do not need to return to Scotland early but should monitor themselves for coronavirus symptoms.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: "We have always been clear that localised flare-ups are likely as we continue to suppress the virus but by responding quickly and appropriately we can limit the effect these have on wider transmission.

"I strongly advise anyone planning to travel to areas affected in the north of England, or anyone planning to travel to Scotland from those same areas, to cancel their plans."

The news comes after the UK saw its highest daily total of COVID-19 cases for more than a month.

The R number has risen in England to between 0.8-0.9, while it is estimated to be between 0.8-1.1 in the North West.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has told Sky News the new restrictions, which affect around four million people, are "absolutely necessary".

The order covers:

• All of Greater Manchester: Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan
• East Lancashire: Pendle, Hyndburn, Burnley, Rossendale and Blackburn with Darwen
• West Yorkshire: Bradford, Calderdale and Kirklees
• The city of Leicester, which saw the UK's first local lockdown

It means people in these areas will not be permitted to mix with other households (apart from those in their support bubbles) in private homes or gardens.

It is understood there is currently no endpoint to the restrictions but they will be subject to a weekly review.

Some exemptions will be put in place, including for the vulnerable.

The government will sign new regulations to make these changes legally enforceable.

The regulations will give local authorities and police forces the powers to enforce these restrictions and more details on these will be set out when the regulations are published.

 

[tresir2012]

Sturgeon rebuked over England virus comparison

 

[MajorHoople]

Main coronavirus test produces ‘false negatives’ at least 20% of the time, study shows

"If you have 30 per cent false-negatives, then right now, at this moment, you're in trouble, he said" - Benoit Barbeau, Universite du Quebec a Montreal wrt study

ACP Journals

That's interesting. It seems the main Covid test is flawed too.

Quote: "As of Tuesday, Canada had completed roughly two million COVID-19 tests and identified 96,636 positive cases, meaning there’s been about 1.9 million negative tests so far.

Based on Kucirka’s findings, at least 24,159 of these negative test results could be false-negatives. Depending on when the tests were done during the course of a possible infection cycle, the number of false-negatives may be even higher."

“That is scary,” said Benoit Barbeau, a virologist at the Université du Québec à Montréal when referring to the study."

 

[CSIDreamer]

That's interesting. It seems the main Covid test is flawed too.

Quote: "As of Tuesday, Canada had completed roughly two million COVID-19 tests and identified 96,636 positive cases, meaning there’s been about 1.9 million negative tests so far.

Based on Kucirka’s findings, at least 24,159 of these negative test results could be false-negatives. Depending on when the tests were done during the course of a possible infection cycle, the number of false-negatives may be even higher."

“That is scary,” said Benoit Barbeau, a virologist at the Université du Québec à Montréal when referring to the study."

I've heard the rapid flu tests aren't all that accurate as well. I think we need to work on accuracy here. Jmo

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Lockdown rules mean 'spirit of Eid has gone'

This is such bad news for UK Muslims in areas affected, which are typically high minority population areas anyway.

I really, really hope people heed the warnings and follow the guidelines but unfortunately I think many won't.

 

[Simply Southern]

Yes, it was announced this week that the United States Military would be in charge of distributing/vaccine administration/ shots when it rolls out.

We'll see, as there has been so many statements that haven't been followed through/happened that were promised. MOO

I remember the polio vaccine national distribution. It was a federal initiative, distributed by the national guards on the state and local level.

My whole family went, it was a big deal. Mom talked about what a blessing these little cubes of sugar were.
I remember going to our elementary school, seeing all my friends with their family. The tables full of sugar cubes and little cups of juice. It was a happy event, the national guard were friendly and helped entertain us as we waited inline.

We have come a long way since then. Now we have drive by flu shot clinics, pharmacies, schools, providing flu vaccine distribution.

I see many avenues to provide distribution. If the government didn't handle the distribution, moo, we would see huge inequality. Moo....the wealthy, major sports teams, businesses would contract with private distributors to purchase, as we see with testing.

All my opinion.....

 

[MimosaMornings]

Lockdown rules mean 'spirit of Eid has gone'

This is such bad news for UK Muslims in areas affected, which are typically high minority population areas anyway.

I really, really hope people heed the warnings and follow the guidelines but unfortunately I think many won't.

Had the area improved that much they thought people gathering together indoors was safe? I thought things were on a sliding scale, moving as the numbers go up or down.
I know the holidays this year will not be the traditional gathering of my family, I just don’t see things drastically improving in the next few months.

 

[Tadpole12]

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Osterholm, Meet the Press, June 21st his predictions were short term,
Didn't see it slowing down this Summer or Fall.

 

[SouthAussie]

Lockdown rules mean 'spirit of Eid has gone'

This is such bad news for UK Muslims in areas affected, which are typically high minority population areas anyway.

I really, really hope people heed the warnings and follow the guidelines but unfortunately I think many won't.

As Eid al-Adha is a time when the muslim communities also donate food and supplies to people in need, the Aussie muslims in lockdown have organised this year to do a drive-through donation service.



"We thought rather than having a celebration, which of course we can't … we decided to give back to the community," said Abdulah Hamimi, a volunteer at PGCC.
This year, the centre has decided to distribute gifts ahead of Eid in a way they haven't done before: via a drive-through.

On Tuesday night, volunteers passed hampers filled with essential foods, including rice and oil, hand sanitisers, masks, lollies and toys to families through car windows and boots.

He said at least 150 families had registered to receive Eid hampers this year, including many who are not eligible for the Government's JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments.
"People tell us … 'I'm a single mum, I take care of my children, I take care of my parents, and I've got no support from the Government.' That really motivates us [to do this]," Mr Hamimi said.

'Difficult and sad': Australian Muslims will celebrate 'sacrifice' Eid in isolation amid COVID-19

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Had the area improved that much they thought people gathering together indoors was safe? I thought things were on a sliding scale, moving as the numbers go up or down.
I know the holidays this year will not be the traditional gathering of my family, I just don’t see things drastically improving in the next few months.

No, for these areas they've temporarily changed the rules with regards to visiting family and friends indoors. Unfortunately this is coinciding with Eid.

@tresir2012 will be more specific re policies and changes. My faculties are melting here in 34 degree heat!

 

[Tadpole12]

I used to watch Restaurant Impossible, a show in the US where a chef goes in to help owners. He started a new "pandemic series" where he has travelled for 30 days with a skeleton crew of 12 staff on two buses to aid folks he helped in the show which are going down due to COVID. Website and takeout were biggies. The one I watched had neither before his crew got to them to help with such.

Good show, always interesting.
Ty for the heads up.

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https://www.foodnetwork.com/shows/r...isodes/quarantine-check-in-and-food-mysteries

 

[tresir2012]

Must See - BBC News

Lockdown saves this guy from homelessness.