Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #74

[tmar]

Conflicting reports as to whether Vic. has seen pandemic peak


ABC NEWS
Conflicting reports as to whether Vic. has seen pandemic peak
With infection numbers still fluctuating in the triple digits, and the mortality rate seeming to rise daily, it doesn't look like the state has reached its peak.

 

[tmar]

Fauci warns COVID-19 vaccine may be only partially effective, public health measures still needed

Fauci warns COVID-19 vaccine may be only partially effective, public health measures still needed

By Carl O'Donnell

10 hrs ago
(Reuters) - An approved coronavirus vaccine could end up being effective only 50-60% of the time, meaning public health measures will still be needed to keep the pandemic under control, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, said on Friday.

He told Reuters earlier this week that he expects tens of millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses to be available by early 2021, and a billion doses by the end of that year.[L1N2F728P]

U.S. President Donald Trump has put forward a more optimistic forecast, saying on Thursday the country could have a coronavirus vaccine before the Nov. 3 election.

 

[tmar]

Trump says AGAIN that coronavirus is 'disappearing'

Trump says AGAIN that coronavirus is 'disappearing'

Keith Griffith and Emily Crane For Dailymail.com

1 hour ago
President Donald Trump has highlighted declining new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in former hotspots Florida, Texas and Arizona, asserting that the pandemic 'will disappear' - even as deaths topped 2,000 in 24 hours for the first time since May.

Trump said at a press conference on Friday night at his golf club in New Jersey that the pandemic 'is disappearing,' adding, 'It will disappear.
It was unclear how Trump was defining 'jurisdictions,' but coronavirus deaths are still rising in 23 states, while cases are increasing in 20 states, according to a Reuters analysis comparing data from the past two weeks to the previous two.
It came as Dr Anthony Fauci warned there is 'trouble ahead' for some cities if they don't act now to stop the spread.

Deaths in the US exceeded the grim 160,000 mark on Friday, which is nearly a quarter of the global COVID-19 death toll. The number of positive cases across the US is now at nearly 4.9 million.

The US added 2,060 deaths in 24 hours as of 8.30pm on Thursday, AFP reported, citing the Johns Hopkins University live tally. The last time the US recorded more than 2,000 deaths in a 24-hour period was on May 7.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: New quarantine measures and tougher face covering rules come into force

Travellers arriving into the UK from Belgium, Andorra and the Bahamas must self-isolate for two weeks from today as toughened quarantine rules come into force.

The restrictions - which are in response to an "increased prevalence" of COVID-19 in these three countries - mean that Britons are now advised against all but essential travel to these destinations.

Tougher rules concerning the use of face coverings also come into effect today.

Face coverings are now mandatory in indoor places of worship, museums and galleries, public areas in hotels and hostels, bingo halls, libraries, cinemas, concert halls, crematoriums, aquariums and indoor zoos.

 

[SouthAussie]

One good sign for Victoria, and Australia, is the growth factor seems to be coming down. An average of 1.01 as of yesterday.



Here's what we learnt from the latest Daniel Andrews coronavirus briefing

 

[tresir2012]

U.S. pandemic worse than Mexico, Lopez Obrador says after travel warning

U.S. pandemic worse than Mexico, Lopez Obrador says after travel warning

11 hrs ago
MONTERREY, Mexico (Reuters) - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Friday the United States had greater problems from the coronavirus than his country, a day after the U.S. State Department urged citizens not to travel south of the border, citing high contagion rates.
"We have many fewer problems with the pandemic than the problems that, unfortunately, they are facing," Lopez Obrador said during a Friday morning press conference.

"Our situation is better," he said.

The United States on Thursday lifted a global health advisory imposed in March that advised U.S. citizens to avoid all international travel because of the coronavirus pandemic.
But the stringent Level 4 advisory, usually reserved for countries at war, remained in place for Mexico, with U.S. ambassador to Mexico Christopher Landau citing the spread of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus.

Several other countries remain on Level 4.

Lopez Obrador also criticized media outlets for focusing on the country's ranking as third place globally for overall COVID-19 deaths, rather than deaths per capita.

By the second measure, which allows a comparison of deaths accounting for a country's population, Mexico is in 13th place globally, according to data analysis by Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.

In Mexico, 40 people per every 100,000 have died from COVID-19 - a lower number than the United States, which is at 49 deaths per 100,000 - according to Johns Hopkins.

It also has fewer per capita deaths than Latin American peers Chile, Peru, Brazil and several European nations.
However, more in Mexico have died than in Russia, Japan and Bangladesh, which have similar populations.

Total deaths in Mexico surpassed 50,000 on Thursday, behind only the United States, which has 160,000 deaths, and Brazil, which is approaching 100,000.

Wonder how they are doing on this list of deaths per cases. UK is second :-( after Yemen by that measure. I will check for Mexico and USA. Here's the link.

COVID-19 mortality rate by country | Statista

ETA Mexico is 7th and USA is 47th.

 

[Simply Southern]

I didn't think about people being near death and taking hydroxychloroquine as a last resort. Thanks.

It was listed under the FDA emergency use for compassionate care. Everyone had to agree to take the drug, as no known data/outcomes were known.

It was one of the first experiential treatments and did work for some.

 

[tresir2012]

Well I had hepatitis vax a couple of years ago.

I have Flu vax every year and BCG fifty plus years ago - will I be ok? And you have reminded me I had a hep vax too about 8 or 9 years ago.

 

[tresir2012]

Incidentally, 400,000 Americans Died during the entire World War 2.

We're going to exceed that in terms of Covid-19 Deaths in less than 1 year.

You don't believe there will be a vaccine by November? I do think there will be as there is so much work and money going into it. Also, how many usually die from flu and pneumonia each year in the US? It should be the excess deaths that are being looked at for some idea of that IMO.

 

[Simply Southern]

Not sure that they were near death but taking advice from non medical people.

A physician had to order the drug, it's prescription only. So a medial person had to be involved.

In the days DM references, its all we had. It was being used in other countries. At that that time, the WHTF was speaking of the drug and the experimental use. Both Dr Birx and Fauci making it clear, the FDA had approved emergency use and we were "hoping" it would work.

 

[tresir2012]

Real villain in Victoria’s virus crisis


news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

"

Melbourne has become a tale of two cities. In the progressive and affluent inner suburbs there is a devotional adherence to mask-wearing and shop-shutting that borders on zealotry – to the point where commentators are writing public love-letters to the Premier and chief health officer.

Meanwhile in the poorer outer suburbs of the west and south-east people have simply ceased to give a . They have stopped listening and stopped caring.

On the first day of the state’s unprecedented curfews and travel bans there were more people violating stay-at-home orders than ever before. On the second day positive cases had skyrocketed to record numbers and deaths. The harder the lockdown, it seemed, the more people resisted.

Hence the government is flying blind. They allowed the virus to escape from quarantine, had no ability to effectively track and trace it in its early spread and have been woefully unable to suppress it ever since, even with evermore draconian measures. In thousands of cases they simply have no idea where the virus has come from nor where it is going.

The reasons for this are multiple and manifest. A Labor mate of mine who has worked for both state and federal health ministers blamed the break-up of the Victorian health system into more autonomous parts under the Kennett government, meaning there is no clear centralised authority to manage things in times of crisis such as these."

More at link

 

[Clair Louise]

Real villain in Victoria’s virus crisis


news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

"

Melbourne has become a tale of two cities. In the progressive and affluent inner suburbs there is a devotional adherence to mask-wearing and shop-shutting that borders on zealotry – to the point where commentators are writing public love-letters to the Premier and chief health officer.

Meanwhile in the poorer outer suburbs of the west and south-east people have simply ceased to give a ****. They have stopped listening and stopped caring.

On the first day of the state’s unprecedented curfews and travel bans there were more people violating stay-at-home orders than ever before. On the second day positive cases had skyrocketed to record numbers and deaths. The harder the lockdown, it seemed, the more people resisted.

Hence the government is flying blind. They allowed the virus to escape from quarantine, had no ability to effectively track and trace it in its early spread and have been woefully unable to suppress it ever since, even with evermore draconian measures. In thousands of cases they simply have no idea where the virus has come from nor where it is going.

The reasons for this are multiple and manifest. A Labor mate of mine who has worked for both state and federal health ministers blamed the break-up of the Victorian health system into more autonomous parts under the Kennett government, meaning there is no clear centralised authority to manage things in times of crisis such as these."

More at link

Mmmmm................ crisis? 266 dead as opposed to almost 50,000 dead and it is crisis?

 

[tresir2012]

Dbm

 

[tresir2012]

Mmmmm................ crisis? 266 dead as opposed to almost 50,000 dead and it is crisis?

According to this Australian news article, of course it is a crisis for them, just like it was at the beginning of our crisis. We went in to lockdown a week after our first deaths so that is a similar stage for Victoria. It is a bad place to be and it will be tough. I have elderly close relatives in Oz so I am very worried.

 

[tresir2012]

Reposting OP link for reference.


More than 100 Americans have died after taking hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 | Daily Mail Online

"In the first six months of 2020, 293 people died after taking hydroxychloroquine, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's review of the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) adverse events reporting system.

Top Articlesby Daily MailPfizer Inc signs multi‑yeardeal to manufactureremdesivir

That's compared to just 75 in the first half of 2019.

Much like public health experts use the number of 'excess' deaths to estimate how many people died of coronavirus but have not yet been counted, the Sentinel looked at data on those other 218 deaths.

The reason 'more than half' of those people had been taking hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine was COVID-19. "

So they took the 2019 normal HXC deaths of 75 off the 2020 293 deaths to come up with 218 excess deaths from HXC. More than half of those were taken for Covid. So the rest must have been deaths from patients taking it for other causes. So more than 100 deaths out of 160,000 needs to be set against how many it saved, which we don't know without looking at the studies. I think it would be more than 100 nationwide.

(I think it funny that there is an ad for Remdesivir in the article. How obvious is that? )

Also from the link this is a good graphic.

 

[SouthAussie]

An antibody treatment designed to protect against coronavirus could be available as early as a few months — but only for a fraction of the millions of Americans who might benefit from the treatment.

But according to drug-makers, the initial distribution will most likely be left up to the federal government, whose shoddy track record on setting up widespread testing, distributing personal protective gear and dispensing other drugs such as remdesivir to fight coronavirus is already setting off alarms.

"This scramble for monoclonal antibodies could happen two months from now or even earlier."

Drug-makers insist they're committed to making sure their products wind up with the patients who need them most. Government officials, meantime, say they're still working out their manufacturing and distribution plans.

Drug-makers and policymakers alike envision enormous demand for antibody treatments.

But even in the best-case scenario — even if such an antibody treatment proves effective — there will likely be only a few hundred thousand doses initially available.
The early supply is expected to fall far short of the tens of millions of Americans who could potentially benefit from the treatment.

COVID-19 treatment offers test run for vaccine distribution

 

[dixiegirl1035]

You don't believe there will be a vaccine by November? I do think there will be as there is so much work and money going into it. Also, how many usually die from flu and pneumonia each year in the US? It should be the excess deaths that are being looked at for some idea of that IMO.

Tresir, I think almost all of use believe there is going to be vaccine by November. If we want to get granular, possibly over 200 exist right now.

Many are being geared up and mass produced all over the world as I write this, without yet being proven. And yes, other countries will probably roll out prior to the US.

That is what much of the funding is for in that many are being produced prior to the completion of phase 3 so there is a jump on the stockpile.

The bottom line for many is that folks in the US are perhaps being "mislead" into thinking that a vaccine will be produced, have all the logistics out there, and available for you and I to go up to our local CVS or doc to get the shot in November.

MOO, that's not gonna happen for us normal folks until well into 2021, and those disclaimers and explanations aren't getting out to the common folk in the US who don't understand and therefore believe (falsely MOO) that they will be able to get a shot this November.

Go back to February even in this thread. There were statements that a vaccine had been developed even at that time.

 

[tresir2012]

An antibody treatment designed to protect against coronavirus could be available as early as a few months — but only for a fraction of the millions of Americans who might benefit from the treatment.

But according to drug-makers, the initial distribution will most likely be left up to the federal government, whose shoddy track record on setting up widespread testing, distributing personal protective gear and dispensing other drugs such as remdesivir to fight coronavirus is already setting off alarms.

"This scramble for monoclonal antibodies could happen two months from now or even earlier."

Drug-makers insist they're committed to making sure their products wind up with the patients who need them most. Government officials, meantime, say they're still working out their manufacturing and distribution plans.

Drug-makers and policymakers alike envision enormous demand for antibody treatments.

But even in the best-case scenario — even if such an antibody treatment proves effective — there will likely be only a few hundred thousand doses initially available.
The early supply is expected to fall far short of the tens of millions of Americans who could potentially benefit from the treatment.

COVID-19 treatment offers test run for vaccine distribution

"Mr Foster is an Illinois Democrat who has asked the Government Accountability Office for enhanced oversight, and regular updates, on the therapeutic manufacturing process.
"This scramble for monoclonal antibodies could happen two months from now or even earlier."

People line up behind a health care worker at a mobile coronavirus testing site at the Charles Drew University of Medicine and Science in Los Angeles. (Associated Press)
It's not clear who will make the decisions about where the initial antibody doses go. And the Trump administration's record is littered with allegations of unfair distribution and political favoritism.
Mr Foster, a member of the House coronavirus subcommittee, imagines a potential nightmare scenario where "poor people are dying in overcrowded hospitals because they can't get the adequate doses of the curative antibody therapeutics, while rich people are getting preventative doses by signing up for the week stay at the presidential suite at Mar-a-Lago", he said."

Are these ready to go because it does not sound like it? It seems it would be several months away and I think we would have the vaccine by then. Are these antibody therapies in trial anywhere?

ETA to answer my own questions here is a Science Mag article that explains the stage they are at with this therapy.

Designer antibodies could battle COVID-19 before vaccines arrive

 

[katydid23]

This is our offspring, our heritage. What are these school systems thinking (NOT). A delay of perhaps a year with online learning is not going to have a lifetime effect on kids. COVID-19 may do so.

Many teachers of low income community students say that a year off could be disastrous for many students. A lot of them do not have computers or wifi at their disposal daily, unlike other students.

And many do not have people who can homeschool them sufficiently. And they will also miss out on their breakfast and lunches, that many rely upon.

They are afraid that a large segment of students will regress considerably if they do not get back to school sooner rather than later.

Survey Shows Big Remote Learning Gaps For Low-Income And Special Needs Children
Survey Shows Big Remote Learning Gaps For Low-Income And Special Needs Children

Four out of 10 of the poorest U.S. students are accessing remote learning as little as once a week or less, according to a new survey from ParentsTogether, an advocacy group. By contrast, for families making more than $100,000 a year, 83% of kids are doing distance learning every day, with the majority engaged over two hours a day, the survey found.

The nation's schools shut down in-person learning in mid-March, and only a few states, including Colorado, Montana and Wyoming, have experimented with opening classroom doors since then. From the beginning, experts in distance learning warned that it can magnify inequities, with the most able and highly advantaged learners humming along while learners who need more support fall far behind.

 

[tresir2012]

Dupe deleted.