Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #78

[tresir2012]

So, are people really thinking that 450,000 (or whatever) people can roll up to a town on their Harleys, drink together, crowd in to watch bands together, and not super-spread the virus when they return to their home states?

And yet much smaller weddings - for much shorter time periods - at different venues have been contact traced to 100 and more covid cases (as per weepingangel's links).

It just doesn't seem logical to me.

What's the positive test results? I have lost track. It was 40 million tests but most be way higher now. I cannot see Sturgis being any higher than the national or SD positivity rate.

Ok 90 million tests, 6.5 million cases so that's 15 %.

15% of 450k = 67,500. That could be the maximum cases but some may be mild and then they go back to 10 different states. That is assuming they all test and quarantine. I don't think all the 450k went to bars. It was reported a lot spent time travelling round the state also, so it may be less.

 

[SouthAussie]

What's the positive test results? I have lost track. It was 40 million tests but most be way higher now. I cannot see Sturgis being any higher than the national or SD positivity rate.

MOO

I am just surprised that the debate about this persists. A portion of 450,000 people are very likely to be spreading the virus. imo

What portion that is, nobody knows. It is not countable because nobody is testing and contact tracing them all.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

Agreed. I am not going to take "risk management" advice from someone who is 79 years old. Covid is bad. Yes, we "get" that. Meanwhile, some people still need to travel, go to work, eat out. We can't all live in a bubble.

I am cautious, but we have to adapt to our new "normal". That is the way it is now. Resilience is going to be the key element now for people being able to function in our society.

Dr Fauci's advice was exactly what you and your husband did while going out to a restaurant. Outdoor seating with social distancing.

"If you’re going to go to a restaurant, try as best as you can to have outdoor seating that is properly spaced between the tables," he said.

Fauci says he's avoiding planes, restaurants during coronavirus pandemic

 

[Deleted member 39678]

I am just surprised that the debate about this persists. A portion of 450,000 people are very likely to be spreading the virus. imo

What portion that is, nobody knows. It is not countable because nobody is testing and contact tracing them all.

I agree. But that doesn't mean that economists should make up inflated numbers to bolster their point. JMO

 

[tresir2012]

I am just surprised that the debate about this persists. A portion of 450,000 people are very likely to be spreading the virus. imo

What portion that is, nobody knows. It is not countable because nobody is testing and contact tracing them all.

It's not just them. A portion of the whole world population is spreading the virus until we get the vaccine.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

I agree with this.

Secretary of Health Kim Malsam-Rysdon said people “shouldn’t put too much stock into models” and that using cell phone pings to project COVID-19 cases isn’t an accurate correlation.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/sturgis-rally-was-superspreading-event-linked-to-covid-19-cases/

 

[Sundog]

I don't think anyone has much choice other than what you are saying.

Covid seems to be everywhere there. Every single thing that you do has a certain risk attached. Some people are dying from that risk. Some people are becoming unwell from that risk. Others are sailing through. There is no certainty. So you spin the wheel of what is important to you, and go and do it.

IMO

Not just here in Ohio, but family members around the world are in the same situation - in Alberta and Ontario, Canada; and in Beijing and Istanbul. We're all living in uncertain times.

 

[SouthAussie]

I agree. But that doesn't mean that economists should make up inflated numbers to bolster their point. JMO

They have a kazzalion research papers on their website, from all different nations. It is interesting to some.

And it seems to be the only point of reference that we have - re: Sturgis. Due to that no specific testing, no specific contact tracing (of the visiting bikers) that is going on with regard to that event.

It is not political. It is part of what they have been doing for years. I have posted the link several times if people want to look at what their non-profit interest is. You can type "covid" into their search area and tons of articles come up, about all parts of the world.

 

[SouthAussie]

Not just here in Ohio, but family members around the world are in the same situation - in Alberta and Ontario, Canada; and in Beijing and Istanbul. We're all living in uncertain times.

Of course. It is just that some places are truly safer than other places at the moment. Due to different handling of this crisis. imo

 

[Deleted member 39678]

They have a kazzalion research papers on their website, from all different nations. It is interesting to some.

And it seems to be the only point of reference that we have - re: Sturgis. Due to that no testing, no contact tracing that is going on with regard to that event.

It is not political. It is part of what they have been doing for years. I have posted the link several times if people want to look at what their non-profit interest is. You can type "covid" into their search area and tons of articles come up.

I think that this type of non peer reviewed garbage is not helpful in understanding the truth of the possible spread of the virus. JMO

 

[SouthAussie]

I think that this type of non peer reviewed garbage is not helpful in understanding the truth of the possible spread of the virus. JMO

As I said ... interesting to some.

Travel has always been known to be one of the biggest spreaders of the virus. If people quit moving about unnecessarily, we would all have a better chance of localised suppression ... which would then lead to general overall suppression. imo

 

[ilovewings]

My interpretation is that people tend to stay longer at a casino, sometimes even losing track of time. That is less likely to happen in a restaurant even if one opts to sit at the bar in that restaurant.

And of course going to an indoor public place for an hour (example) gives you less exposure than going to an indoor public place for several hours (example), all other things being equal (ie adjusted for seating distances etc)
IMO MOO

There was a comment made on NBC nightly news by Stephanie Ruhle -- she said
it so fast and provided no further commentary -- what she said was there is
some evidence that people who tested positive for the virus had eaten in a
restaurant within the past 2 weeks

 

[CSIDreamer]

I am just surprised that the debate about this persists. A portion of 450,000 people are very likely to be spreading the virus. imo

What portion that is, nobody knows. It is not countable because nobody is testing and contact tracing them all.

Which is exactly why I'm calling bull on that grand proclamation of 250K or so. Nobody knows but it's an utterly delicious speculative point. Which some seem to take as fact.

 

[SouthAussie]

It's not just them. A portion of the whole world population is spreading the virus until we get the vaccine.

That's right. Nobody said it was just them. It would just be super-helpful to the whole country and world if people could curtail unnecessary travel until there is some very good remedy.

We all live in beautiful states and countries. Staycations - enjoying the beauty of our own states - seem to make the most sense at the moment. imo

Many of us are not happy about one death of a loved one from covid, let alone tens of thousands of deaths.
I read an article yesterday that said it is all just becoming numbers to many people. That people are forgetting this is about real lives, until it hits them. (Don't have the link handy at the moment, so this will be IMO. Also, not referring to anyone here, as we are all very aware.)

 

[Clair Louise]

I agree. But that doesn't mean that economists should make up inflated numbers to bolster their point. JMO

But to what purpose would economists have to inflate numbers? What is their point?

 

[Trino]

I totally agree. I keep shaking my head that the US of A was not able to mandate/arrange this. We did the opposite.

The US was able. We just did not do it.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

But to what purpose would economists have to inflate numbers? What is their point?

I have no idea. I do think that it's irresponsible. JMO

 

[MimosaMornings]

There was a comment made on NBC nightly news by Stephanie Ruhle -- she said
it so fast and provided no further commentary -- what she said was there is
some evidence that people who tested positive for the virus had eaten in a
restaurant within the past 2 weeks

JMO
Maybe this?

As states lift restaurant restrictions, CDC report links dining out to increased COVID-19 risk

“Those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, "were approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results," the study authors wrote. And those who were diagnosed without any known exposure to the virus were more likely to report having visited a bar or coffee shop in the previous two weeks.”

 

[tresir2012]

That's right. Nobody said it was just them. It would just be super-helpful to the whole country and world if people could curtail unnecessary travel until there is some very good remedy.

We all live in beautiful states and countries. Staycations - enjoying the beauty of our own states - seem to make the most sense at the moment. imo

Many of us are not happy about one death of a loved one from covid, let alone tens of thousands of deaths.
I read an article yesterday that said it is all just becoming numbers to many people. That people are forgetting this is about real lives, until it hits them. (Don't have the link handy at the moment, so this will be IMO. Also, not referring to anyone here, as we are all very aware.)

People won't do it unless it's forced on them and legislated. Travel is allowed in the UK and last month people were encouraged and given financial incentives to eat out. Now there is an increase but everyone is still on holiday and traffic and footfall is unbelievable. Many people are still off work and the weather is still nice. It will continue unless wack a mole happens.

 

[Clair Louise]

I have no idea. I do think that it's irresponsible. JMO

But, what is it harming?