US nears daily Covid cases record amid warning of 500,000 deaths by February
Has anyone done the math on this? What kind of daily positive rate and daily death rate might we be looking at?
It's 281,716 more deaths, starting on Oct. 24.
128 days until Feb 28 (which is the date of the projection).
2,200 deaths per day.
The projection in that article is actually 511,000.
Naturally, it will come in a curve with a peak - so at the peak, it should be around 4000 deaths per day, with next week seeing us go to at least 1200.
I think there are so many variables in this, that I hope and pray the deaths will be much less.
The positivity rate is hard to predict, as it's hard to find total number of daily tests done in the US...I'm sure it's somewhere.
If only 2% of people die,
that's new 14,100,000 people with CoVid between now and Feb 28.
If the cases are distributed over a very wide age range (2-95), perhaps it will be only about 1% of the total cases in which case it would be 28,200,000 people in the US have had Covid by end of February.
Add 8,700,000 to either of those numbers to get a total case rate - it all depends on demographics. Worldwide, death rate is 4% of all tested cases, so if we go with an optimistic 1% death rate, we get ~37,000,000 total cases for a US-wide positive rate of about 10% for the entire period of CoVid.
Since positivity is already 5-10% most places, I'm guessing the 1% death model with 28,000,000 or so new cases is closer to what's going to happen.
Theoretically, 2,800,000 people will need hospitalization in the next 4 months, which is mind-boggling. Not all in the ICU, but still.