Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #1

[enelram]

@enelram @Jax49 @lonetraveler
How are things looking in your areas? If I missed anyone else in the path, please excuse me & jump in!

We are leaving Savannah- not so concerned w flooding, but w cat 2 winds & trees falling thru our roof & landing on our heads. Too many live oaks & pine in the area.

Speaking of cat- he hates the car, but this time practically ran TO the leash. Makes me wonder what he knows something the weather people don’t.

Driving...

Central Florida here checking in.
sunrise just starting but it's gusty outside w/
light steady rain. No locomotive sounds right
now so things are good. Haven't been able to check out the dozens of large grandaddy oaks
around the farm but due to the already wet
ground we are worried about them tipping over in the wind.
The horses are all upright though probably a little waterlogged.
Thanks for asking @JudgeJoe, hope your
travels are safe and you get back home soon.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Georgia
Georgia's Governor Brian P. Kemp issued an executive order Wednesday morning, expanding the state of emergency declared last week to now include Appling, Bacon, Bulloch, Clinch, Echols, Evans, Screven, Tattnall, and Ware Counties.

Counties Brantley, Bryan, Camden, Charlton, Chatham, Effingham, Glynn, Liberty, Long, McIntosh, Pierce, and Wayne counties remain under a state of emergency.

Live updates: Hurricane Dorian threatens the US after devastating the Bahamas - CNN

 

[Inthedetails]

This sort of feels like childbirth - when you get to that point of being so ready to just get on with it and over it.

Best wishes to everyone in Dorian's path. Hold on tight.

jmo

 

[JerseyGirl]

Jax Sheriff's Office
✔@JSOPIO
#HurricaneDorian is here. This is Neptune Beach, FL at 4:00 AM.

[VIDEO AT LINK] here: Jax Sheriff's Office on Twitter

____


Virginia

The coastal city of Virginia Beach, just above the North Carolina border, is preparing for Dorian, which is expected to move north toward the Carolinas on Thursday.

Preparations include checking storm drains and pump stations, inspecting equipment, and servicing generators, according to city officials.

Meanwhile, Virginia Beach Public Works has announced that sand will be available starting Wednesday morning for residents to fill sandbags in preparation of possible flooding and storm effects. Sand will be delivered to the Virginia Beach Sportsplex at 9:30 a.m. City officials warned that there would be a limited number of shovels and sand containers available, and residents are encouraged to bring their own.

Virginia Beach SPCA has asked supporters to avoid dropping off any additional donations until after the storm has passed, as it prepares its shelter for the hurricane.

Live updates: Hurricane Dorian threatens the US after devastating the Bahamas - CNN

 

[PayrollNerd]

Here is this mornings Facebook report from Levi.
Tropical Tidbits

Dorian continues to parallel the Florida coastline this morning. Recon data indicates the storm's intensity is not changing much right now, with maximum winds near 100 mph. These strongest winds currently remain offshore, but the storm core is expected to get much closer to South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday and Thursday night.

Storm surge and flash flooding remain the primary concerns all along the southeast US coastline. Tropical storm force winds are causing some power outages in Florida. Wind gusts may approach hurricane force farther up the coastline. Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect for all of the SC and NC coast.

 

[?mysterian?]

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

It is tragic that so many lives were lost in Bahamas. People have been increasingly nonchalant about hurricanes. "Oh, this house has weathered hurricanes for 50 years.". "We will be fine.".

I believe that the weather has changed, significantly, and that storms are increasingly more ferocious when they come landfall. People need to accept this new "normal", and not rely on history of storms.

Weather historians who have historically investigated all recorded hurricanes don't believe they have become more powerful or more often than in past recorded weather history. Now we are most definitely aware of them much more due to social media, and more weather spokespersons than ever before who get the word out much quicker.

There has always been humongous monster storms throughout recorded weather history. Just as powerful as the ones happening now.

The good thing that has changed is the knowledge we have learned from past hurricanes that did tremendous damage as CAT5s.

Also our building codes have greatly improved in these areas, and the airborne Hurricane Hunters who have flown into the eyes, some for decades, are able to gather more helpful data to alert so many now who may be in the paths of these hurricanes.

But many monster hurricanes just like the ones we are seeing now have been happening for many decades now. Iirc storms like this started being recorded way back in the 1800s.

Jmho

 

[FrostOwl]

One important reason why hurricanes seems to be causing more damage today than for example in the beginning of the 19th century is that the population today is about six times higher than it was in 1804 (estimated 1 billion, in 2012 it was 7 billion) World population - Wikipedia It took 123 years to go from 1 to 2 billion inhabitants, but only 13 years from 6 to 7 billion, and most of the population explosion happened after 1960. ( Which happens to be under my lifetime.)

More people today live in areas affected by hurricanes, for example Florida in 1830 had a population of 34,700 and in 2018 the population was estimated to be 21,300,000! (from Wikipedia, numbers from United States Census Bureau).
Such a population explosion means of course houses are built in places where there is a risk for more damage to structures and affecting more people.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Delaware

Delmarva could see some impacts from the hurricane by week's end as it speeds up and moves northeast out to sea. "The farther south in Delaware you go, the more impacts you'll see as the storm does remain offshore and away from the region," said a National Weather Service meteorologist. Some portions of Delaware could see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with wind reaching 20 to 30 mph and 40 mph gusts along the coast. Those impacts pale in comparison to what is expected along the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina in the coming days.

Hurricane Dorian effects forecast to hit hardest in Delaware on Friday

___

Strongest storms ever on record in the Atlantic Basin:

Hurricane Dorian update: Storm tracks dangerously close to East Coast

 

[Skittles]

@enelram @Jax49 @lonetraveler
How are things looking in your areas? If I missed anyone else in the path, please excuse me & jump in!

We are leaving Savannah- not so concerned w flooding, but w cat 2 winds & trees falling thru our roof & landing on our heads. Too many live oaks & pine in the area.

Speaking of cat- he hates the car, but this time practically ran TO the leash. Makes me wonder what he knows something the weather people don’t.

Driving...

I'm in NC about two hours inland, and I'm keeping an eye on the cone. If it shifts a bit west we will probably get tropical storm level winds. Currently it's cloudy.

You are right to flee the trees. The eye of hurricane Fran (1996) unexpectedly came right over us in the middle of the night. It was predicted to go closer to the coast but veered at the last minute . We had gusts to about 80 mph, enough to topple tons of trees. One of my friends was home with her three daughters, but her husband was out of town. Their house was divided into three by two trees. She and the girls were in their bottom level praying in the dark.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Dorian is forecast to pass Savannah, Georgia, early Thursday morning, bringing powerful 92 mph wind gusts.

The storm will then come close to Charleston, South Carolina, Thursday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 100 mph. South Carolina's coast will be particularly vulnerable to dangerous storm surge, which could reach 8 feet above ground from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach.

From there, the storm will approach North Carolina's coast and possibly even make landfall on the state's barrier islands, Outer Banks, by early Friday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.

Dorian is expected to head out to sea by Friday evening.

Hurricane Dorian latest: Storm's eye to move dangerously close to Carolinas

 

[tabitha111]

Not too worried here in my little town. If you have ever been to the Outer Banks, you have to go through my town of Chesapeake,
VA to get there. I am right across the border where you go through the toll. Today they advised us that traffic will be crazy because of the evacuation of OBX. Nothing new for us, happens at least once every year.
Will keep eyes and ears to the ground of course.

 

[ColyH]

The Bahamas a couple of days ago when Hurricane Dorian hit.

 

[tabitha111]

Interesting write up re: Josh
A storm chaser went silent as Dorian slammed the Bahamas. He reemerged with a harrowing story.

 

[?mysterian?]

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to the North
Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to the North
Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The Storm Surge Warning has been been discontinued from Port
Canaveral, Florida southward.

The Hurricane Warning for the northeastern coast of Florida from the
Volusia/Brevard County line to Ponte Vedra Beach has been changed
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Volusia/Brevard County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton
Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

 

[JerseyGirl]

Royal Caribbean and Walt Disney Company each pledge $1 million to Hurricane Dorian disaster relief

The Walt Disney Company, led by Disney Cruise Line, has committed more than $1 million in cash and in-kind support to help relief and recovery efforts for those in The Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. Disney Castaway Cay employs more than 60 Bahamians from Abaco and Grand Bahama, as well as several employees from other Bahamian islands.

Disney to donate over $1M to Bahamian relief and recovery efforts

Royal Caribbean announced it is committing $1 million to Dorian disaster relief, and ITM—partner in the Holistica joint venture that is developing the Grand Lucayan resort in Freeport—is also donating an additional $100,000.

Royal Caribbean pledges $1 million to Hurricane Dorian disaster relief

The Carnival Cruise Line has also pledged its support in the recovery efforts and said they are working to determine how to help the Grand Bahama shipyard and its employees.

Cruise lines pledge millions for Bahamas relief efforts

 

[PayrollNerd]

Live presentation

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=678946369249471

 

[Skittles]

NC Governor Roy Cooper is having a presser now. He reported the first NC storm death. An 87-year-old man in Columbus county fell off a ladder while preparing his home for Dorian.

It's currently on the breaking news banner at WRAL:

Wake County under tropical storm warning; Hurricane Dorian to move up NC coast as Category 2 storm :: WRAL.com

 

[Jade]

Weather historians who have historically investigated all recorded hurricanes don't believe they have become more powerful or more often than in past recorded weather history. Now we are most definitely aware of them much more due to social media, and more weather spokespersons than ever before who get the word out much quicker.

There has always been humongous monster storms throughout recorded weather history. Just as powerful as the ones happening now.

The good thing that has changed is the knowledge we have learned from past hurricanes that did tremendous damage as CAT5s.

Also our building codes have greatly improved in these areas, and the airborne Hurricane Hunters who have flown into the eyes, some for decades, are able to gather more helpful data to alert so many now who may be in the paths of these hurricanes.

But many monster hurricanes just like the ones we are seeing now have been happening for many decades now. Iirc storms like this started being recorded way back in the 1800s.

Jmho

Since there are no links this opinion is in need of facts:

Historical data is unreliable because of the way the data was collected but it is not the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin it is the amount of rainfall and the stalling behavior that is different and catastrophic.

Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (e.g., see blue curve in Fig. 4 or Vecchi and Knutson 2008). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is
not significantly distinguishable from zero (Figure 2). In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.
​

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/


It is complex understanding how the ocean absorbs the excess energy from global warming and how that effects the severity of hurricanes.

Hurricane Dorian could be the fifth major storm to threaten the United States in three years, driving home scientists’ warnings that climate change is shaping powerful tropical systems.……​

The storm’s erratic behavior was consistent with what scientists say future storms will look like in a warming climate.​

“The environment for all such storms has changed because of climate change,” Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Climate Analysis Section, said in an email.….​

In fact, five of the 10 strongest Atlantic storms have occurred since 2016, according to NOAA. They are Dorian, Michael, Maria, Irma and Matthew. All packed winds of at least 157 mph, and each caused tens of billions of dollars in damage, according to NOAA and the Insurance Information Institute. Maria, Irma and Michael were Category 5 storms when they struck the United States; Matthew was a Category 5 as it entered the Caribbean but weakened substantially by the time it made landfall in South Carolina.

Scientists have warned that hurricane intensity will rise over the next century as ocean waters warm, providing more energy to tropical systems as they move toward land. Research since 2017 has borne out such predictions, with larger, wetter and more destructive hurricanes occurring almost annually.…..​

Republican Sen. Rick Scott, the former two-term Florida governor and a longtime climate change skeptic, acknowledged in a “Fox News Sunday” interview that climate warming is contributing to hurricane intensity.


“We know the climate’s changing, and we know our storms seem to be getting bigger,” Scott told Fox’s Chris Wallace.​

Dorian Drives Home Warnings of Climate Influence on Hurricanes










​

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Sigh. After we got some good news about our loved ones who live in Florida we now have to worry just as much about our youngest daughter, son in law, and 2 little granddaughters.

They live in Mt.Pleasant right outside of Charleston. Their home is very close to the ocean.

They have decided not to evacuate this time. They have already boarded up all of their windows, and moved all outside furniture into their garage.

When they built their home they had an axillary generator installed into the power system. This type of generators allows both 110, and 220 AMP have full power. So they will be able to not only have electricity for the home, but the air conditioning will function as normal.

She had just called us a little over two weeks ago to tell us their home had sustained a lightning strike during a storm. It fried the motherboard to their tankless water heater, and they have a control panel that operates all the needed functions of the home. The motherboard went out on that too.

So they just got all of that replaced last week. This time they are turning the smart feature control panel off incase the hurriane has a lot of lightning strikes along with it.

As a trivia tidbit. I was watching Fox yesterday and they had one of the pilots on who has flown inside the eye of hurricanes for 19 years, and flown missions over the devastated aftermath.

He said one the most memorable was hurricane Michael in October 2018.
He said it's highly unusual to see hurricanes remain a CAT 1 as far as 175 miles inland.

I never thought of that before, but we live inland over 175 miles away from the Mexico Beach/PCB area where Michael came in. Yet we were hit when it was still a CAT1.

Even here there were areas without power for 2 month, and there are still homes with roofs which are still not repaired due to so many having to be repaired or the homes completely torn down.

I'm still praying for all who may be affected.

It's the flood waters that worries me because we still see so many lives lost when they did not heed all the warnings not to go into any flood water with a vehicle.

Jmho