Hurricane Jose September 2017

[gregjrichards]

This thread is to discuss hurricane Jose

Hurricane Jose has just strengthened into a category 4

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[watcher9]

Thanks for opening this thread. It does look too big to ignore, doesn't it?
Prayers that he will turn northward as forecasted or even before.

 

[JerseyGirl]

As of 11 a.m. ET, Jose had winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.

Jose should make a small clockwise loop over the open waters of the Atlantic for the next three days. This is due to an area of high pressure that will move around the hurricane over the next several days.

Long-range models suggest that the strengthening high-pressure area will then force the hurricane to move west-northwest toward the East Coast. Models show a wide range of possibilities, all the way from South Carolina to Newfoundland, or even out to sea. Of 20 runs of the GFS model ensemble forecast Monday morning, 25% resulted in an eventual landfall in the U.S., and another 25% in Canada. The rest kept the storm out to sea. For the European weather model, a recurvature out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions.

Any potential direct hit from Jose wouldn't be until next week, however.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weat...al-threat-u-s-east-coast-next-week/653446001/

 

[Henry2326]

GFS noon models today show possible approach Monday 9/18 into North Carolina as cat4, ride the coast, with final landfall in Virginia as a cat3, moving into North Atlantic on Wednesday, 9/20.

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[Henry2326]

Today at noon, EURO models do not show a U.S landfall. Pic shows just off the coast of North Atlantic.

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[Henry2326]

GFS 6:00 models reversed the noon thinking and DO NOT show hitting land. YAY

I will post models again when scenarios show a US landfall.

With the windshield wiper effect of weather models, that could be everyday... Hahaha

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[JerseyGirl]

Thank you for posting this thread Henry2326. I can't even deal with Jose on my plate right now. This is way too close to us again after Sandy! My house is dangling 10 feet up in the air on some "Jenga" contraptions that my builder said is called, "box cribbing". I'm so worried because Jose is a cat 4 already!

 

[Henry2326]

Thank you for posting this thread Henry2326. I can't even deal with Jose on my plate right now. This is way too close to us again after Sandy! My house is dangling 10 feet up in the air on some "Jenga" contraptions that my builder said is called, "box cribbing". I'm so worried because Jose is a cat 4 already!

Hi Jersey- I was thinking of you and your house while I was posting. Hope we get a reprieve so your house can get some "legs" to weather the storm.. [emoji38]

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[Henry2326]

GFS 6:00 am update: Shows it skirting the North Atlantic coast on Tuesday, 9/19.

EURO continues to forecast no land interaction.

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[JerseyGirl]

Goodbye Jose!

Hurricane Jose weakened overnight and could become a tropical storm later Tuesday, according to the 5 a.m. advisory.

Jose’s maximum sustained winds are 75 mph, which barely register it as a hurricane. A Category 1 hurricane packs winds between 74 mph and 95 mph.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story.html

 

[Henry2326]

Goodbye Jose!

Hurricane Jose weakened overnight and could become a tropical storm later Tuesday, according to the 5 a.m. advisory.

Jose’s maximum sustained winds are 75 mph, which barely register it as a hurricane. A Category 1 hurricane packs winds between 74 mph and 95 mph.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story.html

And again we stand one foot in one model and one foot in another. The EURO has it dissipating but the GFS has it downgrading but then increasing again into a cat3.

Good test to see which model predicts this one.

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[JerseyGirl]

And again we stand one foot in one model and one foot in another. The EURO has it dissipating but the GFS has it downgrading but then increasing again into a cat3.

Good test to see which model predicts this one.

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Ok, I'll keep my eye out too. (no pun intended)

 

[Henry2326]

GFS noon version continues with re-intensification but blows it out to sea with no landfall....hope we can maintain this trend.

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[ATasteOfHoney]

Watch for the possibility of Lee forming off the coast of Central Africa

 

[Henry2326]

Watch for the possibility of Lee forming off the coast of Central Africa

Will do....nothing in the noon model.

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[Henry2326]

From Mike's Weather Page at 11:00 am:

"Hurricane Jose is hanging east of the Bahamas and most all models have him loop around and race away to the NE... except the ol' UK (in blue).

Looking at ensembles several of its members bring him more west. It is the outlier right now but need to watch a little as the UK did well with Irma. It was consistent on her dipping into Cuba more than rest with a little more west movement. The other yellow spot expected to recurve."

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

Its no Irma....thank goodness.
Overnight model runs closer to land and more spread out indicating more disparity and lack of agreement.

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[Henry2326]

Midnight EURO shows a cat1 storm off the North Atlantic coast end of next week. 6:00 am GFS continues to show it there early in the week and a stronger cat2/cat3 storm, skirting the coast..

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[Henry2326]

"The latest computer models have trended towards taking Hurricane Jose to the north by early next week, with no U.S. landfall likely. However, the hurricane is expected to come within a few hundred miles of the mid-Atlantic U.S. coast, and we must closely monitor this storm. It is too early to be confident that it will miss."

https://www.wunderground.com

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[Henry2326]

Both EURO and GFS flirting with US landfall in North Atlantic early next week. The High may block him in and push him toward land. Watching....

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