Hurricane Rita thread

[Buzz Mills]

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Rita Position
http://tinyurl.com/7ju9l

Hurricane Rita Projected Path
http://tinyurl.com/c4fym

Hurricane Rita Wind Forecast (in % of highest wind speed)
http://tinyurl.com/857yy

Hurricane Rita Strike Probabilities (Scroll Down)
http://tinyurl.com/8hqt6

Hurricane Rita Satellite Imagery (Patience Required)
http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy

The above links will update automatically, so if someone wants to include them in their future posts, they will be valid for that time.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

Size Comparison

KATRINA
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB. (at landfall) 902 MB (at its lowest)

RITA
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB. (presently) 897 MB (at its lowest)
This is the 3rd lowest pressure on record-- Gilbert 888 MB, 1935 LABOR DAY 892 MB

The record low central pressure ever, for a hurricane IN the U.S., is 892 MB (the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane).

RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH.

Rita has the time, and perfect conditions, to continue growing.

ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

 

[poco]

We're just coming to your house Gabby - be there around dinner - speaking of dinner, what are we having tonight?

 

[Buzz Mills]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

 

[tybee204]

The Hurricane Check in thread was merged with the one in the Jury Room.

Just a heads up

 

[Buzz Mills]

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

 

[BarnGoddess]

Important question, HOW are we gonna be able to afford THIS recovery effort? People gave huge amounts for Katrina, and the feds are gonna try and foot to $200 billion bill, as well. Were will we get the money for the people devastated by THIS storm, now? Plus Iraq, etc.

At work, we talked like we're headed for a major recession or even depression. How can we afford all of this??????

It is a big worry. I wonder how many truly caring lawmakers will go back and check the spending bills that included some major pork for their districts and abandon these projects. If enough of the money is returned to the government, then it may cost less in the long run. I'm thinking of that Alaskan bridge that services 50 some odd residents on an island. What's wrong with a ferry? There are thousands of studies financed for stupid stuff. We can put these off for a while. Also what is being offset by private donations? Where does that money fit in? The Red Cross and Salvation Army doesn't seem to have had a big presence in Katrina, partly from red tape by the State of Louisiana. How much is left in their coffers? Why does the federal government have to pay for everything? Having been in Miami during Andrew, I know my company didn't get any federal money to repair major damage in several locations. I had to arrange for repairs to my mother's house and what insurance didn't cover, we had to pay. Where was the money then? I realize that during Andrew, the homes that were totally destroyed were not in the poorest parts of town, they were upper-class neighborhoods for the most part and most were insured. The major government expense would have been low-cost loans and FEMA crew expense for immediate relief. The cost noted in the thread of $20+ billion was the total cost, not what the government spent.

Just sounding off here.

Everyone, stay safe.

 

[Buzz Mills]

It is a big worry. I wonder how many truly caring lawmakers will go back and check the spending bills that included some major pork for their districts and abandon these projects. If enough of the money is returned to the government, then it may cost less in the long run. I'm thinking of that Alaskan bridge that services 50 some odd residents on an island. What's wrong with a ferry? There are thousands of studies financed for stupid stuff. We can put these off for a while. Also what is being offset by private donations? Where does that money fit in? The Red Cross and Salvation Army doesn't seem to have had a big presence in Katrina, partly from red tape by the State of Louisiana. How much is left in their coffers? Why does the federal government have to pay for everything? Having been in Miami during Andrew, I know my company didn't get any federal money to repair major damage in several locations. I had to arrange for repairs to my mother's house and what insurance didn't cover, we had to pay. Where was the money then? I realize that during Andrew, the homes that were totally destroyed were not in the poorest parts of town, they were upper-class neighborhoods for the most part and most were insured. The major government expense would have been low-cost loans and FEMA crew expense for immediate relief. The cost noted in the thread of $20+ billion was the total cost, not what the government spent.

Just sounding off here.

Everyone, stay safe.

Some of the lawmakers are suggesting the drug benefit for seniors be delayed to help offset the cost of Katrina. (A pet peeve of mine regarding the senior's drug benefit is that President Bush saw fit to allow the drug manufacturers to charge full price for all of the drugs that will be covered, rather than negotiating a lower price, such as they pay in Canada, and in Europe; that is a huge windfall for the drugmakers). The lawmakers also are suggesting that some of the fat be cut, out of the Energy Bill that Congress passed recently, to help offset the Katrina/Rita costs. We should all be worried about who is going to be saddled with all of the costs. It's scary.

 

[dani]

It is a big worry. I wonder how many truly caring lawmakers will go back and check the spending bills that included some major pork for their districts and abandon these projects. If enough of the money is returned to the government, then it may cost less in the long run. I'm thinking of that Alaskan bridge that services 50 some odd residents on an island. What's wrong with a ferry? There are thousands of studies financed for stupid stuff. We can put these off for a while. Also what is being offset by private donations? Where does that money fit in? The Red Cross and Salvation Army doesn't seem to have had a big presence in Katrina, partly from red tape by the State of Louisiana. How much is left in their coffers? Why does the federal government have to pay for everything? Having been in Miami during Andrew, I know my company didn't get any federal money to repair major damage in several locations. I had to arrange for repairs to my mother's house and what insurance didn't cover, we had to pay. Where was the money then? I realize that during Andrew, the homes that were totally destroyed were not in the poorest parts of town, they were upper-class neighborhoods for the most part and most were insured. The major government expense would have been low-cost loans and FEMA crew expense for immediate relief. The cost noted in the thread of $20+ billion was the total cost, not what the government spent.

Just sounding off here.

Everyone, stay safe.

Hi BarnGoddess

Here's a piece on the Red Cross:

"Today, October 30 2001, the American Red Cross spitefully announced it's planned distribution for the 547 million dollars it collected in the name of the victims of the World Trade Center attack.

Every cent was collected "to help the families of the victims of the World Trade Center Disaster". So where are they spending the money???

They proudly announced today that 300 million out of the 547 million would actually go to victims. Well ain't that nice of them???? The other 247 million, a figure approaching 50%, would go to "new communication systems" (new phone banks from which to ask you for money) ... "diversity programs" (I'll let you figure that one out for yourselves) ... savings accounts for future attacks (interest bearing accounts profiting the Red Cross) ... "administration" (personal bank accounts of the executive officers) ... a new program to increase their blood inventory (marketing) ... and yes, finally ... 30 million to the new "public relations campaign" (again, self-serving marketing programs)." (more at link)

http://www.breakthechain.org/exclusives/donations2.html

Yesterday I heard a discussion on TV where it was said that the $61B will be spent on infrastructure only. This money is not targeted to help individuals to rebuild. Plus all the insurance companies are weaseling out of paying off on homeowner's claims. They said the cost of Katrina would probably be spread out over 10 years and just be added to the deficit.

It makes me wonder, too, where is the $700 + millions that the public has donated to Katrina victims?

dani

 

[Dark Knight]

Hi BarnGoddess

Here's a piece on the Red Cross:

"Today, October 30 2001, the American Red Cross spitefully announced it's planned distribution for the 547 million dollars it collected in the name of the victims of the World Trade Center attack.

Every cent was collected "to help the families of the victims of the World Trade Center Disaster". So where are they spending the money???

They proudly announced today that 300 million out of the 547 million would actually go to victims. Well ain't that nice of them???? The other 247 million, a figure approaching 50%, would go to "new communication systems" (new phone banks from which to ask you for money) ... "diversity programs" (I'll let you figure that one out for yourselves) ... savings accounts for future attacks (interest bearing accounts profiting the Red Cross) ... "administration" (personal bank accounts of the executive officers) ... a new program to increase their blood inventory (marketing) ... and yes, finally ... 30 million to the new "public relations campaign" (again, self-serving marketing programs)." (more at link)

http://www.breakthechain.org/exclusives/donations2.html

Yesterday I heard a discussion on TV where it was said that the $61B will be spent on infrastructure only. This money is not targeted to help individuals to rebuild. Plus all the insurance companies are weaseling out of paying off on homeowner's claims. They said the cost of Katrina would probably be spread out over 10 years and just be added to the deficit.

It makes me wonder, too, where is the $700 + millions that the public has donated to Katrina victims?

dani

The director at the time was forced to resign because of this, and they then stated that all donations would go to 9/11 victims and families.

I don't know about their plans for Katrina, though.

 

[Buzz Mills]

The director at the time was forced to resign because of this, and they then stated that all donations would go to 9/11 victims and families.

I don't know about their plans for Katrina, though.

In times of disaster, the dispersal of aid is very inefficent. There is a lot of waste, and a fair amount of corruption, and scamming. When the government stepped in and paid the 9/11 victim's families an average of $2 million, it made me wonder why I bothered to donate, as it almost seemed like an insult. The government setting precedents like this, didn't set well with the Oklahoma City victim's families, as they wondered where theirs was. Now, with multiple back-to-back crisises, the flow of donations may begin to dry up, especially if we begin to develop the opinion that the money isn't being used well.

 

[Shadow205]

Hey DK,

I have been gone all morning. Have the changed the path and site of landfall? Seems like what I am seeing has it going further NE of Galveston now toward LA?

 

[Dark Knight]

Hey DK,

I have been gone all morning. Have the changed the path and site of landfall? Seems like what I am seeing has it going further NE of Galveston now toward LA?

According to Accuweather, it is likely going to make a direct hit on Galveston tomorrow night or Saturday morning. I haven't seen the NHC's latest projection.

 

[Buzz Mills]

Hey DK,

I have been gone all morning. Have the changed the path and site of landfall? Seems like what I am seeing has it going further NE of Galveston now toward LA?

It's still early Shadow, but it does appear that it may make landfall East of Galveston, which will put Galveston on the safer side (West side) of Rita. Things may change, so stay tuned.

Hurricane Rita Position
http://tinyurl.com/7ju9l

Hurricane Rita Projected Path
http://tinyurl.com/c4fym

Hurricane Rita Strike Probabilities (Scroll Down)
http://tinyurl.com/8hqt6

Hurricane Rita Satellite Imagery (Patience Required)
http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy

 

[Gabby]

We're just coming to your house Gabby - be there around dinner - speaking of dinner, what are we having tonight?

I am making a buffet....

appetiser.... MOUNTAIN OYSTERS---

MEATS: Chittlins, BBQ COON, Possum, Crawdads

Veggies: Collard Greens, Poke Salad, Golden Hominy and Corn

Breads: flat corn pone..... lamp bread

deserts: figs, peaches, and plums

 

[Dark Knight]

I am making a buffet....

appetiser.... MOUNTAIN OYSTERS---

MEATS: Chittlins, BBQ COON, Possum, Crawdads

Veggies: Collard Greens, Poke Salad, Golden Hominy and Corn

Breads: flat corn pone..... lamp bread

deserts: figs, peaches, and plums

MOUNTAIN OYSTERS????????????

And what, no pie??? :crazy:

 

[Shadow205]

I am making a buffet....

appetiser.... MOUNTAIN OYSTERS---

MEATS: Chittlins, BBQ COON, Possum, Crawdads

Veggies: Collard Greens, Poke Salad, Golden Hominy and Corn

Breads: flat corn pone..... lamp bread

deserts: figs, peaches, and plums

Hey Gabby,

If it wern't for the Crawdads, I'd think you were in WV! Let me know when it's on the table and I'll be right over. I'll bring some Blackberry Dumplins for desert!

 

[kato]

That's the plan at this point....


Tex<hunkering with tight grip on tequila bottle>

I'm hunkering down with you. I just got home from trying to buy some milk and the grocery stores in this part of town are already closed. All the gas stations are closed or have lines a mile long with people fighting. It seems our whole townhouse complex will be staying.

 

[Shadow205]

Thanks Buzz & DK. Got the TV on switching between FOX & CNN but I get my best info from you guys!! You two are the Official WS Weather watchers! Thank you for your very informative info!

 

[Buzz Mills]

According to Accuweather, it is likely going to make a direct hit on Galveston tomorrow night or Saturday morning. I haven't seen the NHC's latest projection.

DK, in about 30 hours, or so, based on the current movement, Galveston should begin feeling the tropical storm winds of Rita. A direct hit on Galveston would be just about the worst disaster scenario possible.

 

[kato]

So, is Houston out of danger or what?