IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #34

[Aymstriss]

My exact thoughts too! We can go back and forth on "evidence", sightings, who was where and when, types of cars, bikes, witnesses, and even sexual/non-sexual, stranger/acquaintance, but the fact that has remained constant and factual is that Dan changed his plea the day before these girls went missing...for me this speaks volumes and has been my idea of motive from day 1!

Yes! Yes! Yes!

 

[iamnotagolem]

So Dan was going to give LE names and info on July 12 as part of his plea deal, but changed his mind. July 13 Lyric and Elizabeth disappeared.

I guess where I get confused is that Dan didn't narc out his pals, so there is no revenge motive, correct? Or was the plan already in motion and the kidnappers not get the memo that Dan changed his mind?

How does Elizabeth tie into all of this? Did taking Elizabeth ensure that people would pay attention as opposed to Lyric being the child of drug users? Which confuses me even more because if the intent was to hurt Dan then why take Elizabeth?

Then I come full circle and think that the people who cared the most about both Lyric and Elizabeth would be Drew and Heather, as they were Elizabeth's parents and had custody of Lyric for a few years. So if taking the cousins was about hurting someone then it seems most logical that the person they intended to hurt was Drew and Heather or maybe Wylma?

 

[RNER]

This is what I was trying to remember...thanks.

Hear me out here on this - I'm NOT saying anyone's drug connection thinking are necessarily wrong...I'm just trying to make sense of it.

Ok - so in an effort to shut Dan up these people just happened to drive to Evansdale on that Friday and they just happened to find Lyric and Elizabeth playing down at the lake unattended? And they also were able to not only pull this off with no visibility...but LE had Dan's phone (and phone records I'm sure) so they more than likely didn't make contact with Dan either since we know they checked out all the #'s in his phone (per interviews).


Not only am I struggling with the amount of luck these people had...but I still don't understand how doing this would possibly shut Dan (or anyone else in that family) up.

:dunno:

I feel that it was planned ahead of time and well-executed by someone that had information that he was going to change his plea...I highly doubt that he went into the courtroom and decided at the last minute on June 12th and without telling ANYONE that he wanted to go to trial. Tammy knew, because she stated he "wasn't ready to go to prison". Who else knew ahead of time and was going to be "snitched on" by him going to trial? I also don't think the girls were killed immediately (although I could be wrong). I think they were held for collateral to get Dan to change his mind and accept the plea deal, and when it appeared that he was going to trial, they were killed. He eventually accepted a plea deal (after the deaths), but now has the "you know what we are capable of if you snitch" over his and his family's head!

 

[janie]

This is what I was trying to remember...thanks.

Hear me out here on this - I'm NOT saying anyone's drug connection thinking are necessarily wrong...I'm just trying to make sense of it.

Ok - so in an effort to shut Dan up these people just happened to drive to Evansdale on that Friday and they just happened to find Lyric and Elizabeth playing down at the lake unattended? And they also were able to not only pull this off with no visibility...but LE had Dan's phone (and phone records I'm sure) so they more than likely didn't make contact with Dan either since we know they checked out all the #'s in his phone (per interviews).


Not only am I struggling with the amount of luck these people had...but I still don't understand how doing this would possibly shut Dan (or anyone else in that family) up.

:dunno:

Drug dealers often use disposable phones.

There is no evidence they were "playing at the lake." Perhaps they were told to meet someone at the lake, someone they weren't afraid of that they'd bumped into before?

Perhaps the training by Tammy about stranger danger that she discussed giving the girls on one of the HLN shows was training that was conducted when Lyric and Tammy's daughter were late coming home from the park 4 days prior? I remember the interview when Dan spoke of the girls being late coming home from the park and one could tell that it made Misty uncomfortable that Dan revealed that piece of information.

<modsnip>

Perhaps the FBI was certain the girls were still alive because LE knew the girls had been taken hostage during the plea deal negotiations that Dan put a halt to on July 12th? Maybe there was a hostage note left in the purse and is why the purse was left behind? Maybe LE didn't reveal the hostage note because it would have compromised the investigation?

I see lots of possibilities!

 

[Aymstriss]

I feel that it was planned ahead of time and well-executed by someone that had information that he was going to change his plea...I highly doubt that he went into the courtroom and decided at the last minute on June 12th and without telling ANYONE that he wanted to go to trial. Tammy knew, because she stated he "wasn't ready to go to prison". Who else knew ahead of time and was going to be "snitched on" by him going to trial? I also don't think the girls were killed immediately (although I could be wrong). I think they were held for collateral to get Dan to change his mind and accept the plea deal, and when it appeared that he was going to trial, they were killed. He eventually accepted a plea deal (after the deaths), but now has the "you know what we are capable of if you snitch" over his and his family's head!

I also think another possibility, the girls were taken in an attempt to get Dan to take the plea (see what we can do), which means there would be no trial, to testimony, giving names, etc (like you said). and then the situation blew up with everybody looking for girls, several LE agencies getting involved and so forth, that the scum that took the girls "panicked".

 

[iamnotagolem]

I feel that it was planned ahead of time and well-executed by someone that had information that he was going to change his plea...I highly doubt that he went into the courtroom and decided at the last minute on June 12th and without telling ANYONE that he wanted to go to trial. Tammy knew, because she stated he "wasn't ready to go to prison". Who else knew ahead of time and was going to be "snitched on" by him going to trial? I also don't think the girls were killed immediately (although I could be wrong). I think they were held for collateral to get Dan to change his mind and accept the plea deal, and when it appeared that he was going to trial, they were killed. He eventually accepted a plea deal (after the deaths), but now has the "you know what we are capable of if you snitch" over his and his family's head!

But isn't that the opposite of what happened? He was planning to snitch on July 12 but changed his mind and didn't?

Or am I the one that is confused?

 

[iamnotagolem]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-io...morrissey-postpones-drugs/t/story?id=16870546

Here is the article that says he backed out of his plea. I can't copy/paste the portion of relevance it's the first paragraph on the 2nd page.

 

[janie]

So Dan was going to give LE names and info on July 12 as part of his plea deal, but changed his mind. July 13 Lyric and Elizabeth disappeared.

I guess where I get confused is that Dan didn't narc out his pals, so there is no revenge motive, correct? Or was the plan already in motion and the kidnappers not get the memo that Dan changed his mind?

How does Elizabeth tie into all of this? Did taking Elizabeth ensure that people would pay attention as opposed to Lyric being the child of drug users? Which confuses me even more because if the intent was to hurt Dan then why take Elizabeth?

Then I come full circle and think that the people who cared the most about both Lyric and Elizabeth would be Drew and Heather, as they were Elizabeth's parents and had custody of Lyric for a few years. So if taking the cousins was about hurting someone then it seems most logical that the person they intended to hurt was Drew and Heather or maybe Wylma?

Why do you think Dan didn't narc on his pals? I figured he narc'd on anyone and everyone that would lighten his sentence except for maybe a family member or two? There have been a lot of meth busts in the past year in this town. Connected or not connected, I have no clue!

Perhaps people were monitoring Lyric's movements and the best opportunity just happened to be when she was riding bikes with her cousin Elizabeth and Elizabeth was just in the wrong place at the wrong time?

Perhaps the reason Lyric and her other cousin were late coming home from the park 4 days prior was because they were stalled by someone who was giving Dan a warning by stalling them and maybe telling the girls to give Dan a message from them and that made him change his mind on the 12th?

 

[RNER]

But isn't that the opposite of what happened? He was planning to snitch on July 12 but changed his mind and didn't?

Or am I the one that is confused?

He was "supposed to" plead guilty and accept a plea deal on July 12, 2012, but didn't!

So...in my opinion...if you find out who knew he was NOT going to accept the plea deal and that person(s) was going to be "snitched out" by Dan going to trial then you have the person(s) responsible for the kidnapping/deaths of Lyric and Elizabeth.

Some people feel that (if related to his plea deal), the person(s) responsible was someone he was going to "snitch out" by ACCEPTING the plea deal and the kidnapping was planned based on that. I think it was someone affected by him GOING TO TRIAL instead of plea deal, because a trial involves a lot more people/players/investigation/open doors that otherwise would not be revealed in a plea deal.

 

[threecrazykids]

Drug dealers often use disposable phones.

There is no evidence they were "playing at the lake." Perhaps they were told to meet someone at the lake, someone they weren't afraid of that they'd bumped into before?

Perhaps the training by Tammy about stranger danger that she discussed giving the girls on one of the HLN shows was training that was conducted when Lyric and Tammy's daughter were late coming home from the park 4 days prior? I remember the interview when Dan spoke of the girls being late coming home from the park and one could tell that it made Misty uncomfortable that Dan revealed that piece of information.

There is the rumor that Misty was heard by a neighbor saying, "tell him to bring them back," which would indicate there was knowledge of their captor(s)?

Perhaps the FBI was certain the girls were still alive because LE knew the girls had been taken hostage during the plea deal negotiations that Dan put a halt to on July 12th? Maybe there was a hostage note left in the purse and is why the purse was left behind? Maybe LE didn't reveal the hostage note because it would have compromised the investigation?

I see lots of possibilities!

Ok, I understand...let me ask some more questions :blushing:

If LE had a hostage note they wouldn't have ruled it an abduction a week later correct?
If LE had a hostage note they wouldn't have done the searches of the RSO's in the area and also the random check points would they?

Why, if they wanted Dan to shut up wouldn't they have just killed Dan...or Dan's mother, son, Misty? Why TWO little girls?

I guess I am still not following how any of this has/would shut Dan up. They were taking a HUGE risk that he would give up everyone and everything he's ever dealt with in regards to drugs PLUS murder charges by doing this.

I guess I always assumed that drug dealers didn't "play games". If they want someone shut up they shut them up...not play hostage situation games and "try to figure out who wants you to shut up". I figured if they were sending a message they'd do it right on his front yard with no question of why.

Keep in mind, this is Waterloo Iowa...not the cartel. Dan nor anyone in this entire extended family appeared to be living the plush life from his profitable big time drug sales so I just don't buy he's the kingpin who had big time buyers with big time $$.

 

[iamnotagolem]

He was "supposed to" plead guilty and accept a plea deal on July 12, 2012, but didn't!

Exactly! So where is the motive on behalf of his pals? Him not pleading guilty removed motive.

 

[janie]

Here is the Jane Velez interview where Dan discusses the incident at the park 4 days prior.

Iowa girl went missing days earlier - YouTube

 

[threecrazykids]

He was "supposed to" plead guilty and accept a plea deal on July 12, 2012, but didn't!

Correct...by pleading guilty and accepting the plea deal...that plea deal would have come in the form of NAMES.

And he backed out of giving names...

So are we just assuming these people were too busy watching every move of his daughter in the next 24 hours - they didn't have time to send anyone to the courthouse or to get ahold of Dan and find out whether he narc'd or not?

 

[janie]

Ok, I understand...let me ask some more questions :blushing:

If LE had a hostage note they wouldn't have ruled it an abduction a week later correct?
If LE had a hostage note they wouldn't have done the searches of the RSO's in the area and also the random check points would they?

Why, if they wanted Dan to shut up wouldn't they have just killed Dan...or Dan's mother, son, Misty? Why TWO little girls?

I guess I am still not following how any of this has/would shut Dan up. They were taking a HUGE risk that he would give up everyone and everything he's ever dealt with in regards to drugs PLUS murder charges by doing this.

I guess I always assumed that drug dealers didn't "play games". If they want someone shut up they shut them up...not play hostage situation games and "try to figure out who wants you to shut up". I figured if they were sending a message they'd do it right on his front yard with no question of why.

Keep in mind, this is Waterloo Iowa...not the cartel. Dan nor anyone in this entire extended family appeared to be living the plush life from his profitable big time drug sales so I just don't buy he's the kingpin who had big time buyers with big time $$.

We don't know the cartel isn't involved. There is information out there that Mexican cartels are HUGE in the Midwest.

Maybe Dan would have a large wad of money if he wasn't a user himself with an expensive habit?

How would Dan suffer if he were killed and left on his front porch? He'd feel nothing because he would be dead. Which would cause greater pain, his Mom being killed out of revenge or a precious little girl? Maybe no one was supposed to die but something went wrong?

 

[iamnotagolem]

We don't know the cartel isn't involved. There is information out there that Mexican cartels are HUGE in the Midwest.

Maybe Dan would have a large wad of money if he wasn't a user himself with an expensive habit?

How would Dan suffer if he were killed and left on his front porch? He'd feel nothing because he would be dead. Which would cause greater pain, his Mom being killed out of revenge or a precious little girl? Maybe no one was supposed to die but something went wrong?

I'm not trying to say Dan was a bad dad, but as far I remember he never had custody of Lyric and wasn't very involved in her life. I'm assuming that if he wasn't super involved in Lyric's life, he probably wasn't the favorite uncle of Elizabeth. So how would hurting one of his kids hurt him?

My dad was involved in drugs, if you wanted to hurt him you wouldn't kill his kids you'd steal his drugs. Sure he loved us, but being an addict makes the drugs more important than a child. If his child was so important he would have quit drugs to be a better parent.

Hope all of that makes sense.

 

[janie]

There are some who have the opinion that Dan killed the girls execution style. As he has not been named a suspect, they are unable to directly state it as it violates TOS. But that is a theory that is discussed quite frequently.

I would agree that Dans drug buddies would have stronger motive than Dan, IF he wouldn't have backed out of his plea the day before. To me the backing out of the plea negates the motive for his pals.

I have followed closely for a long time and never heard that theory of Dan killing them execution style. I can't envision that theory at all. Drugs or no drugs, part-time non-participating parent or not, I can't envision that at all.

 

[alliemay]

I would wonder, (if it had anything to do with Dan) why they would not have taken Lyric the week before, when she went missing at the other park? Why would this happen on Elizabeth "turf" if it had something to do with drugs?

 

[RNER]

Ok, I understand...let me ask some more questions :blushing:

If LE had a hostage note they wouldn't have ruled it an abduction a week later correct?
If LE had a hostage note they wouldn't have done the searches of the RSO's in the area and also the random check points would they?

Why, if they wanted Dan to shut up wouldn't they have just killed Dan...or Dan's mother, son, Misty? Why TWO little girls?

I guess I am still not following how any of this has/would shut Dan up. They were taking a HUGE risk that he would give up everyone and everything he's ever dealt with in regards to drugs PLUS murder charges by doing this.

I guess I always assumed that drug dealers didn't "play games". If they want someone shut up they shut them up...not play hostage situation games and "try to figure out who wants you to shut up". I figured if they were sending a message they'd do it right on his front yard with no question of why.

Keep in mind, this is Waterloo Iowa...not the cartel. Dan nor anyone in this entire extended family appeared to be living the plush life from his profitable big time drug sales so I just don't buy he's the kingpin who had big time buyers with big time $$.

Because 2 innocent little girls that disappear while riding their bikes to the lake on a nice summer day leaves the room for a lot of motives, methods, suspects, and speculation and sets up "the perfect crime" (so far)!

 

[threecrazykids]

Because 2 innocent little girls that disappear while riding their bikes to the lake on a nice summer day leaves the room for a lot of motives, methods, suspects, and speculation and sets up "the perfect crime" (so far)!

I see what you're saying...I understand that theory.

 

[iamnotagolem]

Let's say that one of Dan's associates is responsible for the girls' deaths. Surely LE has a list of names to weed out involvement, right? Unless all of his associates were involved and alibi'd each other out.