Found Deceased ID - Joshua Vallow, 7, & Tylee Ryan, 17, Rexburg, Sept 2019 *mom, stepfather found* #12

[Laughing]

So horrible that these two are still missing!

Hope LE has what they need to bring "mom" Lori in, just until she talks, of course.

JMHO YMMV

 

[CSIDreamer]

Totally MOO, and not even really an opinion at this point but a musing:
--"They" we're driving the Jeep (per BB)
--He was asked/chose not to disclose who was in the Jeep.

Is it possible Tylee was driving? The police are not naming the suspect because she is a minor? Perhaps the brainwashing runs deep with her--she's had so much upheaval in her life, Lori seems to be the only constant, and would therefore carry that much more influence. it would also give Tylee reason to be (and stay) in hiding.

I also feel like if they were dead you'd junk or burn their stuff (at least most of it), not put it in storage.

JMO

That's what I brought up last night. "They". ITA

 

[Trask]

Wow, thanks for the analysis of the book sales. If that's true, and I have no reason to doubt you are right, then I need to stop posting on Websleuths and use my free time to start writing e-books instead. LOL. From the few samples of Chad's books that I have read, I found his writing to be mediocre at best. But I suppose with his niche genre (LDS End-Times Fiction) many fans of that type of book would buy all of his books. I've noticed that there are even a few new reviews of his books from 2020, probably from people who saw this story in the news and bought his books. I'm not giving him a penny, but some people will just out of curiosity or a previous interest in that genre. MOO.

I was surprised by the number of ratings for some of Chad's books on goodreads. He also has some books that were realeased on Audible between July 2018 to July 2019. All but one is narrated by one of his sons. Indicative of nothing but worth noting, Chad narrated and released his final book on Audible the day after Charles was shot.

 

[indicolite22]

You think!? I wonder what insight he could offer. MOO

Lori's first two marriages were both fairly short. Her family didn't think highly of the husbands either (per family source on GH).

 

[BigAl16]

RE: Chad & books & publishing
I'm sorry, @BigAl16, but I believe you're seriously underestimating Chad's income - or at least what it was prior to these last few weeks/months. I haven't been watching the Amazon rankings perfectly, or completely, but the titles I have been watching have been consistently trending lower and lower in the rankings. And Amazon rankings can change quickly.

As of about a week ago, just on his Kindle titles that are available for purchase, I believe he was making, as a very low end guess, around $1000 a month on purchased Kindle books. It's not even possible to really make a stab at how much he was making with page reads on the series he has in Kindle Unlimited (KU).

For some example numbers. When I checked about a week ago, the majority of his series fiction titles were hovering in the 100,000-150,000 rank, with the lowest running no worse than 250,000. At the time, I did some figuring with book sales calculator, and it appeared he was averaging somewhere between 15-20 sales per month per book. There were just 10 books I was keeping track of. The price range for all but one of those was either $7.99 or $9.99. Either of those prices qualify for the 70% royalty rate.

If you figure 10 titles x 15 books/month x $7.99 x 70% = $838.95

And that's just sales of ebooks. No KU. No print books. Nobody else's titles. No audiobooks. And nothing at all published wide (not on Amazon), if there is any.

Audiobooks, along with podcasts, have made a HUGE jump in sales/listens this last couple of years. One of Daybell's sons is listed as the narrator of his audiobooks, so it's likely that the audiobooks were created at very little or no cost. Could potentially be making a decent chunk on them - some authors were reporting that up to a third of their income was coming from Audible in by the end of 2019.

Given the style of the covers, I doubt they paid anyone to design them. Probably done in-house. There seems to be no current advertising campaigns, so no money outlay for that.

There's not really any way whatsoever for me to make a decent stab at income from print or KU or wide. (If there is any. I haven't checked, and that would be way more time-consuming that I have patience for, when it's about someone else's books.)

Ditto on tracking or guessing at potential income from the rest of the titles published. Despite Spring Creek Book Company's website being down, and Archive.org & Google not having decent caches, I did find partial title lists, on OpenLibrary and Book Depository.

In summary... even today, some of his titles are jumping back up into the 100k rank range when I look, even though others are crashing to say, 800-900k. It's entirely possible he and Spring Creek were making a pretty decent chunk of change up until recently. (I noticed that the author people have been calling his "most famous" has a statement on her website calling him a "former publisher", with the publishing relationship ending in early 2019.)

Was it 30k a month? No idea, but there *are* quite a few authors out there making six figures with just ebook sales. Granted, a great many of those are in the romance and fantasy genres, but it's entirely possible he was doing quite well, since the niches he write in are a lot less crowded.

As always, this is MOO, and you're all free to disagree, because of course, without income or tax statements, we're all just guessing anyway. I just happen to believe that Chad might well have had access to more money than assumed, especially if the Daybell family tended toward saving rather than spending.

I'm not seeing how $1,000 a month from ebook sales through Amazon shows that I'm "seriously underestimating."

KU reads impact Amazon sales rank. My understanding, possibly incorrect, is that a sales rank of around 100,000 would indicate the equivalent of about 15 units sold per month. If that is a couple more units sold and higher pages read via KU that would actually be reflected in less income, not more.

I think I said that it was possible that he might have had a fairly high income from sales via Deseret Book and Seagull Book in the past since these two small chains are the big names in the world of Mormon literature, but both appear to have dropped Chad's books as well as others he published, so even if sales beyond Amazon were significant in the past (definitely a possiblity) that's no longer the case.

It really doesn't feel like we're that far apart though. I don't remember exactly what I said, but think it was that there was a decent possibilty that he did (or at least had before the two chains dropped him) been making the equivalent of a decent, average or higher than average salary (50K-100K year), but I didn't think there wa any way he made 30K a month (30K a year is another story).

 

[dog.gone.cute]

Good Morning, Y'all !

First, Subscribing.

Second, a huge THANK YOU to Gardener1850 for that phenomenal and well done Timeline! Without that Timeline, I would have been so lost trying to make sense of this case.

Third, I have few theories ... LOL ... but I need to go back through the Timeline and the updates here before I comment.

JMO and MOO ...I have followed a variety of cases over the years, but this one takes the cake

I just hope and pray those children are found soon!

MOO

 

[indicolite22]

Here's something else I thought of. The townhomes at 565 Pioneer Rd in Rexburg are two-story with a garage in the rear and front door opposite side. We've all said there is no way Chad couldn't have missed seeing the toys on the front porch. With this footage of all the kids' things in the storage unit. I'm not sure. The townhome Lori was in, #175, faces an inner yard and sidewalk and the front of another building. What if these people are storing personal items in the storage unit (early October) that belong to the children because the children have already been moved (September 24-October 1). There's a chance that CD moves in late October or early November and only enters through the garage. We know how sparse the home was in AZ from the bodycam footage. How likely is it that there's nothing to show children lived there? How likely is it that he never goes out the front door? The townhome is in the middle of the building. To get to the garage would be easiest through the unit rather than out the front door and around all the way north or south. Why use the front? If he never used the front, he wouldn't see the toys? If he did see the toys, it's easily explainable that they're from MB's children. The lies are really easy to keep him out of the loop of their existence for a few days before Nov 7 in Hawaii. Then, island paradise for a few weeks, back to Rexburg. If that's not CD in the storage unit, then he's easily unaware of the children. If the Nov 24 is him and Lori, still easy to say it's not Lori's children, or that they're deceased: "no minor children". I'm not saying this has to be true, but it's all very plausible IMO.

You forgot that Chad had known Lori for much longer. No way that he didn't know about her family situation (husband, kids) even before getting romantically involved with her, which was at least in January. Wasn't she once complaining on the podcast that "she didn't sign up for this life"?

 

[tealrose]

I was surprised by the number of ratings for some of Chad's books on goodreads. He also has some books that were realeased on Audible between July 2018 to July 2019. All but one is narrated by one of his sons. Indicative of nothing but worth noting, Chad narrated and released his final book on Audible the day after Charles was shot.

The release date on Audible isn’t the day that it’s uploaded. In fact, audiobooks are incredibly annoying regarding release date, because you can’t even choose the date at this time. The files would have been uploaded somewhere between several days and a few weeks prior. (It’s pretty much impossible for authors to schedule simultaneous releases between ebook and audio because of this you just don’t know when the audio will go live.)

Also, it certainly wouldn’t have been narrated that day. Too many audio hours. It takes quite a bit longer to record than ends up in the finished product, and even experienced narrators tend to record just a few hours a day.

 

[dog.gone.cute]

Any thoughts on what Justin is going to release tomorrow?

Justin Lum Fox 10 Phoenix
6 hrs ·
New developments in this saga. You will not want to miss what I’ve obtained. Back in the lab tomorrow night. Tune into FOX 10 Phoenix if you haven’t already. ️‍

Justin Lum Fox 10 Phoenix

Justin Lum Fox 10 Phoenix I’ll say this. My report will not be on the storage unit. Our friends at East Idaho News are beasts. Instead, three exclusive elements you won’t find anywhere else, especially any other AZ media outlet. This remains about JJ & Tylee and the truths that must be revealed. Get ready.

Justin Lum Fox 10 Phoenix

Hello,

I can't wait to see what bombshell Justin has ... I hope he posts it soon !

 

[utahobserver]

Based on other things Lori has said, i have thought that she was referring to some sort of Spiritual Death here. It is common in some religious traditions to state that someone has died and been reborn. Galatians 2:20 specifically, "I have been crucified with Christ, and i no longer live, but Christ lives in me." So, its perfectly reasonable to assume she is speaking spirit lingo. Perhaps still as a deflection; nevertheless, it makes the statement less confusing (if that's the case) and less damning. I wonder when her father and Tylee were "saved" or "christened" or whatever (i'm not sure what mormons believe here or, better stated, the AVOWists). If Tylee committed his life to the church a year before her father then that is what she is speaking about imo. moo

I also thought this supposed statement had something to do with her spiritual beliefs, though I think they are delusional. This snip from the divorce papers Charles filed made me think that a Tylee may now be someone else:

“The next day Father was on a business trip in Houston and during another phone conversation she kept referring to Father as ‘Nick Schneider’ instead of Father’s name. Father asked who Nick Schneider was and Mother told him that Nick was Father’s real name because Nick had killed Father and taken his identity.”

 

[indicolite22]

I also thought this supposed statement had something to do with her spiritual beliefs, though I think they are delusional. This snip from the divorce papers Charles filed made me think that a Tylee may now be someone else:

“The next day Father was on a business trip in Houston and during another phone conversation she kept referring to Father as ‘Nick Schneider’ instead of Father’s name. Father asked who Nick Schneider was and Mother told him that Nick was Father’s real name because Nick had killed Father and taken his identity.”

IMO, it's questionable that she really believed that, but I also don't know why she would make up such a bizarre story (and others). To what effect? Maybe she was having an affair with a Nick Schneider and it was a slip of the tongue.

 

[Rush4087]

I'm not seeing how $1,000 a month from ebook sales through Amazon shows that I'm "seriously underestimating."

KU reads impact Amazon sales rank. My understanding, possibly incorrect, is that a sales rank of around 100,000 would indicate the equivalent of about 15 units sold per month. If that is a couple more units sold and higher pages read via KU that would actually be reflected in less income, not more.

I think I said that it was possible that he might have had a fairly high income from sales via Deseret Book and Seagull Book in the past since these two small chains are the big names in the world of Mormon literature, but both appear to have dropped Chad's books as well as others he published, so even if sales beyond Amazon were significant in the past (definitely a possiblity) that's no longer the case.

It really doesn't feel like we're that far apart though. I don't remember exactly what I said, but think it was that there was a decent possibilty that he did (or at least had before the two chains dropped him) been making the equivalent of a decent, average or higher than average salary (50K-100K year), but I didn't think there wa any way he made 30K a month (30K a year is another story).

I agree BigAl. I don't think Lori married CD for money (and at the time they were having an affair, I don't think he had that much - look at the Rexburg house..). I think rather it was infatuation with (what Lori bizarrely saw) as power and influence. She clearly fell under a deep spell from his books. She's was marrying the prophet himself.

There's a chance Lori knew that perhaps CD had upped the payout on TD's life insurance, and thought she would benefit in some secondary way (at least until she could off him too..), but there's been little proof of this (or an amount). Plus, Lori may have been thinking she'd just scored on a 2m life insurance payout from CV..

In fact, maybe CD married HER for the money. I've been bashed for saying it before, but I've never bought the mid-life crisis, chasing-a-dancing-blond thing as sufficient motive - or that Lori was all that (she's nearly 50 years old). If CD had money (or was about to have big money from life insurance proceeds) and wanted to change his life and galavant on a beach in HI, why marry at all?

 

[Gardener1850]

Just noting: The truck seen on video at Lori's Rexburg storage unit in October:

Lori Daybell abandoned a storage unit in Rexburg full of children's items | East Idaho News

Matches the truck Alex said was his parked in the driveway in Chandler when Charles was shot July 11th from the body cam footage: CHANDLER PD BODY CAM: ***WARNING***... - Justin Lum Fox 10 Phoenix

 

[caseface]

I have actually heard these types of things before but only in the context of people who are strung out on bath salts in particular but also meth. She has some sort of psychosis going on. It could be from drugs mixed with mental illness or just mental illness. Spiritual folk enjoy dabbling in hallucinogens to have visions, which sounds up Chad's alley. All of this is mere speculation; however, i do believe it is worth mentioning in trying to understand Lori. She is living in a mixed reality of sorts for sure. People with these types of problems often (though not always) have troubled childhoods. What do we know about Lori's childhood? If we understand that, we can perhaps better predict her motives and actions. moo

 

[dixiegirl1035]

The 27th of November I think. Also, it wasn't a phone call, they physically showed up. Not knowing which kind of "call" you're referring to. Jmo.

Thanks, ok.. so LE appeared at his house afterwards on Nov 27th, and he then called Lori and had a short call. I was misremembering that LE called him, and he called Lori w/o realizing that LE showed up in person.

Appreciate the clarification.

 

[Birmingplumb]

Book material from book guy?

 

[Trask]

The release date on Audible isn’t the day that it’s uploaded. In fact, audiobooks are incredibly annoying regarding release date, because you can’t even choose the date at this time. The files would have been uploaded somewhere between several days and a few weeks prior. (It’s pretty much impossible for authors to schedule simultaneous releases between ebook and audio because of this you just don’t know when the audio will go live.)

Also, it certainly wouldn’t have been narrated that day. Too many audio hours. It takes quite a bit longer to record than ends up in the finished product, and even experienced narrators tend to record just a few hours a day.

Honestly wasn't making much of this. Just pointing out the irony of his business humming along at that particular time. Also didn't think he narrated his book on the same day it was released. That was a badly worded sentence on my part.

 

[Madison418]

DBM

 

[RexburgSleuth]

Just noting: The truck seen on video at Lori's Rexburg storage unit in October:
View attachment 230117
Lori Daybell abandoned a storage unit in Rexburg full of children's items | East Idaho News

Matches the truck Alex said was his parked in the driveway in Chandler when Charles was shot July 11th from the body cam footage: CHANDLER PD BODY CAM: ***WARNING***... - Justin Lum Fox 10 Phoenix

Maybe it was actually his to begin with (F-150 STX package), and not Charles' F-150 Platinum (some of the photos of JJ have the Platinum badge on the door). The front grill is different.

Edit: I removed the exclamation: "Good! At least he didn't take the dead man's truck!" There's nothing good here. He took the man's life.

 

[Ohmeohmy]

Agreed. I think they are in a longer affair beginning way before January 2019. The date of January 2019 is when CV shows his sister Kay videos that Lori has been sending of herself. Chad has to know about both Tylee and JJ. She has to make arrangements for the kids each day including therapy and appointments for JJ. I would bet Chad was used as a sounding board for Lori as they start with an emotional affair and it moves forward. You dont just move in with this woman a couple days after wife of 30 yrs is buried not knowing about a few key players. I dont see him as a bumbling idiot. I would describe him as a "wanna be". Wanted to be that popular kid and center of attention with the hot blonde chick. Wanted this spotlight as a visionary and now will have dreams and visions to fit this story line.