• #501
  • #502
  • #503
This is what I keep coming back to - Trumps statements about this whole thing. He’s calling it a war, he’s saying our troops may die and basically justifying it as just a part of war, he’s saying there is an imminent threat to the US. So if they are planning on this being 4 weeks of drone bombing and targeted attacks, what is magically going to happen after those 4 weeks? We completely clear out the current regime and then what? I haven’t seen any articles or comments here about the end goal of this whole thing. Yes, we took out their current leader and some of the regime but that’s not liberating anyone without any sort of new government in place that won’t be similar to the old one. Nothing we have done so far has liberated anyone and I fail to see how anyone will be liberated after Trumps magical 4 week “non-war” war.
There might not be a lot of discussion about what happens next here, but there are plenty of articles and MSM discussion about a potential framework for a new Iranian government, or at least a transitional one until democratic elections can be held.

The Shah was deposed/overthrown back in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution. The Shah's son, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, has expressed a desire and willingness to return to Iran and lead the country as it transitions to a democratic form of government.

It is almost certain that should the Iranian populace rise up to topple the islamist regime, Reza Pahlavi will play a critical role in becoming at least the titular head of the country in the interim, if not the long-term. The new government will look nothing like the current repressive regime.

Iran under Pahlavi would almost certainly return to its pre-1979 modern, more westernized society.
Say bye-bye to the burkhas, ladies.

There's nothing "magical" about war, and POTUS has never used that word to describe the massive military operation our forces have undertaken.

But a lot can happen in 4 weeks.
Israel single-handedly won a war against Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon AND Iraq in only 6 days back in '67.

5 against 1.
6 days.
Comprehensive victory.

So there's that.

JMO.
 
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  • #504
<modsnip: quoted post removed>

Iran striking out is a sign of desperation. The Ayatollah didn't fear death, but I'm sure he didn't want dozens of top leadership to be killed with him, along with his family.

Hezbollah has been surprisingly restrained, likely because they've been crippled (literally and figuratively).

The markets won't respond well, and oil prices will probably surge. All expected.

I can't imagine anything has happened that wasn't planned for. I know I expected Iran to have achieved a far greater degree destruction than they have at this point.
 
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  • #505
There might not be a lot of discussion about what happens next here, but there are plenty of articles and MSM discussion about a potential framework for a new Iranian government, or at least a transitional one until democratic elections can be held.

The Shah was deposed/overthrown back in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution. The Shah's son, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, has expressed a desire and willingness to return to Iran and lead the country as it transitions to a democratic form of government.

It is almost certain that should the Iranian populace rise up to topple the islamist regime, Reza Pahlavi will play a critical role in becoming at least the titular head of the country in the interim, if not the long-term. The new government will look nothing like the current repressive regime.

Iran under Pahlavi would almost certainly return to its pre-1979 modern and more westernized society.
Say bye-bye to the burkhas and hello to the daisy dukes, ladies.

There's nothing "magical" about war, and POTUS has never used that word to describe the massive military operation our forces have undertaken.

But a lot can happen in 4 weeks.
Israel single-handedly won a war against Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon AND Iraq in only 6 days back in '67.

5 against 1.
6 days.
Comprehensive victory.

So there's that.

JMO.
Iran is very different from Iraq and Afghanistan.


IMO: Israel wants to knee-cap Iran. Sure a regime change would be nice, but they already have the ducks lined up. Numerous articles and names are out there. They are all part of Iran's IR innercircle and do not include Pahlavi. Sure, we can bomb those new people, but more will just fill their place.

Although Israel won a war against all those countries, it did not force a regime change. Additionally, Israel has also spent over two years fighting people in their own backyard. (Since Oct 2023) To the best of my knowledge, they are still trying to win that war.
 
  • #506
Iran is very different from Iraq and Afghanistan.


IMO: Israel wants to knee-cap Iran. Sure a regime change would be nice, but they already have the ducks lined up. Numerous articles and names are out there. They are all part of Iran's IR innercircle and do not include Pahlavi. Sure, we can bomb those new people, but more will just fill their place.

Although Israel won a war against all those countries, it did not force a regime change. Additionally, Israel has also spent over two years fighting people in their own backyard. (Since Oct 2023) To the best of my knowledge, they are still trying to win that war.
IMO:

The next government won't be part of IR's inner circle.

The majority of Iranians are Persians.
Persians.
Not Arabs.

The US and Israel are setting the table so that the majority of Iranians can take back their country, if they have the will to do so.

Israel already knee-capped the islamists in Iran when they (and we) bombed their nuclear programs into oblivion.
Israel is now giving the Persians a leg up in their struggle to wrest back control of their country and restore their culture.

A non-islamist terror state is the goal.
Iran in its current iteration poses an existential threat to the entire planet.
 
  • #507

 
  • #508
  • #509
IMO:

The next government won't be part of IR's inner circle.

The majority of Iranians are Persians.
Persians.
Not Arabs.

The US and Israel are setting the table so that the majority of Iranians can take back their country, if they have the will to do so.

Israel already knee-capped the islamists in Iran when they (and we) bombed their nuclear programs into oblivion.
Israel is now giving the Persians a leg up in their struggle to wrest back control of their country and restore their culture.

A non-islamist terror state is the goal.
Iran in its current iteration poses an existential threat to the entire planet.
And how will their be assurances that it won't be? They don't have "free and fair elections" there. Their constitution doesn't even allow it. Even their presidential candidate must be preapproved by the Supreme Leader. And the succession is already in progress.

I don't know where you get that it won't be part of the IR because they have been the IR since 1979. Just because they're Persian doesn't mean they aren't an IR. (Sorry, I can't type it out. It's too raw for me, still after all these years)


Live-tracker-02-1772362251.png

According to Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, the transitional council will govern the country until an 88-member panel called the Assembly of Experts chooses a new supreme leader after almost 37 years of rule by Khamenei.

His killing on Saturday by the joint United States and Israeli forces has raised crucial questions about Iran’s future.

Although the leadership council will govern in the interim, the Assembly of Experts “must, as soon as possible,” pick a new supreme leader, according to the Iranian constitution.



 
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  • #510
This is interesting - Reza Pahlavi may be the needed bridge in leadership for Iran
He would not be accepted there.

He has not been there in almost 50 years.

I personally think he would be great, but I don't think he would be accepted there.

Now if the IR topples, (I wish it would) then I could see him as an advisor, but I don't think he would be accepted to run to the country.
 
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  • #511

I saw Larijani's name mentioned last week. I read that Khamenei wanted to name him as successor.
 
  • #512
  • #513
I saw Larijani's name mentioned last week. I read that Khamenei wanted to name him as successor.
Yeah, they've removed an eighty seven year old ruler and cleared the way for a motivated, experienced and politically astute heir-apparent who is two decades younger.

MOO
 
  • #514
Yeah, they've removed an eighty seven year old ruler and cleared the way for a motivated, experienced and politically astute heir-apparent who is two decades younger.

MOO
We're two days in. President Trump has suggested a timeline of four weeks. The US/Israel have also attacked the Revolutionary Guard, not just Khamenei. We don't know how much else might happen over the next days or weeks. We don't know if Iran will surrender and acquiesce to US demands. If they do, I would fear that would rule out a fresh, democratic government and the US might just agree to work with a modified non-Khamenei government. But we can only wait and see.
 
  • #515
These are real people in the broad region that are being impacted. The effects are rippling through the region. So many in the US don't have any connection to the region.

My friend and ex-colleague is of Lebanese heritage. He was born in LA, but grew up in Canada. His wife is from Lebanon and she refused to come back to Canada with their Canadian citizen children after one summer vacation in Lebanon. His kids are there. He is worried for them. (to be clear, he and his wife are Catholic, not Muslim) Of course he is fearful for the safety of his children.

Trump and Netanyahu decided to start a war in the Middle East (despite having said that Iran's nuclear program was decimated 8 months ago). And now everyone in that region is at immediate risk. What is the goal here? I don't believe it is about making a better life for Iranians. I believe it's about supporting Israel. What was the immediate threat? Didn't Trump recently beg for the Nobel Peace Prize? And now he's launched numerous attacks in various countries since the beginning of his current term (Venezuela, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq). So what's up with that? Is he into peace or not?
 
  • #516
These are real people in the broad region that are being impacted. The effects are rippling through the region. So many in the US don't have any connection to the region.

My friend and ex-colleague is of Lebanese heritage. He was born in LA, but grew up in Canada. His wife is from Lebanon and she refused to come back to Canada with their Canadian citizen children after one summer vacation in Lebanon. His kids are there. He is worried for them. (to be clear, he and his wife are Catholic, not Muslim) Of course he is fearful for the safety of his children.

Trump and Netanyahu decided to start a war in the Middle East (despite having said that Iran's nuclear program was decimated 8 months ago). And now everyone in that region is at immediate risk. What is the goal here? I don't believe it is about making a better life for Iranians. I believe it's about supporting Israel. What was the immediate threat? Didn't Trump recently beg for the Nobel Peace Prize? And now he's launched numerous attacks in various countries since the beginning of his current term (Venezuela, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq). So what's up with that? Is he into peace or not?
The goal is about eliminating the threat Iran has posed for decades, and has only grown with their development of ballistic missiles, suicide drones, and supplying those things to terrorist groups. Tentacles (Hezbollah, Hamas) can grow back unless you destroy the head.

And to be clear, this war has been going on for decades now. It was started by Iran.

Those strikes you mention with the exception of Venezuela were on ISIS militants. They are a very dangerous bunch, as we've seen.

The strike on Yemen was against Iranian proxies, the Houthi's. They have attacked shipping lanes which has caused absolute chaos.
 
  • #517
Farnaz Fassihi
March 1, 2026, 11:24 p.m. ET29 minutes ago
Farnaz Fassihi

Reporting from New York City
Iranians received a text message from a verified Revolutionary Guards number early Sunday morning warning them against taking to the streets to protest. “Any action that disrupts security will be viewed as cooperation with the enemy and will be met with the iron fist of the intelligence wing of the revolutionary guards,” read the message, which was viewed by The New York Times.

 
  • #518
These are real people in the broad region that are being impacted. The effects are rippling through the region. So many in the US don't have any connection to the region.

My friend and ex-colleague is of Lebanese heritage. He was born in LA, but grew up in Canada. His wife is from Lebanon and she refused to come back to Canada with their Canadian citizen children after one summer vacation in Lebanon. His kids are there. He is worried for them. (to be clear, he and his wife are Catholic, not Muslim) Of course he is fearful for the safety of his children.

Trump and Netanyahu decided to start a war in the Middle East (despite having said that Iran's nuclear program was decimated 8 months ago). And now everyone in that region is at immediate risk. What is the goal here? I don't believe it is about making a better life for Iranians. I believe it's about supporting Israel. What was the immediate threat? Didn't Trump recently beg for the Nobel Peace Prize? And now he's launched numerous attacks in various countries since the beginning of his current term (Venezuela, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq). So what's up with that? Is he into peace or not?
I always get Lebanese reels on my FB feed. Especially since the pope was there in December. I also get all the Armenian restraurants, camps, churches and neighborhoods there. It looked like things were picking up. Now Beirut is getting bombed again. Of course, it wasn't Israel's fault since Hezbollah bombed Israel first...but.... sigh.........
 
  • #519
Farnaz Fassihi
March 1, 2026, 11:24 p.m. ET29 minutes ago
Farnaz Fassihi

Reporting from New York City
Iranians received a text message from a verified Revolutionary Guards number early Sunday morning warning them against taking to the streets to protest. “Any action that disrupts security will be viewed as cooperation with the enemy and will be met with the iron fist of the intelligence wing of the revolutionary guards,” read the message, which was viewed by The New York Times.

Yep, they're brutal....
 
  • #520

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