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- Oct 8, 2022
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I have yet to see a timeline about a conflict from Trump that was actually accurate. I'll happily eat my words if this wraps up neatly in four weeks, but I doubt I'll need to.We're two days in. President Trump has suggested a timeline of four weeks. The US/Israel have also attacked the Revolutionary Guard, not just Khamenei. We don't know how much else might happen over the next days or weeks. We don't know if Iran will surrender and acquiesce to US demands. If they do, I would fear that would rule out a fresh, democratic government and the US might just agree to work with a modified non-Khamenei government. But we can only wait and see.
This is a system of military and government that seems highly organised and with a design that is able to accommodate losses and replace important figures swiftly. They're not just going to fall over themselves and surrender to occupation or subjugation because of the loss of their leader, and if that is the assumption by Trump, then this isn't going to go the way he hopes it will.
MOO