• #81
The death of Khamenei is something I have waited for since 1979!
 
  • #82
Check out her X account, the people of Iran ARE celebrating.

Not everybody is celebrating. They never are. There will always be some pro and some against. imo


“I was in Baghdad in 2003 when the United States promised Iraqis freedom through bombs. What Iraqis got instead was death and destruction,” Jarrar told Al Jazeera. “Now President Trump is making the same false promise to the Iranian people. Make no mistake: you cannot bomb a people into freedom.”

Trump had told the Washington Post that all he wants is “freedom for the people” of Iran.

Jarrar said the killing of dozens of girls in an Israeli attack in the city of Minab in the south of Iran “is not a war gone wrong”.

“This is what war looks like,” he added.

 
  • #83
There not going to be a war as far as the US is concerned. This is a naval and Air Force operation. There is no universe where US boots are on the ground.

It’ll last days or weeks, and that will be the end of it.
Okay. But try to imagine this from the point of view of the person whose city is being attacked. Days or weeks is a lifetime of impact if it's your home bombed.

These actions just make life even worse in Iran.

MOO
 
  • #84
Okay. But try to imagine this from the point of view of the person whose city is being attacked. Days or weeks is a lifetime of impact if it's your home bombed.

These actions just make life even worse in Iran.

MOO
Of course. But this is a regime that just killed at least 30,000 of its own people, and has oppressed those same people for their entire lives.

In the short term this obviously makes things worse though.
 
  • #85
I’m old enough to remember when the Shah fell and the Ayatollah took over.

I remember the American hostages who were held by Iran for 444 or so days.

Iran is a state sponsor of terror. Obama gave Iran billions of dollars and yet they’ve been working on nuclear capability all along.

The thousands of Iranian citizens who’ve been killed for protesting against the regime indicates to me how much the regular citizens want to be free.

JMO
bbm

False. all he did was unfreeze their assets.
 
  • #86
  • #87
Okay. But try to imagine this from the point of view of the person whose city is being attacked. Days or weeks is a lifetime of impact if it's your home bombed.

These actions just make life even worse in Iran.

MOO
I understand the concern about the country being attacked for, as you say, weeks and a lifetime. They have lived with oppression for decades and now may have chance for change and choices in how their country will move forward. Isn't that something positive for Iran?
 
  • #88
$70 to $73 sounds like a very minor increase to me. For a major event I'd expect at least $150. I realise the current low prices might not support $150, but even so, $3 is a tiny increase. If the strait of Hormuz is blocked for a week or more I would expect oil prices to go up quite a bit more. I'm not all that up on current oil prices, I admit. But if the markets foresaw something long term and major that would last for months I think they'd react stronger than this?

But I have noticed that things like this tend to happen at weekends when markets are closed so that no one can watch the markets react in real time and things have a chance to settle before Monday morning opening in Europe.
Yup, we'll see the impact when markets open on Monday.

"Around 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway between Iran and Oman, every day. It accounts for about 20 percent of global oil trade. After the American and Israeli attack, it appears that Iran has blocked the strait. This is causing significant tension in the oil and shipping sectors.

Oil prices have already risen last week due to tensions in the Middle East. The expectation is that oil prices will rise further on Monday when the market reopens. This will translate into higher prices at the gas pump."

 
  • #89
I understand the concern about the country being attacked for, as you say, weeks and a lifetime. They have lived with oppression for decades and now may have chance for change and choices in how their country will move forward. Isn't that something positive for Iran?
No. Not like this.

It's horrifying.

MOO
 
  • #90
bbm

False. all he did was unfreeze their assets.
Yes, I believe you are correct. But it had the same effect—-unfreezing billions of dollars allowed Iran to build nuclear capability.

And remember, they consider the U.S. the Great Satan. I wasn’t looking forward to them unleashing hell on America. Much prefer that we unleashed hell on them.

IMO
 
  • #91
Yes, I believe you are correct. But it had the same effect—-unfreezing billions of dollars allowed Iran to build nuclear capability.
Which they agreed with they would not do.
 
  • #92
  • #93
"Harlan Ullman, the chairman of the Killowen Group, says the US and Israeli strikes on Iran were “very impressive,” but that Tehran’s military capabilities remain “substantial” and will continue to pose a security threat in the region.

Ullman, a former US Navy officer, also said that based on his analysis, the joint US-Israel operation has not yet made a decisive blow on the Iranian leadership.

“Decapitation only works when you get all the leaders. And I do not think we got all the leaders because it’s very, very difficult,” he said adding that even if Khamenei is killed, others could emerge in his place including Ali Larijani, the head of the country’s National Security Council.

“If Ali Larijani is still alive, he is a very formidable enemy,” Ullman said referring to him as the designated Khamenei successor.

The analyst also warned that Iran might still possess large armaments including drones to launch a drawn-out counter-attack.

“Remember it has been in the drone business for a very, very long time. It has been selling lots of drones to Russia. So, I think they’ve got a lot of stuff hidden away,” he said."

 
  • #94
Yes, I believe you are correct. But it had the same effect—-unfreezing billions of dollars allowed Iran to build nuclear capability.
fair to say it has a similar effect. but a worthwhile distinction IMO, because the false mental image of us paying them taxpayer money influenced the politics of it, and I think the incorrect impression that it was on ongoing flow of money transfers played a role in our strange decision to withdraw from jcpoa.

with the international oversight that had been in place during jcpoa, it would have been hard for them to refine weapons-grade material without anyone knowing. and at the time we pulled out, Iran was in compliance according to our own people.

I am not surprised in the least if they resumed their military nuclear program after we abrogated the deal. why wouldn't they? I would if I were them. nonsensical decision on our part.

edit:
here's one thing I'm wondering, and it's a question for anyone. is there any evidence they did anything in violation of the treaty during the 2 years it was in effect?
 
  • #95
It’ll last days or weeks, and that will be the end of it.
Ok I just wanted to make sure this won't be another Iraq.
 
  • #96
How do you suggest the Iran dictatorship regime be stopped so that it's not horrifying?
Allow refuges into the US to create a brain drain unless life in Iran is more appealing, create exchange programs, give educational visas to, again, create brain drain, condition trade on democratic institutional strength and conforming with defending human rights, making sure Iranian children have food and education- stuff like that.
 
  • #97
"The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is insisting on the swift appointment of the next leader of the Islamic Republic after Ali Khamenei's death, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International ... seeking to finalize the decision within the coming hours, specifically by dawn on Sunday, March 1.
...

The IRGC is pushing for the appointment of the next leader to take place outside the legally prescribed procedures. Reports received by Iran International also indicate that following the killing of Khamenei in joint US-Israeli strikes, disarray and confusion have intensified within the Islamic Republic’s security and military structures.
...

The IRGC is also reportedly deeply concerned that once daylight breaks on Sunday, people across various parts of the country may take to the streets, potentially triggering a new wave of gatherings and protests."

 
  • #98
Ok I just wanted to make sure this won't be another Iraq.
No one wants that, and it would be an absolute political nightmare.

But it makes absolutely no sense militarily, and there clearly no plans for that.

My only concern is that this stops too soon.
 
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  • #99
BBM - have you done a simple search of Iran celebrations? Because there are many videos out there.



Check out her X account, the people of Iran ARE celebrating.

Did you read the whole thing?

It says that the Iranian people are afraid they will be left alone.

It's easy to be glad a bad guy is dead.

But American and Israeli attacks appear, at least to the people this twitter contributor quoted, to not really be about the Iranian people.

MOO

CBS News contributor Masih Alinejad, whose parents and siblings live in Iran, says the Iranians she's spoken to are overcome with joy that "their killers have finally been the target of the U.S. government and they see justice; but at the same time, they are worried, they're concerned that if this is not going to lead to regime change... if the American government, the Israeli government only target the military leaders, not the political leaders, then the people of Iran are going to be left alone."
 
  • #100

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