Originally Posted by cluciano63
Or perhaps vice versa...I think this is either custodial for a potential break-up in the works, or a ploy for attention, or an attempt to take the focus off of some other problem in the marriage, that kind of thing, with Lisa not having meant to be harmed, but something may have gone wrong if the "helpers" of the instigator were intoxicated, for example. Just a theory, JMO.
What I've been wondering about is if it has to do with paternity?
Maybe statistics can shed some light on some things:
I spoke with a family member who is formerly LE and now works in security consulting. He specifically works with other retired FBI and SS officers.
He'd been out of KC and had'nt heard about the case during the first week. When he got back I asked him "so what do your FBI contacts think of this case." He said, "Well, I haven't heard about it yet but if you want the physical description of the abductor, here you go: female, in her 20s to low 30s, overweight or obese, low-income. In the huge majority of these cases, this is the description of the kind of person who takes an infant."
Not long ago he and his co-workers found an infant abducted within 6 hours after presenting this description to potential witnesses. They said they saw a woman who fit this description, and that woman was found with the baby and brought home safe a sound.
So, maybe we should couple the LE-developed description with what else we know about crimes. Statistically crime follows crime. Meaning, where there's drug use there is drug dealing, where there is drug-dealing, there is likely to be more crime like assault, battery, aggravated battery, kidnapping, and murder.
Where there is theft there is more likely to be assault, battery, etc.. Where there are ex-cons there is a statistically higher likelihood of other crime. (I'm not tarring all ex-offenders here, just quoting objective data.)
We've got an area of town where there is a preponderance of low-income housing, there are people involved in drug use, alcohol use, and at least one ex-con.
Now we have a missing little girl.
So we ask one question:
What's the statistical incidence of children being abducted due to marital instability in an
intact home? Answer: so rare it's within the bottom 1 percent. Regardless of our suspicions about their home life. The
fact is that the Irwin home was
intact on 10/4/11. Was it a blended family? Yes. Were they married? No. (I should note that I am in a blended family and my SO and I are not married. She has two daughters and I consider them my own. We've been together for over 15 years, and have had no problems outside the fact that one of our kids can't clean her room.)
What's the statistical evidence suggesting that a different, more serious crime, can be tied with drug use, theft or ex-cons? It's
exponentially more likely than an abduction from an intact family over domestic strife.
I'm not trying to tear down anyone's theory, I'm just using the data we know to be the devil's advocate.
The most likely reality, from the data, is parent-involved death of the infant. (Hate to say it).
The NEXT most likely involved reality, from the data, is a woman in her 20s who is over weight took the baby and this crime is committed in the context of other, less severe crimes (ie drug use, dealing, theft, etc..)
So, let's look at MW and DB.
http://videos.kansascity.com/vmix_hosted_apps/p/media?id=118607431
They both fit the description of an infant-child abductor to a tee.
Given the description, and the other criminal elements involved with these folks, I'd be focusing my time on one of these two or their relationship to one another. How does it tie in with ancillary crime in the area, the characters who might be going in and out of that house with 8 people in it.
I think we're going to find that this little girl's disappearance is tied in with other crime and criminals in the area. Whether mom/dad had a hand in it or not.
Just my .02.
