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IMO not likely at all. For John’s head to hit the spoiler without his legs hitting the bumper, his body would need to be levitating at spoiler height.I’m wondering if the spoiler above the Lexus hatch would line up with John O’Keefe’s head injury?
It’s just not how pedestrian impact works. The lower body is almost always hit first, causing the person to the flip or tumble.
There’s no evidence of bumper injuries to John’s lower body, other than the tiny bruise you mentioned which could have been from any minor bump in the days before his death.
IMO the idea that John’s head somehow hit the spoiler is completely oppositional to the laws of physics.