MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #6

[Kickoff61]

Even if he was lucky enough to get away, that day...if it was that sloppy, I believe police had some expert crime scene people (special unit ) on this and they would have found enough for more headway by now. IMO

 

[ForensicMass]

I agree. I think he got lucky too. Nobody saw him come in contact with her, despite the amount of cars that travel that road, Nobody saw smoke, from the fire, if it was fairly large in size, nobody heard screams, if there were any, and most important, he got away.

Totally. I mean, based on her location, it would only take one nosy princetonite to bring him down. And based on the police logs, there's plenty of those to go around. ! No offense meant of course . People there just like to make sure the places stays as it has for a hundred years.

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree. I think he got lucky too. Nobody saw him come in contact with her, despite the amount of cars that travel that road, Nobody saw smoke, from the fire, if it was fairly large in size, nobody heard screams, if there were any, and most important, he got away.

One thing is getting away with it for that day. Another thing is this being 4 months.

 

[Rocky1]

Not debating what it could be. It could even be a school bus! I think one thing that people on this site are failing to understand about my approach to all of this is that I'm just trying to ask which possibility is MOST LIKELY. None of us know for sure what happened. The best thing we can do here is for each little part we discuss, we can bring up as many different scenarios as possible. Then, based on probability, we can decide if one scenario is more likely than another.

That's all I'm trying to do. I'm not saying that no work vehicles are SUVs. I think you guys did a great job providing examples, and proving that case. So, it could have been a work vehicle, yes.
But, if the perp used a work vehicle, what is the relative liklihood that it would be an SUV? I'm only guessing here, but given your examples, of all contractor/worker company vehicles, what percentage might be SUVs? 10%? 25%? Even if 25%, which I think is a mighty fair HIGH CONSERVATIVE estimate, it still means that if a work vechicle was used, there would be a 75% chance it would not be an SUV, under this example. Therefore, I have some reason to believe this would not have been a work vehicle, as it's statistically unlikely.

We are discussing work vehicles because we want to know if the perp might not be fully associated with the vehicle, right? And so by work vehicle, what we mean is a vehicle that wouldn't normally be parked at the perps house, or that someone wouldn't necessarily immediately associate with the perp, right? Does this make sense?
If the "work" vehicle is the perps main vehicle and kept at his house, that diffuses the whole point of this angle. What we are really trying to look at here, is if the perp used a vechile DIFFERENT from one he is usually associated with, in order to cover his tracks.

Isn't that the idea?

If it is the idea, many of the SUVs fall out of the possibility. But even if we keep them all in consideration as a conservative hypothesis, they still are more unlikely than likely.

All good. Not sure if 1/4 of suvs being work vehicles makes it unlikely it wasn't an SUV.
My question is, what are the chances of someone having a torch in their vehicle, unless it is a work vehicle? 2 percent?

 

[searunner]

I disagree. I believe a sloppy , mid to lower IQ person with something this blatant would be solved by now.

To clarify since your post was obviously in response to mine - I said average to somewhat above avg intelligence is my guess. I agree that someone of "lower" (your word) avg intelligence would likely be id'd etc by now.

 

[ForensicMass]

All good. Not sure if 1/4 of suvs being work vehicles makes it unlikely it wasn't an SUV.
My question is, what are the chances of someone having a torch in their vehicle, unless it is a work vehicle? 2 percent?

Good question. Certainly chances of that would go up in a work vehicle. Prob 10x more likely item to be found in a work vehicle.

ALTHOUGH we aren't CERTAIN a torch was involved.

Can we think of any HOBBIES that would use a torch?

 

[Rocky1]

I think I have mentioned before and I could be wrong, but I believe it went off track for him when she fought more than expected, so then maybe things did turn out rushed or look sloppy. But, over all, I completely believe this is someone experienced who tried to cover up. I do not believe he was just spending time on the cart path torturing her with fire that would bring smoke to people's attention in mid afternoon. JMO , again.

I do think he put some thought into his plan no doubt, and he may very well be smart too, but no matter how smart he may be/not be, it was all luck that put her at that path at the same time no cars were coming.

 

[ForensicMass]

Has anyone been to the crime scene? Judging from old news clips of people wandering around in there I presume it is not secured.

Is it considered disrespectful?

I would like to see the burned trees for myself, if still remaining.

 

[Rocky1]

Even if he was lucky enough to get away, that day...if it was that sloppy, I believe police had some expert crime scene people (special unit ) on this and they would have found enough for more headway by now. IMO

Without a DNA match and nobody to compare evidence to, I do think they may have narrowed it down to how it happened, but still have nobody to point the finger too.

 

[Rocky1]

Totally. I mean, based on her location, it would only take one nosy princetonite to bring him down. And based on the police logs, there's plenty of those to go around. ! No offense meant of course . People there just like to make sure the places stays as it has for a hundred years.

I agree, and that is why I am having a hard time with the SUV parked along the road. It's the same reason I think the cops would have checked it out if they happened to drive by, It's not like it the cops there have so little time going from call to call. They look for anything . As I said before, they may not have stopped if the car was parked in front of a house, but it wasn't. They know there are no ponds or hiking trails there too.

 

[Emb72]

Good question. Certainly chances of that would go up in a work vehicle. Prob 10x more likely item to be found in a work vehicle.

ALTHOUGH we aren't CERTAIN a torch was involved.

Can we think of any HOBBIES that would use a torch?

Woodburning, cooking...or even just an outdoorsy person. Hand held blow torches are pretty small and convenient. Atleast the one we have for our woodstove..aka the Crack lighter..flame comes out the side instead of the top..and no, I don't do crack..and Forensicmass, I have been thoroughly enjoying your thoughts..

 

[Rocky1]

Has anyone been to the crime scene? Judging from old news clips of people wandering around in there I presume it is not secured.

Is it considered disrespectful?

I would like to see the burned trees for myself, if still remaining.

There is one poster here that has been to the crime scene.
I have been by it, but didn't stop. I know it's not posted with "no trespassing signs"
I wouldn't consider it disrespectful, myself, but then again, I have been to many high profile crime scenes, and can only speak for myself.

 

[Kickoff61]

Have her parents spoken out yet?

 

[Kickoff61]

Never mind , please disregard last comment, I found info.

 

[ForensicMass]

There is one poster here that has been to the crime scene.
I have been by it, but didn't stop. I know it's not posted with "no trespassing signs"
I wouldn't consider it disrespectful, myself, but then again, I have been to many high profile crime scenes, and can only speak for myself.

Does anyone have any particular questions I could address if I visited the area?

 

[DeDee]

http://vanessamarcotte.org/

 

[ForensicMass]

For all of those who have stated that they believe that law-enforcement has a perp in mind for this crime, does the press conference by the family today change your beliefs at all ?

 

[ForensicMass]

This cbs article goes so far as to say
" State police have received 1100 tips but nothing so far that points to her killer "

Probably a media stretch of the situation. But it doesn't sound great.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/12/21/vanessa-marcotte-princeton-murder-family-statement/

 

[Rocky1]

Does anyone have any particular questions I could address if I visited the area?

I think that the crime scene is going to look a lot different, due to no foliage,and a snow covered ground, but, if you get a chance, can you walk down into that gully to the right of the path,(looking at it from the road) behind the guard rail, and tell me how far you can see south? Then tell me if you think someone could have hid without being seen from a passing car? Then I'd like to know how easy you think from that position it would be to climb out of there and up on the path. Again, I am sure the weeds filled in the area under the guard rail that are no longer there, but just to get an idea.

 

[ForensicMass]

I took a screen shot of that request. I may be near there in a week or so. I will check on this and anything else you can think of. Just let me know.