MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #6

[ThinkHard]

Simple reason, I think - they want all potential witnesses to consider not just those people they know or suspect who OWN dark SUVs, but to expand their suspicions to include anyone who may have been able to borrow one. Meaning they just don't know if the perp was using his own car.

Thinking about this...when LE says dark SUV....why would they say that if they didn't think there was anything to it.

If they thought people were maybe having doubts and wanted to try to shake those doubts...why put out there something like that unless you KNOW it belongs.

Follow me for a second...if someone is even tietering on doubts and then they say that and the person knows this person that keeps nagging at them has acces to a dark SUV it's going to increase their doubts.

But if this person doesn't...it says to the person with doubts "see look at that, it can't be them"

So wouldn't it seem risky, even dangerous to release that info unless they knew it was a puzzle piece?

 

[Kickoff61]

I believe the market employees didn't recall her being there from the start, but LE took the camera footage to review. If they did not reveal what they found on it (which I do not believe they would) There is no reason for them to reveal what they have. There is no proof known that she was not there.

 

[Kickoff61]

If she only ran on BSR that day and got killed right away on the run. I don't see how the town could have 1,000 + tips from only that location. That is a lot of tips for a rural town as it is described, in general. IMO

 

[ThinkHard]

I believe the market employees didn't recall her being there from the start, but LE took the camera footage to review. If they did not reveal what they found on it (which I do not believe they would) There is no reason for them to reveal what they have. There is no proof known that she was not there.

I believe it's the leaning that none of the employees recall seeing her that day. That leaves doubt if she actually was.

Yes there is no proof ... but there is no proof of a bike or torch either and we still explore those ideas.

 

[ForensicMass]

Ty. So her mother or aunt would likely know this. It's an important point. Whose car, I wonder did she take ? Wonder if it was seen anywhere near the market ? Or anyplace else ? Wonder why LE hasn't asked the public if they saw this vehicle anyplace that day around [/B]noon ?

FM, having gone to Princeton, what is your take on this crime ? Do local people seem scared ? Did anyone give you the vibe that there was someone around Vanessa there who might have harmed her ? Or was the general consensus that they could not imagine anyone wishing to hurt her ? TIA

I only spoke with a few people while there, including LE. I said to LE "this place doesn't feel like it used to when I was last here, it honestly feels a little unnerving". He said "it doesn't feel the same to any of us". I don't want to read into it too much but to me that statement implies that they have maybe not ruled out the possibility of this being random. That there is a killer out there among them. It's very unsettled. I did see a few groups of younger girls, high school age, eating lunch at MSM, talking about normal stuff. I know that I personally thought about the crime the entire time I was there in town. I didn't feel relaxed about it. It's very bothersome to visit that area and especially the scene.

 

[ForensicMass]

I only spoke with a few people while there, including LE. I said to LE "this place doesn't feel like it used to when I was last here, it honestly feels a little unnerving". He said "it doesn't feel the same to any of us". I don't want to read into it too much but to me that statement implies that they have maybe not ruled out the possibility of this being random. That there is a killer out there among them. It's very unsettled. I did see a few groups of younger girls, high school age, eating lunch at MSM, talking about normal stuff. I know that I personally thought about the crime the entire time I was there in town. I didn't feel relaxed about it. It's very bothersome to visit that area and especially the scene.

Also, your thoughts about HER car are something I hadn't thought of and could be important. Great insight.

 

[ThinkHard]

If she only ran on BSR that day and got killed right away on the run. I don't see how the town could have 1,000 + tips from only that location. That is a lot of tips for a rural town as it is described, in general. IMO

Who is saying all the tips where from that location?

Obviously you don't have 1000 people all calling in with the exact same tip.

Who's to say they were all even sightings...or even sightings from that day...there are so many things people could call into a tip line.

 

[ForensicMass]

The school she went to wouldn't have had too many Leominster kids. More kids from the wachusett towns go there, which includes Princeton and there were definetly Princeton kids in school with her...two being Crawley (owner of wachusett Mnt) daughters.

I don't know how many people she would have actually know from Leominster, since she only went to preschool there, and we don't know her extra curriculars that might have been town focused. Bancroft is very expensive though, so statistically most of the kids that go there come from towns that match the price tag. Leominster from what I hear has nice areas but isn't very nice overall.

The point is it's a good bet she would have know a decent amount of people from Princeton.

Regarding running into someone...I agree it's weird, such a short trip so she does this happen...the only thing I can think of is the parking lot of the market...but I think she'd be on camera.

OK I can understand your analysis of the demographics. Perhaps she did know a fair number of people from Princeton. But with only 3400 total people living in Princeton that can't be a ton of kids going to Bancroft- just aren't that many kids to begin with.
And regarding the store parking lot if she madethat far why not go into the store? Parking spaces are no more than 50 feet from the door- perhaps this is what you meant when you said she would have been on camera. I don't see her going to the store parking lot encountering someone and not going inside. Her errands at the store would have only taken a couple of minutes.

 

[ThinkHard]

I only spoke with a few people while there, including LE. I said to LE "this place doesn't feel like it used to when I was last here, it honestly feels a little unnerving". He said "it doesn't feel the same to any of us". I don't want to read into it too much but to me that statement implies that they have maybe not ruled out the possibility of this being random. That there is a killer out there among them. It's very unsettled. I did see a few groups of younger girls, high school age, eating lunch at MSM, talking about normal stuff. I know that I personally thought about the crime the entire time I was there in town. I didn't feel relaxed about it. It's very bothersome to visit that area and especially the scene.

I can't speak for everyone clearly. But I am local. My address isn't Princeton but it is on the line and I did go to Wachusett HS and spend every Friday and Saturday night skiing at the Mnt in the winter throughout middle school and HS, and I do have family that lives in Princeton and best friends that grew up there....and from talking with a variety of people...all of which have various connections to LE and the DA and what not....and mostly our fear doesn't so much come from fear it's random...we are shaken because pretty much everyone knows it's one of us .... and that's what creeps us all out.

No matter who it is we know we will know them, they will be someone's friend, someone's brother, some uncle, somoneone we graduated with .... that's what scares us and shakes us.

At least that's what I've felt.

But not so much a leaning if it's random or they knew her...but if I had to say most people seem to feel like he had to know her somehow.

 

[ThinkHard]

OK I can understand your analysis of the demographics. Perhaps she did know a fair number of people from Princeton. But with only 3400 total people living in Princeton that can't be a ton of kids going to Bancroft- just aren't that many kids to begin with.
And regarding the store parking lot if she madethat far why not go into the store? Parking spaces are no more than 50 feet from the door- perhaps this is what you meant when you said she would have been on camera. I don't see her going to the store parking lot encountering someone and not going inside. Her errands at the store would have only taken a couple of minutes.

Princeton is part of wachusett area, its five towns that share a paper and a high school. There is a lot of interaction btw the towns and in many ways it's like one big town...if you add up all the towns it's more like 40k.

Holden being the largest followed Rutland, then Sterling, Paxton and Princeton being the smallest.

The only reason I point this out is "local" could realistically mean anyone in the wachusett area. If she went to Bancroft she would have known kids in all likelyhood from all five towns and by extension would have known many of the local HS kids as well.

Just trying to give you perspective on the area. For an example I had a good friend at Bancroft...sometimes she would
Hang out with us and the public school kids, sometimes we would hang out with her Bancroft friends...by extension she knew most of the kids in our grade at public school and vise versa. I'd imagine it was similar for VM.

 

[Kickoff61]

Who is saying all the tips where from that location?

Obviously you don't have 1000 people all calling in with the exact same tip.

Who's to say they were all even sightings...or even sightings from that day...there are so many things people could call into a tip line.

<modsnip>. No-one. I was making a simple point how many tips can be from other areas in town.

 

[ForensicMass]

Princeton is part of wachusett area, its five towns that share a paper and a high school. There is a lot of interaction btw the towns and in many ways it's like one big town...if you add up all the towns it's more like 40k.

Holden being the largest followed Rutland, then Sterling, Paxton and Princeton being the smallest.

The only reason I point this out is "local" could realistically mean anyone in the wachusett area. If she went to Bancroft she would have known kids in all likelyhood from all five towns and by extension would have known many of the local HS kids as well.

Just trying to give you perspective on the area. For an example I had a good friend at Bancroft...sometimes she would
Hang out with us and the public school kids, sometimes we would hang out with her Bancroft friends...by extension she knew most of the kids in our grade at public school and vise versa. I'd imagine it was similar for VM.

Ok I follow that, but to the original point, what would someone from Holden (which makes up nearly half the 40k 5-town population) be doing on BSR or near the store. Would seem like an unlikely coincidence to be there or cross VMs 1.6-mile, 3-minute path. I'm not by any means implying that the killer isn't a locAl, just specifically addressing the idea that she "randomly crossed paths with someone she knew". Seems like it would really have to be someone ultra local to make this even remotely probable. I understand she prob knew people from Holden ET al, but what are the chances of them crossing paths in that tiny window, when both would be ina vehicle ? The likely convergence point would have been the store lot, but again, if she was there, why didn't she go inside?

 

[Gussified]

The reason I think VM knew her killer... ( from the national institute of health)

In contrast to men, the killing of a woman by a stranger was rare (RR = 0.18).

...and lean toward a secret relationship...

More than twice as many women were shot and killed by their husband or intimate acquaintance than were murdered by strangers using guns, knives, or any other means.

ETA: oops, here's the link
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1635092

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[ThinkHard]

OK I can understand your analysis of the demographics. Perhaps she did know a fair number of people from Princeton. But with only 3400 total people living in Princeton that can't be a ton of kids going to Bancroft- just aren't that many kids to begin with.
And regarding the store parking lot if she madethat far why not go into the store? Parking spaces are no more than 50 feet from the door- perhaps this is what you meant when you said she would have been on camera. I don't see her going to the store parking lot encountering someone and not going inside. Her errands at the store would have only taken a couple of minutes.

But more importantly about the store.

Yes it doesn't make sense to me either...I'm not saying it is or isn't anything...just kind of throwing stuff out there in order to talk it through.

It's weird that if she was intending to go to the store that she would be intercepted before arriving in the parking lot. Which is why the parking lot is the only thing that makes sense if she was in fact intending to go to the store.

But I would assume one of those 4 cameras must be directed on the parking lot.

I guess you could kind of hide yourself from cameras if you went back as far as you could...but wouldn't they still see her car pulling in and out?

Do you recall if they had a camera pointed outside?

They only sliver that could make sense is that IF she ran into this guy who lied to her (theory) in the parking lot and somehow avoided camera and its rattled her but she agreed to meet him somewhere to talk. Perhaps she even suggested the location...if she ran that road often she would be aware they could speak out of sight there.

The only way I see her not going into the store at that point is if the encounter rattled her and she felt emotional and didn't want to be seen in public. Maybe she was even able to pull herself together before getting back to her house.

Otherwise if she said she was going to the store...and it turns out was never there...then the only thing that makes sense is that the store was a cover for something else.

other thought could the store been a cover for the talk...the talk upset him....he felt like he wasn't finished and he happen to pass her an hour later running and decide to finish the talk?

 

[ForensicMass]

The reason I think VM knew her killer... ( from the national institute of health)


...and lean toward a secret relationship...



ETA: oops, here's the link
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1635092

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

those statistics do not surprise me at all however the unusual case does occur and this case rings to me to be different from a domestic issue gone bad. this case is not typical. In Fact if you broke those statistics down, i'm sure you would find that most women are killed by men they know extremely well and men they are very close to. I think we have already accepted that this is not the case here. maybe we should also except that this case differs from the norm in other ways as well.

I do think there is a decent chance the killer knew of VM before this crime however I am not certain of it. I'm more inclined to believe that scenario than to believe it was someone that Vanessa herself knew or knew well. Again, this of course could certainly be the case. But I think if there is a connection here between killer and victim it is a weak connection not a significant one

 

[ThinkHard]

Ok I follow that, but to the original point, what would someone from Holden (which makes up nearly half the 40k 5-town population) be doing on BSR or near the store. Would seem like an unlikely coincidence to be there or cross VMs 1.6-mile, 3-minute path. I'm not by any means implying that the killer isn't a locAl, just specifically addressing the idea that she "randomly crossed paths with someone she knew". Seems like it would really have to be someone ultra local to make this even remotely probable. I understand she prob knew people from Holden ET al, but what are the chances of them crossing paths in that tiny window, when both would be ina vehicle ? The likely convergence point would have been the store lot, but again, if she was there, why didn't she go inside?

Not when you consider that a lot of people who grow up here end up settling back down here but not always in the same town they grew up in.

You could have someone who live in Holden but grew up in Princeton and still
Has family there....you could have someone who lives near the town line in Rutland or Jefferson. You could have someone who grew up in Holden or Sterling who know lives in Princeton.

As I said these towns are like one big town...I'm in multiple places in any of these towns on any given day, and I only live in one of them. Why wouldn't someone from Holden be on that road. They could just as easily be as familiar with that area as someone from Princeton themselves.

When I think of the friends from HS I still see some are from the town I lived in but it's a big mix from Sterling and Princeton etc as well...meaning people from Holden as an example are just as likely to have very close friends in one of the other 4 towns as they are their own.

For what it's worth a typical summer Sunday is a drive up 31 and a breakfast sandwich at the market, and a trip to by plants in Paxton...a route that happens to take you down BSR. So just running around doing Sunday errands could take you through town if you are local...and that increases if you have friends or family there.

 

[ForensicMass]

But more importantly about the store.

Yes it doesn't make sense to me either...I'm not saying it is or isn't anything...just kind of throwing stuff out there in order to talk it through.

It's weird that if she was intending to go to the store that she would be intercepted before arriving in the parking lot. Which is why the parking lot is the only thing that makes sense if she was in fact intending to go to the store.

But I would assume one of those 4 cameras must be directed on the parking lot.

I guess you could kind of hide yourself from cameras if you went back as far as you could...but wouldn't they still see her car pulling in and out?

Do you recall if they had a camera pointed outside?

They only sliver that could make sense is that IF she ran into this guy who lied to her (theory) in the parking lot and somehow avoided camera and its rattled her but she agreed to meet him somewhere to talk. Perhaps she even suggested the location...if she ran that road often she would be aware they could speak out of sight there.

The only way I see her not going into the store at that point is if the encounter rattled her and she felt emotional and didn't want to be seen in public. Maybe she was even able to pull herself together before getting back to her house.

Otherwise if she said she was going to the store...and it turns out was never there...then the only thing that makes sense is that the store was a cover for something else.

other thought could the store been a cover for the talk...the talk upset him....he felt like he wasn't finished and he happen to pass her an hour later running and decide to finish the talk?

One camera is facing the door of the store which could probably see a portion of the entrance to the parking lot but I can't be certain of it the angle may not allow it. The rattled scenario is interesting but there are too many Hypotheticals built into that one scenario for my personal liking. I think the general thought that the "trip to the store" was misinterpreted or misleading,though, is certainly possible. Did she decide to go to a different store than usual for some reason ? Did she want to mislead her parents and really intended to do something else? still can't see the planned meet up for a talk, only because millennials are glued to their electronic devices like their eyes are glued into their sockets. If there was a plan to meet someone no one would expect that this level of digging would occur and no one would go to such incredible lengths to cover up such a meeting. VM would not need a burner phone to have a secret relationship because she could use her phone and know that no one was going to thoroughly investigate her call or message history. and to me the idea of a payphone is something out of an 80s movie. If I was running for my life looking for a payphone I don't think I could find one. In Princeton I don't see where she would have had access to a payphone. Again moreover I just do not see why she would go to those kinds of lengths when she could just use her own phone or messaging applications or Facebook or some other means to contact this person that she felt was secure enough that no one would know about it. People use their phone as a tool for everything these days. I have a fairly sturdy understanding of how millennials use technology. I know several people who are not faithful in their relationships and none of them use burner phones. so the meet up scenario hits a roadblock for me right there.

 

[Gussified]

those statistics do not surprise me at all however the unusual case does occur and this case rings to me to be different from a domestic issue gone bad. this case is not typical. In Fact if you broke those statistics down, i'm sure you would find that most women are killed by men they know extremely well and men they are very close to. I think we have already accepted that this is not the case here. maybe we should also except that this case differs from the norm in other ways as well.

I do think there is a decent chance the killer knew of VM before this crime however I am not certain of it. I'm more inclined to believe that scenario than to believe it was someone that Vanessa herself knew or knew well. Again, this of course could certainly be the case. But I think if there is a connection here between killer and victim it is a weak connection not a significant one

Yes, I think it is more likely that she knew him, less likely in a relationship, but far less likely a random stranger. jmo. I haven't dog further into the stats, but would guess most random stranger killings were during the commission of another crime, such as robbery. Rape is a possibility, of course, but I think many, if not most, rapes are committed by someone known to the victim in some way. Again jmo.

Always brings to mind a children's video done by John Walsh, on stranger danger; he made a distinction of people you 'kind of know'.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[ThinkHard]

One camera is facing the door of the store which could probably see a portion of the entrance to the parking lot but I can't be certain of it the angle may not allow it. The rattled scenario is interesting but there are too many Hypotheticals built into that one scenario for my personal liking. I think the general thought that the "trip to the store" was misinterpreted or misleading,though, is certainly possible. Did she decide to go to a different store than usual for some reason ? Did she want to mislead her parents and really intended to do something else? still can't see the planned meet up for a talk, only because millennials are glued to their electronic devices like their eyes are glued into their sockets. If there was a plan to meet someone no one would expect that this level of digging would occur and no one would go to such incredible lengths to cover up such a meeting. VM would not need a burner phone to have a secret relationship because she could use her phone and know that no one was going to thoroughly investigate her call or message history. and to me the idea of a payphone is something out of an 80s movie. If I was running for my life looking for a payphone I don't think I could find one. In Princeton I don't see where she would have had access to a payphone. Again moreover I just do not see why she would go to those kinds of lengths when she could just use her own phone or messaging applications or Facebook or some other means to contact this person that she felt was secure enough that no one would know about it. People use their phone as a tool for everything these days. I have a fairly sturdy understanding of how millennials use technology. I know several people who are not faithful in their relationships and none of them use burner phones. so the meet up scenario hits a roadblock for me right there.

If anything happened btw her and her killer I don't think it was the type of thing where they were in communication or super close.

I only suggested that perhaps she had alternate plans other then the store ...regardless of what these ulternative plans were...it seems more likely she had alternative plans then ran into someone on her way there.

But it seems there would be some indication somewhere of what these other plans where or her phone would at least have told LE at this point where she was when she was at "the store".

If she makes it to the parking lot but doesnt go in...then the only thing I see is she got rattled.

I'm not sure of it would be more likely to have been intercepted or have been misleading about plans.

One last thought, IF it was a married man...he might not be a millennial and HIS digital footprint might be significantly less over all period. But again I doubt even if there was something they were communicating with each other. I see it as more of a one off event, not an ongoing thing.

 

[ForensicMass]

Yes, I think it is more likely that she knew him, less likely in a relationship, but far less likely a random stranger. jmo. I haven't dog further into the stats, but would guess most random stranger killings were during the commission of another crime, such as robbery. Rape is a possibility, of course, but I think many, if not most, rapes are committed by someone known to the victim in some way. Again jmo.

Always brings to mind a children's video done by John Walsh, on stranger danger; he made a distinction of people you 'kind of know'.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Love John walsh. I think VM was "kind of known" to him. And possibly vice-versa. But I believe she was caught right after she left the driveway, within minutes. To me that points toward someone with recent immediate knowledge of her plans that day.

I understand there are questions about the accuracy of the phone "ping", especially when shut off. I do know that typically the find my iPhone is very accurate, to within tens of feet. When off this may extend to a couple hundred feet or so. BUT

Just for the sake of examination, can we suppose the killer fled the scene with her phone in his vehicle, and realized he had it or had to address it when his racing mind was tying up loose ends, as he drove past the mountain barn. When he immediately shut the phone off. In this scenario- what does his direction of exit tell us?

Looking at the map, the perp would then have been traveling south on 31, toward Holden ( The most populous of the five towns surrounding the area and therefore statistically the most likely area where a "local "killer might live. It is away from the towns of Sterling, hubbardston, Princeton and Leominster. It is also in the direction of the much larger city of Worcester, but the main way to Worcester would have been to head east on route 62. In fact. IF WE ARE ASSUMING A LOCAL, FAMILIAR WITH THE ROADS AND ROUTES, an exit past the mountain barn is MOST DIRECTLY TO HOLDEN. Each of the other towns are more easily accessed via alternative routes which would have taken the killer in directions away from Mountain Barn. Also, the escape to Worcester would have been faster and more direct via rt 62/140/190. Something that a local would very likely know.

So, are we looking for someone in Holden? They could have been in the safety of their own home in 10-15 minutes.