GUILTY MI - Chelsea Bruck, 22, Frenchtown Twp, 26 Oct 2014 #2

[rosesfromangels]

Team Chelsea,

Here's what I want to know so we can do a little predictive modeling. I'm sure LE has done this already? If not, they should.
There are 9,308 registered fans/"likes" on "Pick Axe Preachers" Facebook page. Of those 9,308 likes, how many of these fans:
-Fall within a 2 hour driving radius? (I estimate 80% or 7,446)
-Of that subset, how many are male? (I estimate 70% or 5,212)
-Of that subset, how many could potentially fit the description of the Perp? (I'll use 35%, or 1,824)
-We know approx. 600 people attended the Halloween concert at "Big Mike's" house.
-If we use my guesstimate that approx. 70% of the fans are male, then that reduces the pool to 420 suspects
-If we use my guesstimate that approx. 35% could potentially resemble the Perp since it's a popular look, then that narrows the pool to 147 suspects
-If we use the notion that people attended the party in groups of 5, then we need to talk to 30 attendees who did not attend the party with any of the other 29 people we talk to, and someone will know this Perp.

There are 1000 flaws to be found in this logic, but at least it is my offering to triage through the attendees and find the Perp.
Everyone else should feel free to please offer up other ideas.
One thing that is very very clear to me, is that this Perp is a KNOWN
You don't come across a fringe band like this by accident.
I would bet money the Perp is on their FB page or mailing list (or was).
LE should carefully check who was added or deleted right after Chelsea's disappearance.

This Perp *will* be found. Guaranteed.

And, a little additional commentary about this Band after spending some time on their FB page.
It's just no surprise that a tragedy like this takes place when you promote this type of evil and hatred, even if it's a farse to make a buck. These guys look a little too paunchy and old to be trying to pull off the metal scene. JMO, of course.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I was interested in the band's performance schedule and spent some time researching the venues where they perform. Besides the two big outdoor events, I wonder how many of their smaller, indoor performances Chelsea attended? These are much smaller venues where there couldn't be anywhere near 600 people attending. If the POI is a regular attendee, someone who's seen him in smaller arenas should be able to identify him. :moo:

 

[rosesfromangels]

Yes, agree BDE. I think Chelsea had seen this guy around before, and that he probably seemed like a familiar member of the band followers. She does not seem like the type who would accept a ride from a complete stranger. He is a known.

 

[dmc43613]

I was interested in the band's performance schedule and spent some time researching the venues where they perform. Besides the two big outdoor events that Chelsea attended, I wonder how many of their smaller, indoor performances she attended? These are much smaller venues where there couldn't be anywhere near 600 people attending. If the POI is a regular attendee, someone who's seen him in smaller arenas should be able to identify him! :moo:

Something else we must keep in mind IMO

There were several "other" bands from out of town that most likely have followings, I hope THEIR fan base(s) were also scrutinized. This (POI) very well could be a fan of one of the other bands that played that day.

 

[dmc43613]

Team Chelsea,

Here's what I want to know so we can do a little predictive modeling. I'm sure LE has done this already? If not, they should.
There are 9,308 registered fans/"likes" on "Pick Axe Preachers" Facebook page. Of those 9,308 likes, how many of these fans:
-Fall within a 2 hour driving radius? (I estimate 80% or 7,446)
-Of that subset, how many are male? (I estimate 70% or 5,212)
-Of that subset, how many could potentially fit the description of the Perp? (I'll use 35%, or 1,824)
-We know approx. 600 people attended the Halloween concert at "Big Mike's" house.
-If we use my guesstimate that approx. 70% of the fans are male, then that reduces the pool to 420 suspects
-If we use my guesstimate that approx. 35% could potentially resemble the Perp since it's a popular look, then that narrows the pool to 147 suspects
-If we use the notion that people attended the party in groups of 5, then we need to talk to 30 attendees who did not attend the party with any of the other 29 people we talk to, and someone will know this Perp.

There are 1000 flaws to be found in this logic, but at least it is my offering to triage through the attendees and find the Perp.
Everyone else should feel free to please offer up other ideas.
One thing that is very very clear to me, is that this Perp is a KNOWN
You don't come across a fringe band like this by accident.
I would bet money the Perp is on their FB page or mailing list (or was).
LE should carefully check who was added or deleted right after Chelsea's disappearance.

This Perp *will* be found. Guaranteed.

And, a little additional commentary about this Band after spending some time on their FB page.
It's just no surprise that a tragedy like this takes place when you promote this type of evil and hatred, even if it's a farse to make a buck. These guys look a little too paunchy and old to be trying to pull off the metal scene. JMO, of course.

If I am not mistaken there was a group early on that went through all persons on the FB EVENT that were "invited" starting with the "are going", "maybe", etc. I cannot speak for all of the PAxP fan base though.

 

[dmc43613]

Something else we must keep in mind IMO

There were several "other" bands from out of town that most likely have followings, I hope THEIR fan base(s) were also scrutinized. This (POI) very well could be a fan of one of the other bands that played that day.

I wonder if there is another band that played at both the June and Oct show? I couldn't find an "event" for the June show...or maybe I am just missing it.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Something else we must keep in mind IMO

There were several "other" bands from out of town that most likely have followings, I hope THEIR fan base(s) were also scrutinized. This (POI) very well could be a fan of one of the other bands that played that day.

And a similar exercise should be conducted with their fan base as well.
As I have stated upthread, I truly think LE knows who this POI is. I think they are collecting enough evidence for an arrest with a high probability of conviction, or are hoping he will lead them to Chelsea. Let's hope that comes soon. And despite my obvious distaste for the prime band in question, perhaps they have been working behind the scenes with LE. I certainly hope so. There is just a lot we don't know, primarily the key question: Where is Chelsea?

 

[dmc43613]

Trust me Roses, I am not sticking up for PAxP in the least, but felt we may overlook something if we just focus on them.

I couldn't agree more about going through the other bands SM sites.

I think there were bands from Detroit, Chicago and maybe Wisconsin and the Event stated there was spaces for "campers/tents" I think. This has been a concern for me too, worrying that a camper or tent could provide the perfect cover of an assault or something.

I hope you are right about LE and them having an idea and just keeping things quiet. I would love nothing more than this family getting her back.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

RE: smaller venues where Pick Axe Preacher performs. Just want to add that there are usually multiple bands at the venues where PAP performs. Most of the venues are dive bars that open early evening and close at 2:00AM. Various bands perform sets throughout the night. Some of the venues have a cover charge.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I wonder if there is another band that played at both the June and Oct show? I couldn't find an "event" for the June show...or maybe I am just missing it.

Wulfhook. There might be others, as well.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

...And, a little additional commentary about this Band after spending some time on their FB page.
It's just no surprise that a tragedy like this takes place when you promote this type of evil and hatred, even if it's a farse to make a buck. These guys look a little too paunchy and old to be trying to pull off the metal scene. JMO, of course.

<respectfully snipped>

While reading consumer reviews (yelp, urbanspoon, etc.) for some of the venues where PAP performs, the dive bar demographic is described as "aging hipsters". Based on the many photos/video from the Halloween bash, I thought the band's fan base was much younger than "baby boomers". Maybe the indoor venues draw a different crowd. I can't imagine folks my age liking this type of "music". Makes my head hurt

 

[rosesfromangels]

<respectfully snipped>

While reading consumer reviews (yelp, urbanspoon, etc.) for some of the venues where PAP performs, the dive bar demographic is described as "aging hipsters". Based on the many photos/video from the Halloween bash, I thought the band's fan base was much younger than "baby boomers". Maybe the indoor venues draw a different crowd. I can't imagine folks my age liking this type of "music". Makes my head hurt

Sorry, but wearing tights like a ten year old girl scout does not qualify you as a "hipster" (aging or otherwise) in my book. However, if they are working with, and cooperating with LE that's all that really matters.

And that said, I just went on "Big Mike's" Pick Axe Preacher Band page on FB, and note that whatever posts there were between October 1 - November 8 have been removed.
The people who indicated they were attending that Halloween event are no longer visible.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Listen to heavy metal? You may have low self-esteem: Psychologist reveals personality traits of Slipknot and Metallica fans

*Study found that most metal fans have a strong need to be individual
*The lower self-esteem was linked to negative attitudes towards authority
*Earlier research found that metal fans have many personality traits in common with those who enjoy classical music

By Ellie Zolfagharifard

Published: 10:24 EST, 11 November 2013 | Updated: 10:25 EST, 11 November 2013

Heavy metal music fans are often labelled as angry and unruly - but how close is this to the truth?

A study by Westminster University has attempted to find out by digging deep into what makes metal aficionados tick.

Psychologist Viren Swami asked 219 women and 195 men living in the UK to fill out surveys about their personality after listening to and rating 10 heavy metal tracks...

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ts-Slipknot-Metallica-fans.html#ixzz3NmeUt4Ot

 

[Klynn3]

The lack of interest or public support shown by the band has always bothered me. Newport is a very small community. It truly is a community where everybody seems to know everyone (either personally or by some sort of connection/association). As a member of this community, I am very disappointed and concerned with the bands actions thus far. I feel from the start...they could and should have been more involved w/ their outreach efforts regarding Chelsea, specifically, outreach targeted to their fan base (fellow party attendants). Additionally, the lack of emotion or empathy that they have displayed really bothers me. I don't expect the band members to change their daily routine or sacrifice their music/lifestyle in any way. However, I believe that finding Chelsea and showing her family support should be at the forefront of everything they do (missing Poster on FaceBook, engaging their fan base before/during concerts, volunteering w/ the search efforts or any other outreach tools that may be effective). At the end of the day, Chelsea was attending a party hosted by the band. I am assuming, she was not only present that night because it was a large party, but as a way to show the band (her friends) support, as she obviously connected and enjoyed their music. I live less then 2 miles away from Post/Williams rd and under a half mile from the Bruck control center on Swan Creek Rd. I pass one or both locations multiple times a day. Honestly,I am not sure who could drive by either location and not feel motivated to assist and pray for the Bruck family. We spent most of the New Year's Day, walking/searching the shores of Lake Erie. My husband and I have spent most of our lives in the area...there are several, desolate areas that the locals only really know about.These areas (extremely remote and off the beaten path) are most popular w/ high school & college students. It provides them a place to party, w/out worrying about the police. I have a 20 yr old brother who has brought me up-to-speed, w/ several of these locations (as it is different from when I was that age). In my opinion, the community is still very much interested in helping the Brucks and bringing Chelsea home. However, I feel the longer it goes with out LE engaging or presenting new information on Chelsea's case, it will become less of an interest (old news) and may discourage the public from getting involved. I really hope there is a break in the case soon.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Ok then, let's give Big Mike a chance to help. Since you are local, can you approach him and ask him to work with a local venue for a fundraiser for Chelsea? Heavily promoted; requesting all associated bands contribute too. This is his chance to help in a big way. All proceeds go to the search and reward fund.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Seems like PAP is pleased with their accomplishments during 2014. No mention of Chelsea in this January 1 entry.

Pick Axe Preacher

January 1 at 5:54am

Happy New Year! PXP accomplished so much this year, and we are vary proud of that. An EP, 2 music videos, a **** ton of shows, parties, and pits, we got signed to Hell City Records, and a **** ton of stickers and promotion! 2014 couldn't of gone better! We cant wait to show our fans what we have for them in 2015! \m/ :x \m/ Cheers y'all!

https://www.facebook.com/pickaxepreacher

 

[rosesfromangels]

Seems like PAP is pleased with their accomplishments during 2014. No mention of Chelsea in this January 1 entry.

Pick Axe Preacher

January 1 at 5:54am

Happy New Year! PXP accomplished so much this year, and we are vary proud of that. An EP, 2 music videos, a **** ton of shows, parties, and pits, we got signed to Hell City Records, and a **** ton of stickers and promotion! 2014 couldn't of gone better! We cant wait to show our fans what we have for them in 2015! \m/ :x \m/ Cheers y'all!

https://www.facebook.com/pickaxepreacher

Ah yes, the oversight of a missing fan.
Well, per my previous post, let's give Big Mike a chance to prove he isn't a complete azzhat by letting him hold a fundraiser for Chelsea. I'm sure he will jump at the chance to help in such a significant manner.

 

[dmc43613]

Seems like PAP is pleased with their accomplishments during 2014. No mention of Chelsea in this January 1 entry.

Pick Axe Preacher

January 1 at 5:54am

Happy New Year! PXP accomplished so much this year, and we are vary proud of that. An EP, 2 music videos, a **** ton of shows, parties, and pits, we got signed to Hell City Records, and a **** ton of stickers and promotion! 2014 couldn't of gone better! We cant wait to show our fans what we have for them in 2015! \m/ :x \m/ Cheers y'all!

https://www.facebook.com/pickaxepreacher

This kind of angers me, how hard would it have been to add a few lines about one of their fans still missing from the Oct. Show, or how sad/hurt/worried the band is for safety, disappearance etc.

I just find their lack of empathy and self promotion completely unnerving.

 

[rosesfromangels]

This kind of angers me, how hard would it have been to add a few lines about one of their fans still missing from the Oct. Show, or how sad/hurt/worried the band is for safety, disappearance etc.

I just find their lack of empathy and self promotion completely unnerving.

Yes, it certainly seems uncaring...at best.
That said, I'm in support of him holding a fundraiser for Chelsea. If he starts working on this immediately, he could pull this off by mid month. I'm sure a local venue would help.

 

[Klynn3]

Seems like PAP is pleased with their accomplishments during 2014. No mention of Chelsea in this January 1 entry.

Pick Axe Preacher

January 1 at 5:54am

Happy New Year! PXP accomplished so much this year, and we are vary proud of that. An EP, 2 music videos, a **** ton of shows, parties, and pits, we got signed to Hell City Records, and a **** ton of stickers and promotion! 2014 couldn't of gone better! We cant wait to show our fans what we have for them in 2015! \m/ :x \m/ Cheers y'all!

https://www.facebook.com/pickaxepreacher

Chelsea has been missing for approx. 70 days. It was the top story reported in the Monroe Evening News for 2014...and yet no mention of Chelsea/Bruck Family by PXP in this post. It almost like their living in a fantasy world...pretending this event/tragedy never occurred. Almost, like if they don't post or make any reference of it...then it isn't really reality. I don't know...people deal
w/ sadness/emotion in different ways. However, after 70 days...(for what ever reason)I don't think PXP is going to change their behavior and/or deal w/ this situation any differently. This is my personal opinion, I may be wrong!