I agree on the lead statement. But.... we have very different views regarding the rest of your post.
The FACE Act clearly states that it is illegal intimidate people at a place of worship from practicing first amendment rights- period.
Neither the ACLU nor the SPLC, nor any other established civil liberties group has questioned the applicability of the charges to the protesters. That is pretty telling and could well indicate that they are in big trouble.
Then factor in the idea that people have protest rights, but need to stay out of churches, mosques, synagogues and temples might resonate pretty deep with a certain number of jurors.
In regards to the charges against Lemon, I think he is going to get squeezed, but I my confidence is lower. Two judges refused to issue warrants. Yet, neither judge rejected the applicability of the charges out right.
In the end, the fact that the protest and target were plastered all over Minneapolis, but none of the big boy networks decided to respond to: "Hey CNN, FOX and CBS wanna get the inside scoop on our protest at the Church? We are rolling out soon!!" could be telling. Little voices might have told them it was legally a bad idea.
As to the loyalty of the protesters to their cause and to each other. Humans and humans and groups of humans usually fragment. Not all of them might have signed up for the risk of criminal charges.