Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Napoli]

The problem with criminal profiling is that it rests on the premise that similar crimes are committed by similar criminal personalities or people with similar backgrounds. IMHO this has been proven to be false.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0004865814530732

I actually agree. It's a step away from junk science. So, "my profiling" is based only on whatever we know or think we know about this case.

 

[BigCityAccountant]

While its a little quiet in here, for those who are adamant the one/s who wrote the ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy, what is your reasoning?

And for those who believe the ransom note writer/s are not the same as those responsible for what happened to Nancy, what are your reasons for thinking this?

And for those who are on the fence, what are your reasons, what is it that is making it difficult to lean one way or the other?

(we don't have all the evidence and information from the investigation, so noone can really know right now what LE know, but just thought it would be interesting to review where we are all at and why)

For me personally, I believe ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy. My belief is this is a personal vendetta with SG for whatever reason.

However, the shift back to the family makes me believe something was responsible for that shift. Something caused them to go back to AG's house, something caused them to go back to NG's house. Are they at a loss, that they started from square one? Has this perp outsmarted LE? IDK, I just can't see that.

So, I guess you can put me on the fence.

 

[shadowsc]

I just don't think it's the sister's husband. Your sister-in-law is a major public news journalist and you're going to orchestrate a kidnapping, or a coverup to look like a kidnapping, and you are truly going to send, or have other people send, ransom notes to TMZ while the FBI is literally surveilling you? Most kidnappings for ransom are kept quiet, out of the media, try to steer away from authorities being called, and the culprits just want their money. This way would be awfully bold and risky and reckless.

But, we could go in circles. Nothing would really surprise me anymore in this case.

 

[Cassie P]

, but something with in between receiving the call and showing up at Nancy's might not be adding up, so they removed the call from the public timeline while they try to sort it out by investigating. JMO.

In the SIL theory, with a death and cover up, the phone call from the church friend threw a monkey wrench into the cover up plans. He thought he had more time to stage the crime scene and put other pieces into place? So he had to think about how to handle that call, now he was under a time pressure. He had to go to NG's house, pretend to look around and call 911. The police got involved much sooner than planned.

 

[CrimeDawg123]

Wait, NG had POA for their new house? Or what did she have control over that involve SIL?

Not known what their arrangements might be.

 

[tkcrockett]

Ive listened to a few CSI people talk about that blood, they all-seem to think that there is no directionality to the drops, like as if the person was stopped there for a period of time and the drops just went straight down.
Ed Wallace ( from the duty ron channel) a former csi and Also trains CSI’s all over the world spoke on the spot that looks like aspirated blood, He said to test if it was aspirated , it would have amylase in it. Swab it and test for amylase.I dont know if they did that tho.
AI definition:
expirated blood (blood forced from the nose, mouth, or lungs) commonly contains salivary amylase. This is because the blood mixes with saliva while being coughed, sneezed, or forced out of the mouth.

Long post, sorry, but I had to get my theory out.

I have suspected all along there were at least two suspects involved - one to restrain NG and the other one to grab the vehicle. The blood splatter IMO suggests NG stood on the porch for a minute before being loaded into a vehicle, and certainly an abductor wouldn’t leave her there alone for that time while they retrieved their car. One suspect stands there with NG, restraining her, while the other drives there to pick them up.

Now here’s where my theory gets wild but hear me out. If we are to assume the SIL is one of these individuals, he cannot be sending the ransom notes since the FBI is literally breathing down his neck. However, the way things are panning out (evidence collection at his home, towed vehicle) it seems he has some part to play. At the same time, the ransom notes seem to provide proof that whoever is sending them also had a part in the crime.

What if the SIL planned this all with someone else? The goal was to collect as much money as possible from the Guthrie family, more than what just inheritance would’ve provided. SIL drove NG home and then returned back to his home. The second suspect went to NG’s property and carried out the abduction. SIL came and picked suspect # 2 and NG up (so no SIL DNA at the scene). They returned to SIL’s house where they harmed NG (so blood evidence at SIL house). Then, when the news all broke, the plan was for the second guy to send the notes with information about the crime scene and extort SG for money (providing a further alibi for SIL because there’s no way he could’ve sent them, and whoever sent them obviously did it). Then, SIL makes off with part of the inheritance and his cut of the eventual ransom and
he’s provided the perfect defense of “look this kidnapper did it for ransom!”

This is all JMO, please don’t come for me.

In your theory where is the remainder of the blood trail? She’s standing there bleeding and apparently at least one cough/sneeze/spit. Then what? No more blood. Are you thinking the car drove up the steps and she was placed inside?

 

[Cassie P]

I just don't think it's the sister's husband. Your sister-in-law is a major public news journalist and you're going to orchestrate a kidnapping, or a coverup to look like a kidnapping, and you are truly going to send, or have other people send, ransom notes to TMZ while the FBI is literally surveilling you? Most kidnappings for ransom are kept quiet, out of the media, try to steer away from authorities being called, and the culprits just want their money. This way would be awfully bold and risky and reckless.

But, we could go in circles. Nothing would really surprise me anymore in this case.

We see criminals do bold, risky, reckless things all the time. That's why they end up in prison.

 

[Tortoise]

While its a little quiet in here, for those who are adamant the one/s who wrote the ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy, what is your reasoning?

And for those who believe the ransom note writer/s are not the same as those responsible for what happened to Nancy, what are your reasons for thinking this?

And for those who are on the fence, what are your reasons, what is it that is making it difficult to lean one way or the other?

(we don't have all the evidence and information from the investigation, so noone can really know right now what LE know, but just thought it would be interesting to review where we are all at and why)

I'm not adamant about one theory, but I do think it's possible that whoever harmed Nancy tried to make it look as if she had not necessarily been kidnapped, but either her body had to be hidden to remove say DNA that could be in a database (to make it look like it was a known criminal), or to make it look as if Nancy had fallen and wandered off in a concussed state. Then it could be possible that after hearing different theories during the next 24 hours or so, as to a kidnapping, and whatever evidence the family might want to prove it was the person who was at the house, they followed through with the belated ransom demand. Maybe they don't really expect to collect the money, so gave a figure they thought the family would not be able to pay.

It's my theory that whenever crimes look disorganised it's as a result of a spanner in the works and something changing in an original plan.

JMO

 

[Cassie P]

Maybe its not so much the church caller, but the amount of time it took for AG and TC to get over to Nancy's from wherever they were that morning, or what they were doing in the morning doesn't quite line up in the timeline that's causing issues. So the call itself is fine, the amount of time AG and TC were at Nancy's house before they called 911 is fine, but what happened between the church call and getting to Nancy's house still needs some smoothing out.

As I stated in another comment, in the SIL theory, this church phone call was a major problem in the cover up. They had to respond and get the police involved much sooner than they had hoped. So they had to scramble and re think the plan.

 

[pinkinablueworld]

Wait, NG had POA for their new house? Or what did she have control over that involve SIL?

Do you have a source? Honestly NG having POA over SIL property does not make
sense.

 

[Strangeworld]

I've jumped around alot on what I think happened to Nancy, almost every day I think something different after reading comments here and in the media. But where I'm at right now (all IMO and not source-based):

Ransom notes are opportunistic due to the delay in them being sent and that there are 2 deadlines

A particular family member (or possibly 2) involved in Nancy's disappearance, unsure what unfolded or if it was planned. Blood was planted, they missed the camera on the roof (hopefully LE have footage from this but not hopeful). Something happened in the home of AG, either during or after. I believe LE found something in AG's garage. I also suspect LE have found camera footage of a car related to Nancy's disappearance on the night/early morning she disappeared.

 

[Cassie P]

It's my theory that whenever crimes look disorganised it's as a result of a spanner in the works and something changing in an original plan.

JMO

Yes and also a disorganized crime can be the result of inexperienced or young criminals.
Even experienced killers make mistakes.

 

[GlobeFireCandle]

I just don't think it's the sister's husband. Your sister-in-law is a major public news journalist and you're going to orchestrate a kidnapping, or a coverup to look like a kidnapping, and you are truly going to send, or have other people send, ransom notes to TMZ while the FBI is literally surveilling you? Most kidnappings for ransom are kept quiet, out of the media, try to steer away from authorities being called, and the culprits just want their money. This way would be awfully bold and risky and reckless.

But, we could go in circles. Nothing would really surprise me anymore in this case.

If he is involved I don’t believe it is a kidnapping. I think the ransom is a hoax or extortion by someone unconnected.

 

[Cassie P]

Do you have a source? Honestly NG having POA over SIL property does not make
sense.

I agree, it would have been the opposite. Adult children have POA over elderly parent.

 

[tkcrockett]

I'm very curious about the recent three and a half hour nighttime search by the Sheriff's dept. (very widely reported in this thread and in the media) of an area home that's not the home of NG. (please forgive the vagueness, I'm just trying to be certain I don't break the rules here).

I'm wondering if anyone here familiar with police forensics/luminol tests would happen to know if police normally, even if they see no traces on the luminol tests, would follow up their low light photos (meant to show the luminol) with flashes (meant to show the scene?) Or, if they saw nothing on the luminol, would they skip a lot of the regular flash photos? And, if they found something they wanted to do a DNA test on, what kind of timeframe would be normal for them getting results?

Thanks!

I’ve been wondering/asking this too. So if they luminol it and nothing shows up I’ve been told upthread that they still take the picture to document that nothing lit up. I hope that makes some sense

 

[CSIDreamer]

That's kind of the way I'm leaning. But I don't think the perp is the ransomer. I think that's an opportunist.

I'm leaning towards it being one person. Whoever wrote that ransom note has had no worries NG would be found. That original note was a 7 day offer, so to speak. I'm thinking if you're an opportunist, you'd be making it no more than 24 hours. The more I read this thread, the less sure I am that family is to blame. JMO.

Thanks for the jumping off point.

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Just doing some Googling, I just came across something I was not familiar with. I had no idea SG had been married before, prior to her current marriage. I guess I haven't heard it mentioned before.

I'm wondering if---LE is checking out everyone way way way back when in all of the children's lives. Former boyfriends/spouses, former classmates, etc.

Who would have the means and motivation to kidnap NG?

 

[Chainspell]

While its a little quiet in here, for those who are adamant the one/s who wrote the ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy, what is your reasoning?

And for those who believe the ransom note writer/s are not the same as those responsible for what happened to Nancy, what are your reasons for thinking this?

And for those who are on the fence, what are your reasons, what is it that is making it difficult to lean one way or the other?

(we don't have all the evidence and information from the investigation, so noone can really know right now what LE know, but just thought it would be interesting to review where we are all at and why)

I yoyo back and forth. I was leaning family involved a few days ago with the ransom being totally separate and a scammer, now I lean towards more validity of the ransom and the kidnapper being affiliated with one another. Though I can't make logic of the kidnapping and ransom angle, I have to just accept understanding on what kidnappings for ransom are 'typically' needs to be thrown out the window in this case. How LE and FBI are acting, Susannah implying on the most recent video she will pay, and the FBI continuing to put up missing persons billboards (all the way in Houston, even, mentioned earlier in this thread), makes it sound like there is at least some plausibility to this.

Timeline fogginess and unwillingness to clear TC gives me pause, because at this point, if it's not ransom note writer, many seem to think it's TC. Anything I say about possible TC/AG involvement is just me speculating, trying to look for possible solutions that could explain inconsistencies. As a teacher myself, accusations he is currently facing online in part (imo) thanks to AB could be devastating for his career even if he's cleared. I've seen speculation it's a ruse to put the true kidnapper at ease but even an implication he's possibly involved will haunt him professionally, we are under so much scrutiny every day and many a parent would be worried about him teaching their children. At the same time, I'm horrified to think of someone I consider a fellow peer could carry out a crime like this, even if it was (I stress this, theoretically) in a moment of extremely rash anger. One of the grades he reportedly teaches (6th) requires a remarkable amount of patience, compassion and good humor to be successful. It's hard of me to fathom, even though I know sometimes the people you least expect can be responsible for horrible things. I would hope that Pima County investigators would understand the severity of all that, and would make it their top priority to clear TC first and soon after publicly. So them not doing so, even if I have some questions about their investigating methods, makes me think there has to be something there, even if we're not personally privy to it. I don't think he would have the capability of setting up these ransom notes anyways with how much scrutiny he is probably under, unless he has an accomplice, which then carries this into the realm of premeditation.

All of this is JMO, of course. If you had to make me pick right now, I'd probably say kidnappers are real and wrote the note. But, I think there still has to be something that prevents LE from clearing TC, or its otherwise pure incompetence, and I'm hoping for NG and her family's sake it's not that. (Sorry for the rambling, it's late here)

 

[Chainspell]

As I stated in another comment, in the SIL theory, this church phone call was a major problem in the cover up. They had to respond and get the police involved much sooner than they had hoped. So they had to scramble and re think the plan.

Yeah, I could see this, thus the explanation of whatever they were up to might not line up. Reminds me of the Watts family.

 

[shonyakay]

As I stated in another comment, in the SIL theory, this church phone call was a major problem in the cover up. They had to respond and get the police involved much sooner than they had hoped. So they had to scramble and re think the plan.

We don't know when the church friend called the family. I wished LE would have given that information to us but maybe they can't because the timing of that call is a crucial part of this investigation - which may be why the call was left out of LE's timeline at the presser and why the timing of that call was left out of the DC complaint.