AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[SaraSmile]

Dan O'Shea, a retired Navy SEAL and former coordinator of a Hostage Working Group was on Elizabeth Vargas and his (speculative) take was that this could be a media driven motive. Thought it was interesting:

AB opens with: Dan O'Shea talks about the kidnap business because it's what he works in for a living, right? He's the negotiator. He said, "Kidnap for ransom is a business. They're not idiots. They want their money. They do this. They have a protocol. They have a system. They're typically pretty sophisticated kidnapped for ransom. They don't typically beat the [ __ ] out of their victims and then ask for money without any other communication. They just don't operate in this way. They operate in a way where they can get their money. I want you to hear from Dan O'Shea because I think he says it far more eloquently than I do.

DO: Yeah, but the reality is they have not provided proof of life. Um and again, this is unlike any case I've ever seen. And I've been tracking cases now for 20 plus years. I, you know, my two years in Iraq, but I I've almost got a PhD in this and I've never come across this case with, you know, the demands sent to TMZ to local news media. Um, they need to go directly to the family. They're asking for millions of dollars on Bitcoin, which will be untraceable if that money is sent. And this is, they're not acting in good faith.

And I frankly think this group is going after the news media. They've created this 24/7 news cycle. And I think this exposure may be part of it. So you have to look at, you know, the motives. Why would you go after, you know, Savannah Guthrie is a very high-profile figure, but you know, she's not controversial. Um, why would they go after her mother who's, you know, got a health condition? She's 84.

But my bigger concern is the fact that they used violence at the scene, you know. Yes. Because we know that NY's blood was found on the front stoop. She must she was hurt at some point while she was abducted, right? So, from the get-go, the family cannot trust that they're dealing with a with an honest broker from day one. Kidnapping is a business.

Kidnap for ransom is a business and people need to play by the rules. This in this group or this individual is is not playing by the rules. Therefore, the family and the others will be hesitant to move forward because there are no good faith negotiations in this case.

12:25 mark

I watched that AB report yesterday,
they are not acting in good faith, they have a protocol, this is a business! ( paraphrased)
Hard to understand because kidnappers are dangerous criminals.

 

[bestill]

The joy of having a long thread... much easier to pull an older post forward.

In case some missed it.. here ya go!

She's going to have to pin that at the top of every page, imo. I sure hope the thread doesn't get shut down for clean up!

 

[Cassie P]

JMO - The FBI isn't a good ole' boy network using 35 year old profiling studies by far. They have continuously updated their methodologies and cutting edge technologies along with the rest of the world, if not ahead of them. They developed CODIS, AFIS way back when, and they're the lead Federal Agency in Cyber Security, Terrorism, etc.

The FBI has been instrumental in Genetic Genealogy Testing working with LE in conjunction with the forefront leaders like Othram and Parabon. The Golden State Killer was the first big break in GG, and the latest one I can think of off the top of my head was the Idaho Murderer who killed 4 College Students. Many, many old cold cases have been solved as well.

MOO

I agree with you, and this is the point I have been making.

 

[LAborn]

Why not do a screenshot? If these people are so technically sophisticated, there has to be a way to provide it. IMO, they just don't want to provide or can't.

What I'm saying is the "contact form" on some websites that have it, won't allow anything other than text submissions. It has nothing to do with the sender's tech skills. If they had an email address contact, they could attach other content, but I suspect that would be risky and easier to trace. Not sure how much you can encrypt images.

 

[browneyes]

Sweet Nancy, I hope you are ok. We are all hoping for the best outcome.

 

[academyrd]

Billionaires can make things happen. It’s interesting that the Epstein files were released right before NG went missing and this story has then DOMINATED the 24 hours news cycle for a week. I’m not a tin foil hat conspiracy guy, but is that just a coincidence?

 

[shonyakay]

This case has so many twists and turns —and I just have to say that I found the repost and the question a little weird (sorry AJ). Why check back later? Could this be a veiled communication. For someone? Prob reading more onto the post —and repost (which is what caught my eye) but why ask that question twice and then come back later? What are you waiting to see?

I took what she stated as she was leaving the site for now but would be back on later to follow up / possibly answer questions. That was just my impression.

 

[waldojabba]

I find timelines to be very helpful (especially in a case like this where there are a lot of moving parts and lots of speculation) so I spent a while putting together a timeline (side note: I did not use AI to research or assemble this, just a bunch of my time and brainpower!). If I missed anything, please let me know!

All times are in MST unless otherwise indicated. Sources are listed in parenthesis – when possible, information is from LE, either Sheriff Nanos or FBI Special Agent in Charge Heith Janke.

January 31, 2026

5:32pm - NG takes an Uber to the family’s home (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

9:48pm - NG is dropped off at home based on the garage door opening (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

9:50pm - Garage door closes (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

February 1, 2026

1:47am - Doorbell camera disconnects (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

2:12am - Software detects a person on a camera but no video is available. Unable to determine which camera detected the person. (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

2:28am - NG’s pacemaker app shows it was disconnected (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

11:56am - The family checks on NG and discovers her missing (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

12:03 - 911 is called (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

12:15pm - A patrol unit arrives at NG’s home (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

February 2, 2026

6:42pm - Tucson news station KOLD receives a ransom demand via anonymous email with demands that needed to be completed “before 5PM on Thursday the 5th.” (KOLD)

February 3, 2026

Morning - TMZ receives a ransom note demanding “millions” in Bitcoin for NG’s release. (TMZ)

1:49pm - PCSO releases a statement on Facebook stating “we are aware of reports circulating about possible ransom note(s) regarding the investigation into Nancy Guthrie.” (PCSO Facebook)

February 4, 2026

7:59am - PCSO states “at this point, investigators have not identified a suspect or person of interest in this case” and cautions that “the sharing of unverified accusations or false information is irresponsible (PCSO Facebook)

Just after 3pm - A black Suburban pulled up to AG’s home and about 4 or 5 people who appeared to be LE agents got out and went inside (KPNX live broadcast)

Around 3:20pm - Two of the people presumed to be LE exit AG’s home and retrieve supplies from the Suburban, including what appeared to be a tripod, and reenter the home (KPNX live broadcast)

Approx. 4-6pm - LE conducts a search at NG’s home because, according to Nanos, “the FBI wanted to take a look” (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser). The search lasts roughly 2 hours and dog was brought in during the search (Brian Entin; ABC12 reporter Ford Hatchett)

6:22pm - The Guthrie family releases a video statement. SG acknowledges the family is aware of the ransom demands and says “we need to know that she is alive and that you have her. We want to hear from you, and we are ready to listen. Please, reach out to us.” (SG’s Instagram)

February 5, 2026

Approx. 1:30pm - The FBI announces a $50,000 reward for information leading to the recovery of NG or the arrest and conviction of anyone involved in her disappearance (Janke, Feb. 5 presser)

5pm (timezone not specified) - First deadline in the ransom demand (KOLD)

5:05pm - CG releases a video message on SG’s Instagram addressing NG’s abductor and says “we need you to reach out and we need a way to communicate with you so we can move forward.” (SG’s Instagram)

February 6, 2025

11:45am - KOLD receives a new message via email from NG’s alleged abductor. The note was sent the same way as the previous note (reporter Briana Whitney)

3:01pm - KOLD publicly announces the receipt of the note from NG’s alleged abductor. (reporter Mary Coleman)

3:05pm - PCSO releases a statement stating that “the FBI and Pima County Sheriff’s Department are aware of a new message regarding Nancy Guthrie.” (PCSO)

3:35pm - Police close down a large section of NG’s street for “investigative purposes” (reporter Michael Ruiz; reporter Brian Entin)

Approx. 5:45pm - LE removes what appears to be a camera from the roof of the casita and NG’s house (reporter Michael Ruiz)

7:46pm - A tow truck arrives at NG’s house and removes a blue Subaru from the garage (reporter Brian Entin)

9:02pm - A forensics vehicle, a white Toyota Camry, and an unmarked white Chevy SUV arrive at AG’s house. People got out of the forensics vehicle and the Camry and walked around to the side of the house and left after about 5 minutes (reporter Brian Entin, reporter Michael Ruiz).

February 9, 2026

5pm (timezone not specified) - Second deadline in the ransom demand (KOLD)

Unable to place on timeline

KGUN also received a ransom demand, but the date it was received has not been released (KGUN9)

LE visited the Circle K on Oracle Road in Tucson after “receiving a tip regarding a vehicle of interest, and our team has provided them access to the store’s surveillance video.” (NBC News)

2:12am - Software detects a person on a camera but no video is available. Unable to determine which camera detected the person. (Nanos, Feb. 5 presser)

I am pretty sure this got refined to the software detecting" movement" - they do not know for example if it was a person or an animal since no video

JMO

 

[emigrate]

As many white vans that are witnessed in crimes, you’d really think we’d have a lot less unsolved crimes in this country. Just look for the white van!

Eta: Yes i’m well aware it’s the most common vehicle known to man. Just a bit of levity

Back in the old black and white movies the good guys rode in on white horses. In modern times the bad guys ride off in white vans, what a world.

 

[Sadi]

a friend of mine has a pacemaker and if it detects something off with heart rate, etc. the hospital he goes to is alerted. That has happened twice and an ambulance was sent out immediately. I don't know if he also has an app on his phone, but probably. Doesn't seem like Nancy Guthrie's pacemaker connected to the doctor or hospital, but information we get is limited

Would it be possible to distinct a change in heart rates due to being attacked/scared? I don’t have a pacemaker, but I do know when I’ve been startled and scared, my heart rate is very high.

 

[moonbeams]

Doesn't say the van was collected by LE though, does it? Doesn't back up AJ comment.

words used matter. and she's a writer. i asked my husband if someone wrote a white was collected what does that mean and he said that LE had it. words have meanings.

 

[thefragile7393]

Billionaires can make things happen. It’s interesting that the Epstein files were released right before NG went missing and this story has then DOMINATED the 24 hours news cycle for a week. I’m not a tin foil hat conspiracy guy, but is that just a coincidence?

IMO, yes.

 

[Rush4087]

the POTUS is not a reliable source of factual information on many things, IMO

Link? Political

 

[PipeyRella]

Something that has been bothering me this morning and very possible someone one has mentioned it in the many pages of this thread. During the instagram video of the siblings, when SG was talking about NG's need for medications, she said: "She lives in constant pain. She is without any medicine. She needs it to survive. She needs it not to suffer." This was curious to me and very intentional sounding. Does NG take pain medication? Does someone in her orbit know this (family, caretakers, groundkeepers, etc)? I know there have been (unverified) rumors of a family member having a possible addiction problem (again - unverified!). It would not surprise me if this ended up having to do with drugs.

 

[thefragile7393]

words used matter. and she's a writer. i asked my husband if someone wrote a white was collected what does that mean and he said that LE had it. words have meanings.

Again, semantics possibly. Again, it's hopefully being addressed.

 

[girlhasnoname]

I know who he is too.

He mentioned the DOJ and the FBI had new information when asked about a suspect as late as a couple of hours from the time that clip was made. He describes it as a 'horrible situation' and that makes me worry very much for Nancy.

 

[thefragile7393]

Link?

I don't need a link for my opinion based on what has been seen and reported over the last few years. "IMO" means exactly that-"IMO". However if you want to google you're free to do so. I'm not going to derail the thread further by posting information that has nothing to do with this case.

 

[missy1974]

She's going to have to pin that at the top of every page, imo. I sure hope the thread doesn't get shut down for clean up!

This is an every day rule on WS's as far as I know, no need to pin it IMO

One of the reasons I come here is to discuss a case, with facts and opinions about the case.

If I want to discuss politics, I have other places to do that, I'm sure others can find those same places JMO of course.

 

[Sessiebo]

Why not? AB stated she had information from a reliable source without naming and is considered reliable here but DJT who is actually talking to the FBI etc regarding this case shouldn't be considered reliable? Can't have it both ways. Take what info we get with a grain of salt if you want but I think both should be considered reliable IMO

Very well said!

 

[Curiousraccoon]

The neighbors 44 year old son has a criminal record that includes Criminal Trespass and Stalking. And, ironically, owns or previously owned a roofing company.

Sounds very sus, but where is this information from, please?
@outloudthink

ETA: is there a private thread on this?