• #13,941
Considering POTUS, he does like to be front and center in many things. No disrespect intended, just my observations.
 
  • #13,942
I think it's telling that there were no statements directly toward their mother in the newest video. I know it's all carefully scripted, but the lack of messages of love and support really stood out to me, as if they already know she's no longer able to hear anything.

That's a good albeit somber point. In the first appeal SG and AG talked directly to their mother.
 
  • #13,943
Does anyone know who dropped her off, and why so late? I wonder if it was a special celebration. Usually elderly people don’t stay up that late.
@OldCop She could have been in a nightgown or something. We don't know when she actually disappeared
Well, if she was dropped off at 930, then a call came in the next day at noon, she could've changed outfits multiple times by that point (pajamas, new outfit in the morning). They likely can't say with accuracy currently.
That dinner keeps bothering me. Do we know if it was attended only by family or if others attended? Did a guest at the dinner put something in NG's food or drink to make sure she went straight to bed that night and slept soundly? NG may have had mobility problems but don't underestimate the ability of a senior to kick your butt if you put hands on them!
 
  • #13,944
Long post, sorry, but I had to get my theory out.

I have suspected all along there were at least two suspects involved - one to restrain NG and the other one to grab the vehicle. The blood splatter IMO suggests NG stood on the porch for a minute before being loaded into a vehicle, and certainly an abductor wouldn’t leave her there alone for that time while they retrieved their car. One suspect stands there with NG, restraining her, while the other drives there to pick them up.

Now here’s where my theory gets wild but hear me out. If we are to assume the SIL is one of these individuals, he cannot be sending the ransom notes since the FBI is literally breathing down his neck. However, the way things are panning out (evidence collection at his home, towed vehicle) it seems he has some part to play. At the same time, the ransom notes seem to provide proof that whoever is sending them also had a part in the crime.

What if the SIL planned this all with someone else? The goal was to collect as much money as possible from the Guthrie family, more than what just inheritance would’ve provided. SIL drove NG home and then returned back to his home. The second suspect went to NG’s property and carried out the abduction. SIL came and picked suspect # 2 and NG up (so no SIL DNA at the scene). They returned to SIL’s house where they harmed NG (so blood evidence at SIL house). Then, when the news all broke, the plan was for the second guy to send the notes with information about the crime scene and extort SG for money (providing a further alibi for SIL because there’s no way he could’ve sent them, and whoever sent them obviously did it). Then, SIL makes off with part of the inheritance and his cut of the eventual ransom and
he’s provided the perfect defense of “look this kidnapper did it for ransom!”

This is all JMO, please don’t come for me.
How could the SIL ever take advantage of the funds even if he were to receive any? Their spending will certainly be examined, any minute change in lifestyle, purchase, etc. If he did it, it almost seems like it would have been out of anger, because she was inserting herself or influencing his wife in some way that was affecting him negatively.
 
  • #13,945
I believe this abduction was by the cartel. Someone knowing she was wealthy and Savannah was her daughter. From the blood spots on the porch, she was hurt in the abduction. Though they were spots, that’s a lot of blood. She may have tried to fight them. Maybe a knife was used. Sadly, I don’t think she survived this week. The stress, her health, all of that is against her.

The abductor knows how to transfer money using bitcoin. The SIL seems too risky. If he needed money and couldn’t handle his own, would he be smart enough to know how to transfer to bitcoin? This could have been planned by some workers in the neighborhood who are at least owing the cartel and was sizing up the neighborhood. Or could be the cartel working with or forcing the SIL.

The recent video of Savannah and her siblings and the words she used makes me think they know she’s gone and they just want her back for closure. Their stress has to be enormous. The only strange thing is asking her return so they can celebrate with her.

Checking the man hole in the yard is something that should have been done the first day. I truly don’t understand why the LE allowed family or reporters around the crime scene. I’m hoping they didn’t just lock in on the SIL because he is of a bad character.

It is strange to me that neither the SIL, nor Camron’s wife, if he has one, are part of the video asking for her return. But then maybe best to just have the three children handle it.

The cartels are very powerful in Arizona and Texas, and especially known in the Tucson area.

Praying for Mrs Guthrie’s safety and return.

I must admit, I do keep thinking about the cartels. I am so ignorance about them.
BUT I just feel it just leads to such rabbit holes, and arguments.

But your comment sure had me twitching.....
The cartels are very powerful in Arizona and Texas, and especially known in the Tucson area.
 
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  • #13,946
You can't just go out and get POA on someone. It's not like taking out a life insurance policy and faking a signature. NG would need to have requested the POA and consulted a lawyer, then sign the document in front of the drafting attorney and a notary (sometimes the same person). I have guardianship, conservatorship, and durable POA over my mom who is now in memory care. Believe me when I say that there is a lot that goes into having a POA drafted for oneself, and also being assigned POA.
100%. Also if a child brought a parent in to a lawyer's office suggesting the parent get a POA (or life insurance, or change a trust/will, etc.) the lawyer would hopefully look into the matter further, meet with the parent alone, or refuse to do it, to make sure the parent wasn't being coerced by the child (or any other person suggesting an elderly person create/change legal documents).

Also spouses can get a POA for the other spouse to sign real estate documents if they won't be around for the closing, that's pretty typical too (I saw comments AG had a POA for TC so I'm just addressing that too, I've worked in both areas of law).
 
  • #13,947
  • #13,948
While its a little quiet in here, for those who are adamant the one/s who wrote the ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy, what is your reasoning?

And for those who believe the ransom note writer/s are not the same as those responsible for what happened to Nancy, what are your reasons for thinking this?

And for those who are on the fence, what are your reasons, what is it that is making it difficult to lean one way or the other?

(we don't have all the evidence and information from the investigation, so noone can really know right now what LE know, but just thought it would be interesting to review where we are all at and why)

I am on the fence.

I think that it depends on what was in that first ransom note as proof they were there. If for example, it said the watch was found on a shelf in the living room, or a specific spot in the kitchen and it WAS, then that would give me reason to believe it. We don't know much about the house at all. And we don't know what was in the note. BUT, the FBI still hasn't been able to find the sender and NG is still missing. I think the long deadline and her not being found has made them awfully lucky and unless they knew were NG was (alive or unfortunately dead), how would they know it would take this long? If it's a hoax, why give such a long time, get your payday and get out.

I don't think it was the son in law. I don't have a reason, I just don't.

I think it is more likely it was random, someone familiar with the house, the family, but was maybe a contractor, or did some sort of work at the house, and not necessarily recently.

Of course, all JMO
 
  • #13,949
I actually agree. It's a step away from junk science. So, "my profiling" is based only on whatever we know or think we know about this case.
Meant no disrespect- its good to pull the data apart to see where the weak spots are.

There are some great books on this subject of profiling and how they borrow many tactics from fortune tellers and mediums.

There are statistical based models of crime that are very useful. The issue with this case is that all of the common patterns have very significant problems with them.

The generally accepted patterns IMO-

-She was more likely than not killed by someone close to her or related.

-This person is more likely to be a male than not.

-She is far less likely to be a victim of a kidnapping than she is a random crime or a familial crime (murder during a burglary, argument, heat of passion).

-It is likely, if this was a murder, to be hidden very far (<50 miles) from where the crime occurred.

The family seems to be willing to bet $6M that the kidnapping story is the correct one, but is the least likely in my mind.
 
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  • #13,950
My thoughts—accident by sil—mom deceased. He/they (ag/tc) don’t want to miss out on inheritance and go to jail so he covers it up and gets someone (band acquaintance??) to take her body somewhere. Once the “false” ransom note is received, the person who disposed of the body decides to get into the action and sends note #2 (the one all future comms are based on) and is now blackmailing sil for the right info and to encourage ransom payment. If he gets the ransom-maybe sil gets a cut but not all 6.
 
  • #13,951
are you thinking that she opened the door (from inside), went a step or two outside, something happened to cause the bleeding, she stood there a bit bleeding and cough/sneeze/spit and then went (carry/push/whatever) inside?
Yes I think she was hit after answering the door.That’s why the ring camera was removed.I also think that the interior camera that sensed a movement , was her going to answer the door.She was pushed, dragged etc , inside after answering the door.Shortly after her pacemaker sync disconnected.She was then taken out the back door.(thus the floodlights being disabled beforehand.)Hopefully the camera found on the roof shows something, but it could have been pitch dark.I think this is why they are still concentrating on the back of house and beyond .
 
  • #13,952
Yes and also a disorganized crime can be the result of inexperienced or young criminals.
Even experienced killers make mistakes.
yet sophisticated enough to not be caught yet. Every day that goes by and the FBI hasn't tracked them down, makes me lean more towards it being real. How frustrating this must be for the family.
 
  • #13,953
My thoughts—accident by sil—mom deceased. He/they (ag/tc) don’t want to miss out on inheritance and go to jail so he covers it up and gets someone (band acquaintance??) to take her body somewhere. Once the “false” ransom note is received, the person who disposed of the body decides to get into the action and sends note #2 (the one all future comms are based on) and is now blackmailing sil for the right info and to encourage ransom payment. If he gets the ransom-maybe sil gets a cut but not all 6.
Same lines but I think it was not by accident.
 
  • #13,954
While its a little quiet in here, for those who are adamant the one/s who wrote the ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy, what is your reasoning?
Adamant is too strong of a word, but the longer this goes on, the more I am inclined to believe that the ransom note writer is either the same party, or at least an insider. I just feel like it would be too easy for LE to debunk it as an outsider by this point if it was someone who had no inside knowledge at all of what happened. It's impossible to say for sure, of course, given how little information has been released. My opinion only, and really more of a gut feeling than an opinion.
 
  • #13,955
Good morning to everyone!

I just wanted to chime in with some thoughts I've been mulling over:

1) It is tempting to think that this is all hingeing on SG and her work, and I would think -if that is the tack being taken- that it's more a fan of someone she's "grilled" during an interview.
2) The cartel theory is not convincing to me because there is a degree of patient drawing-out of the notes that doesn't match the usual "kidnap, ransom request and here's the body, you took too long."
3) Also, the cartel theory seems to feed into a more political aspect (that immigrants, or foreign bad actors are involved), and this seems personal.
4) The timeline is very suspect; it would be helpful to know the time for the service that NG supposedly (and I say this because the matter hasn't been clarified to satisfaction) missed, the time of the call, and so on and so forth.
5) Everyone's finances have been investigated; it might take time to get everything they need, but the basics are clear to LE by now...it HAS been a week, and there must have been discussions about who and how the ransom would be funded.
6) Speculating about family relationships, I think, is excessively intrusive. The situation is already fraught for them, and I don't doubt there have been copious discussions and arguments about big or small grievances from time immemorial. That part should be left for the investigators to dissect as part of their process, but we sitting on the bleachers can't pretend we know what is going on behind closed doors among these relatives.

These are all my own opinions on the subject, and I apologize if they seem silly or naive. I fear that there are two separate narratives here, and one of them (the ransom demands and the "wild goose chases" being triggered by messages we are unaware of) will be what brings the whole thing to a head for the real perpetrator(s).

I just pray that NG is found even though I seriously doubt that, at this point and with all the emotional, psychological and physical trauma she's endured, she is still alive.

Please be kind in your responses. I mean well and do my best to be clear, but this is not my first language and I am getting older every day.
 
  • #13,956
<snipped & BBM>
On Saturday night, sheriff's detectives were at the home of Guthrie's daughter [AG], as part of a follow-up search in the normal course of the case, a spokesperson confirmed.

The search was consented to, two of the three officials briefed on the search said.
 
  • #13,957
I don’t think the kidnapping and ransom are related at all, but I don’t have any evidence other than my own opinion. Why would they wait to release their demands instead of providing that soon after N was discovered missing? I also question why provide two deadlines? I think someone else saw an opportunity and acted on it.

This is my issue with the ransom as well.....
When a ransom plan is concocted, I would think the ransom note was the first part of the plan, and would go out to family immediately.

sometimes I think this is a big fat joke to some online masterminds who wanted to see how far they could take this, and it really does make me sick....
 
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  • #13,958
My thoughts—accident by sil—mom deceased. He/they (ag/tc) don’t want to miss out on inheritance and go to jail so he covers it up and gets someone (band acquaintance??) to take her body somewhere. Once the “false” ransom note is received, the person who disposed of the body decides to get into the action and sends note #2 (the one all future comms are based on) and is now blackmailing sil for the right info and to encourage ransom payment. If he gets the ransom-maybe sil gets a cut but not all 6.
I think it's definitely within the realm of possibility.
 
  • #13,959
<snipped & BBM>
On Saturday night, sheriff's detectives were at the home of Guthrie's daughter [AG], as part of a follow-up search in the normal course of the case, a spokesperson confirmed.

The search was consented to, two of the three officials briefed on the search said.
So no warrant required?
 
  • #13,960
IMO: not much.

The family’s entrance is the garage door, AG and TC enter the home in search of NG and then call police.

Police arrive at front door and notice blood on front porch, enter the home and notice items of interest and lock it down as a crime scene.

If there was a LOT of blood in the home – keep in mind, the average body holds 10-12 pints – I’m sure AG and TC would have noticed.
on this note...
I was thinking about it last night laying in bed.

If AG and TC went to the home and there was blood... the thought crossed my mind that they could have had it on their shoes and then LE being in the home the other night... if any spots were found... how do they determine if it was from just being at the home or not?
 
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