AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Curiousobserver]

I actually agree. It's a step away from junk science. So, "my profiling" is based only on whatever we know or think we know about this case.

Meant no disrespect- its good to pull the data apart to see where the weak spots are.

There are some great books on this subject of profiling and how they borrow many tactics from fortune tellers and mediums.

There are statistical based models of crime that are very useful. The issue with this case is that all of the common patterns have very significant problems with them.

The generally accepted patterns IMO-

-She was more likely than not killed by someone close to her or related.

-This person is more likely to be a male than not.

-She is far less likely to be a victim of a kidnapping than she is a random crime or a familial crime (murder during a burglary, argument, heat of passion).

-It is likely, if this was a murder, to be hidden very far (<50 miles) from where the crime occurred.

The family seems to be willing to bet $6M that the kidnapping story is the correct one, but is the least likely in my mind.

 

[Fascinated1]

My thoughts—accident by sil—mom deceased. He/they (ag/tc) don’t want to miss out on inheritance and go to jail so he covers it up and gets someone (band acquaintance??) to take her body somewhere. Once the “false” ransom note is received, the person who disposed of the body decides to get into the action and sends note #2 (the one all future comms are based on) and is now blackmailing sil for the right info and to encourage ransom payment. If he gets the ransom-maybe sil gets a cut but not all 6.

 

[jillybean51]

are you thinking that she opened the door (from inside), went a step or two outside, something happened to cause the bleeding, she stood there a bit bleeding and cough/sneeze/spit and then went (carry/push/whatever) inside?

Yes I think she was hit after answering the door.That’s why the ring camera was removed.I also think that the interior camera that sensed a movement , was her going to answer the door.She was pushed, dragged etc , inside after answering the door.Shortly after her pacemaker sync disconnected.She was then taken out the back door.(thus the floodlights being disabled beforehand.)Hopefully the camera found on the roof shows something, but it could have been pitch dark.I think this is why they are still concentrating on the back of house and beyond .

 

[missy1974]

Yes and also a disorganized crime can be the result of inexperienced or young criminals.
Even experienced killers make mistakes.

yet sophisticated enough to not be caught yet. Every day that goes by and the FBI hasn't tracked them down, makes me lean more towards it being real. How frustrating this must be for the family.

 

[jillybean51]

My thoughts—accident by sil—mom deceased. He/they (ag/tc) don’t want to miss out on inheritance and go to jail so he covers it up and gets someone (band acquaintance??) to take her body somewhere. Once the “false” ransom note is received, the person who disposed of the body decides to get into the action and sends note #2 (the one all future comms are based on) and is now blackmailing sil for the right info and to encourage ransom payment. If he gets the ransom-maybe sil gets a cut but not all 6.

Same lines but I think it was not by accident.

 

[HoveringWombats]

While its a little quiet in here, for those who are adamant the one/s who wrote the ransom notes are the same one/s who kidnapped Nancy, what is your reasoning?

Adamant is too strong of a word, but the longer this goes on, the more I am inclined to believe that the ransom note writer is either the same party, or at least an insider. I just feel like it would be too easy for LE to debunk it as an outsider by this point if it was someone who had no inside knowledge at all of what happened. It's impossible to say for sure, of course, given how little information has been released. My opinion only, and really more of a gut feeling than an opinion.

 

[Athos65]

Good morning to everyone!

I just wanted to chime in with some thoughts I've been mulling over:

1) It is tempting to think that this is all hingeing on SG and her work, and I would think -if that is the tack being taken- that it's more a fan of someone she's "grilled" during an interview.
2) The cartel theory is not convincing to me because there is a degree of patient drawing-out of the notes that doesn't match the usual "kidnap, ransom request and here's the body, you took too long."
3) Also, the cartel theory seems to feed into a more political aspect (that immigrants, or foreign bad actors are involved), and this seems personal.
4) The timeline is very suspect; it would be helpful to know the time for the service that NG supposedly (and I say this because the matter hasn't been clarified to satisfaction) missed, the time of the call, and so on and so forth.
5) Everyone's finances have been investigated; it might take time to get everything they need, but the basics are clear to LE by now...it HAS been a week, and there must have been discussions about who and how the ransom would be funded.
6) Speculating about family relationships, I think, is excessively intrusive. The situation is already fraught for them, and I don't doubt there have been copious discussions and arguments about big or small grievances from time immemorial. That part should be left for the investigators to dissect as part of their process, but we sitting on the bleachers can't pretend we know what is going on behind closed doors among these relatives.

These are all my own opinions on the subject, and I apologize if they seem silly or naive. I fear that there are two separate narratives here, and one of them (the ransom demands and the "wild goose chases" being triggered by messages we are unaware of) will be what brings the whole thing to a head for the real perpetrator(s).

I just pray that NG is found even though I seriously doubt that, at this point and with all the emotional, psychological and physical trauma she's endured, she is still alive.

Please be kind in your responses. I mean well and do my best to be clear, but this is not my first language and I am getting older every day.

 

[citizen_sleuth]

Live updates: Search for Savannah Guthrie's mother enters second week

Follow live updates as the search for Nancy Guthrie enters its second week in Arizona

www.nbcnews.com

<snipped & BBM>
On Saturday night, sheriff's detectives were at the home of Guthrie's daughter [AG], as part of a follow-up search in the normal course of the case, a spokesperson confirmed.

The search was consented to, two of the three officials briefed on the search said.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I don’t think the kidnapping and ransom are related at all, but I don’t have any evidence other than my own opinion. Why would they wait to release their demands instead of providing that soon after N was discovered missing? I also question why provide two deadlines? I think someone else saw an opportunity and acted on it.

This is my issue with the ransom as well.....
When a ransom plan is concocted, I would think the ransom note was the first part of the plan, and would go out to family immediately.

sometimes I think this is a big fat joke to some online masterminds who wanted to see how far they could take this, and it really does make me sick....

 

[SMK777]

My thoughts—accident by sil—mom deceased. He/they (ag/tc) don’t want to miss out on inheritance and go to jail so he covers it up and gets someone (band acquaintance??) to take her body somewhere. Once the “false” ransom note is received, the person who disposed of the body decides to get into the action and sends note #2 (the one all future comms are based on) and is now blackmailing sil for the right info and to encourage ransom payment. If he gets the ransom-maybe sil gets a cut but not all 6.

I think it's definitely within the realm of possibility.

 

[SMK777]

Live updates: Search for Savannah Guthrie's mother enters second week

Follow live updates as the search for Nancy Guthrie enters its second week in Arizona

www.nbcnews.com

<snipped & BBM>
On Saturday night, sheriff's detectives were at the home of Guthrie's daughter [AG], as part of a follow-up search in the normal course of the case, a spokesperson confirmed.

The search was consented to, two of the three officials briefed on the search said.

So no warrant required?

 

[missy1974]

IMO: not much.

The family’s entrance is the garage door, AG and TC enter the home in search of NG and then call police.

Police arrive at front door and notice blood on front porch, enter the home and notice items of interest and lock it down as a crime scene.

If there was a LOT of blood in the home – keep in mind, the average body holds 10-12 pints – I’m sure AG and TC would have noticed.

on this note...
I was thinking about it last night laying in bed.

If AG and TC went to the home and there was blood... the thought crossed my mind that they could have had it on their shoes and then LE being in the home the other night... if any spots were found... how do they determine if it was from just being at the home or not?

 

[chefb265]

Does anyone know who dropped her off, and why so late? I wonder if it was a special celebration. Usually elderly people don’t stay up that late.

Her son in law dropped her off and waited until she was inside the house before he left. It’s odd that she lives alone out there in a neighborhood like that one. You’d think the family would have someone with her or that she would live with a relative.

 

[osu]

Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

February 9, 2026 7:03AM ET

A former top FBI official has raised doubts about whether Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mom, Nancy, is really still alive and being held by kidnappers.

“I’m very skeptical of this,” former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker told Fox News’ “The Big Weekend Show” on Sunday. “Is this really a kidnapping? Does somebody really have her, and is she really alive?” he said of the fiends claiming to have her.

The former FBI bigwig voiced his suspicions after Savannah Guthrie and her two siblings took to social media to plead with their mother’s apparent abductor to return her — as they agreed to pay up to the abductors demanding $6 million ransom.

“If this was a kidnapping, it would be a very simple matter to authenticate and provide proof of life,” Swecker said, noting that no evidence had been “credibly authenticated at this point.” “You have to allow for the possibility that this was something more or something other than a kidnapping.”

Swecker also pointed to the ransom demands being reported, which skyrocketed from $1 million to a reported $6 million in a matter of days. “Remember now, it was 1 million not too long ago. All of a sudden, it’s 6 million,” Swecker told the outlet. “I really think there’s a third party here that’s just playing with them, opportunists who think they can exploit this situation.”

[…]

More at link:
Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

 

[UltraViolet4545]

I go back and forth on a couple of theories because this case is so very unusual.

It’s very hard for me to get past statistics and the “usual suspects.” A lot hinges on whether the ransom note writer is the same person who disappeared NG. I am also considering the overarching themes here and how they compare to other crimes. No matter what, I have never felt the ransom demand is the point. Ransom money is not the goal.

If the notes are an opportunist and not the person who took NG, then I fall back on statistics and a close family member. An accidental heat of the moment crime with a panicked coverup.

If the notes are from the person who harmed NG, it gets trickier for me. The notes have been given a lot of weight by the people close to this investigation which leads me to believe they are indeed credible. If that’s true, I see strong themes of power and control, someone who is giddy to puppeteer this situation.

It makes me think of BTK. Power, control, and sending notes to toy with police via the media.

Is this a sexually motivated killer? Is this a thrill kill wanting to see if he can get away with it? Is this a grudge collector from long ago with seething rage for the Guthrie family?

 

[jillybean51]

So no warrant required?

If there’s a court case, it’ll be a nightmare!

 

[Emerald1328]

I believe this abduction was by the cartel. Someone knowing she was wealthy and Savannah was her daughter. From the blood spots on the porch, she was hurt in the abduction. Though they were spots, that’s a lot of blood. She may have tried to fight them. Maybe a knife was used. Sadly, I don’t think she survived this week. The stress, her health, all of that is against her.

The abductor knows how to transfer money using bitcoin. The SIL seems too risky. If he needed money and couldn’t handle his own, would he be smart enough to know how to transfer to bitcoin? This could have been planned by some workers in the neighborhood who are at least owing the cartel and was sizing up the neighborhood. Or could be the cartel working with or forcing the SIL.

The recent video of Savannah and her siblings and the words she used makes me think they know she’s gone and they just want her back for closure. Their stress has to be enormous. The only strange thing is asking her return so they can celebrate with her.

Checking the man hole in the yard is something that should have been done the first day. I truly don’t understand why the LE allowed family or reporters around the crime scene. I’m hoping they didn’t just lock in on the SIL because he is of a bad character.

It is strange to me that neither the SIL, nor Camron’s wife, if he has one, are part of the video asking for her return. But then maybe best to just have the three children handle it.

The cartels are very powerful in Arizona and Texas, and especially known in the Tucson area.

Praying for Mrs Guthrie’s safety and return.

I would be more inclined to say Russia than the cartel. I just personally can’t see the cartel operating this way but I have no problem seeing Russia operating this way.

 

[SMK777]

Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

February 9, 2026

A former top FBI official has raised doubts about whether Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mom, Nancy, is really still alive and being held by kidnappers.

“I’m very skeptical of this,” former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker told Fox News’ “The Big Weekend Show” on Sunday. “Is this really a kidnapping? Does somebody really have her, and is she really alive?” he said of the fiends claiming to have her.

[…]

“If this was a kidnapping, it would be a very simple matter to authenticate and provide proof of life,” Swecker said, noting that no evidence had been “credibly authenticated at this point.” “You have to allow for the possibility that this was something more or something other than a kidnapping.”

Swecker also pointed to the ransom demands being reported, which skyrocketed from $1 million to a reported $6 million in a matter of days. “Remember now, it was 1 million not too long ago. All of a sudden, it’s 6 million,” Swecker told the outlet. “I really think there’s a third party here that’s just playing with them, opportunists who think they can exploit this situation.”
[…]

More at link:
Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

Thanks for posting this; I agree.

 

[tkcrockett]

Yes I think she was hit after answering the door.That’s why the ring camera was removed.I also think that the interior camera that sensed a movement , was her going to answer the door.She was pushed, dragged etc , inside after answering the door.Shortly after her pacemaker sync disconnected.She was then taken out the back door.(thus the floodlights being disabled beforehand.)Hopefully the camera found on the roof shows something, but it could have been pitch dark.I think this is why they are still concentrating on the back of house and beyond .

i am trying to get my mind with yours...if she opened the door from inside, why go outside? I can imagine open it, get hit, bleed etc but she had to have been outside to bleed outside. If she was hit as soon as she opened the door, wouldn't the blood be inside? Further, and I am no blood expert...in fact, I'm no expert on anything!...the blood doesn't appear to be spread out. It looks like someone stood in one spot and dripped. How does that fit?

Now that you have me thinking on this, I also can't fathom it in reverse...if she was taken out of the house I guess she would have to have stood there bleeding maybe while someone was locking all 4 locks behind them?? I don't even know if the door was locked but if it was, who had the key? Hasn't it been said that her keys, wallet, phone etc were in the house? I just can't make the blood work for me. I appreciate the thought provoking discussion

 

[fsngruv]

So no warrant required?

No warrant is required when the search is consented to