AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[su5ie]

There are so many possibilities here that every scenario has a pretty low probability of being right.

I get the impression this was targeted, as this guy came prepared. His actions with the doorbell camera don't indicate to me that he was overly familiar with that house.

It's almost as if he was told about it.

The ransom thing really throws this off. It doesn't appear that the FBI was buying it because that money was apparently not paid.

The demand occurred late in the proceedings, it was done bizarrely (reaching out to news outlets), and contained absolutely no proof of life. It looks to me like an afterthought, perhaps by an opportunist, or someone trying to mislead the investigation.

A kidnapper will most likely provide a photograph of the family's loved one being restrained . It terrorises the family into paying quickly. Which is what a captor wants . Swift transaction.

The longer the time spend in each others company the bigger the chance of dna transfer

This for me is the biggest indicator that the ransom notes are not connected to Nancy's disappearance

While Nancy is consider independent, she is also vulnerable due to age alone . The fact she needs a pacemaker indicates her heart is weak .

Over stimulation of the heart through exertion or panic puts her at a higher risk of a fatal heart attack hence her inability to walk far .

The term limited mobility is not only used for joints , it is also used for a person's ability for physical exertions

I feel it is fantasy to believe she left her home alive and I agree with your short synopsis of the ransom notes not correlating with the usual criteria seen in RL kidnapping scenarios

Times have changed in the way money is extracted from a victim but the blueprints remain the same

 

[HoveringWombats]

IMO- The perp seemed to be exploring the home, not executing a plan. In the front door video he didn't come prepared to cover the camera, but he improvises, then finally just takes it with him. I don't see him ever try the front door to see if it is unlocked.

BBM I don't think we would have seen that in the clips we have. Maybe he disabled/removed the camera before he tried that, but either way we don't have a complete end-to-end recording of his time at the front door, so we can't really say what he did or didn't try. JMO. (I don't really disagree with your overall conclusion, though.)

 

[submarine7]

If anybody followed the Adelson case, I'm wondering if last night's

Yes too much activity in and around AG's home. This visit looks a bit different the reel I watched several times via Fox showed items in a white (kitchen) trash bag as well as items contained within a brown grocery bag with handles. One of the people seemed interested in the mail box as well. Kinda looked like the family requesting certain items. But then I question why the family didn't send their privately employed investigator. Maybe the AG home is still under Pima Co control??

Any evidence would be moved in sealed evidence bags

 

[Curiousobserver]

For me, The Jacket has a lot of similarities to a Spyder - Ski jacket no hoodie. With the zipper and such.

I thought this one perhaps- Its a pack-n-go, easy to fit over other clothing, cheap, and lots of different styles, including with horizontal strips.

 

[Inthedetails]

Maybe he was testing to see if there was a motion sensor alarm, or floodlight in that coved entrance.

Yes, something like that.

But my theory falls apart when he takes NG away. WHY!?!

After all this time, I remain on the fence.

jmo

 

[fridaybaker]

Thinking that the fact that they released this guy is not a good harbinger of where they are in this case.

 

[NonnaBalogna]

Finally! I was trying to something recent about the pacemaker. Apologies if answered already. How far does the pacemaker need to be before disconnecting?

Answering my own question 30 feet

 

[allboys]

Random thought here which is all JMO/IMHO, etc.

If this was a kidnapping/ransom case, wouldn't it have behooved the perpetrator(s) to film a video of Nancy saying "Savannah/kids - please pay the ransom." Or hold up a newspaper with the date and a big note saying "please pay them what they want."

I don't think they've ever intended to show proof of life. Again, all my conjecture/opinion/musings.

Editing to add: and yes, I do understand the AI wrinkle in all of this and there is plenty of footage of her from The Today Show to work with on that front.

From what I’ve heard experts say is if an image were attached to the emailed ransom notes, that’s supplying “extra” digital information, which is more easily traced.

 

[farmgirl04]

For me, The Jacket has a lot of similarities to a Spyder - Ski jacket no hoodie. With the zipper and such.

I was adding something similar.

 

[jtfolden]

Finally! I was trying to something recent about the pacemaker. Apologies if answered already. How far does the pacemaker need to be before disconnecting?

It will disconnect, generally speaking, within 10-33ft or so depending on the environment (walls, etc).

 

[jtfolden]

Or there was a ruse to get her to open the door. "I'm law enforcement, there is a dangerous suspect on the lose around here" "I'm from the utility company. There is a dangerous gas leak, we need to turn off your gas". Something like that.....

While the person is in a ski mask?

 

[tbgo]

I wonder if they picked up any audio from these cams.

 

[TheDinks]

Last night my friend Strangeworld made the following comment... I was about to reply when my 'net dropped out!

Remember the parcel that we could see in one of the initial photos released of Nancy's front door, I wonder if he delivered that parcel?

Anyway, unable to comment I thought about it... what if when Feds were geofencing and found Carlos' phone exactly at Ms Guthrie's house. I mean, it could've been day after abduction, Monday morning... the package was noticed sitting out there fairly early on.

With an investigation underway, I don't see how he'd be able to get to front door but even if he handed it to an officer on the driveway, it still puts him effectively on the property... just not early hours Sun morn.

 

[NonnaBalogna]

It will disconnect, generally speaking, within 10-33ft or so depending on the environment (walls, etc).

Thank you. So it doesn’t have to do with time? Like he was in those for 40 minutes because the pacemaker disconnected? He could have just walked 30 feet away from her bedroom.

 

[Bodhi]

Has the possibility of a “bite light” been discussed? The 1st appears to be a light in the mouth & the reflective part of the back pack on either side, 2nd they use the light to pull flowers, 3rd - a light in the mouth

I didn't know such a thing existed. I figured it would be too awkward to turn a mini flashlight in your mouth on and off as quickly as the kidnapper does. It definitely looks like a bite light to me.

 

[tbgo]

It will disconnect, generally speaking, within 10-33ft or so depending on the environment (walls, etc).

And if it’s only 10 to 30 feet, she’s probably disconnected with her device many times. 30 feet is not that far and many people don’t walk around their house with their phone in their pocket 24/7.

 

[GlobeFireCandle]

Answering my own question 30 feet

Yes it could be way less between rooms or indoor/outdoor depending on the walls.

 

[fridaybaker]

Yes it is one thing that makes me think she was alive at that point when they took her

Yes. I have to think that the goal was kidnapping for ransom (most likely) and Nancy was injured in the process. However, I also think she probably succumbed to her injury or for some other reason died after a very short time in captivity; hence, no “proof of life” forthcoming. Because there there was none to give.

 

[Friday Fan]

I don't see that at all, actually I've state this point to the contrary.

He drew the gun front and center as he walked towards the door, and had a mask and gloves on a temperate night leaving all doubt of a ruse, rather "exposing himself" for intimidation.

Most pros would not expose themselves until they got in (both makes it easier to ruse your way in, and prevents a random person on the outside spotting you).

He also made no attempt at any easy disguise in this way (like the amazon vest or OSHA vest criminals now often use). The get up did not look in any way shape or form official and was one of the amateurish weird things often pointed out (clumsy thick chemical gloves, cheapo mismatched holster, reflective stripe backpack) Just an alarming haphazard alarming look that does not match any official reason to ruse to be there., like he was cosplaying the Zodiac kiler or something.

Now what you suggest is often used by criminals whether a common porch pirate stealing a package or a hit-man masquerading as a LEO (think Minnesota political executions case where he dressed like a cop and flashed the light at the eye-level when they opened the door). It's very easy to do in both getting the gear and imitating behavior. I am surprised he didn't go cliche all black tactical ninja, or have a molle vest with a velcro patch on it (police/dea whatever) or just go the hazmat vest (removed so easily) and flashlight "M'am I here to check on a gas leak in the area". There seemed zero effort on both fronts here.

BBM
They likely "knew" her. Knew she was older. Slower etc. He could have shined a light in her face. All she had to do was crack the door and he was in. With a younger home occupant, they would meet more resistance, but with her I think all she had to do was crack the door. With the camera disabled, maybe all she heard was a voice. She may not have thought to look out the side windows. All it would take is a split second lapse of judgment on NG's part and the guy was in.

Heck, my dad fell for that, "Hey it's your grandson. I'm in jail" scam. My dad, who was retired military owned his own business and was a licensed pilot at the time. Hence, my dad was of sound mind and body at the time. He fell for it because, "He sounded just like him" and wasn't aware of the scam.

Keep in mind those phone scams keep people on the phone for quite awhile, so it isn't a "split-second" lapse of judgment thing. Somehow my dad got out of it when he said that he would arrange a lawyer to get him out of jail or something like that. The caller then hung up. When the caller hung up, my dad freaked out and was worried about my nephew. So he impulsively called my nephew. My nephew answered his phone.

 

[Fascinated1]

Perhaps I'm mistaken but I understood it that the name and email were of the person offering the information. And they are offering to sell the information for 1 bitcoin.

Yes. My mistake. Thank you!!