Zero basis in reality. Due to proximity, you can't fully ignore the potential of cartels (but again, why?!), but beyond that this isn't nation state level stuff. And you're correct: absolutely not now with all that is going on. As of last week, the mullahs wanted to return to JCPOA (Iran nuke deal) where it left off in 2017, you don't kidnap a morning show host's mom if you're trying to diplo your way out of getting turned into glass. Especially with the amount of hardware sitting on your borders. Historically speaking, Iran sucked at direct action in the US and most op were attempts to silence critics/dissidents/etc.
Deranged fan/stalker for SG, idiot trying to make money, harebrained crime of opportunity gone awry... all far more likely.