AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[m00c0w]

Occam's razor can point toward a simple explanation like ransom/kidnapping if there are real ransom demands and credible evidence. Occam's razor doesn't mean "it's ransom" it means the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is more likely.

If these things are true:
The family publicly acknowledges ransom demands, they publicly say they will pay, there are credible reports that ransom notes/messages were sent, there is video of a suspect/abduction:

Then (right now) Occam's razor would favor the ransom kidnapping as the simplest explanation.

I mean, not really... because there are a tremendous amount of assumptions leading up to the kidnapping itself, as well as after the kidnapping. There would likely have to be multiple co-conspirators keeping this a secret from everyone. They would have to know who NG was, where she lived, who she was related to, when she would be home, that she would be alone, that she was not armed, that she had no security system... the list goes on and on. Someone that knows her and is familiar with her routine requires far less assumptions by the very nature of knowing her.

JMO

 

[Bluewing3102]

First time I'm seeing Border Patrol in the area. Could be routine or unrelated

 

[Monepone]

What were they referring to as 'today's news" when they posted that article. First time I have seen the blood spots on the path as well.

It was the release of the videos.

 

[white rabbit]

FBI/LE may be trying to make someone nervous, but not by filming the video "last night."
The blood spots were clearly visible in the very first crime scene photos, the video released yesterday had no blood, and explains the "mysterious" dried vegetation seen in those first crime scene photos.
I'd be willing to bet the blood spots are STILL there--so I can't believe that the video was filmed anytime after early am February 1st.

agree to disagree. LE never cordoned off the 'crime scene' on the front walk from day one. nor will they confirm which door(s) were entered or exited, plus they walked back the 'forced entry' comments.

has anyone found a link to confirm/deny/report that AG/SIL's car was towed/evidenced? pure question. they towed NG's car, you'd think they towed the last car in which she was allegedly a passenger...

 

[Monepone]

They just left it there? Strange. It’s a Men’s golf shirt.

Yeah, seems really weird they would just leave it, but nothing surprises me about this investigation.

 

[Luna20]

thank you...i don't disagree.

what i'm saying is that over the last 1160 pages we've gone round and round with zilch. IMO the "ransom requests", TMZ, etc etc are simply 'hoax' distractions. those of us that have been here for (too) a long time see 'it is what it is'.

for all we know the intruder video was filmed last night under the FBI and LE watch. we have no idea. they're trying to make someone nervous IMO. the media is analyzing stride length, posture, behavioral biometrics. PULEEEZ.

after thousands of speculations, i'm only more cemented in the who the why the where and the how. JMO.

What are the initials of the “who”?

 

[Van Helsing]

No, I've only shared it with WS.

Oh sorry, I didn't mean to imply you specifically. They've probably analyzed these images in fine detail. I bet they also review this web site, and that some of the media do too.

 

[SaraSmile]

What would Occam's razor say about the full backpack?

jmo

I think the full backpack had rope, gag, body bag (to avoid blood in vehicle, make it easier to move her).
Just my ideas.

 

[abanddb123]

Out of the blue question, Those gloves everyones talking about, would those gloves be used like in a lab or to handle hot things? Just asking. Moo

 

[Der Detektiv]

How could he, or even multiple people, move a body on foot out of the area?

Stretcher?

Cheap and easily available in shops.

 

[UsernameRequired]

"They now have over 15,000 phone calls that have come in leads. Some of them have been dead ends. I think the guy in Rio Rico is an example of that. But you can feel how they're, you know, desperate," Kelly said. "We're in 11 days. She's elderly. She has health problems. You know, Gabby and I, you know, we live there in Tucson. We live, you know, pretty, pretty close by, probably about five miles away. And we're, you know, praying for you know, for savannah's Mom, for Nancy."

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021748206590099657

 

[Friday Fan]

First time I'm seeing Border Patrol in the area. Could be routine or unrelated
View attachment 644014

They actually can assist LE to some extent. Maybe they can look for a body etc. See that it's night, they may have heat sensing equipment etc.

They showed up in Uvalde and it was a BP agent who finally shot the Robb Elementary school shooter.

It looks like they're going where others haven't been able to go. I don't think this is immigration enforcement.

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

View flight on Flightradar24

www.flightradar24.com

 

[Sticksandspades]

thank you...i don't disagree.

what i'm saying is that over the last 1160 pages we've gone round and round with zilch. IMO the "ransom requests", TMZ, etc etc are simply 'hoax' distractions. those of us that have been here for (too) a long time see 'it is what it is'.

for all we know the intruder video was filmed last night under the FBI and LE watch. we have no idea. they're trying to make someone nervous IMO. the media is analyzing stride length, posture, behavioral biometrics. PULEEEZ.

after thousands of speculations, i'm only more cemented in the who the why the where and the how. JMO.

How do you explain the Harvey Levin Interview about whats in the 'ransom letter'? He discusses items only the 'kidnapper' would know?

TMZ receives third letter claiming to know Nancy Guthrie kidnapper | Fox News Video

TMZ founder Harvey Levin joins 'America's Newsroom' after receiving another letter demanding cryptocurrency to ensure the safety of Nancy Guthrie. Levin says the note has been handed over to the FBI.

www.foxnews.com

 

[ssarahbg]

MOO
Speculation and theory:
After researching and reading a few theories and watching this most recent video, I do not think this was an intentional kidnapping or murder. I think the person was sent/hired to scare her. Then things went terribly wrong and then staging of the scene happened after the fact in the 40 minutes or before the pace maker disconnected. Now we are left to put the pieces together which is why none of what we see makes sense. Ransom notes are just opportunists trying to cash in and not related at all. I thought this from the beginning but after watching the video, I feel more strongly about this. I don’t think camera was removed right after this video of the perp but possibly after the situation went very wrong but not totally sure on that one.

My reasoning for this:
1. He’s way too nonchalant on camera for a kidnapping and really appears to inexperienced (weapon placement, foliage to cover the camera, body language)
2. He seems to want to be seen on the camera. Maybe not for police and the public but for Nancy to see him given that he does not know how this “scare” ends up.
3. He’s in the house for a long time based on the timeline given by police.
4. Blood on porch appears as if it was dripped (staged)
5. All of his “get up” appears to be newly purchased with the intention of looking scary. Weapon was placed where it was awkwardly so it was clearly visible. Not holstered on the hip which is more common.

Again, just my thoughts and MOO but things just do not add up at all.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I know that I too read somewhere that the back door was found propped open. This was close to the first mention of it here, confirming. I’m trying to find the actual article I read as well.

 

[EyeCandy]

so the blue shirt that was at the driveway of the home was it ever picked up by le

 

[PCHS]

I mean, not really... because there are a tremendous amount of assumptions leading up to the kidnapping itself, as well as after the kidnapping. There would likely have to be multiple co-conspirators keeping this a secret from everyone. They would have to know who NG was, where she lived, who she was related to, when she would be home, that she would be alone, that she was not armed, that she had no security system... the list goes on and on. Someone that knows her and is familiar with her routine requires far less assumptions by the very nature of knowing her.

JMO

I mean imo it is more straightforward now that there is someone on video in a mask. And occam's razor would say someone who has some familiarity with the home and that an elderly well off lady lived alone. She had staff that took care of the home inside and outside the house, not to mention the recent roof work. All of those people could realistically be familiar enough if they wanted to commit a robbery or take her to the ATM or whatever else their purpose was. There is no leap in logic there - the path is pretty linear to me imo

 

[JoeFromLB]

What I've seen so far from LE and FBI doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Sorry, but the idea that they're playing 4D chess is kind of laughable.
This poor woman might never be found. We've seen enough cold cases here to know that the odds are slim at this point.
You can't search every home and backyard in this large area. She might also have been taken to Mexico. So frustrating and sad.

 

[HerNameWasBuffy]

Out of the blue question, Those gloves everyones talking about, would those gloves be used like in a lab or to handle hot things? Just asking. Moo

No, if BE is right and they are nitrile gloves they are made to protect from chemicals. They aren't heat resistant.
We use them at work, they are similar to the latex gloves medical professionals use, but thicker and less supple so you would have less dexterity.

 

[SlimPickens]

Plenty of people don’t have DNA in CODIS. I’d venture most people, actually.

JMO

Most people are normal, meaning they're not in the .001% of the population that has either paid or unpaid sociopathic proclivities to kidnap and (likely) murder 84 year old disabled women at 2am. I would bet that the vast majority of unpaid ones are in the database, because this isn't where one starts with crime.

JMO.