AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[VTHOMM]

I think they broke in the back door and removed her through the front door because of her mobility problems.

OK, newbie here, so please be kind....I have been reading these posts for days now, and would like to provide my thoughts, clearly just my opinion, but what makes sense to me. I try to look at things justas they appear, and not to read more into anything than what is there. I don’t see this as a well planned and executed event by experienced kidnappers, but more of a bungled burglary by some doper looking for items easy to turn into cash/more drugs.

Here is how I see it going down. While on the Uber ride to AG’s, NG mentions that her daughter is a celebrity and that she is going to her other daughters for dinner and game night. Old people like to talk. The Uber driver mentions this to her shady boyfriend or other shady friend who decides that this is the perfect opportunity to score at NGs house. This person or persons goes to NG’s and breaks in through the back door. While he/they are there, NG gets dropped off and enters the house through the garage. The person hides, while NG goes to her bedroom and readies for bed (takes out hearing aids, etc.). One way or another, his presence is discovered and something horrible happens, maybe a tussle, maybe worse, there are sick (and high) people out there. She dies as a result. Anyways, he panicks and leaves. After thinking about it more, he decides he may have left DNA in the house or on NG, maybe under fingernails, etc. He cobbles together the outfit we see in the video along with some supplies he thinks he needs to clean the scene and returns to the house to take care of things. We see him approach the walk from the direction of the garage/main drive.. His car could be parked in front of the garage where clearly the Nest camera cannot see. He could have unlocked the front door when he was previously in the house, not uncommon for burglars to leave doors/means of escape open while they work. He is unconcerned about an alarm, as he has already been there. Another possiblity is that he brought help with him when he returned and that he had gone in the back way and unlocked the front door for the other man we see in the video. A 150 lb body is very difficult to handle, and the guy in the video is not a large muscular guy. Either way, the plan was to take NG out the front door to a waiting car in the circular drive. Per AB’s report, both Nest cameras at the house were smashed. This would cause an immediate halt to all recording, however,it would also stop the overwriting that would normally take place without a subscription. Thus any video captured earlier would have been overwritten by then, just leaving what we have seen. He/they go in and spend 40 minutes or so cleaning up anything that could possibly have DNA on it, find and smash the other Nest camera, etc. then decide to take her out the front door to the car which has by now been repositioned in the circular drive, right at the end of the walk. NG is carried in some manner out of the door and down the walk to the car, only dripping blood due to gravity and driven away for hiding. The ransom notes are probably all hoaxes, but could also have been an afterthought a couple days later when all the publicity broke.

It is such a shame that NG did not have a professional security system in place, as well as a life alert system. A monitored, or at least a cloud based video system in addition to a monitored home burglar alarm most likely could have prevented this. A lift alert button may have also been invaluable. Even many smart watches can alert others when a fall occurs or irregular heart beats happen if set up to do so. In this world, please protect yourselves, parents and children.

All of the above is just my opinion, looking forward to hearing your thoughts on it. There is so much we don’t know that the possibilities are still wide open.

I understand why people may believe this is a burgarly gone wrong, and it very well could be, but why put yourself out there even more by taking her - whether alive or not? It's more risky, no? Afterall, s/he had face covered. I wonder the what if's a lot BUT I wonder had she had a Life Alert if it would have helped. I think two people were involved.

 

[Warwick7]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021965419243032869

 

[tlcya]

OK, newbie here, so please be kind....I have been reading these posts for days now, and would like to provide my thoughts, clearly just my opinion, but what makes sense to me. I try to look at things justas they appear, and not to read more into anything than what is there. I don’t see this as a well planned and executed event by experienced kidnappers, but more of a bungled burglary by some doper looking for items easy to turn into cash/more drugs.
SBM=tlcya

snipped for focus, great first post @LakeRat55 Welcome to Websleuths. Interesting theory, I too feel like this may have been an attempt to rob/burgle that went awry. But I am stymied as to why the cleanup to the point of removing a body or injured, bleeding homeowner.

 

[wibbleflea]

Anyone familiar with IT would know the data is recoverable until overwritten. If this was his thinking it indicates he is less familiar with how these are networked than many lay people, not more.

To be fair, it’s not common for data to be recovered from the cloud for cloud-only cameras without subscriptions.

If he knew that NG didn’t pay the subscription for cloud storage, he’d have assumed that, by the following day, the footage would be gone. Same thing if he assumed that the camera was recording to internal storage – taking the camera would make the footage inaccessible.

He turned out to be wrong, obviously, but I think the recovery of the cloud data surprised more than a few people.

 

[txsleuth70]

Discussion has been there previously. He is using a Mexican gun carry.

No. Mexican gun carry would be INSIDE his pants.

 

[unresolvedmystery]

I am NOT pointing the finger at AC and SIL's child but for those who believe they may have been involved...

1. How did the child not hear the arguing and maybe assault?
2. Wouldn't it have been a very good chance they would have maybe seen the crime scene(if it took place at their house)?
3. Maybe heard one or both parents leave the house around the time of the abduction?
4. Or was the child drugged too?

I'm having a hard time believing it's family. I guess just hope on my part.

Jmo

Never heard of a murder case where children were present and kept quiet? Have a Google, lots of them out there.

 

[SaraSmile]

One of the first things I thought of was rain on the way? But it doesn't look like they are expecting rain until tomorrow

Maybe using luminal to see if/where there is spit from intruder. ( they already tested all the blood).
Swabbing for DNA, in case trace amounts are found( even though perp was covered, his own DNA could have transferred to outside of gear when putting on gear.)
Swabbing doorway, front entryway, other perps carried NG out, maybe they touched something.
jMO

 

[txsleuth70]

I am NOT pointing the finger at AC and SIL's child but for those who believe they may have been involved...

1. How did the child not hear the arguing and maybe assault?
2. Wouldn't it have been a very good chance they would have maybe seen the crime scene(if it took place at their house)?
3. Maybe heard one or both parents leave the house around the time of the abduction?
4. Or was the child drugged too?

I'm having a hard time believing it's family. I guess just hope on my part.

Jmo

Who's to say the child was even there? You're assuming unknown information JMO

 

[Wsimm]

Has anyone here compared the single photo of suspect without the backpack and holster to the videos and still of them wearing both? The shoes look a bit different. It almost seems like there’s a black strip on the shoes of the suspect without the backpack that I don’t seem to notice on the suspect that actually walks up to the door.

 

[captdj]

Maybe perp had info the camera subscription was off, but didn't account for the fact that someone could still watch the live feed if they got an alert. Is there anything on the camera that indicates it is active? A red light? A shutter movement? Something that would alert the perp that the camera is, indeed, on?

Yes or my nest google cameras do. I have the newer version ones ..a few years ago my older nest cameras wasn't being supported anymore from google unless I changed to ADT. My alarm system is monitored by another company ..So I got the newer ones from Google and kept my subscription cause I use 24/7 video cameras and some of my other cameras only do event recording . I'm not an expert but have used several different cameras.

 

[Justice101]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021961947860938927

I knew it!

DNA swabs from the exact places on the floor in the video where the masked assailant has stood.

 

[KivaloNyomozo’]

A white tent is erected at Nancy’s home.

 

[shonyakay]

These new revelations are moving further and further away from family involvement. IMO.

 

[Starkville]

Nancy Guthrie case: Could retail records help identify man in videos? Experts say 'the specific backpack style…’

The photos and videos released by the FBI in the Nancy Guthrie case could reveal a trove of information that investigators can use to identify the subject.

www.hindustantimes.com

"The specific backpack style, clothing brands, shoe type, even the ski mask pattern – all of these are traceable through retail purchases, particularly if bought locally," Dr. Gregory Vecchi, retired supervisory Special Agent and Chief of the FBI Behavioral Science Unit, told Fox News Digital. "The FBI will be canvassing sporting goods stores, tactical supply outlets and online purchase records."

It’s also possible that these items were purchased secondhand/at a thrift. At most thrift shops with computerized checkout systems, the price tags scanned only indicate a general category, (Men’s shoes, Women’s blouse, etc.) At the smaller thrift stores, it’s even less “official”, IME.

If a person wanted to muddy the waters, this would be the way to go, along with paying cash. JMO. MOO.

 

[Justice101]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021965419243032869

Swabbing the floor for DNA in the exact sample places where the perpetrator was seen walking on in the video!

 

[SMK777]

Re Drugs Agreed, I thought about the drug angle. Just an idea I had.

Let’s say that NG had a special work crew for a week or so, maybe the roof, it was done recently. (Not a regular like the gardener, pool person etc. )

Ok, so one day a worker is getting something out of his car trunk, lid open, and the worker has 4-6 bricks of cocaine in there, stacked nicely, mostly hidden, but sides still slightly visible. Ready for his night shift job! Haha

So right when he has the lid open, NG walks by, she talks with the worker briefly, and he sees NG looking at the sides of the bricks. NG, having seen on the news about border crossings, lots of cocaine and other drugs coming across, she recognized the bricks as possible drugs.

She asked the worker,” hey, what’s that, it looks like packaged drugs?” He said, realizing she saw the bricks, “Oh, that’s a special plaster I’m using that on another job. Not to worry, haha. It’s very beautiful, kind of a rustic adobe look. “

He lies , closes the trunk, She seems to be relieved and believed his explanation.

So he got home from work, talked to a fellow drug associate about the unintentional reveal of the drugs. Is it ok, or what to do? Is it possible she will turn him in to police?

The worker and associate think it’s too big a risk, to have NG potentially turning them in!
It would endanger, not only this man, but also other drug associates. Land them in prison, or even killed.

They hatch the plan to take her, kill her, drop in a brushy desert area, 10 miles out of town.
That’s it! A simple old school plan, get rid of possible drug snitch.

(The ransom people are all opportunist only, they jumped on 2 days later, no proof of life. Etc)

Just an idea!

jMO

People have definitely been killed for seeing something criminal that they shouldn't have seen.

In the beginning of this case I had similar thoughts about someone who worked for NG, perhaps being discovered stealing or defrauding in some way by her, and having killed her in a panic to silence her-- the rest being coverup.

 

[Assassino]

One of the things I've wondered about the gun is could he have holstered it where he did to ensure that Nancy saw it and would immediately be compliant? The holster sitting there in the front rather than on the side is more conspicuous. So he wouldn't have to use one of his hands to point the gun at her and would have two hands free to subdue and control her and get her into a vehicle. And also have two free hands to do whatever else he needed to do. She sees him, immediately sees the holster, and becomes fearful.

I also wonder if the gun may have possibly been fake. If you have a fake gun and don't want to remove it because you're worried it will give it away, you would holster it in a very obvious place so the person you're after immediately sees it and gets the message. Just spit balling and throwing possibilities out there.

 

[nycpizzaparty]

I knew it!

DNA swabs from the exact places on the floor in the video where the masked assailant has stood.

All this time later? If that's the case, I do not understanding the pace of this investigation. They had the video a few days ago. LE would've figured out all the things we were discussing. Why would anyone wait several days to get potential evidence?

 

[Fromeaster]

Nancy's house now.

 

[Skigh]

Maybe using luminal to see if/where there is spit from intruder. ( they already tested all the blood).
Swabbing for DNA, in case trace amounts are found( even though perp was covered, his own DNA could have transferred to outside of gear when putting on gear.)
Swabbing doorway, front entryway, other perps carried NG out, maybe they touched something.
jMO

Surely this should have been done on day 1.