AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[hotchilli]

Hello folks...new here. I used to post on the EARONS forum. Got away from this fascinating stuff for a while but...can't stay away.
Regarding Nancy Guthrie...

My instinctive thoughts are:
1. Not a bungled burglary.
2. Not a ransom situation
3. Not a revenge on the family or the celebrity daughter.

This is, I believe, was a case of an offender with severe psychosexual issues, whose preferred victim(s) is an elderly woman. Nancy led a pretty open life. She was easy to find and surveil. She was incredibly vulnerable.

So on a night of a full moon, he struck. More accurately, he and his submissive sidekick (and likely) sometime sexual partner struck. (Partner probably a very dependent submissive male.)

The time within the house was the dominant partner doing his thing. Once completed...they could not leave a human with his DNA. So they exited with her. And no, Nancy is not with us.

Such offenders are not unknown...there was a guy in Philly a few years ago who selected elderly females.k
I'm sorry to write these things-but they make sense to me and explain a lot of why nothing has turned up.

I hope I'm wrong. But I "knew" long before EAR was arrested that he was a cop, and then, a former cop. Based to a great extent on his ammunition selection.

I "knew" in 2004 that BTK was a local code enforcement officer. It just made sense to me.

Has this subject done this or something similar before? Almost certainly. What we know of the crime shows too much complexity and preparation for a first timer.

Will he (they) be caught? Probably. Eventually.

I would suggest that the bodies of any young men in Arizona who suffered a violent death in the near future be examined as a possible reference point to this crime. Tracing their network of acquaintances may lead to the dominant. Why do I say this? Partners, even dependent/submissive ones get antsy. And the dominant one would take care of business.

I hope I am wrong.

God bless her family and all who loved her...

There was a case in the UK where TV presenter Holly Willoughby was targeted in a kidnap and murder plot, but the guy was arrested before he could carry it out - she was the presenter of This Morning a day time show. She's a similar level of celebrity as SG so this was major news.

Story here.

Holly Willoughby: Gavin Plumb guilty in kidnap and murder plot

Gavin Plumb created a tool kit for sexual violence against the TV star to fulfil an "ultimate fantasy".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[diggndeeperstill]

Just in case you didn't listen to this podcast. Cece Moore w/ Parabon is Ashleigh's guest and really explains the blood evidence and states that Nanos made a great choice in the lab because the lab can do all types of analysis, unlike the FBI's lab. Really important listen. She states the first person to make a statement against his choice owned a competing lab.

Also, Ashleigh states that a source told her the blood pattern outside was the same inside.

 

[Marzipan]

This theory was briefly touched on earlier but not talked about much. I'm thinking more that the criminals found the wrong house, that this was a robbery attempt related to the gem show. The Tucson gem show is HUGE, draws from all over the U.S. It is from mid-January through mid-February. The dates/timing is right.

I lived in Tucson for a while, have been there. It is open to the public, part is by invitation, part is in buildings, part is under tents. Anyway, the gem neighbor would have had real cash, would have had a home safe, a place to store valuables.

How on earth would they do all the planning for a gem and cash heist, getting to know the address and property, and get the wrong house?
I do not believe this happened, nor SA, nor any of these theories. They abducted Nancy Guthrie as they planned to do, whether for ransom or for murder for another reason.
The only possibility I see for this is if NG and gem guy were close and they believed he trusted her to keep something in her safe for him (if we are sure she had a safe).
I haven’t been following much since there’s been so much excessive criticism about the sheriff (I scroll and roll until I finally just stop bothering to come here at all). So I may have missed it and have to ask: What happened with the white van? Was it identified as a lock and safe company that had good reason to be there or is it of interest? Would appreciate any update about that.

 

[Laura Avery]

At least shes on Namus..I missed this The National Missing and Unidentified Persons System (NamUs)

 

[GatorFL]

Yes. Someone asked if sexual assault would leave DNA off body. Well it likely would. But his backpack appears to contain tarps.
One goes under the victim.

This was so preventable. For example, she was just one loved German shepherd away from safety…

Not a chance somebody in her physical state could handle a German Shepherd. JMO

 

[Trino]

I don’t typically follow cases closely, so perhaps I’m just clueless. Aren’t those kinds of burglaries typically in the daytime? Why would they come equipped heavily for someone to be at home?

No idea why, but the question as to why they would they go after NG has not been answered either.

 

[Trino]

How on earth would they do all the planning for a gem and cash heist, getting to know the address and property, and get the wrong house?
I do not believe this happened, nor SA, nor any of these theories. They abducted Nancy Guthrie as they planned to do, whether for ransom or for murder for another reason.
The only possibility I see for this is if NG and gem guy were close and they believed he trusted her to keep something in her safe for him (if we are sure she had a safe).
I haven’t been following much since there’s been so much excessive criticism about the sheriff (I scroll and roll until I finally just stop bothering to come here at all). So I may have missed it and have to ask: What happened with the white van? Was it identified as a lock and safe company that had good reason to be there or is it of interest? Would appreciate any update about that.

A fresh look at this theory? The Gem Show has IMO always had "an element." This show brings in 65,000 outsiders. Here's a quote and source:

"On February 16, 2026, vendors at the Tucson Gem and Mineral Show reported the theft of a prized “native gold” specimen from the Harvard collection, housed in a Riker mount box. Security video captured a person in white attire swiftly removing it at 4:02 PM, with screenshots circulating widely on social media. Observers noted striking similarities to Guthrie’s intruder: flat nose profile, facial hair, shoe style, and average build, despite the different clothing." Source: mebaneenterprise.com Feb 16, 2026.

And from a poster: "I went to the gem show last week; lots of very expensive jewels being sold but also quite a few shady looking ‘shoppers’ there. Nancy’s house is not easy to get to; dark roads winding thru the hills so maybe it was the wrong house."

 

[Napoli]

Brian Entin’s latest will make @Napoli very happy.

See! I think like an FBI profiler! I get NO RESPECT! lol Thanks for posting. My unhinged, lovesick, delusional stalker is a viable theory! So THERE! lol JMO

 

[maskedwoman]

From interview aired on NBC Saturday 2/21:

Investigators press ahead nearly three weeks on from Nancy Guthrie's disappearance

Asked about his message to Guthrie's family, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said: "We're not quitting."

www.nbcnews.com

I found something interesting: apparently separating DNA is not new but there are many variables that can complicate it. This AI summary was very helpful to me. It becomes more difficult with more than 2 contributors, small amounts of DNA, degraded DNA, and equal amounts of DNA contributed by multiple people. Now I'm concerned the decision to send the samples to FL could end up making the case go cold.

Google Search

 

[cherryleaf]

In this news report they say LE were acting on a tip. You can see LE open the back of the RR as they raise the tarps.

I think they were concerned at what they may find and did not want the public to see.

Does anyone here know if LE still has the RR in their possession?

This article was posted yesterday and after reading it, it sounds like it is believed to still be in possession.

Nancy Guthrie update: Ex-FBI agent reveals "number one" lead in search

Former FBI agent Jennifer Coffindaffer told Newsweek that a Range Rover towed by authorities could provide key evidence.

www.newsweek.com

SNIPPED
-Coffindaffer noted that vehicle does not appear to have been released by authorities.

She said: “As far as we know, it has not been released yet. It was treated as evidence judging by the tarp. And so I think is the most viable lead right now.”-

 

[maskedwoman]

Just interesting in the case coinsides with the Tucson Gem Show. Why this date to go after NG? Why not earlier? Later?

I think it's important to note that the Gem Show being with the gem, mineral and fossil showcases starting 1/23. The main show was only from 2/12-2/15. I don't recall what tie the neighbor has to the gem show but unless this person nearby was actually exhibiting high value pieces at the show, it doesn't make sense to rob them. And I can't imagine that someone in that business, handling expensive pieces would need to stow them with a neighbor. These should be professionals who have their own security arrangements. Safe deposit boxes, their own safes, etc. IMO

 

[Van Helsing]

If you watched BE's interview with CeCe Moore, she had stated that she's worked with the lab in Florida and has confidence the lab can get the job done and that it is a good lab. In most if not all investigative genetic genealogy cases, that have been solved---its been by a private lab and not the FBI lab.

So, we should not knock the expertise of the FL lab, because in my opinion, it appears they may have 2 male DNA profiles they are trying to separate.

To understand this better, here is an article which does a good job explaining it. While the whole article is a good one to read, if you scroll all the way to bottom it explains forensic significance.

Y chromosome Definition and Examples - Biology Online Dictionary

The Y chromosome is one of the 2 human sex chromosomes involved in the determination of biologically male sex and manifestation of the male attributes. Learn more and take the quiz!

www.biologyonline.com

Seems like the biggest issue with using the FL lab was the time delays. It seems like there was more emphasis on solving the crime than on saving NG.

 

[maskedwoman]

I don't see how LE could stop a search on public land. (imo/jmo)

In Arizona, and perhaps other places, people can camp on BLM land.

I feel kind of dumb about this, but how do you tell when land is public land? In my state, there is alot of empty, unmarked land that is actually owned by someone. Thanks!

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I feel kind of dumb about this, but how do you tell when land is public land? In my state, there is alot of empty, unmarked land that is actually owned by someone. Thanks!

Look at a map. Not to be flippant. public lands are state parks, US parks, city parks and some BLM lands. (Not all parks are publicly owned though. Some are private.) There is very little public land in comparison to privately owned. You can also look at county tax assessor maps which show who owns all the parcels. All that desert out there? Privately owned.

 

[submarine7]

Hello folks...new here. I used to post on the EARONS forum. Got away from this fascinating stuff for a while but...can't stay away.
Regarding Nancy Guthrie...

My instinctive thoughts are:
1. Not a bungled burglary.
2. Not a ransom situation
3. Not a revenge on the family or the celebrity daughter.

This is, I believe, was a case of an offender with severe psychosexual issues, whose preferred victim(s) is an elderly woman. Nancy led a pretty open life. She was easy to find and surveil. She was incredibly vulnerable.

So on a night of a full moon, he struck. More accurately, he and his submissive sidekick (and likely) sometime sexual partner struck. (Partner probably a very dependent submissive male.)

The time within the house was the dominant partner doing his thing. Once completed...they could not leave a human with his DNA. So they exited with her. And no, Nancy is not with us.

Such offenders are not unknown...there was a guy in Philly a few years ago who selected elderly females.

I'm sorry to write these things-but they make sense to me and explain a lot of why nothing has turned up.

I hope I'm wrong. But I "knew" long before EAR was arrested that he was a cop, and then, a former cop. Based to a great extent on his ammunition selection.

I "knew" in 2004 that BTK was a local code enforcement officer. It just made sense to me.

Has this subject done this or something similar before? Almost certainly. What we know of the crime shows too much complexity and preparation for a first timer.

Will he (they) be caught? Probably. Eventually.

I would suggest that the bodies of any young men in Arizona who suffered a violent death in the near future be examined as a possible reference point to this crime. Tracing their network of acquaintances may lead to the dominant. Why do I say this? Partners, even dependent/submissive ones get antsy. And the dominant one would take care of business.

I hope I am wrong.

God bless her family and all who loved her...

There was an unidentified dead man's body found on February 1, 2026. Very little information. There was another one found a few days later.

 

[GatorFL]

I found something interesting: apparently separating DNA is not new but there are many variables that can complicate it. This AI summary was very helpful to me. It becomes more difficult with more than 2 contributors, small amounts of DNA, degraded DNA, and equal amounts of DNA contributed by multiple people. Now I'm concerned the decision to send the samples to FL could end up making the case go cold.

Google Search

Suggest you watch this video:

 

[Trino]

No idea why, but the question as to why they would they go after NG has not been answered either.

January 14, 2004 Charles "Chuck" Simmons, one of Tucson's most respected gem dealers, disappeared from Tucson. His truck was found abandoned in a parking lot near downtown Tucson. Never found. Note the day and month date. Gem show time.

 

[maskedwoman]

I’m not sure there’s enough evidence for proper searches at this point.

I love Tim and the work he does is amazing, but I’m not sure now’s the time for that unfortunately. moo

I agree about Tim but the idea of those beautiful horses picking their way through all the cactus makes me cringe. I certainly hope that doesn't become necessary.

 

[Napoli]

The guy on camera does not show the sophistication needed to disguise an IP address and carefully craft multiple ransom letters. He can't even cover the camera with his hand properly. I mean seriously who uses the edge of their palm to block a lens.
Whomever he is, he will be caught due to stupidity. Wherever it's a mistake he made during the crime or after. I don't believe this is a mastermind that LE is dealing with.

Really? Might I remind you that Thomas Crooks, the alleged shooter of DJT at Butler Pennsylvania had all manner of encrypted data on his phone? In Congressional hearings the FBI said they were unable to decipher the codes needed to get into his phone. Getting caught doesnt = stupidity. It equals imperfect humanity. We are all flawed. The "edge of his palm" was gloved..possibly double gloved. He has managed to evade the LE and FBI thus far. He was quite methodical, detail oriented, almost OCD in his disguise and his attention to detail right down to a bite light that kept his hands free. He might not have a genuis IQ but that is not the only way intellignece is measured. I think he has done a masterful job of alluding capture, thus far. It's my stalker. No doubt in my mind. He has thought this through for a very long time. His obsession with SG helped him perfect his craft. JMO MOO

 

[SaraSmile]

It could be strategy to make the perp(s) relax and start making some mistakes.

Re the DNA from the house mixed sample, since this is our best hope RN, IMO. I hope the FL lab can separate. Maybe since there is extra DNA, send to FBI lab, or Othram in TX.

I understand that LE want the search done by the pros, but IF it was my family and we are at the 3 week mark - then I'd be thankful any organized volunteer group wanted to donate their time to find my loved one and I just wonder how much searching the Sheriff's office has done. IF I remember correctly they called off searching early on and I haven't seen any searches going on (of course, that does NOT mean searches are not taking place.) IF they were taking place you'd think the Sheriff's office would come out and say we are searching high and low and everywhere in-between for Nancy.

**No, I don't think random people should be out searching for Nancy, but if it is a real organized volunteer group I'd certainly work quickly with them to get the red tape completed so they can search.

I've been thinking it was strange that we aren't seeing searches this entire time. So odd.

Set aside LE, set aside the Sheriff, set aside the FBI - this is about Nancy.....Are they doing all they can to find her? Where is Nancy? (These are not real questions. These are questions I ponder while we wait for Nancy to be found!)

JMO >

I understand the Sheriff being careful about the public offering to help, search. Maybe a hazard for many perspective volunteers because of brush, cacti, sharp plants.

My first point, They almost need searchers to be trained like those groups that clear hiking and horse trails. They could take a small chain saw to clear under thick brush, if not good visibility.

The other point, I’m not sure if the desert plants can be disturbed. I remember a reporter mentioning( sorry, no link RN, so JMO), even though the desert plants look very random, and not like a real landscape plan, they may be protected. Dark sky protected, desert plants protected.
Just guessing, same crowd. Keep AZ wild.

I would think volunteers could safely drive all the nearby country roads, turn offs, trailheads, remote dump sites, etc, to get more eyes on the search. It’s now been 3 weeks, plus it rained, so some tracks, if ever visible, may be less noticeable.

I wish I was in AZ, I would search mainly driving around, looking for potential disturbances near country roads.

JMO

I understand that LE want the search done by the pros, but IF it was my family and we are at the 3 week mark - then I'd be thankful any organized volunteer group wanted to donate their time to find my loved one and I just wonder how much searching the Sheriff's office has done. IF I remember correctly they called off searching early on and I haven't seen any searches going on (of course, that does NOT mean searches are not taking place.) IF they were taking place you'd think the Sheriff's office would come out and say we are searching high and low and everywhere in-between for Nancy.

**No, I don't think random people should be out searching for Nancy, but if it is a real organized volunteer group I'd certainly work quickly with them to get the red tape completed so they can search.

I've been thinking it was strange that we aren't seeing searches this entire time. So odd.

Set aside LE, set aside the Sheriff, set aside the FBI - this is about Nancy.....Are they doing all they can to find her? Where is Nancy? (These are not real questions. These are questions I ponder while we wait for Nancy to be found!)

JMO >