Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Katrinepa]

Yeah, I think there's something about the blood on the porch that isn't quite right. There may be blood inside, but I don't see any on the front threshold, although arguably it's hard to see. I don't see any large drops at all closer that the spattery area. It seems even weirder seeing it from above.

Some time back, experts have said it's not 'splatter' but drops, as in a nosebleed for example. No clue what the difference would mean, as when I have a gusher nosebleed, there are drops, but also plenty of tiny spray/splatter. Ugh.

 

[SMK777]

 

[Moonchime]

I haven't the slightest idea. I suppose the condition of the inside of the house and the status of the front door and screen door should help validate or disprove this theory.

I do feel like a straight line walk from the front door to a car would show a different blood pattern. Likewise, if Nancy were over the suspect's shoulder or even being carried out some other way, I imagine we'd still see a straight-ish trail of blood. I think the blood tells a slightly more complicated story than "out the door to the car." But I haven't a clue what it is. What're your thoughts?

The blood drops seem suspicious to me because to me it looks like the perp was sending a message to everyone. This entire case is seriously baffling. The porch perp looked as if Central Casting sent him out. I've never followed a case such as this.

 

[warp3dwing]

Some time back, experts have said it's not 'splatter' but drops, as in a nosebleed for example. No clue what the difference would mean, as when I have a gusher nosebleed, there are drops, but also plenty of tiny spray/splatter. Ugh.

I agree with them. That's why I said spatter, not splatter.

 

[warp3dwing]

I believe it was OldCop who theorized a while back something like a turn and a pause while exiting the door. Like if you were making sure the door shut behind you, though that’s not the only possibility. JMO

Yes, I remember that. The fireman carry theory, which is quite good. I wonder how long it would take for enough blood to pool in that one spot to where subsequent drops would splash the surrounding area?

 

[arielilane]

The @FBI has experts that can examine this and try to determine the make and model of this vehicle. Then, the question is: it the vehicle connected to the crime? #NancyGuthrie Tips: 1-800-CALL-FBI

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027165486622908696

 

[TIGER0822]

Today I read about another (botched) home invasion extortion for bitcoin. My fear is this crime (ransom) increases the incidences of those type of demands. I hope there are ways the FBI is able to track down the perps in this case to serve as a warning to others that might copy cat ransom/extortion as well.

Thread 'OR- Fake postal worker charged in violent home invasion and extortion of cryptocurrency, 26 Feb 2026'
OR- Fake postal worker charged in violent home invasion and extortion of cryptocurrency, 26 Feb 2026

This one was not botched sadly.

 

[Cassie P]

I haven't the slightest idea. I suppose the condition of the inside of the house and the status of the front door and screen door should help validate or disprove this theory.

I do feel like a straight line walk from the front door to a car would show a different blood pattern. Likewise, if Nancy were over the suspect's shoulder or even being carried out some other way, I imagine we'd still see a straight-ish trail of blood. I think the blood tells a slightly more complicated story than "out the door to the car." But I haven't a clue what it is. What're your thoughts?

IDK I am trying to visualize a new theory based on your blood spatter analysis.
Two separate blood trails, NG comes onto the porch and exits the porch via the pavement. Does not go out the front door. So we have to think about how did she get to the pavement.

Could what you see be explained by NG coming out the front door, falling backwards or struggling back to the house. Then being dragged or carried forward again? So it was not a straight line, but back and forth?

Some times as data comes in we have to rethink things. The data tells the story. We cannot make the data fit the story. So I want to think about what you are saying and what others say about it.

 

[SlimPickens]

I think most of us assumed that the vehicle going into the closed garage the other day was a family member or VIP like the DA, etc, but it occurred to me that it could also be a witness. Or if it was one of the family members the other day, it doesn't necessarily mean that in the future a witness, POI, or suspect wouldn't be brought to the home in the exact same way.

Additionally, we shouldn't assume that LE shut down parking and media access because the case is going cold without considering the opposite of that - that as the case is tightening and evidence is synthesized that any external distractions and/or potential contaminations/leaks of scene and/or evidence hurt the end work product.

JMO.

 

[Cassie P]

I believe it was OldCop who theorized a while back something like a turn and a pause while exiting the door. Like if you were making sure the door shut behind you, though that’s not the only possibility. JMO

So another person here is noticing the blood trail is not a straight line? So perps could have stopped, turned around checked the door, or forgot something in the house, or dropped something, etc. ??

 

[Friday Fan]

Bring in the clowns. Carnival atmosphere will be perpetuated as this is prolonged...for awhile at least. One practical point. This is an unoccupied dwelling. VERY difficult to get home owners insurance. Thus, another reason to beef up the security cameras, perhaps erect a privacy fence etc. Generally, the insurance companies don't want to insure these places. Add in a location that will draw gawkers, souvenir hunters, selfie takers, mezzo sopranos (lol) and you have risk for all kinds of liability. Unoccupied primary dwellings are a red flag for most insurers. That contingent of suits the other day at the house could have very well had an insurance representative there also, to assess for damage done during the incident as well as future risk. risk. JMO

Was thinking about this late last night. Figured they had to go through NG's family and depending on any advanced directives that Nancy had previously filed, it could have required legal action for NG's family to take control of her residence, ( power of attorney, put up no-trespassing signs and be the party that could enforce a no-trespassing order etc) since probate would likely need to determine if NG was legally incapacitated or something of that order....(That she likely had not left of her own free will and wasn't likely to return in the near future)

 

[Shanz]

So another person here is noticing the blood trail is not a straight line? So perps could have stopped, turned around checked the door, or forgot something in the house, or dropped something, etc. ??

But amazingly, in the dark, did not step on any of the drops???

 

[Walela]

I haven't the slightest idea. I suppose the condition of the inside of the house and the status of the front door and screen door should help validate or disprove this theory.

I do feel like a straight line walk from the front door to a car would show a different blood pattern. Likewise, if Nancy were over the suspect's shoulder or even being carried out some other way, I imagine we'd still see a straight-ish trail of blood. I think the blood tells a slightly more complicated story than "out the door to the car." But I haven't a clue what it is. What're your thoughts?

Maybe she bled on the perp shirt or maybe there was a washcloth or tea towel that staunched the blood so there wouldn't be a trail leading off to whatever conveyance was used.
moo

 

[Friday Fan]

I think most of us assumed that the vehicle going into the closed garage the other day was a family member or VIP like the DA, etc, but it occurred to me that it could also be a witness. Or if it was one of the family members the other day, it doesn't necessarily mean that in the future a witness, POI, or suspect wouldn't be brought to the home in the exact same way.

Additionally, we shouldn't assume that LE shut down parking and media access because the case is going cold without considering the opposite of that - that as the case is tightening and evidence is synthesized that any external distractions and/or potential contaminations/leaks of scene and/or evidence hurt the end work product.

JMO.

LE Official statement is that all the traffic was a safety issue and that the roads were not designed for this much traffic. Children were having trouble getting off school buses etc. People can still park their vehicles and walk to the location.


Nothing prevents journalists from those outlets and others, as well as streamers broadcasting from their phones, from walking the street in front of the home. TV reporters from local and national outlets often fed updates to their respective platforms while standing there.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2026/02/26/parking-restrictions-enacted-around-nancy-guthries-home/88869790007/

 

[TIGER0822]

Man who repeatedly drove by NG house arrested on DUI.
Reportedly not related to the investigation.

Man arrested outside Nancy Guthrie home named in major police update - NewsBreak

The Pima County Sheriff's Department issued an update regarding a 34-year-old man who was arrested in front of Nancy Guthrie's Tucson, Arizona, home on Feb

share.newsbreak.com

 

[Rumination1]

Maybe she bled on the perp shirt or maybe there was a washcloth or tea towel that staunched the blood so there wouldn't be a trail leading off to whatever conveyance was used.
moo

Yeah perhaps at some point they pulled out a cloth to stop the flow of blood.
I wonder what leads they are following about where Nancy may have been held . Surely this person didn’t use their own home . Would it be in an abandoned home or in an air bnb or such ?

This kidnapping if unintended is extremely lucky and if pre planned extremely well planned. How long will the family have to wait for answers?

 

[Napoli]

Was thinking about this late last night. Figured they had to go through NG's family and depending on any advanced directives that Nancy had previously filed, it could have required legal action for NG's family to take control of her residence, ( power of attorney, put up no-trespassing signs and be the party that could enforce a no-trespassing order etc) since probate would likely need to determine if NG was legally incapacitated or something of that order....(That she likely had not left of her own free will and wasn't likely to return in the near future)

When my Mom died, I was in charge (only child) I needed to clean out her lovely home etc etc. Anyway, I was told by the insurance company when I went to renew her policy in my name as executrix as I was winding up probate, that It was going to be DOUBLE the premium because it was unoccupied. Honestly, they didt want to even insure me. But, I was in and out for several months, so sort of occupied. Same thing with my father in laws death. Just settling a regular estate is bad enough. With NG it's truly Limbo. My husband said in law school the worst course was wills, probate and estates. He said it was the make or break for many. This entire case regarding missing NG and the ins and outs of the estate would be a fabulous essay question on the bar exam. JMO

 

[Cassie P]

But amazingly, in the dark, did not step on any of the drops???

Yes I wish we could see it all up close in a video reenactment.

 

[stmichael]

Thank you for giving us more interesting context!

I think everyone is baffled that (it seems like) LE has majorly struggled with gaining footage of the vehicle and isn't ultra certain about the exact vehicle/its path. And so the explanation they've put forward is "It's way too dark! No cameras would pick him up!" And it's like ???? I was baffled by that but I'm not from Tucson, so I didn't know how true it was, but in my experience cameras can still pick up vehicles even when it's dark. The houses aren't *that* far back from the road in NG's neighborhood.

Even if the footage from yesterday wasn't the kidnapper's vehicle, it does at least show that cameras *are* able to pick up cars passing late at night in the general neighborhood, and you can make out the general size and potential models/colors of the cars passing.

I just hope people keep submitting footage because this person wasn't a ghost, they had to get to (and leave) her house somehow.

I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance (see NG driveway with car parked in broad daylight, can't tell the make/model and that's at shorter distance). Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS

 

[kevin1000]

My thinking is that Nancys bedroom is nearer the front door than the back exit? Which also makes me think, if there was a vehicle involved why not park it near the back exit/ garage side ? Less chances of being seen from the road maybe? IMO the choice of exit is directly linked to Nancys mobility during the event.

Along this line of thinking why didn't this guy just load NG into her own car shielded from view inside her garage? Use her car and abandon it later.