Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Pharmasgirl]

In some past crimes, a person was interviewed, “ cleared” early on. Then much later, sometimes years later, with DNA advances, cold case, going through evidence again, determined this person was the suspect all along! Arrested. JMO

So many things have been wishy-washy & walked back so (imo) it might give those needing the 'out of the woods' and breather for the immediate (only they know who they are). Which can be taken back at any time.

 

[nycpizzaparty]

I'm currently landing on 3 and 4. MOO

I can't decide on leaving a body at the scene.

On one hand, it's probably true that there is a risk of leaving one's DNA and evidence on the body. But the guy we saw on the camera (backpack boy) looked to me completely covered with no exposed skin or hair. If he hurt NG it would likely be her DNA on him I think.

But taking the body away is a whole other thing - moving it, putting it in a vehicle, disposing of it. And I'd venture to say not the typical thing to do.

 

[squareandrabbet]

Unintended Outcome with an Elderly Medically-compromised victim

Now in the commission of a crime where he trying to coerce a soft target to give up location of cash, accounts, etc. a lot could go south. Most simply an elderly lady with a pacemaker and high blood pressure on meds, could be very stressed and have a cardiac event that he did not count on. Right there, that's it. A reasonable outcome. Even roughing up someone on blood thinners bears a large risk. I don't think based on the Nest cam get up this was a sophisticated individual (though he may have experience). Once the mark is deceased then I can see the whole cliche panic "Oh man, I got to get rid of the body" scenario kick in.

Unfortunately I think your last paragraph is particularly true.

I mean, there are a lot of health related things that someone of age can hear about and theoretically be like "yeah, uh-huh, makes sense"; but if they have no personal experience in situations, it doesn't "really" sink in (and I'm speaking of myself wrapped up in here).

Kidnappers generally aren't senior citizens themselves; thus I can absolutely imagine a scenario where they never considered that it would be life-threateningly dangerous to kidnap someone medically compromised.

 

[SaraSmile]

Have seen a few cases like that.
Or a couple of months into the investigation, someone who'd been seen as unimportant and interviewed and cleared on day one, is given a second look, and this time there are big red flags.

Yes, I believe, in this case, after FBI have gone through some of the videos, they will get some good clues, identify the perpetrators. I hope within a month or two.
I hope it’s not like the Sheriff thought, that it could be a year to process evidence, lead to someone.
Local people must be afraid, even though the crime is thought to be targeted.
JMO

 

[warp3dwing]

IMO/IME reading about true crime, no, they're not technical or codified statements like points in the criminal code.

This would be more usually something to evaluate in terms of an individual speaker's internal lexicon, by which I mean "if we knew how this sheriff has spoken about these things in terms of other cases, depending upon these people being guilty or innocent".

I also don't think he is likely to indulge in BIG public facing lies, or that he would do it if it was counterproductive; but it depends upon whether or not the lies help a greater end, or is some type of ploy to get a response out of someone (like a suspect) watching the newscast.

I could see him/LE telling a smaller white lie here or there to serve the situation better.

Yep, everything’s fair game if it’s a ploy, but I don’t think he’s doing that here. No one wants to lie, especially on the record. Instead, things are conveniently vague or subtly omitted.

For example, saying “We don’t have a timestamp associated with that video,” is likely true. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what exact time the video was recorded through other means. Easy way to simultaneously avoid lying while only telling a partial truth.

 

[SlimPickens]

Brian Entin interviewed a retired PC LE last night who thought one possible motive was a burglary gone bad. Most burgulars break into houses during the day when nobody is home, as this LE on the video mentions. But, I wonder if it was a burglary where the criminal wanted NG at home to give him the code to the safe or information--at gun point--about what valuables she had and where they were. JMO

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027583992682451169

An entertaining guest for sure, particularly because he reminded me of us working out our own theories in real time and at the end of it being more confused than confident. Those straws can get pretty slippery in the hands sometimes.

I think the best thing about his appearance on the show was that it gave us insights into the kind of mindset local LEOs tend to have, and the small box within which they tend to operate. This is probably exactly the framework within which the sheriff was making his assumptions early on, and perhaps even still. This is not to say these folks are unintelligent and/or incapable - only that sometimes things can occur in their jurisdiction that are outside of their purview. The mistake they made early on was not considering that that might be the case.

JMO.

 

[K9Enzo]

The DNA recovered inside the Nancy Guthrie home is a mixture still being separated. Family members, landscapers, service workers all contributed to the sample. Genetic genealogy can't begin until that profile is clean enough to upload. With questions about lab facilities and sample condition, the timeline remains uncertain.

The glove found miles from the property? Processed through CODIS. No match to anyone in the system—and critically, no match to the DNA at the scene. Coffindaffer raises the possibility it shouldn't be treated as case evidence at all.

Meanwhile: lost Nest camera footage. A pacemaker search running for weeks. Tens of thousands of tips. No suspect identified.

But the pressure is building on whoever did this—and Robin Dreeke, former head of the FBI's Counterintelligence Behavioral Analysis Program, breaks down what that pressure is doing to them right now.

The reconnaissance windows suggest someone local. Someone who's been watching weeks of national coverage knowing genetic genealogy is processing, the FBI is showing photos at gun shops, and CeCe Moore told national TV the kidnapper should be "extremely concerned."

Nancy Guthrie Investigation: FBI Expert Says Glove May Not Be Case Evidence—DNA Mixture Complicates Genetic Genealogy

Weeks into the Nancy Guthrie investigation, the forensic picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest.

audioboom.com

Yes, and whoever did this should live in a non- stop unsettling fear, a constant paranoia, even from loved ones who might catch on, that at any minute you could literally be snatched right out of the life they have been living from agents who have agonized about, and finally pieced together, their vile depravity.

Then the nation can see the perp walk, and get a good look at the morally bankrupt that harmed an 84 year old innocent woman, who likely would have shown them compassion and kindness. IMO

 

[SMK777]

Yes, I believe, in this case, after FBI have gone through some of the videos, they will get some good clues, identify the perpetrators. I hope within a month or two.
I hope it’s not like the Sheriff thought, that it could be a year to process evidence, lead to someone.
Local people must be afraid, even though the crime is thought to be targeted.
JMO

And really, whether for hope for NG still being alive (although slim) or closure, time is of the essence.

 

[submarine7]

I agree that it could have been either scenario, but what I'm asking is does anyone think that the person(s) responsible has actually had a gain in anyway way from the crime?

Ransom wasn't paid as far as we know, so were they successful in swiping valuables or cash? Just thinking outloud.

Whatever was gained seems invisible. Somebody suggested that the crime could have been directed at PCSD and while I don't think that's what happened, there's no question their abilities and more have been criticized repeatedly, people have called for the Sheriff's removal, and that drama played out center stage with NG. If that was the motive, they were successful.

I can think of no reason to take Nancy unless somebody intended to collect ransom. They were unsuccessful. What exactly happened is anybody's guess. I think it is what it is. Nobody benefitted but I believe financial gain was the goal. I also believe she was chosen because of her daughter's wealth. I think this is a local who somehow came to know who NG is and the plan was shaped.

JMO

 

[maskedwoman]

This isn't necessarily a typical scenario

Yes, most burglaries occur during the day, but then he said that he has worked several burglaries in Tucson where the brazen burglars broke in at night with occupied residents and that it does happen in the area, so it's a possibility and that NG was a soft target. (he also said that neighborhood that he knows is so dark that "you could put your hand in front of your face and not see it." That's a damning quote as to the night conditions from someone who works that area, as he further expanded on the opportunistic set up of NG and her house.


Assumption of Target's Valuables- safe combo, bank accounts, access keys, etc.

Regarding the target; whether she had a safe, a bank account, a crypto wallet, valuable jewelry or cash stashed away, it's not so much as what she actually had, it's what the skell assumed or was under the impression that she had that would motivate him. Many times such erroneous assumptions underlay an incident with a room temp IQ criminal. Maybe he worked the house and saw her paying contractors in cash from the bedroom (surely she has more being the assumption). Maybe there was a safe, but it contained boring paperwork and a will etc. Maybe he had bad intel or thought an old lady living in a $1M house alone had stuff squirreled away. But yes he could have wanted a safe combo, bank account, crypto wallet key etc. even based on wrong intel and the awkward open holstering of the gun could be just for intimidation and coercion (as someone who has worked w/ firearms for 30 years that's my conclusion on that).

Unintended Outcome with an Elderly Medically-compromised victim

Now in the commission of a crime where he trying to coerce a soft target to give up location of cash, accounts, etc. a lot could go south. Most simply an elderly lady with a pacemaker and high blood pressure on meds, could be very stressed and have a cardiac event that he did not count on. Right there, that's it. A reasonable outcome. Even roughing up someone on blood thinners bears a large risk. I don't think based on the Nest cam get up this was a sophisticated individual (though he may have experience). Once the mark is deceased then I can see the whole cliche panic "Oh man, I got to get rid of the body" scenario kick in.

That was very interesting, thank you. Brilliant reframing on assumption of valuables. I hadn't thought of it that way at all. One thing I'm still struggling with is the idea of someone coming to rob her while so thoroughly decked out NOT to leave DNA, then also deciding they had to get rid of the body. Possibly it really was panicked "I have to get rid of this body!!" . Personally, under those exactly circumstances, I would be desperate to get myself out of there and as far away from the body and the house as I could get. BUT, my grade school tests assure me my IQ is well above room temp, so maybe my brain just works differently from Mr. Skell.

 

[Old Jim]

The vehicle on Camino Real has been tentatively identified as a Kia. However, this may not be the correct identification. Figure 1 shows a frame from the video taken from the Ring camera at 2:36 AM on Camino Real. It shows a side view of the vehicle with a hump on the bottom of the window line toward the rear. It is believed that this hump led to the identification of the vehicle as a Kia shown in Figure 2. However, it turns out that this hump is caused by the leaf of a cactus plant in the figure, and not by the vehicle. This can be seen by looking at the next frame of video in Figure 3, which shows that the hump remains behind at the tip of the arrow when the vehicle moves ahead in the next frame while the arrow stays at the same position. It just happens that the shade of gray of the cactus leaf is the same as the shade of gray of the vehicle, making the cactus leaf look like a part of the vehicle. In a later frame, Figure 4, one can also see a side view of the tail lights of the vehicle in the video, and they do not match the side view of the Kia tail lights. So I believe that we should not be looking for a Kia traveling down Camino Real at 2:30 AM on February 1.

The video frames were taken from the Fox News video at the following web site:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027167218812035457

This is the same video as found in Websleuths comment number 40,458 by Templeton on page 2023.

 

[Napoli]

I agree that it could have been either scenario, but what I'm asking is does anyone think that the person(s) responsible has actually had a gain in anyway way from the crime?

Ransom wasn't paid as far as we know, so were they successful in swiping valuables or cash? Just thinking outloud.

I see no rational reason to take NG. ( except if he had sex with her and then too much other DNA could be around besides semen). Taking NG dead or alive in any other scenario was a liability for him. A lot of work.. Ransom demand was authentic and it WAS from the perp. He never really wanted it, imo. He wanted the attention and the repartee from SG. Not money, not jewelry, not cash or credit cards. NG was his reason for being there. He went home with his trophy. Everything else was a plus in his mind. JMO

 

[SaraSmile]

I agree that it could have been either scenario, but what I'm asking is does anyone think that the person(s) responsible has actually had a gain in anyway way from the crime?

Ransom wasn't paid as far as we know, so were they successful in swiping valuables or cash? Just thinking outloud.

All 3 of these plans resulted in no $:
1. If it was originally kidnapping/ransom, but she passed, so no proof of life, plan abandoned, no $.
2. If she was taken to “get rid of” NG, she saw something she shouldn’t have, paranoid/drug people, then no financial gain, but the perps freedom is preserved. No $
3. If it was a Kohberger type crime, just to see what it’s like to kill someone, no $.

Only the ransom made sense for $, but failed.

Really no gain that I can think of so far.

JMO

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

The vehicle on Camino Real has been tentatively identified as a Kia. However, this may not be the correct identification. Figure 1 shows a frame from the video taken from the Ring camera at 2:36 AM on Camino Real. It shows a side view of the vehicle with a hump on the bottom of the window line toward the rear. It is believed that this hump led to the identification of the vehicle as a Kia shown in Figure 2. However, it turns out that this hump is caused by the leaf of a cactus plant in the figure, and not by the vehicle. This can be seen by looking at the next frame of video in Figure 3, which shows that the hump remains behind at the tip of the arrow when the vehicle moves ahead in the next frame while the arrow stays at the same position. It just happens that the shade of gray of the cactus leaf is the same as the shade of gray of the vehicle, making the cactus leaf look like a part of the vehicle. In a later frame, Figure 4, one can also see a side view of the tail lights of the vehicle in the video, and they do not match the side view of the Kia tail lights. So I believe that we should not be looking for a Kia traveling down Camino Real at 2:30 AM on February 1.
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The video frames were taken from the Fox News video at the following web site:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027167218812035457

This is the same video as found in Websleuths comment number 40,458 by Templeton on page 2023.

Personally, I can't make out diddly squat in these videos. I'm glad there are people that may be able to!

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

This isn't necessarily a typical scenario

Yes, most burglaries occur during the day, but then he said that he has worked several burglaries in Tucson where the brazen burglars broke in at night with occupied residents and that it does happen in the area, so it's a possibility and that NG was a soft target. (he also said that neighborhood that he knows is so dark that "you could put your hand in front of your face and not see it." That's a damning quote as to the night conditions from someone who works that area, as he further expanded on the opportunistic set up of NG and her house.


Assumption of Target's Valuables- safe combo, bank accounts, access keys, etc.

Regarding the target; whether she had a safe, a bank account, a crypto wallet, valuable jewelry or cash stashed away, it's not so much as what she actually had, it's what the skell assumed or was under the impression that she had that would motivate him. Many times such erroneous assumptions underlay an incident with a room temp IQ criminal. Maybe he worked the house and saw her paying contractors in cash from the bedroom (surely she has more being the assumption). Maybe there was a safe, but it contained boring paperwork and a will etc. Maybe he had bad intel or thought an old lady living in a $1M house alone had stuff squirreled away. But yes he could have wanted a safe combo, bank account, crypto wallet key etc. even based on wrong intel and the awkward open holstering of the gun could be just for intimidation and coercion (as someone who has worked w/ firearms for 30 years that's my conclusion on that).

Unintended Outcome with an Elderly Medically-compromised victim

Now in the commission of a crime where he trying to coerce a soft target to give up location of cash, accounts, etc. a lot could go south. Most simply an elderly lady with a pacemaker and high blood pressure on meds, could be very stressed and have a cardiac event that he did not count on. Right there, that's it. A reasonable outcome. Even roughing up someone on blood thinners bears a large risk. I don't think based on the Nest cam get up this was a sophisticated individual (though he may have experience). Once the mark is deceased then I can see the whole cliche panic "Oh man, I got to get rid of the body" scenario kick in.

Well-said. Thank you.

 

[SaraSmile]

And really, whether for hope for NG still being alive (although slim) or closure, time is of the essence.

It must be so hard for the family, waiting for a solution.
JMO

 

[SMK777]

Personally, I can't make out diddly squat in these videos. I'm glad there are people that may be able to!

I can't seem to, either

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

I hadn't realized that SG's most recent post specifically used the word recovery That feels telling to me.

I cropped it for privacy, but you can see the full post on SG's Instagram profile.

 

[Napoli]

. Brilliant reframing on assumption of valuables

What was the most valuable thing in that home? NG. Then take it from there. Why? JMO

 

[cathathorse]

It makes me pretty sad to see media gone from Nancy's house and on to whatever the next 'story' is. Genuinely thought this case would be solved pretty quickly. I can only imagine how the family feels.