Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[wibbleflea]

If entry was through the property’s back door, most of the time spent inside, including the subduing of NG, happened well before the video footage.

Remove camera around 2:12 am, leave straight afterwards with NG, with blood spatter on the porch tiles showing the route out. That’s the sequence I’ve assumed ever since Levin said FBI agents told him the video footage was from 2:12 am. The moon shadow analyses posted here previously seem to back that up.

One question, though probably not an important one.

The perp could clearly open the front door from the inside in order to leave with NG, creating the droplets in the process. So if he was inside already and could open that door, why walk around the outside of the house again to remove the camera? The same thing applies if the person we see was part of a team. They were already inside, and later left through the front door. Why walk around the house?

Why didn’t he open the front door to remove the camera, which was mounted right next to the entrance?

He could even have used something from the house to help force the camera from its mount. He would mostly have avoided being on camera, though not entirely. (We’d have seen his gloved hand and his arm – the camera’s angle of view was so wide that we see the front door handle in the lower right of the footage.)

The likely walk around the house and the use of the lantana are probably indicators of something. I just don’t know what.

Did he worry that there was an alarm or sensor on that door, and want to delay opening it for as long as possible? Did he need to get something from his vehicle before removing the camera? Did he worry that the camera would record audio of NG if the front door were open? Were lights on inside, which would have switched the camera away from night mode when the door was opened?

 

[Jade]

Except Nanos says "hundreds of thousands of vehicles that were out driving that time of day." That made me facepalm as well. In a city of about 545,000 people, hundreds of thousands are out driving in the area at 2 a.m. on a Sunday?

BBM


Pima County, Arizona

Population estimates, July 1, 2024, (V2024) 1,080,149

1,080,149​

U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Pima County, Arizona


As of fall 2025, the university enrolled 54,384 students

University of Arizona - Wikipedia


all imo

 

[nycpizzaparty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028905496170926254

Putting in a fence maybe?

 

[submarine7]

But we know that the door nest camera recorded a person "Lantana man" at Nancy's door. We also know that the software detected someone/something on camera at 2:12 a.m.

What time do you believe that the door camera footage was recorded if not at 2:12 a.m.? 1:47 a.m.? If so, why didn't the software detect someone on video at that time?

Harvey Levin said LE verified to him that the footage of the man at Nancy's door was from 2:12 a.m.

Based on all of the above, logical deduction leads me to believe that the man at Nancy's door was recorded at 2:12 a.m.

Agree. I tried to point this out. Regardless, the 2:12 time makes more sense and leaves the right amount of time for what happens at 2:28. JMO

 

[Napoli]

Okay, @Napoli. Team of 2? Inside guy and getaway driver. If this is a preplanned kidnapping, you have to figure out how you are going to remove the target from the scene. If it is a 1 person job, you have to be parked very close by. You can’t be parading a mobility impaired 84 year old through the streets at 2:00 am. You can’t park on the street where your vehicle would stick out like a sore thumb. You can’t park in Nancy’s yard or a neighbor’s yard because your vehicle would be caught on camera.
So what’s a kidnapper to do? You have an accomplice. You both have walkie talkies. The plan is the inside guy enters the house from the side slider or rear door, overtakes the victim, binds her hands, duct tapes her mouth, gets her ready to be taken. The accomplice parks nearby, but not in a yard or on the street. He gets a call on his walkie talkie that the inside guy is ready for pickup with the target. The accomplice swings into the circular drive for a 2 minute pickup from his parking area. Inside guy walks the victim down from the side or back. In and out in 3 minutes.
Where does the accomplice parks so he won’t be noticed? Small businesses and malls often have nighttime security and/or cameras. How about a nearby hotel? People in and out all hours of the night. Not much security except for maybe a drive by every hour or so. They have cameras, but were they all checked? Pull in, shut off your lights and engine, and wait for the call on your walkie talkie. In 5 minutes you are at the victim’s home.
The problem with the original plan was that something went wrong in the house. Nancy put up a much bigger fight than was expected. She got hurt. They had to abort the original exit plan. She had to be carried out and they would use the front door.
1 night, 1 trip, 2 kidnappers.
Whatcha think?

I am stuck on the car. It would have to go in once for sure to drop off perp. Then if the getaway driver leaves and comes back, that's another trip that could be seen on some camera. Just sounds like risky exposure of auto to possible detection by a camera. If the driver is detected by a neighbor, he would have to take off. Now perp is inside with no wheels for escape. I go for 1 perp, 1 car. park and snatch. Now that being said, I plan dinner parties not kidnappings. lol I respect your experience. I do think though that 2 kidnappers are 1 too many. , I cant see what 2 people were going to do with her??? I think the perp acted alone and had a plan in mind and then within some short period of time, she may have passed. Whatever the motive (even though i love mine), it's hard to get 2 people to act in concert about kidnaping an old lady. JMO

 

[shonyakay]

If entry was through the property’s back door, most of the time spent inside, including the subduing of NG, happened well before the video footage.

Remove camera around 2:12 am, leave straight afterwards with NG, with blood spatter on the porch tiles showing the route out. That’s the sequence I’ve assumed ever since Levin said FBI agents told him the video footage was from 2:12 am. The moon shadow analyses posted here previously seem to back that up.

One question, though probably not an important one.

The perp could clearly open the front door from the inside in order to leave with NG, creating the droplets in the process. So if he was inside already and could open that door, why walk around the outside of the house again to remove the camera? The same thing applies if the person we see was part of a team. They were already inside, and later left through the front door. Why walk around the house?

Why didn’t he open the front door to remove the camera, which was mounted right next to the entrance?

He could even have used something from the house to help force the camera from its mount. He would mostly have avoided being on camera, though not entirely. (We’d have seen his gloved hand and his arm – the camera’s angle of view was so wide that we see the front door handle in the lower right of the footage.)

The likely walk around the house and the use of the lantana are probably indicators of something. I just don’t know what.

Did he worry that there was an alarm or sensor on that door, and want to delay opening it for as long as possible? Did he need to get something from his vehicle before removing the camera? Did he worry that the camera would record audio of NG if the front door were open? Were lights on inside, which would have switched the camera away from night mode when the door was opened?

Maybe he was in the process of destroying all of the cameras in the house and then went around back to do the same then came around the front to destroy the door nest cam. He raised his fist at first and then appeared to realize the camera was active.

This could be an option if AB's source was correct that the nest cameras were smashed.

Nanos said on 02/05/26 that he didn't know where that information came from i.e. that the cameras were destroyed. He didn't deny it but said LE is not confirming that.

 

[submarine7]

If entry was through the property’s back door, most of the time spent inside, including the subduing of NG, happened well before the video footage.

Remove camera around 2:12 am, leave straight afterwards with NG, with blood spatter on the porch tiles showing the route out. That’s the sequence I’ve assumed ever since Levin said FBI agents told him the video footage was from 2:12 am. The moon shadow analyses posted here previously seem to back that up.

One question, though probably not an important one.

The perp could clearly open the front door from the inside in order to leave with NG, creating the droplets in the process. So if he was inside already and could open that door, why walk around the outside of the house again to remove the camera? The same thing applies if the person we see was part of a team. They were already inside, and later left through the front door. Why walk around the house?

Why didn’t he open the front door to remove the camera, which was mounted right next to the entrance?

He could even have used something from the house to help force the camera from its mount. He would mostly have avoided being on camera, though not entirely. (We’d have seen his gloved hand and his arm – the camera’s angle of view was so wide that we see the front door handle in the lower right of the footage.)

The likely walk around the house and the use of the lantana are probably indicators of something. I just don’t know what.

Did he worry that there was an alarm or sensor on that door, and want to delay opening it for as long as possible? Did he need to get something from his vehicle before removing the camera? Did he worry that the camera would record audio of NG if the front door were open? Were lights on inside, which would have switched the camera away from night mode when the door was opened?

I don't think he had entered the house yet. I think he was outside creeping from 1:47-2:12. JMO

 

[Trish51]

Except Nanos says "hundreds of thousands of vehicles that were out driving that time of day." That made me facepalm as well. In a city of about 545,000 people, hundreds of thousands are out driving in the area at 2 a.m. on a Sunday?

That’s just in the city limits, I believe. If you add in the outlying areas like where NG lives, east Tucson, NW, SW, it’s closer to 1 million, maybe more. Tucson has some odd city limits.

 

[nycpizzaparty]

Fair enough. Why is mom there with him. What’s your take?

Sometimes in public relations strategy including a woman has a buffering/softening effect. In this case, a guy and his mom. Seems sweet. Letting the public form opinions based on what they are showing. They tried to take control of a narrative. It has been hanging in the air since the night of the Swat. Now LD isn't some mystery felon. He's just a man with a nice mom. Do you believe it?

 

[Bluewing3102]

But we know that the door nest camera recorded a person "Lantana man" at Nancy's door. We also know that the software detected someone/something on camera at 2:12 a.m.

What time do you believe that the door camera footage was recorded if not at 2:12 a.m.? 1:47 a.m.? If so, why didn't the software detect someone on video at that time?

Harvey Levin said LE verified to him that the footage of the man at Nancy's door was from 2:12 a.m.

Based on all of the above, logical deduction leads me to believe that the man at Nancy's door was recorded at 2:12 a.m.

I too believe lantana man was captured at 2:12. I also am leaning towards a wifi-jammer was used at 1:47 causing the system to record a "disconnect" (but later came back online to upload the porch footage to the cloud).

I think the perps easily could've taken NG and left within 15 minutes. So 2:12 - 2:28 isn't that mysterious to me.

The real concern, IMO- is what happened between 1:47 and 2:12AM. That's 25 minutes of unaccounted for time.

 

[UsernameRequired]

Putting in a fence maybe?

No, they are looking for any jewelry or other small items that could have been dropped during Nancy Guthrie’s suspected abduction.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028906805703917820

 

[wibbleflea]

I don't think he had entered the house yet. I think he was outside creeping from 1:47-2:12. JMO

Possible. So the sequence would be: creeps about, takes camera at about 2:12 am, enters through rear, leaves by front door before 2:28? Possible use of a signal jammer at 1:47 am, perhaps to prevent recording of the vehicle entering?

 

[UsernameRequired]

Super long-shot at this point after a month. Unless a neighbor's Tesla had Sentry mode enabled 24/7 and happened to park near a main road near Nancy's home. Any moving dash cam footage would have likely already been overwritten by now since the standard 128GB only holds about 1 hour of footage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028914848197914875

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028914848197914875

 

[OldPueblo]

That’s just in the city limits, I believe. If you add in the outlying areas like where NG lives, east Tucson, NW, SW, it’s closer to 1 million, maybe more. Tucson has some odd city limits.

Yes, I suppose it depends on whether you think he means they're looking at cars that were driving at that time over the entire area. Maybe he did. It came across to me as an outsized retort when the reporter is asking about one specific vehicle 2.5 miles from Nancy's home at 2:36 in the morning.

EBM: As in, how many of those hundreds of thousands of cars on the road would be in a relevant area within the relevant window of time? So I also suppose it depends on how broadly he would define "at that time."

 

[Napoli]

Well-said. He has not been cleared as a suspect.

We know that a federal warrant would have had specific things that pointed the FBI toward LD.

While he may well not be the perpetrator, he is still a suspect with possible evidence that connected him to NG.

LE and FBI may end up arresting and convicting a person that we would never think would have been capable of this premeditated act of violence.

JMO

BBM My guess? Some neighbor of LD knew he had a record and trouble with the law. He lives within 2 or so miles of NG. He just bought a new car. (aha! old car must have been full of blood and was ditched). Alert neighbor calls in tip. He was the approximate weight and maybe age of the perp seen on video. That may have been all they needed for a warrant.

Just my speculation and opinion.

 

[nycpizzaparty]

No, they are looking for any jewelry or other small items that could have been dropped during Nancy Guthrie’s suspected abduction.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028906805703917820

My bad, thanks. Why not just do a granular search of the entire property early on? Maybe they did and it's a repeat.

 

[Curiousobserver]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028905496170926254

No way to even know if this is an official search, or crime scene-tourism? Anything an investigator might find couldn't even be linked to the crime at this point, hundreds of random people have been in front of her house since she has been missing.

 

[NewYork625]

If entry was through the property’s back door, most of the time spent inside, including the subduing of NG, happened well before the video footage.

Remove camera around 2:12 am, leave straight afterwards with NG, with blood spatter on the porch tiles showing the route out. That’s the sequence I’ve assumed ever since Levin said FBI agents told him the video footage was from 2:12 am. The moon shadow analyses posted here previously seem to back that up.

One question, though probably not an important one.

The perp could clearly open the front door from the inside in order to leave with NG, creating the droplets in the process. So if he was inside already and could open that door, why walk around the outside of the house again to remove the camera? The same thing applies if the person we see was part of a team. They were already inside, and later left through the front door. Why walk around the house?

Why didn’t he open the front door to remove the camera, which was mounted right next to the entrance?

He could even have used something from the house to help force the camera from its mount. He would mostly have avoided being on camera, though not entirely. (We’d have seen his gloved hand and his arm – the camera’s angle of view was so wide that we see the front door handle in the lower right of the footage.)

The likely walk around the house and the use of the lantana are probably indicators of something. I just don’t know what.

Did he worry that there was an alarm or sensor on that door, and want to delay opening it for as long as possible? Did he need to get something from his vehicle before removing the camera? Did he worry that the camera would record audio of NG if the front door were open? Were lights on inside, which would have switched the camera away from night mode when the door was opened?

I image that he went to the front door first, and the camera may have alerted Nancy that he was there. She may have spoken to him through the camera (many work like intercom systems) and told him to leave. He may have then noticed the camera.
When he couldn't get that door open from the outside, or perhaps because of the camera, he might have gone around the house to the back door, forcing that one open, and then once he entered the house, may have attacked Nancy as she tried to fight him off. He might have then left with her through the front door.

 

[wibbleflea]

BBM My guess? Some neighbor of LD knew he had a record and trouble with the law. He lives within 2 or so miles of NG. He just bought a new car. (aha! old car must have been full of blood and was ditched). Alert neighbor calls in tip. He was the approximate weight and maybe age of the perp seen on video. That may have been all they needed for a warrant.

Just my speculation and opinion.

His old car (the Dodge Charger) was sitting in the driveway, with severe damage to the front. The warrant would have been for that one, you’d think. The fact that it wasn’t taken (except by the insurance company, later) suggests they had something significant in mind about the Range Rover. It didn’t pan out, obviously.