Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[katydid23]

It's one investigator's opinion, who is experienced with missing persons, cartels, and has worked cases in AZ.

I posted it in response to "everyone thinks they took her South". In his experience it might actually be easier to avoid border surveillance and hole up North in the Mesa/Phoenix area. Additionally, he doesn't think it was the cartel, but low level associates, less sophisticated wannabes, smaller gangs that operate under that umbrella, etc. It's an important distinction, but that corridor is cartel trafficking territory and overseen by them--not to say they have anything directly to do with it or "green lighted" it. Obviously, this is all predicated on the kidnapping or attempting abduction for financial gain theory.

Exactly. That is the same idea as those who think it might be associates of the SATG---So American Theft Group.

They have associates, lower level hanger-on-ers, who might be included in some of the main players crimes, but are not part of the upper tier organisation.

But even so, they can be copy cats, and use what they've learned from the more experienced professionals. They might have learned about pre-planning, surveillance, wifi jammers, masking up, double gloves, burner phones, working in teams, parking far away in dark off streets, etc.

They could be local thuggs, that know about SG and her mom, and decided to go for a ransom demand? But they messed up and didnt realise how fragile her health was?

 

[tbgo]

BE said that cell phone service in the area of NG’s house is almost non-existent. I heard this before. I guess trying to find a hit on a cell phone in the area is out for investigators too. Man, this perp really lucked out.

 

[ab01]

Exactly. That is the same idea as those who think it might be associates of the SATG---So American Theft Group.

They have associates, lower level hanger-on-ers, who might be included in some of the main players crimes, but are not part of the upper tier organisation.

But even so, they can be copy cats, and use what they've learned from the more experienced professionals. They might have learned about pre-planning, surveillance, wifi jammers, masking up, double gloves, burner phones, working in teams, parking far away in dark off streets, etc.

They could be local thuggs, that know about SG and her mom, and decided to go for a ransom demand? But they messed up and didnt realise how fragile her health was?

yeah that ship has sailed and the ones that are still clinging to that are all wearing tight fitting jackets

 

[SlimPickens]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030098336297136470

Do we know that the kidnapper took the camera?

 

[submarine7]

Do we know that the kidnapper took the camera?

Affirmative. He took only the doorbell camera.

 

[tbgo]

Not to start this again but honestly if the only real DNA that was found was linked to the family, could they be overlooking them because of their alibis? I know, I know, they cleared them but I don’t exactly trust the department handling this case. They don’t even take the welcome mat into evidence.

 

[SlimPickens]

Affirmative. He took only the doorbell camera.

Is that sourced or assumed?

 

[vereb]

Why would an inside LE source go outside the agency and share inside information to a journalist though. Nano has been very vague with information found inside the house, because he has said he doesn't want to reveal it. I strongly suspect that her LE sources have not been inside the house and are simply third parties relaying what they've heard second hand. JMO

I doubt AB would know any of the boots-on-the-ground deputies or agents, so I would guess her source is likely a higher-up in the FBI or perhaps state-level in AZ who either gets briefed on the matter him/herself or talks to someone who gets briefed.

 

[rebel123]

Until something 'new breaks' I'm in a 'spin' cycle, just going around and around visiting various subject matter again and again. So won't post until then. I'm still trying to get my head around why someone would even contemplate doing this (this isn't a question).

The break in cases usually happens when the same name appears twice somewhere i.e. member of the public gives info and that name matches with cell tower records, Walmart transactions, car number plate, DNA etc

 

[Serononin]

There's definitely searches happening that most are unaware of - unless you are into flight data/paths.

PCSD with the help of border patrol dogs, aircraft help, infrared, and heat sensors searched all day Sunday through Sunday night.

Here is a screen shot of the paths that were searched Sunday February 1, 2026. Nancy's home is roughly located in the middle of the map. The circles are the aircraft's coverage.

View attachment 650899

The picture source is a screenshot from the first presser on February 2, 2026.

Timestamp: 9:45

On this topic, the call sign of the PCSO helicopter is N599SD, in case any other Flight Radar users are interested. I have zero idea if any of their flights since about 4th Feb have been related to Nancy, but it's still interesting to look at. I'm particularly intrigued by the spot in the Dove Mountain area that was flown over twice by the Pima County helicopter on 6th Feb, and then twice again by the Pinal County helicopter (N151H) the next day

 

[Cassie P]

If I were this kidnapper, I would already be here, in NYC.

Yes, we have surveillance everywhere, you couldn’t take a step without being on camera, but there are 9 million people here and no one knows what he looks like.

JMO

Same thoughts I had about the possibility of a remote vacation/summer cottage location like Flagstaff. Might be difficult to hide in an isolated small town. Cottages are empty during the winter, might be noticeable there is a car and activity in one of them. They also have to go into town for supplies. Usually locals in a small town don't miss a thing when it comes to outsiders?

So yes a big city affords the opportunity to melt into the population. However I think there is a major problem with the NYC idea. This is a 35 hour drive, Tucson to NYC. Transportation of a live kidnap victim or body for that distance seems very risky.

Unless perhaps there was a small private plane at a nearby airport. I wonder if LE checked flight plans for that time period. Some people here are talking about drug cartel kidnapping, maybe the cartels just land planes in the desert, I don't know.

Perhaps you mean the body was disposed of in the nearby desert and the perp was by himself, this would be an easier trip just by himself yes.

But if the perp was local to Tucson, he can just go back to his regular life? Melt back into his day to day routine.

IDK, just thinking out loud.

 

[Serononin]

The article about SG going to NBC the other day bothered me. Why was this news? She is grieving, she is thanking her colleagues. I get all that. However, the photos of her crying and hugging people were not necessary for outsiders to see and something more, IMO Basically it was not informative. She wants to return but she has to see this through about her mom. Said nothing.

Well, why the publicity? Targeted to someone? I am going to put my stalker aside for a moment. This non news story featuring NBC employees embracing her, spoke to me. COULD THIS BE someone she worked with at some time? An NBC page or intern? A "star" she has upstaged or wronged? Food for thought. JMO

Tbh I don't think it's that unusual for media, in the absence of any substantial updates on a missing person's case, to report on what that missing person's family members are up to, even when those family members aren't already famous. Heck, the Daily Mail did a whole article about Gus Lamont's grandmothers being "spotted" buying groceries.

Plus I imagine that there are members of the public who genuinely want to know if and when SG will return to the Today Show

 

[Cassie P]

Read the article/link.

--He thinks the footage screams low level associate and has traits of Mexican mannerisms (Garcia was born and raised in Mexico and is fluent in Spanish and has worked cases there).
--He knows the Tucson corridor is controlled by the cartels so the organized criminals operate under that umbrella, but does not feel it was a direct cartel move, but maybe some small timers who work under them that made a play on their own.
--His experience working cases across the border and in AZ tells him there is less surveillance going up North in the area between Phoenix and Mesa (not in the city proper) than the surveillance/scrutiny on the border.

He makes no claim to the ransom being connected or genuine. Could be separate opportunistic incident from another actor after an initial job gone wrong. And this is all predicated on this being an abduction for financial gain (which could also mean removing her to get her to clean out bank accounts, etc. whatever). He is just giving insight on having worked that area and Mexico and his knowledge of cartels and their associates.

The key point here is he sees the 130 mile area North as viable as opposed to crossing the border.

I did read the article, but it did not give details or motivation, etc.

But I understand the drug cartels do kidnap people as part of their business plan.
Seems however a bit risky to take the mother of a well known US celebrity with connections resulting in massive TV coverage and 400 FBI agents on the case.
As you state however it is lower level and maybe they don't think through their plans very well.

A cartel could land a plane in the desert and fly back to Mexico, disappear?

But yes going north into a big city is better than staying local.

 

[Cassie P]

Exactly. That is the same idea as those who think it might be associates of the SATG---So American Theft Group.

They have associates, lower level hanger-on-ers, who might be included in some of the main players crimes, but are not part of the upper tier organisation.

But even so, they can be copy cats, and use what they've learned from the more experienced professionals. They might have learned about pre-planning, surveillance, wifi jammers, masking up, double gloves, burner phones, working in teams, parking far away in dark off streets, etc.

They could be local thuggs, that know about SG and her mom, and decided to go for a ransom demand? But they messed up and didnt realise how fragile her health was?

This makes sense. Lower level cartel, hangers on. This is how they know about the layers of clothing, double masks, double gloves etc. And all the other parts of the crime process you mention.

But yes they are lower level for a reason. They made mistakes.

 

[Cassie P]

Exactly. That is the same idea as those who think it might be associates of the SATG---So American Theft Group.

They have associates, lower level hanger-on-ers, who might be included in some of the main players crimes, but are not part of the upper tier organisation.

But even so, they can be copy cats, and use what they've learned from the more experienced professionals. They might have learned about pre-planning, surveillance, wifi jammers, masking up, double gloves, burner phones, working in teams, parking far away in dark off streets, etc.

They could be local thuggs, that know about SG and her mom, and decided to go for a ransom demand? But they messed up and didnt realise how fragile her health was?

In this theory, the upper level cartel might not be too happy about the lower level fringe part of the organization bringing massive TV coverage and 400 FBI agents to their doorstep?

 

[Cassie P]

yeah that ship has sailed and the ones that are still clinging to that are all wearing tight fitting jackets

But SG will pay for the body, so there is still money to be made? But perhaps you are suggested there is no longer a way to remain anonymous. Too many FBI agents and publicity on the case.

 

[Napoli]

I think I recall reports to that effect, but we have to assume that the FBI facilitated those family responses because their doing so without direct FBI consent/oversight would be akin to Harvey Levin disclosing the contents of the ransom demand emails when he received them - it would likely be seen as interfering with an active federal investigation.

JMO.

Here's what I know from CLOSE family experience ( law degree and working for the Feds and MS in Journalism). I watched my person go through the journalism degree. Reporters find stuff. They also "hear" stuff. A reporter is VERY OFTEN asked by LE to refrain from printing or reporting things to maintain the integrity of the evidence. People like BE, while they may be disseminating information are also in this to get the exposure. They might be right or relevant 4/10 times. The rest is fluff. Or clicks, or they tend to go to secondary or tertiary sources who are less than reliable.

Not everything is news. AB in my opinion is a gossip columnist. Harvey Levin had a right to, and an obligation to be on TV because he was inserted into this mess by the ransom note writer. I thought his law degree came out loud and clear. He said he wasnt going to say if her got another ransom note. Then he did. I dont believe he made one move without consulting with LE. My point is, he was , at all times, following his law degree and the direction of the FBI as to what he put out there.

Someone interviewed him a few weeks back. Person said to HL, I know you were a lawyer. Without hesitation HL said "I still am". Bingo!

IMO, he knows....JMO

 

[Cassie P]

On this topic, the call sign of the PCSO helicopter is N599SD, in case any other Flight Radar users are interested. I have zero idea if any of their flights since about 4th Feb have been related to Nancy, but it's still interesting to look at. I'm particularly intrigued by the spot in the Dove Mountain area that was flown over twice by the Pima County helicopter on 6th Feb, and then twice again by the Pinal County helicopter (N151H) the next day

Dove Mountain is a high end area with resorts and homes?

 

[Cassie P]

I also like BE and his reports. I do respectfully disagree with him about how LE has dragged innocent people through all of this. LE has to follow the possible evidence and the evidence they had at the time led to C and LD.

Their job is to follow leads and evidence, and consider everybody a possible perpetrator. Search warrants have been approved by judges because there have valid evidence in the warrant--which LE is intentionally keeping sealed and not public--that could connect these people to the crime.

As far as is currently known, these 2 individuals are not suspects. But, LE's job is to follow the clues, pay attention to their evidence and consider everybody a possible suspect.

JMOO

I agree with you Sakura. In any investigation, you make a list of suspects based on the evidence, basic logic, common sense. Then you rule those people in or out. To do so you need to investigate them. So you can start crossing people off your list. The public would be upset if this process was not followed. So LE cannot win here.

 

[wibbleflea]

The note specifically mentioned the watch?

Yes. And the rear floodlights.