GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - #10

[Mom24]

If she skipped school her mom would have been notified immediately. By going to school she bought herself a few hours to get away.

She still would have had a few hours headstart if she hadn't gone to school that morning. Classes here start around 7:30 am, we take attendance at 9:15 and it gets sent to the office and received by about 9:30. Then the grade office secretaries look at the children absent and compare with the calls, emails and notes that came in excusing any absent children. Then they begin the process of calling homes to check in with parents, that can take an additional hour depending on the number of children absent without parental consent. And even if a child is absent without parental consent and they can't immediately reach the parent, if this is a child that isn't normally truant or let's say has a disability, they often won't report it to police. Considering AH's mom worked during the day, if she hadn't shown up the school most likely would have left a message on the home answering system and her mom's cellphone and that may have been 3-3 1/2 hours after school started. So whether or not she went to school that morning really doesn't make a difference to me on whether she intended to run away that day or not.

 

[Steleheart]

She still would have had a few hours headstart if she hadn't gone to school that morning. Classes here start around 7:30 am, we take attendance at 9:15 and it gets sent to the office and received by about 9:30. Then the grade office secretaries look at the children absent and compare with the calls, emails and notes that came in excusing any absent children. Then they begin the process of calling homes to check in with parents, that can take an additional hour depending on the number of children absent without parental consent. And even if a child is absent without parental consent and they can't immediately reach the parent, if this is a child that isn't normally truant or let's say has a disability, they often won't report it to police. Considering AH's mom worked during the day, if she hadn't shown up the school most likely would have left a message on the home answering system and her mom's cellphone and that may have been 3-3 1/2 hours after school started. So whether or not she went to school that morning really doesn't make a difference to me on whether she intended to run away that day or not.

I agree completely. If avoiding her mom was important she would have had the same opportunity for a head start either way.
On a couple of occasions, with my own kids, there was miscommunication regarding planned absence but all that happened was a voice mail recorded message.

 

[Steleheart]

I won't discount the possibility that she planned this but I keep asking myself why did she complicate it this way? Making a plan and packing a bag and just go would have been so much easier. Whoever is responsible for helping her purposely made it look like an abduction and THAT is what put all the pressure on! If she left a note and took her stuff we would not be hearing about her right now and practically no one would be looking for her. If it was planned, from walking the trail and giving a scent to searchers, to taking nothing but 'the clothes on her back', to disabling her phone right away just made trouble for themselves. For this complete a plan to 'go dark' without a trace seems to me to have no purpose other than a groomed abduction/ murder.
Sorry, but in my heart of hearts I personally do not believe that she lasted much longer than her phone. I think this was entirely local, that the person(s) responsible are going about their daily lives and that eventually the emotions in this small town will get to them.
MOO.

ETA: I pray to God every day that I am wrong.

 

[Steleheart]

From the Union Leader: Investigators considering the possibility Abigail Hernandez ran away
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20131230/NEWS07/131239968/0/SEARCH

I just have this to say about this article, the frontline is poorly worded and isn't supported in the article. The article below goes on to talk about the RH's letter but LE still maintains that AH is in grave danger. So it's not that investigators are considering the runaway possibility, it's that RH is considering that possibility. There was nothing in the article to suggest that LE agrees with that possibility. I don't know, but maybe our resident journalist can weigh in on whether that tagline was responsible journalism.

Absolutely! I am not the journalist, lol but I agree the headline is misleading and unfortunately too many people only read headlines.
The article, in fact, reinforces for me how LE AND RH are NOT convinced she ran away. Ruben actually says he doesn't know he's just assuming. Without that assumption he's hopeless!

 

[cluciano63]

I agree completely. If avoiding her mom was important she would have had the same opportunity for a head start either way.
On a couple of occasions, with my own kids, there was miscommunication regarding planned absence but all that happened was a voice mail recorded message.

Unless she did not know that and thought her mother would be called right away. Or she had a ride to meet at 3pm. Who knows...h

 

[BillNH]

From the Union Leader: Investigators considering the possibility Abigail Hernandez ran away
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20131230/NEWS07/131239968/0/SEARCH

I just have this to say about this article, the frontline is poorly worded and isn't supported in the article. The article below goes on to talk about the RH's letter but LE still maintains that AH is in grave danger. So it's not that investigators are considering the runaway possibility, it's that RH is considering that possibility. There was nothing in the article to suggest that LE agrees with that possibility. I don't know, but maybe our resident journalist can weigh in on whether that tagline was responsible journalism.

BBM
4th paragraph.

FBI Agent Kieran Ramsey, one of the lead investigators in the missing person case, acknowledged that the investigation is considering the possibility that Abigail ran away, among several other possibilities.

 

[MURDERER_SERVANT]

I won't discount the possibility that she planned this but I keep asking myself why did she complicate it this way? Making a plan and packing a bag and just go would have been so much easier. Whoever is responsible for helping her purposely made it look like an abduction and THAT is what put all the pressure on! If she left a note and took her stuff we would not be hearing about her right now and practically no one would be looking for her. If it was planned, from walking the trail and giving a scent to searchers, to taking nothing but 'the clothes on her back', to disabling her phone right away just made trouble for themselves. For this complete a plan to 'go dark' without a trace seems to me to have no purpose other than a groomed abduction/ murder.
Sorry, but in my heart of hearts I personally do not believe that she lasted much longer than her phone. I think this was entirely local, that the person(s) responsible are going about their daily lives and that eventually the emotions in this small town will get to them.
MOO.

ETA: I pray to God every day that I am wrong.

If she didn't last much longer than her phone as you say Steleheart , ' the letter ' seems completely a fake . Many of us observe that the searches have almost stopped after that letter which I believe is only serving an abducter's benefits ...JMO

 

[geevee]

I can't say how much I hate to think or ask it, but have cadaver dogs been used at all?

 

[Mom24]

BBM
4th paragraph.

FBI Agent Kieran Ramsey, one of the lead investigators in the missing person case, acknowledged that the investigation is considering the possibility that Abigail ran away, among several other possibilities.

What about that is any different from what KR said many times before when explaining nothing has been taken off the table. The frontline is going to be read that LE now considers AH a runaway and that is simply not true. The RH letter states an assumption and LE has always maintained that nothing is off the table, but the direction hasn't changed and that is what that byline suggests. It's imo irresponsible journalism which is to tell the facts not an opinion, those are editorials not news stories. This was an editorial passed off as a news story and there have been many many many cases of missing children where the parents explored the runaway scenario as an option and kept that door open, it's very common to do as a "just in case" cya move, but this journalist didn't report the facts, he made an editorial and picked and chose which facts he wanted to support his opinion. I get that this story is getting cold, but i'm worried that that news article will make it frigid.

 

[Mom24]

I can't say how much I hate to think or ask it, but have cadaver dogs been used at all?

I think they were but don't quote me on it. In that they found remains I assume they did but I can't find any MSM article that addresses whether or not they were used.

This isn't MSM, but it was reported by a local radio station that there were cadaver dogs. http://conwaymagic.com/?p=6792

 

[geevee]

I think they were but don't quote me on it. In that they found remains I assume they did but I can't find any MSM article that addresses whether or not they were used.

Thanks, I couldn't recall reading whether they had or not. Initially I had thought along the same lines as another poster (in comparison to Skylar Neece's case) but let myself get enthused about the letter received Nov. 6th. It did occur to me that it could have been a fake to mislead the investigation but I really hoped it was a sign she planned to come home for Christmas or New Years. But now that she hasn't, I'm grudgingly going back to my first theory, a situation similar to SN's, unfortunately.

 

[BillNH]

What about that is any different from what KR said many times before when explaining nothing has been taken off the table. The frontline is going to be read that LE now considers AH a runaway and that is simply not true. The RH letter states an assumption and LE has always maintained that nothing is off the table, but the direction hasn't changed and that is what that byline suggests. It's imo irresponsible journalism which is to tell the facts not an opinion, those are editorials not news stories. This was an editorial passed off as a news story and there have been many many many cases of missing children where the parents explored the runaway scenario as an option and kept that door open, it's very common to do as a "just in case" cya move, but this journalist didn't report the facts, he made an editorial and picked and chose which facts he wanted to support his opinion. I get that this story is getting cold, but i'm worried that that news article will make it frigid.

Your comment So it's not that investigators are considering the runaway possibility, it's that RH is considering that possibility is completely contrary to what the article says. The lead investigator acknowledges that they are considering the runaway theory along with others. The headline says they are considering the possibility, there is nothing definite in that. Maybe that's not what you want to hear but it seems to be the reality.

 

[The Cheese]

Hasn't law enforcement said all along they're considering all possibilities? Or am I thinking of other cases?

ETA Yeah they have. Example Oct 23rd

Ramsey said police must consider all possibilities. Abigail may have been in an accident or she may have run away, though he stressed there is no indication she did.

http://www1.whdh.com/news/articles/...to-be-held-for-missing-nh-teen/#ixzz2pAmLQfPR

This came up in my search too. It's a good quote. Dec 7th article about letter press conference

Initially authorities believed Abigail's disappearance may have been an abduction, and continue to believe that she may be being held against her will, but nevertheless they are continuing to classify it as a missing persons case, as all possibilities have not yet been ruled out, according to Ramsey.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/06/us/missing-teen-letter-home/

 

[Steleheart]

If she didn't last much longer than her phone as you say Steleheart , ' the letter ' seems completely a fake . Many of us observe that the searches have almost stopped after that letter which I believe is only serving an abducter's benefits ...JMO

I agree and feel strongly that the letter is a fake - see my previous post.

Searches stopped way way before that letter. In fact Mission for the Missing were the last ones to conduct searches AFAIK and that was at the end of October.

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/index...am-searches-for-abby-but-nothing-useful-found

The leaves fell and the snow came. Vigils continued and LE continued to ask for tips and information. They "continue to ask the public for information"

http://www.myfoxboston.com/video?clipId=9607183&topVideoCatNo=238258&autoStart=true

If anyone has information from LE or MSM that LE continued searches up until that letter and then stopped, I would love to see it. I have no information nor can I find any that LE has backed off other than assumptions made here. This incorrect information has become accepted fact once again.

Abby is still classified as "Missing" not Endangered Runaway and not Abducted.

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/kidnap/abigail-hernandez

For people to just fall into the assumption that she ran just because it remains ONE of the possibilities, is unfortunate. Kieran Ramsey, in his latest statement said he is only considering that "among other possibilities."

http://www.unionleader.com/article/...rce=RSS?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

And I agree with you that all of it, the letter, the assumptions and the lack of interest is only serving the perpetrator's benefit.

 

[Steleheart]

BBM
4th paragraph.

FBI Agent Kieran Ramsey, one of the lead investigators in the missing person case, acknowledged that the investigation is considering the possibility that Abigail ran away, among several other possibilities.

The point was about the Headline. It made it seem that something changed with Law Enforcement when in fact nothing has changed since the PC of 12/6.
It's suprising to me coming from Dan Seufert. IMO

 

[BillNH]

I agree and feel strongly that the letter is a fake - see my previous post.

Searches stopped way way before that letter. In fact Mission for the Missing were the last ones to conduct searches AFAIK and that was at the end of October.

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/index...am-searches-for-abby-but-nothing-useful-found

The leaves fell and the snow came. Vigils continued and LE continued to ask for tips and information. They "continue to ask the public for information"

http://www.myfoxboston.com/video?clipId=9607183&topVideoCatNo=238258&autoStart=true

If anyone has information from LE or MSM that LE continued searches up until that letter and then stopped, I would love to see it. I have no information nor can I find any that LE has backed off other than assumptions made here. This incorrect information has become accepted fact once again.

Abby is still classified as "Missing" not Endangered Runaway and not Abducted.

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/kidnap/abigail-hernandez

For people to just fall into the assumption that she ran just because it remains ONE of the possibilities, is unfortunate. Kieran Ramsey, in his latest statement said he is only considering that "among other possibilities."

http://www.unionleader.com/article/...rce=RSS?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

And I agree with you that all of it, the letter, the assumptions and the lack of interest is only serving the perpetrator's benefit.

BBM

It is just as unfortunate that some just assume she was abducted and/or held against her will and/or was murdered and disregard any other possibilities to the point of passing disinformation to sustain that thought. I am truly sorry that many people have lost interest for whatever reason, but fraudulently invoking fear in people is the wrong way to muster support. The official word from LE is they JUST DON'T KNOW. They are the professionals, they do this for a living, their words should be taken at face value.

 

[Steleheart]

BBM

It is just as unfortunate that some just assume she was abducted and/or held against her will and/or was murdered and disregard any other possibilities to the point of passing disinformation to sustain that thought. I am truly sorry that many people have lost interest for whatever reason, but fraudulently invoking fear in people is the wrong way to muster support. The official word from LE is they JUST DON'T KNOW. They are the professionals, they do this for a living, their words should be taken at face value.

I haven't disregarded any possibilities - see my previous posts.

What Disinformation? Please be specific. Thanks.

What have I said that was fraudulent? Love to know!

 

[CatFancier]

If she skipped school her mom would have been notified immediately. By going to school she bought herself a few hours to get away.

At my kids' high school, I don't get the absent report until 5pm by phone and email. If it's similar in her school, that would giver her all day.

 

[Jade127402]

I don't feel she ran away at all. It doesn't add up to me. But then again I do not know this girl only what I have read and seen online. She had a boyfriend who she had text, she had many friends, her birthday was coming up. What type of student was she? Did she like school? Why would a 14 year old girl take off from school if she was a good student? So that would be a key factor I would think in this investigation? I would ask if she was a good student, if school was important to her, did she get good grades, was her attendance good? I mean if this girl likes school would she just take off and forget about her education? I think personally she ran into someone local that day and went willingly with them but they are not who she thinks they are and she probably went willingly not thinking anything bad would happen. Those are my thoughts if she did not run away which I don't really feel she did runaway but feel they need to check locally. I say this because if she was involved with someone online and planned this I would feel that they would already have found her through the technology of tracing internet addresses and phone records? Those are just my thoughts. I pray that they will find her soon.

 

[Mom24]

BBM

It is just as unfortunate that some just assume she was abducted and/or held against her will and/or was murdered and disregard any other possibilities to the point of passing disinformation to sustain that thought. I am truly sorry that many people have lost interest for whatever reason, but fraudulently invoking fear in people is the wrong way to muster support. The official word from LE is they JUST DON'T KNOW. They are the professionals, they do this for a living, their words should be taken at face value.

BBM
Yes I agree and the article would have been fine to say "letter from RH assumes daughter ran away". But the official word from LE is and has been they don't know and to state in the frontline that LE is suddenly now putting the runaway theory front and center is misinformation. LE doesn't know and I agree their words should be taken at face value. I myself vacillate between did she leave of her volition or was she abducted and all that remains in between. Is she alive or was she killed shortly after she went missing. Did she intend to just hang out with someone for the afternoon and ended up being abducted, don't know. But until and unless LE clearly states that they have now changed their position to feel this is a runaway, then to theorize that as a news article is poor judgement, imo. Runaways don't get looked for, point in case the girls that castro raped and beat and tortured for 10 years. And even if she is a run away, it doesn't mean she's sitting eating bons bons and watching tv all day. LE does continue to say she's in grave danger, I have to take that at face value as well.