NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 #15

[sony12]

Says the fragments date back between 1774 and 1942. Sheesh. Is that all they can narrow it down to?

 

[JudgeJoe]

Says the fragments date back between 1774 and 1942. Sheesh. Is that all they can narrow it down to?

And not even certain 100% in that range.
“Radiocarbon testing indicates the bones date back to between 1774 and 1942 with a 95.4% probability.”

Scientists have been saying for years radiocarbon dating is inaccurate. You’d think there’d be a better way.
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-cornell-illuminates-inaccuracies-radiocarbon-dating.html

 

[JerseyGirl]

Bone Fragments Found In New Hampshire Not Those Of Missing Woman Maura Murray

 

[Laughing]

Well, several decades have passed since I took statistics -- but a confidence level/probability above 95% is as good as it gets.

Not looking for a link, maybe someone with more recent or extensive statistics education will find us and fill us in?

 

[Visitor777]

I have just recently begun to look into this case and have to admit I am in no means an expert on any of the details, but in the little bits of information I have heard on various podcasts and read about in various locations I feel confident of my opinions below:
1. Maura did not vanish to begin a new life or runaway from the men in her life. I am not the expert on this case that James Renner is, but I just have not seen evidence to support this theory, and after all this time I feel strongly she would have been discovered by now.
2. In my opinion the family, in particular Maura's father and sister have been on the receiving end of some baseless claims and attacks. Does that mean I think they know more than has been reported? I am not sure at this point, but don't feel that they are involved.

Which leaves me with three remaining scenarios that are possible:
1. Maura was abducted by a stranger, which seems at least possible, but the likelihood in such a remote area seems far fetched, but again not impossible
2. Maura succumbed to the elements after either evading the accident site or do to injury sustained in the accident, but I think after the searches done some sort of evidence would have been located.

And number 3 and my own opinion and speculation, which in my mind has way to may coincidences to not be possible and according to Occam's principle has merit. Maura was heading to NH for some reason and people have speculated on the reason for a long time, which is supposition at best. A person has stated that they were familiar with the area of the crash and were in the area in or around the same time as Maura went missing, possibly even driving past the crash. This person, in the very least, was familiar with Maura and her group of friends at UMASS including Maura's best friend and now has some sort of relationship with Maura's then boyfriend. This person has interjected themselves into the case and have attempted to steer the facts and direction of the case. We don't know much, or even if there was a gathering or party the night Maura crashed her father's car at UMASS, but from people's word at least Maura and two friends were in a dorm room drinking prior to that crash, this person described was acquainted with at least one of the people at this "gathering", so my own speculation is this person could have possibly been in that dorm room. Of the UMASS names mentioned as friends that I have seen, it appears Maura's friend base were fellow members of the track and cross country team, which this person was as well. We have seen phone records that the boyfriend contacted Maura's best friend on one occasion, so the boyfriend was at least familiar with Maura's group of friends to some degree. I believe it is a possibility that Maura created a story to excuse her from classes and intended to meet up with at least this one person, but possibly others in NH and was heading to this location when the crash occurred and may have been driving in tandem with others to get to this location, which was a mere hour from the crash site. How or if Maura made it to the location is unknown and I am in way insinuating anything sinister was perpetrated by this person or Maura's boyfriend. Heck, this person may have assisted Maura is her disappearing if that were the case, which I don't feel it is the case. I don't know what happened after that crash, but I have seen that the theories of local residences continue to be proved futile, as no trace evidence at any of their properties has been located. Certainly there were some sketchy people in that area, but after the amount of investigation conducted something would have tied these folks to Maura. There is evidence to show that Maura was driving a direction familiar to this one person and towards a location that this person could quite possibly have been at that time which is may be mere coincidence, but odds would have to be very low for that to happen. I have not seen any sort of proof of this person being in the location, other than their word, but would be curious to see whom they were in the area with, their activities during their time in the area, and what they were driving at the time.

Clearly I will not name this person, but they can be found online and the information I have used to come to my opinion can also be found online.

Again just the opinions of a casual observer from about as far away from the location as is possible in this country.

 

[Hazelnutty]

Welcome to Websleuths @Visitor777 . Great Sleuthing & excellent first post.

 

[sony12]

Yeah there is a very strong possibility that Maura's group of friends were involved or at the very least know something. Very little is known to the public about Maura's social life (Maura's family likely isn't even completely aware of the social life she led). Chances are she probably had a bit of a crazy social life like a lot of college students do. And occasionally when people do have 'wild' social lives unfortunate things do happen once in awhile.

A very plausible reason why she has 'vanished' is because she simply didn't die in the vicinity of the wreck and people are simply looking in the wrong place.

 

[Visitor777]

Thanks for the welcome, clearly this case remains unsolved for various reasons, the least of which is the abundance of rabbit holes to do down and get lost in. I am not a firm believer in coincidences or searching out clues that fit my narrative. In everyday life I subscribe to Occam's Razor theory that is mostly misstated as "the simplest explanation is usually the best one" when in reality the true theory states "entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity". Bertrand Russell explained this theory by stating "whenever possible, substitute constructions out of known entities for interferences to unknown entities", which I find very fitting in this particular case. There are tons of speculations and unknown entities that have anyone, including myself, that has looked into this case running in circles. So taking simply the known entities of this case and building around those to create a theory is in my opinion the best approach. Rumors, possible sightings, speculations, and uncorroborated information simply muddies the waters.

If you start at the beginning there is documented proof Maura had some issues at West Point and documented proof these issues seemingly went with her to UMASS. Does this paint her in a negative light and make her out to be a bad person? Absolutely not, I have a daughter in college and I assure you these are behaviors conducted by numerous college age people. What it does show is Maura may have had a propensity for dishonest behavior to get her way, so is unreasonable to infer that perhaps the phone calls, breaking down at work about her sister, and emails about a death in the family were all a dishonest approach to be excused from work and school to meet friends? In my life I have seen countless excuses and lies for my daughter to miss work or school to hang out with friends or boyfriend, this is what young irresponsible people do. I am sure I would never paint my daughter in a negative light, as Maura's father has not painted her negatively, for simple indiscretion of being young and irresponsible. I guess what I am getting at is no one has come forward, other than Maura's boss, proving Maura's mental state around the time she went missing. Any theory she went to NH to commit suicide has no bases in fact, unless some one can provide proof of Maura's mental state the night she went missing, and simply should not be used to fit an individuals theory. Outside of an email to her boyfriend saying she didn't want to talk to anyone at that time, all other interactions with Maura contend the day she went missing she was acting normal, which due to being from more than one source could point to proof of her mental state, granted I will concede that people with suicidal ideations have been reported as acting normal prior to the event, so perhaps without further proof her mental state cannot be known and should not be considered when looking for known entities. I believe the closest anyone will get to understanding Maura's mindset the day she went missing are the people at the party or gathering or what ever it was and her father's statements of the day she went missing. The people at this gathering are not speaking for whatever reason and her father claims outside of a little crying due to the car accident early that morning, that Maura didn't seem distraught. After all of this I see no proof she was suicidal and her actions such as attending a party or gathering tend to lead credence to this opinion. I can clearly in mind (I have a college age daughter I remind you) see her attending this gathering and hearing about another friend or associate having a place in NH, so a plan is hatched to get out of work and school and head out for fun.

 

[Visitor777]

After leaving UMASS Maura apparently stopped and bought alcohol, but I am unsure how this is known, other than spilled wine in the car. I imagine sometime afterwards the video captured her taking money out of the bank. I believe both of these facts to be true, well I know the bank stop is true, and all indications are the alcohol stop is true. At some point prior to this Maura is calling around looking for accommodations, which is evident by her phone records. Realistically, looking at these three actions accommodations are not necessary if you plan to commit suicide, cash is irrelevant if you are not longer alive, and no need for that much alcohol if you are intent on suicide. These actions all represent actions that would be carried by someone planning to reach a location where accommodations would be necessary, where cash can be spent, and where alcohol can be consumed.

 

[minazoe]

Brilliant..V777..I do think people think that another car accident (second or third).may have been the catalyst for suicide.

while I do think she might have been upset and drinking..I think she would have dealt with it come morning..

I think either she was tailed from that bar or she got lost and froze to death during the night.as alcohol gives a false sensation of warmth against the cold.she could have had a head injury as well.. I think all her friends up there remained silent as not wanting to be attached to this nightmare.

Israel Keyes is my suspect now. ( after all these years).

mOO

 

[minazoe]

it makes some sense...she is followed at an easy distance and clip from the bar..the killer comes upon the spinout wreck thing..says hey weren't you just at the bar? she recognizes him( he seems totally nice and normal).. I can give you a ride up to the store , you can get a signal there.. get a tow.

and that's how fast she's gone. mOO

 

[JudgeJoe]

it makes some sense...she is followed at an easy distance and clip from the bar..the killer comes upon the spinout wreck thing..says hey weren't you just at the bar? she recognizes him( he seems totally nice and normal).. I can give you a ride up to the store , you can get a signal there.. get a tow.

and that's how fast she's gone. mOO

That scenario, with any ol’ generic ill-intending perp, has always seemed most likely to me. But Israel Keyes? Unlikely- even though I’m sure his other victims were equally unlikely… Jmo.

 

[minazoe]

He was known to go to that area and had been in that area before...and also his absolute refusal to give up other cases by killing himself...yeah he has other victims, unknown ones. mOO

added: Maura is a very strong and athletic girl , it would take someone very strong and armed with a gun to best her...even drunk I would not take her on, she is an athlete and has been a cadet..no way.

 

[minneolo]

This is one of those cases I really hope is solved sometime. Something about it just… bothers me.

That said, if I had to bet, my theory is that she succumbed to the elements and has just been overlooked in the searches so far. I understand there have been many searches, but IMHO there are just so many instances of competent SAR efforts simply missing a victim - we even have a thread dedicated to it.

Remains Found in Area After LE/SAR Searches

In fact, I even believe that there was more going on in Maura’s life than perhaps many knew, I just think that it was not related to her disappearance

 

[minazoe]

just some thoughts about IK

Known to kidnap
lives in Alaska so no aversion to winter weather
kidnaped a young woman in Alaska
known to kidnap and walked a victim through the snow for some time before taking her to a location
very physically fit and vaguely attractive
is prepared when he commits his murders although had things go very wrong
admitted to many more murders
is known to have been in this area
takes victims a gunpoint
spends a great deal of money, traveling to areas an renting cars to satisfy his addiction
told FBI that his victims will never be found
would go places to hunt and look for a perfect victim
might follow/study a victim for days
there are huge holes in his story where his whereabouts cannot be confirmed
he would always be prepared so would not have to go shopping for zip ties , guns, money, tools or
items for disposal of remains.
he sometimes found a good victim the first time out..and other times he had to"settle".

I know he was questioned about Maura Murray and I wonder if there are any cops out there that think this is what happened to Maura.

when I think of my early 20's , being extremely independent, going out alone and coming and going as I pleased,
this could have happened just about every weekend...stopping somewhere...looking for some folks you may have met before..waiting til it gets a little later to head to a party...make some calls..chillax...then you walk out..get in your car and it's dark now you don't see that guy from the bar is behind you and is going to follow you now..and then the rag in the pipe...I just can't work this out as a suicide or accidental death..it's something else..it has to be.

mOO. IMO.

 

[jetsfanjohn]

I am no expert on this case, but my theories are :-

50% chance - Succumbed to the elements/got lost in forest while hiding from the Police.

30% chance - For whatever reason ended up in that building where the Police dogs reacted.

20% chance - Abducted or enticed from her car in that short space of time between the last eyewitness sighting of her and the arrival of the Police.

 

[minazoe]

that building is very interesting. mOO

 

[annpats]

Says the fragments date back between 1774 and 1942. Sheesh. Is that all they can narrow it down to?

Well, in the search for Maura, that's all it needs to be narrowed down to.

 

[browning]

I just don't see the Keyes thing. Still think she succumbed to the elements somewhere in the forest

 

[Curious_in_NC]

Here's the Keyes timeline. Unless he drove from SLC to NH and back again non-stop in another vehicle, or figured out a way to reset the rental's odometer, I don't see how he could be involved.

Israel Keyes Timelines *NO DISCUSSION*

February 6 - 13, 2004: Salt Lake City, UT -
Vehicle rental (Enterprise); silver Volkswagen Jetta, Utah license plate 267WVW; Keyes drove 522 miles, did not have permission to leave state - Salt Lake City, Utah