Retrieving wreckage from AirAsia Flight To Singapore- no survivors recovered

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  • #261
BBM...

I apologize if this has been discussed at length... I am way behind in the thread...:seeya:

the announcement that the pilot requested an "unusual" course is puzzling...

If the plane needed to detour over or around thunderstorms, I do not imagine that the requested modified course would be "unusual".... But rather "expected"...

All... JMO...

Maybe it was unusual in the sense that the new flight path wasn't that much different than the original one.
There is a map close to the beginning of the thread that shows the plane's original flight path and the new one.
IMO, it wasn't that different.

But that is just my two cents!
 
  • #262
.
No emergency signals .... ?


Flightradar24 @flightradar24 · 10m 10 minutes ago
Flightradar24 did not pick up any emergency signals from #QZ8501 The signal was just lost at 23:12 UTC

Flightradar24 @flightradar24 · 9m 9 minutes ago
#QZ8501 may have flown out of Flightradar24 coverage at 23:12 UTC as we are missing coverage on lower altitudes in this area.

Flightradar24 @flightradar24 · 6m 6 minutes ago
The time is now 4:42 UTC which means that #QZ8501 has been missing for 5h and 30min. Search and rescue operation underway.

BBM...

does this mean air control lost contact with ALL planes that were/are flying at the lower elevations?

or just the one that is missing?

:waitasec:
 
  • #263
I would strongly assume that.




I agree, it doesn't make sense. Something is muddled up in that sentence (cnn's, not yours).

Maybe it was meant to be: they lost radio contact at 6:18 but were still able to follow the plane on radar until 7:55?

Yes, that would make more sense.
Hopefully this discrepancy will get cleared up!
 
  • #264
Geez....the photos of the families/friends are so heartbreaking.....the anguish must be unimaginable. I hope they receive word soon.
 
  • #265
BBM...

I apologize if this has been discussed at length... I am way behind in the thread...:seeya:

the announcement that the pilot requested an "unusual" course is puzzling...

If the plane needed to detour over or around thunderstorms, I do not imagine that the requested modified course would be "unusual".... But rather "expected"...

All... JMO...

Great point, Clue ! You're right. If it's common to go around or above storms, why call it ' unusual' ?
 
  • #266
If it's crashed near the island, then debris should be easy enough to spot at dawn.

The weather looks much better to.
 
  • #267
I just heard on BBC News they will start the search at 5:00 am. So that is 2 1/2 hrs!

(I just thought they would wait for sunrise)
when I posted before.
 
  • #268
I just heard on BBC News they will start the search at 5:00 am. So that is 2 1/2 hrs!

(I just thought they would wait for sunrise)
when I posted before.

Sunrise at 5:30a - not too far off.
 
  • #269
This flight took off at 530 am and contact was lost at 724 am. What was ETA at destination?
 
  • #270
  • #271
James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV
Satellite image around time #AirAsia flight went missing, very vigorous thunderstorms (black) north of Surabaya

View attachment 66401
https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV
I noticed a hail core in the large storm (the black area indicates hail). I wonder if a hail storm would act like a bird strike with immediate results? Maybe the turbulence wouldn't down the plane, but a puncture hole or several could be devastating.
 
  • #272
I was just about to say this. You and I are totally in sync today.


And, conspiracy theories aside here, wouldn't it be good to look at why this region of the world is having such disastrous aviation incidents this year?

If any more happen it could start to be like the Bermuda triangle.

In AF447 the Air France plane that stalled in the sky the pilots were in panic mode and couldn't right the situation. There has been discussion and concern on the airliners.net forum that pilots are seriously unprepared for exceptional events such as stalling and are over reliant on auto pilot.

I don't know. What I learned about what pilots go through in training and constant retraining, they make them go through every conceivable possible problem over and over and over again, every six months or so, retraining on simulators during which the catastrophes they throw at them become mmore and more impossible.

Remember that Canadian flight that gilded to the Azores with zero engine function? Talk about stall! I think 99.99999999999% of commercal pilots can handle it all.

What Happened To Flight QZ8501? Five Theories

Aviation experts give their views on how QZ8501 disappeared from radar screens over the Java Sea on a routine short-haul flight.

Mechanical Failure
Hit By Storms
Stalled By Ice
Deliberate Act
Pilot Error

So basically, they don't know.
 
  • #273
Waking up this morning I'm saddened to see that the plane still has not been located. I hope daybreak brings some answers for the families. Too heartbreaking to ponder the possibility of yet another missing jet, I fear living in a world where we eventually become desensitized to these sort of things. :(

Keeping all the families in my thoughts today, it's just so sad. Thank you to all you websleuthers for your updates, they are much appreciated.
 
  • #274
I noticed a hail core in the large storm (the black area indicates hail). I wonder if a hail storm would act like a bird strike with immediate results? Maybe the turbulence wouldn't down the plane, but a puncture hole or several could be devastating.

There is no way hail could puncture the skin of a plane! But hmmm. Is it possible a bunch of ice could fly into the engines like a flock of birds? That's something to think about.
 
  • #275
I noticed a hail core in the large storm (the black area indicates hail). I wonder if a hail storm would act like a bird strike with immediate results? Maybe the turbulence wouldn't down the plane, but a puncture hole or several could be devastating.

Hmm, I wonder about that. When hail hits our cars we can still drive unless its' really huge hail and breaks a window. But ( this is where science comes in and its' not my strong suit, so forgive me in advance ) hail comes down from high above and gets heavier and heavier as it travels earthward right? SO would hail that high up be having any real weight with it enough to make a hole in the plane? I just ran this theory past my kids . They think that the planes speed of 3 or 400 mph would still mean that hail , even small, could be a factor. However, I would think across the world that we would know if hail was taking down planes. It would seem a common occurrence . It's got to be hailing somewhere near planes every few days , right? Pardon the ramble.
 
  • #276
I noticed a hail core in the large storm (the black area indicates hail). I wonder if a hail storm would act like a bird strike with immediate results? Maybe the turbulence wouldn't down the plane, but a puncture hole or several could be devastating.

2 that I remember from seeing the documentaries of them:

Southern Airways Flight 242 had completely engine failure due to HAIL.
It made a crash landing with some survivors.

http://www.tailstrike.com/040577.htm

TACA Airlines Flight 110 had complete engine failure due to HAIL.
They made a REMARKABLE landing on a levee. It was incredible. All survived.

http://lessonslearned.faa.gov/ll_main.cfm?TabID=1&LLID=40&LLTypeID=2
 
  • #277
There is no way hail could puncture the skin of a plane! But hmmm. Is it possible a bunch of ice could fly into the engines like a flock of birds? That's something to think about.
I have seen some very large and jagged hail stones in my time. I think it is entirely possible for one to breach a plane in a high velocity situation. Think of the speed of a climbing plane and the force behind the speed of a hail stone. It would be like a vehicle hitting an object moving into it head-on which would amp the impact.

Or going into the engine would be another possibility.

ETA: Reading up on the subject, it seems hail going into an engine would not be a significant problem. Hail can take out windshields and crack the hull.
 
  • #278
Are ground controllers for the plane able to see that a weather system would be at 30k-55k feet? That is what is being reported as the top of the system; the system basically topped off at 55k feet. So, saying it was "unusual" for them to take this course might not be too far out to say. Several people on CNN have stated there is no way the plane would clear that, for obvious reasons.


Also, news reports are now saying one passenger was an energy executive traveling with his 2-year old child.
 
  • #279
CNN just had the weather guy explaining the thunder storms and clouds/winds etc in that area.
I think he would have mentioned if there had been hail?
 
  • #280
I'm sorry to be naive here, but don't planes fly high above thunderstorms? I understand at take off and landing it's an issue but this was in between either and should have been at a way higher altitude. Or that is my understanding. Feel free to school me. tks

Hi Schmae!!

Our media are at it again! And yuk this means Richard West is coming oh no! Help.


Interestingly media is bringing in ML370. IMO.There are no comparisons to the two incidents whatsoever. Night and day. This is starting to look much like Air France.


The headlines coming out of that region of the world the last month have been monsoons! Rain – very very bad weather. Its going to be weather initiated event.. But there are some caveats here. Both today and Air France the aircraft involved (different models) were manufactured by Airbus.


Boeing is their biggest competitor. When Airbus designed this series, they went into this concept they call the “glass cockpit”. Did not like the idea of it when they first started. Basically, Airbus design strategy was that since the majority of aviation disasters have a human component mixed in they were going to use technology in an effort to address the human component.


Boeing refused to take the flight crew out of the cockpit in emergencies. Airbus designed to make the plane have the final authority when flight parameters go out of norm.. The debut flight of this technology, in front of the entire globe, crashed in front of spectators, with media aboard (survived amazingly) because the computers would not obey the pilot – based on design.


All airbus aircraft are flown with a little 8 inch joy stick like your kids use on XBOX or whatever! Pic
In Air France, basically they encountered turbulence, the computers responded erroneously because an instrument was blocked, think speedometer in your car, if your speedometer is “reading” your slowing down, when in reality you are speeding up you have some problems.


In additional, the driver in the car or in the plane has its own perceptions and sensations of what is happening. No matter what your speedometer is saying your “feel” like you are speeding up, but it is saying the opposite, your natural inclination mentally is to try and slow your car, no matter what instruments are saying.


But in Air France (Using Air France cause the similarities are striking) same thing. So the computer was doing the opposite of what the flight crew wanted the aircraft to do as it relates to climbing or descending. Then what the pilots were trying to do to correct did not make sense – the body sensations etc did not match what they were “doing” and how the aircraft was responding. The alarms going off, based on wrong info, confused the poor guys even more. They ran out of sky to figure out what the heck was going on, why what they were telling the airplane to do. It was pilot error BUT humans need time to “overcome” sensations IMO.


In essence if you feel like your speeding up when really slowing down and you put on the brakes instead of the gas your going to get the exact opposite of what you perceive you need to be doing to avoid crashing.


I think that is what happened here. They got into inclement weather, freezing likely, (icing messes up the airplanes version of a speedometer). When an aircraft losses a specific amount of speed/forward motion, the wings can no longer lift the plane or keep it airborne. It stalls. So speed is vital. I think they stalled the airplane while trying to deal with the horrible weather, start a climb, were hit with a downdraft and began a battle with the aircraft.


Unconfirmed reports indicate they had it on radar for a while after lost actual contact which would, at least for some period of time indicate an intact aircraft (not initially destroyed at onset of event).


CNN comparing to MAL is just silly. From the get go. I think we all would agree that a compact car accident is, in and itself different than an 18 wheeler truck crash. MAL 370 size wise, is an 18 wheeler heavy load. This aircraft is a cute little VW bug!


There was no weather issue MAL. compared to severe weather issues with today. Just IMO !

"Speedometer on planes. IF tip gets blocked wrong speed given to comptuers
1B1FE816-FDF8-4284-AA1440243F4494AD_article.jpg


Here is the joystick all Airbus aircraft are flown with

images


Images Goggle

AIrbus notions about the glass cockpit and its implications:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass_cockpit

Here is worlds first view of the glass cockpit!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cv2ud1339E
 
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