OCT 24, 2022
Russia's been shelling civilian housing and infrastructure since the war escalated on Feb. 24 and has a body count in the thousands to show for it. But recently, Moscow prioritized attacking power plants throughout Ukraine, damaging more than a third
kyivindependent.com
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Russia has used thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles so far, each of which costs millions of dollars. This is
unsustainable. It eventually needed to ration its precise, high-tech missiles, unable to keep domestic production up with use rate. To continue to pressure Ukraine from long range, Russia needed another solution.
The answer was found in masses of cheap Iranian "kamikaze drones," scores of which have attacked the country's power plants and
residences over the past few weeks.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia ordered over 2,400 of these drones. ...
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While Ukraine has air defense systems and is getting more from the West, it's not nearly enough to protect all critical infrastructure and cities across the entire country. Ukraine is massive, the largest wholly-European country by area.
Ukraine will need many more systems from its allies if it hopes to get through the winter with a significant part of its critical infrastructure intact. Many of these will, unfortunately, be expensive. Ukraine will also need to adjust its approach to air defense to be able to defeat the maximum number of Iranian weapons at the lowest possible cost.
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Russia also sought to hide the source of these weapons — likely shipping in parts and doing final assembly in Russia. In keeping with its pretense, Russia has renamed the Shahed-136 to "Geran-2," the Russian word for Geranium. Its smaller brother, the Shahed-131, is dubbed the “Geran-1.”
Over the summer, dozens of Iranian flights could be tracked to Russia, possibly carrying military equipment.
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Once the Shahed is detected, it's very easy to bring down. Since Russia started using them against Ukraine, they have been destroyed by everything from advanced anti-air missiles to assault rifle fire from infantry on the ground.
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According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate, Ukraine has shot down more than two-thirds of Shaheds launched by Russia.
The problem is, it spent a lot of expensive resources to do so. Many air defense systems cost over $1 million per missile. Even a man-portable Stinger costs more than one Shahed-136.
For a country that depends on foreign aid to defend its airspace, Ukraine can't really afford to keep using million-dollar missiles to kill $20,000 drones. Yet when one drone can damage a critical power plant, Ukraine also can't afford not to take them down.
Instead of bankrupting itself and running out of its missile stockpile, Russia can send swarms of cheap loitering munitions to run Ukraine's ammunition dry, making it more dependent on weapons from other countries, which Russia hopes have limited stamina for constant military aid.
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Ukraine still needs options to combat loitering munitions, including direct-fire anti-aircraft guns, which are cheaper per shot and can effectively defend a fixed point from slow-moving targets.
Germany's recently-delivered Flakpanzer Gepard guns have already distinguished themselves by taking down Iranian drones over Ukraine. However, these guns' range is even more limited than the missiles'.
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Ukraine's HIMARS and Bayraktar TB2 attacks are feared by Russia for their deadly accuracy.
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"We need to rethink our way of approaching the defense sector," said Borsari. "We don't have enough stocks of ammunition."
"That's why it's important for Europeans to create some joint production of ammo that can benefit all countries and supply Ukraine for the long haul," he added. "This is easier said than done."