MAY 12, 2023
Col Roman Kostenko on how nightly tactical operations are crucial to Kyiv’s preparation for a counteroffensive
www.theguardian.com
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Kostenko said the campaign was already unfolding in stages. The first involved the step-by-step elimination of Russia’s military potential, with strikes against logistical targets such as weapons depots and fuel dumps. This had begun, he said. A second stage involved seeking out and eliminating Russian command and control centres, causing a breakdown of communications with troops in the field. “That’s already happening too, probably,” he said.
Ukraine’s armed forces were unlikely to embark on a major frontal offensive until they had weakened Moscow’s battlefield capability, he indicated. “Our army won’t go forward until this preparation work is done. We can’t win if they have large amounts of ammunition and resources.” He acknowledged that Ukraine was playing a disinformation game about when and where it might strike, with signs that it was working, and that Moscow was beginning to panic.
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Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of Kherson’s regional military administration, said the Kremlin had abandoned plans to take more territory after its failure last year to seize Kyiv and its embarrassing retreat this week from the outskirts of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian forces advanced more than a mile. “The Russians are now trying to defend areas they already stole. They are not going forward. They are standing, and dying,” he said.
Prokudin said Ukraine had a good chance of fully liberating Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, where locals supported Kyiv, and “pro-Russians” were very small in number. The same was true of Crimea which he said had not undergone the same intensive Russification as Donetsk and Luhansk, the two eastern cities in effect controlled by Moscow since 2014, when Crimea was annexed. These eastern areas would be harder to free, he said, but added: “We’ll get there.”