Rusland en Oekraïne | Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
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FORMER NATO CHIEF DE HOOP SCHEFFER: I DO NOT FORESEE A WAR (the question was actually if he thought we were going to have a WWIII)
Today, 14:26Update: today, 15:11
Russian President Vladimir Putin is unpredictable as the leader of a large country with nuclear weapons. That says former NATO boss and Minister of State Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in BNR's Big Five. But, says the former secretary general, Putin also knows that using it means his own end. "I don't foresee a war." According to De Hoop Scheffer, NATO must quickly increase its military presence in the Baltic states.
De Hoop Scheffer calls the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'a turning point', Europe's own 9/11 moment after which everything will be different: from NATO's strategy to increased defense spending. The former NATO chief does not (yet) want to speak of a Third World War, but does point out that things will be completely different if 'Putin decides to put one toe on one square centimeter of NATO territory'.
"Then we have the next phase in the conflict, then NATO as a whole steps into action and then we talk about a completely different situation." According to De Hoop Scheffer, on a scale of 10 we are now at 7.5, in the event of an attack on NATO 'well over nine'.
full of revenge
Asked to what extent he thinks Putin still makes rational decisions, the minister of state says that rationality in Putin's head has given way to revisionism and rancor. He is petulant, resentful and full of vengeance, making him unpredictable as the leader of a large country with nuclear weapons. But he also knows that using it will mean the end.' De Hoop Scheffer therefore does not think that Putin is turning his nuclear threat with nuclear weapons into actual action.
This does not alter the fact that Putin's isolation as leader De Hoop Scheffer is a cause for concern. He went from being an autocrat to a dictator. He withdraws into isolation with a couple of advisers nodding yes, and that is very risqué.' According to the former NATO boss, who speaks from experience, every leader is in a bubble and at the same time every leader should be well aware of it. "Every leader has to watch out for that."
No war
Yet De Hoop Scheffer does not foresee a war. NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Putin knows that, which is why he is untruthful in his propaganda saying that NATO is threatening Russia. Incidentally, he says, Putin is more afraid of the European Union than of NATO. The Union stands for democracy, and that puts the ax to the roots of his regime. "Putin is afraid that Ukraine will become a kind of Poland."
Clumsy Von der Leyen (He did not say this)
Despite all the rhetoric from EU President Ursula von der Leyen, De Hoop Scheffer does not see EU membership for Ukraine happening any time soon. He says Ukraine is a corrupt country
(he didn't say this like this at all, there is a lot that they can do better, diplomatic wording) that is far from ready for any accession. He therefore qualified von der Leyen's comments that Ukraine should become a member of the Union more quickly as clumsy (no, that wasn't the wording, it sound very different when you translate straight up...it's like this but in Dutch another meaning/translation). 'That is not what it is about, but the Member States. And it is needlessly an additional irritation for Putin. Don't push him any further into a corner. As an EU, be as proactive as you can be, but talking about membership now is unwise. I think von der Leyen knows that now too.'
NATO strengthening Baltic countries
According to de Hoop Scheffer, NATO must quickly strengthen its military presence in the Baltic Sea region. He points to the so-called Suwalki Passage, a 100-kilometre strip of Poland connecting the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with its ally Belarus, thus forming the only land link between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO. "NATO must be there, if that Suwalki gap is closed, NATO will have a big problem and no more land access to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania."
New NATO paradigm
If Ukraine is 'rolled up' by Russia, NATO will be bordering a Russian-controlled area. According to De Hoop Scheffer, this means that the entire NATO strategy must be rewritten, although different parameters apply: every European country is aware that defense spending must increase, there is a renewed European solidarity and previously neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden consider joining NATO. The Finnish parliament has voted in favor of membership by a majority.
More NATO, more Europe
'We now need more NATO and more Europe.' According to De Hoop Scheffer, the ultimate security does come from Washington, but this is a 'serious wake-up call'. Because now there is a Biden in the White House, but will there be a Trump there later? "When the wall fell, we sat down in a beach chair with a glass of white wine and we outsourced the defense to the Americans." According to De Hoop Scheffer, we thought, in line with the writer Fukuyama, that we had reached the 'end of history'. "But history is back and we have to rewrite it."
The Chinese twist
Quite unexpectedly, China has offered to mediate in the conflict. It is clear to De Hoop Scheffer: China is upset with this conflict. 'China has its fingers in the door. This was already apparent in the Security Council, where the Chinese did not veto the resolution tabled by the Americans, but abstained from voting. China has no ambition and no need to get into a conflict with the EU. China as a superpower sees this with sorrow, it is an absolute novelty to utter these words. It's too early for that, but it's special. It indicates that China is concerned.'
Taiwan
According to De Hoop Scheffer, China is 'looking very closely' at Biden and the US to see how the Americans will solve this. Because in the background is the Taiwan issue. That's why Joe Biden has sent a senior delegation of former military and political leaders from both the Bush and Obama administrations to Taiwan to meet with the Taiwanese president. That is a warning and a reassurance at the same time. The warning to China is unequivocal: despite a war in Europe, we remain active in the Pacific. So China does not get a license to invade Taiwan. It is also reassuring to Japan and South Korea.
De-escalation via back channels
Finally, De Hoop Scheffer hopes that, as with the Cuban crisis in 1962, there will be a so-called 'back channel' where the US and Russia communicate directly with each other. 'A means must be found along back channels to de-escalate. You have to have a line between people who have access to the presidents. The major risk in this type of conflict is miscommunication. There must be de-escalation.'
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