Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #13

That would be awesome. I'm just not aware of the length of time before it becomes too difficult to extract any DNA.
Touch DNA tends to disappear very quickly due to environmental conditions & time. If the killer cut themselves or similar during the murder or moving the body, there might be a chance.
 
Touch DNA tends to disappear very quickly due to environmental conditions & time. If the killer cut themselves or similar during the murder or moving the body, there might be a chance.


Dried blood and DNA can be viable for many years if buried underground.

Even a minute sample that matches the alleged offender would probably be enough to provide the proof they need.

If she were shot, they could match the bullet with a known firearm
 
Here's a satellite map showing some of the key locations in this case
I’m thinking the path was more like this (yellow). Exit forest by back roads, go home, head to Enfield.

Makes me even wonder if the phone was chucked out the window like a footy whilst passing the dam on the return home. The phone may have been an afterthought and clocked his whole journey.
 

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I’m thinking the path was more like this (yellow). Exit forest by back roads, go home, head to Enfield.

Makes me even wonder if the phone was chucked out the window like a footy whilst passing the dam on the return home. The phone may have been an afterthought and clocked his whole journey.
Police took PS to, and searched, the Enfield State Park, not Enfield Plantation. Similar location, although not the same.
 

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Police took PS to, and searched, the Enfield State Park, not Enfield Plantation. Similar location, although not the same.
No, it's actually Enfield Plantation, it's just lazy reporting in the media.

"Patrick Orren Stephenson, 23, was taken from Melbourne Assessment Prison and walked through part of Enfield State Park, south of Ballarat, with plain clothes detectives.
Excavators were brought in to dig up an undisclosed area on a pine plantation"

There is of course no pine plantation to be found in Enfield State Park, because it is a state park. That area is eucalypt forest. Enfield Plantation adjoins the eastern side of Enfield State Park
As the name suggests, Enfield Plantation is the pine plantation they are referring to.
 
I’m thinking the path was more like this (yellow). Exit forest by back roads, go home, head to Enfield.

Makes me even wonder if the phone was chucked out the window like a footy whilst passing the dam on the return home.

He takes the dead body home first... to show his girlfriend what he's done?

I think you're right about the pot shot out the car window into the dam though.
It would probably need to be on his way back from Enfield, (heading north) since that would put the dam on the drivers side.
 
He takes the dead body home first... to show his girlfriend what he's done?

I think you're right about the pot shot out the car window into the dam though.
It would probably need to be on his way back from Enfield, (heading north) since that would put the dam on the drivers side.
Yep, that’s my guesstimate. Went straight from Canadian to Scotsburn through the back roads. Assumed normal. Parked the ute at home, saw the gf, didn’t show or tell the gf, had a nap, then went out and about, maybe in the gf’s car. Passed the golf course area around 5, and headed to Enfield. Drove back to Scotsburn via the dam. Lobbed the phone out the window and went home for an early night, and then off to work as usual early on Monday morn.
 
Police took PS to, and searched, the Enfield State Park, not Enfield Plantation. Similar location, although not the same.
Hard for any of us to say for sure as both have been under focus.

Enfield Plantation & Grenville Recreation Reserve search.

Last September there was a search at the Treloars Road & McKerral Rd intersection in Enfield Plantation.

The Plantation is closer to the dam and his home, so that site and route is feasible if needing to be efficient and avoid cctv.

I’ve always had the impression that the phone was an error. Forgotten or overlooked and discarded hastily. Something has tracked him, given up his movements hence the police zoning in on specific areas and succeeding with the dam, and it’s possibly Sam’s phone showing his route and stops.
 

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Veteran criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said certain inferences can be drawn from the latest update.



Though police have remained tight-lipped on the investigation, veteran criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said certain inferences can be drawn from the latest update.

Dr Watson-Munro said there are two possible reasons for leading Stephenson on a second walk-through.

'One possibility is that they don't have a lot of evidence. And, using the colloquial term, it's a bit of a shakedown,' he said.

You know, it's the whole audio visual trip, in many ways, to maybe put pressure on the accused person to give up more information.'

'You have well-trained people who would be looking for all sorts of cues in terms of [Stephenson's] body language, what he may or may not have said.'

The second, and more likely possibility, he said, is the police are acting on information not yet known to the public.

'I think it's more likely that the police, in fact, do have more information, and they're acting on that,' he said, adding it was impossible to know what form any new information may take.

'There's obviously some strategy behind it.'

In June of last year, police discovered Ms Murphy's credit cards, driver's licence and phone in near-perfect condition on the bank of a dam in Buninyong.

The discovery is considered by many the most significant public breakthrough in the investigation.

Dr Watson-Munro agreed for two reasons.

Firstly, the unlikely find suggested police had a 'broader spectrum of information than we're aware of'.

Secondly, he said it suggested there could be a third party involved - either in the crime itself or its aftermath.

'It suggests, possibly that [police] are of the view that there's a third party involved.

'Not necessarily involved in the commission of the crime, but somebody that may have assisted in terms of disposal of evidence and so on.

'The phone was in pristine condition, and it was close to the lake. Now the likelihood of that occurring, I think it's very remote view would normally predict natural degradation of anything like that.

The discovery is considered by many the most significant public breakthrough in the investigation.

Dr Watson-Munro agreed for two reasons.

Firstly, the unlikely find suggested police had a 'broader spectrum of information than we're aware of'.

Secondly, he said it suggested there could be a third party involved - either in the crime itself or its aftermath.

'It suggests, possibly that [police] are of the view that there's a third party involved.

'Not necessarily involved in the commission of the crime, but somebody that may have assisted in terms of disposal of evidence and so on.

'The phone was in pristine condition, and it was close to the lake. Now the likelihood of that occurring, I think it's very remote view would normally predict natural degradation of anything like that.

[Sharing the breakthrough with the public] builds momentum, but it also potentially puts pressure on third parties if they exist.'



 
Yep, that’s my guesstimate. Went straight from Canadian to Scotsburn through the back roads. Assumed normal. Parked the ute at home, saw the gf, didn’t show or tell the gf, had a nap, then went out and about, maybe in the gf’s car. Passed the golf course area around 5, and headed to Enfield. Drove back to Scotsburn via the dam. Lobbed the phone out the window and went home for an early night, and then off to work as usual early on Monday morn.

That's pretty risky. To leave a deceased person in a vehicle all day.

imo
 
That's pretty risky. To leave a deceased person in a vehicle all day.

imo
It sure would be & from where we’re standing it defies logic, especially given the heat and risk. It’s easy to assume the body was disposed of immediately.

Some of my doubts are due to:

1. He was caught easily
He left a trail - an “unprecedented” amount of evidence trail. He was on the police radar early and charged just a month later. Indicates a lack of planning & incompetence.

2. Incompetence
The only thing that appears to have been done well is the body disposal.
His age, his interests, his job, his fathers line of work, and his familiarity with the whole geographical area, should/would equip him with a strong knowledge & understanding of how to avoid detection. He didn’t evade detection and even Sam’s phone was found still in its case, undamaged and with her identification in it. This makes you wonder about impulsive & spontaneous decisions, rushing & haste, and a lack of thorough planning resulting in errors. Was he equipped or did he need to go and get tools etc?

3. Close relationships
It appears that he’s close physically & emotionally to his family, his gf and her family.

I doubt he had much spare time. His routine would have been known and quite predictable. He would have been monitored (in the nicest sense) by those around him, particularly the gf. A prolonged absence or deviation from the norm would have stood out to those around him.

He’d be aware that his gf (even parents) would be looking for him at some point soon. This would add pressure & haste, and the need to behave in a typical way and do typical things, ie being at home, eating, spending time together, napping, going out shopping or socialising.

He’d been out on the town the night before, and was allegedly in the Canadian Forest around 8am on Feb 2nd, 2024. He assumedly hadn’t been home yet, was assumedly alone or without his gf, and assumedly hadn’t had a full nights sleep.

He was a 22 year old living in a temporary house-minding situation with his 22 year old gf at Scotsburn. The gf’s family are believed to live next door to the home where Stephenson was living & arrested. It’s been reported that Stephenson was also living at times with his gf’s family next door and at his parents place in Mt Clear. The gf would be waiting & watching for his return.

Stephenson initially also tried to use a suppression order to protect his family and keep his father's name out of the press. His family are close and important. The gf and family are reportedly visiting him and supporting him in remand.

4. Time constraints
I don’t think he had a lot of time, and it was a Sunday and a hot Summer. If he did dispose of the body straight away then he would’ve been quite late home and very possibly looking a mess and needing to explain. I think that could have been more risky than heading straight home with the body in the ute.

The phone I think was remembered too late, and lobbed out the window from the driver window on the way back from Enfield. The phone potentially tracked the whole journey from Canadian to Enfield and to the dam, probably adding to the very public display of elation (to rattle the accused) when it was found.

All mine.
 
It sure would be & from where we’re standing it defies logic, especially given the heat and risk. It’s easy to assume the body was disposed of immediately.

Some of my doubts are due to:

1. He was caught easily
He left a trail - an “unprecedented” amount of evidence trail. He was on the police radar early and charged just a month later. Indicates a lack of planning & incompetence.

2. Incompetence
The only thing that appears to have been done well is the body disposal.
His age, his interests, his job, his fathers line of work, and his familiarity with the whole geographical area, should/would equip him with a strong knowledge & understanding of how to avoid detection. He didn’t evade detection and even Sam’s phone was found still in its case, undamaged and with her identification in it. This makes you wonder about impulsive & spontaneous decisions, rushing & haste, and a lack of thorough planning resulting in errors. Was he equipped or did he need to go and get tools etc?

3. Close relationships
It appears that he’s close physically & emotionally to his family, his gf and her family.

I doubt he had much spare time. His routine would have been known and quite predictable. He would have been monitored (in the nicest sense) by those around him, particularly the gf. A prolonged absence or deviation from the norm would have stood out to those around him.

He’d be aware that his gf (even parents) would be looking for him at some point soon. This would add pressure & haste, and the need to behave in a typical way and do typical things, ie being at home, eating, spending time together, napping, going out shopping or socialising.

He’d been out on the town the night before, and was allegedly in the Canadian Forest around 8am on Feb 2nd, 2024. He assumedly hadn’t been home yet, was assumedly alone or without his gf, and assumedly hadn’t had a full nights sleep.

He was a 22 year old living in a temporary house-minding situation with his 22 year old gf at Scotsburn. The gf’s family are believed to live next door to the home where Stephenson was living & arrested. It’s been reported that Stephenson was also living at times with his gf’s family next door and at his parents place in Mt Clear. The gf would be waiting & watching for his return.

Stephenson initially also tried to use a suppression order to protect his family and keep his father's name out of the press. His family are close and important. The gf and family are reportedly visiting him and supporting him in remand.

4. Time constraints
I don’t think he had a lot of time, and it was a Sunday and a hot Summer. If he did dispose of the body straight away then he would’ve been quite late home and very possibly looking a mess and needing to explain. I think that could have been more risky than heading straight home with the body in the ute.

The phone I think was remembered too late, and lobbed out the window from the driver window on the way back from Enfield. The phone potentially tracked the whole journey from Canadian to Enfield and to the dam, probably adding to the very public display of elation (to rattle the accused) when it was found.

All mine.

My feeling is that he probably disposed of Samantha right away, then went back in the later arvo and ensured he had covered his tracks, had hidden her well (and maybe hid her better), and took care of the other bits and pieces (phone etc).

I can't imagine him having a deceased person in his vehicle for a whole hot summer's day.

But you may be right. Maybe he needed to sober up (if he was inebriated) before driving further. Just in case he was pulled over by police with a body in his vehicle.

imo
 
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My feeling is that he probably disposed of Samantha right away, then went back in the later arvo and ensured he had covered his tracks, had hidden her well (and maybe hid her better), and took care of the other bits and pieces (phone etc).

I can't imagine him having a deceased person in his vehicle for a whole hot summer's day.

But you may be right. Maybe he needed to sober up (if he was inebriated) before driving further. Just in case he was pulled over by police with a body in his vehicle.

imo
Yep, good points SA. As you say, a quick offload may have occurred immediately and a return (maybe with a spade etc) to clean up took place later in the day.

Your sobering up point is really good. Avoiding further traffic dramas would have already been right up there on the priorities before, during and after that Sunday.

Any immediate disposal trip would have been 60 or so minutes of sheer adrenaline pumping looking-over-your-shoulder hell. The risk of getting caught on the road possibly still intoxicated, and knowing there’s a body in your tray, whilst your serious traffic offence from three months prior is still pending in court, would be terrifying.

I just would not be surprised at all if it comes out in a witness statement that the accused was seen fast asleep on the couch by 9.30am that morning.


,
 
Last edited:
Veteran criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said certain inferences can be drawn from the latest update.



Though police have remained tight-lipped on the investigation, veteran criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said certain inferences can be drawn from the latest update.

Dr Watson-Munro said there are two possible reasons for leading Stephenson on a second walk-through.

'One possibility is that they don't have a lot of evidence. And, using the colloquial term, it's a bit of a shakedown,' he said.

You know, it's the whole audio visual trip, in many ways, to maybe put pressure on the accused person to give up more information.'

'You have well-trained people who would be looking for all sorts of cues in terms of [Stephenson's] body language, what he may or may not have said.'

The second, and more likely possibility, he said, is the police are acting on information not yet known to the public.

'I think it's more likely that the police, in fact, do have more information, and they're acting on that,' he said, adding it was impossible to know what form any new information may take.

'There's obviously some strategy behind it.'

In June of last year, police discovered Ms Murphy's credit cards, driver's licence and phone in near-perfect condition on the bank of a dam in Buninyong.

The discovery is considered by many the most significant public breakthrough in the investigation.

Dr Watson-Munro agreed for two reasons.

Firstly, the unlikely find suggested police had a 'broader spectrum of information than we're aware of'.

Secondly, he said it suggested there could be a third party involved - either in the crime itself or its aftermath.

'It suggests, possibly that [police] are of the view that there's a third party involved.

'Not necessarily involved in the commission of the crime, but somebody that may have assisted in terms of disposal of evidence and so on.

'The phone was in pristine condition, and it was close to the lake. Now the likelihood of that occurring, I think it's very remote view would normally predict natural degradation of anything like that.

The discovery is considered by many the most significant public breakthrough in the investigation.

Dr Watson-Munro agreed for two reasons.

Firstly, the unlikely find suggested police had a 'broader spectrum of information than we're aware of'.

Secondly, he said it suggested there could be a third party involved - either in the crime itself or its aftermath.

'It suggests, possibly that [police] are of the view that there's a third party involved.

'Not necessarily involved in the commission of the crime, but somebody that may have assisted in terms of disposal of evidence and so on.

'The phone was in pristine condition, and it was close to the lake. Now the likelihood of that occurring, I think it's very remote view would normally predict natural degradation of anything like that.

[Sharing the breakthrough with the public] builds momentum, but it also potentially puts pressure on third parties if they exist.'



After chatting to an acquaintance who lived in Ballarat for 40 years ….if there were a third party involved could he be hesitant in giving up information in fear of reprisal.
 
After chatting to an acquaintance who lived in Ballarat for 40 years ….if there were a third party involved could he be hesitant in giving up information in fear of reprisal.
Its certainly a possibility. The notion of third party involvement in itself isn't so obscure. The phone being found in the Dam months after PS was taken into custody, and the likelihood that the body was taken away from Mt Clear and hidden elsewhere certainly opens that door. Moving a dead weight like that is surprisingly difficult.
But it's all just theories at this point, very little evidence is in the public domain.
 
It also brings up why her phone wasn't dumped with her body?

You're going to dump her body somewhere anyway, so why wouldn't you dump her phone with her?

It will save the police from getting evidence, and there's a risk of the offender being seen

That's why I think there is more to this, and possibly a third party involved.

I think it's safer for him at the moment to remain in jail and to keep quiet
 
Off the top of my head, I can think of at least two murders right away where the phone was not dumped with the body.


Borce Ristevski did not dump Karen's phone with her body. Her phone last pinged somewhere along the route to Mount Macedon and police never found her phone.

Twenty-six minutes into the drive, Ristevski turned off his mobile phone to avoid being traced. Within an hour of leaving the house, Karen’s mobile telephone was also deactivated. He disposed of her telephone, handbag and wallet, which have never been found.
Calculated moves? Borce Ristevski's steps after he killed Karen


Adrian Bayley did not dump Jill Meagher's phone with her body.

When asked what he did with Ms Meagher's phone, Bayley told detectives: "I smashed that at home, in the driveway."
Jill Meagher's mobile phone proved the vital clue for police tracking down accused Adrian Ernest Bayley
 
Off the top of my head, I can think of at least two murders right away where the phone was not dumped with the body.


Borce Ristevski did not dump Karen's phone with her body. Her phone last pinged somewhere along the route to Mount Macedon and police never found her phone.

Twenty-six minutes into the drive, Ristevski turned off his mobile phone to avoid being traced. Within an hour of leaving the house, Karen’s mobile telephone was also deactivated. He disposed of her telephone, handbag and wallet, which have never been found.
Calculated moves? Borce Ristevski's steps after he killed Karen


Adrian Bayley did not dump Jill Meagher's phone with her body.

When asked what he did with Ms Meagher's phone, Bayley told detectives: "I smashed that at home, in the driveway."
Jill Meagher's mobile phone proved the vital clue for police tracking down accused Adrian Ernest Bayley
Yeah, disposing of a phone with a body seems pretty risky, unless you've totally destroyed it, given technology today that allows them to be discovered remotely.

MOO
 

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