Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #3

[otto]

We know exactly where she was supposed to be so either she’s on that route but hidden, or she had a change of plan that she couldn’t communicate as no signal (or no phone).

We’ll probably never know until she’s found.

In her last communications, she was clear about her plans. Either she had an accident on that route, prior to arriving at the refuge, or she is voluntarily disappeared.

"an individual that Esther met on 19th November came forward to say he had specifically suggested this route through France, between Port de Venasque and Port de la Glere, to Esther when he met her"
...

"Her plans for the night of 22nd November, which she had shared with her partner Dan Colegate and several other witnesses (see below), was to proceed down to the border crossing at Port de Venasque and to spend the night at Refuge de Venasque, an unstaffed shelter on the French side of the border."​

22nd November 15:29 – Returns to Pic de Sauvegarde

15:31 – “Not much signal in this area sorry” “I’m on a col/peak so can’t stop for too long but wanted you to know. Can’t wait to read all your messages. Thank you . “Love you very much having a really good time.”
15:41 – Sends 2 selfies.
16:04: “I’m heading off now…Maybe have signal but not sure. Sorry. I think I can see you !!!”
16:06: “Still in the same area. Tomorrow heading for Port de le Glere or something spelt like that. Might dip into France. Hoping Refuge Venasque has a winter room. Keep you posted when can xx”
​

Dossier

 

[CoverMeCagney]

In her last communications, she was clear about her plans. Either she had an accident on that route, prior to arriving at the refuge, or she is voluntarily disappeared.

"an individual that Esther met on 19th November came forward to say he had specifically suggested this route through France, between Port de Venasque and Port de la Glere, to Esther when he met her"
...

"Her plans for the night of 22nd November, which she had shared with her partner Dan Colegate and several other witnesses (see below), was to proceed down to the border crossing at Port de Venasque and to spend the night at Refuge de Venasque, an unstaffed shelter on the French side of the border."​

22nd November 15:29 – Returns to Pic de Sauvegarde

15:31 – “Not much signal in this area sorry” “I’m on a col/peak so can’t stop for too long but wanted you to know. Can’t wait to read all your messages. Thank you . “Love you very much having a really good time.”
15:41 – Sends 2 selfies.
16:04: “I’m heading off now…Maybe have signal but not sure. Sorry. I think I can see you !!!”
16:06: “Still in the same area. Tomorrow heading for Port de le Glere or something spelt like that. Might dip into France. Hoping Refuge Venasque has a winter room. Keep you posted when can xx”
​

Dossier

A third option though, is that she decided to head home, and has had an accident off route (ie on the glacier) same day or next day. That is working on the assumption there was no signal on the new route, or less likely, something happened like she accidentally dropped her phone off a mountain and didn’t want to proceed without it.

Like I say, we won’t know for sure unless/until she’s found.

 

[otto]

I lean towards voluntarily disappeared for several reasons.

We know that she was not in the best state of mind, having expressed concerns about the future of her 18 year relationship. She had postponed returning to her partner, extending her solo trip several times. Witnesses confirmed that she did not have enough provisions for her trip plans.

She climbed the summit Nov 21 and did not continue with her trip plan even though she was at the summit at 1 PM with ample time to hike to the refuge. She climbed the summit again on Nov 22, but this time so late in the day that it surprised other hikers.

She arrived at the summit, stated she couldn't stop too long, but remained there from 3:30 - 4:10. She spoke to Dan, and presumably her parents (3:40 - 4:04), during that time.

She said the plan was to go to the refuge, which is in France, and then claimed she "might dip into France." She seemed unaware of circumstances at the refuge, unaware that there is a winter room. That suggests that she had not researched the refuge prior to the trip. If she planned to go there, it's common sense that she would have looked at the refuge website so she knew what to expect.

There's no trace of her after those communications at the Pic de Sauvegarde. There's no evidence that she arrived at the Refuge de Venasque.

 

[Grouse]

<snipped for focus>
She climbed the summit Nov 21 and did not continue with her trip plan even though she was at the summit at 1 PM with ample time to hike to the refuge.

BBM - maybe I missed something, do we know what her trip was plan for Nov 21? The trip plans in the dossier (pages 9,10 and 14) are labelled "22/11/20" and "23/11/20". I can't find anything about plans for 21st, only that she stayed at Cabane de la Besurtas. Are you saying Refuge de Venasque was meant to be 21st and she postponed?

 

[otto]

BBM - maybe I missed something, do we know what her trip was plan for Nov 21? The trip plans in the dossier (pages 9,10 and 14) are labelled "22/11/20" and "23/11/20". I can't find anything about plans for 21st, only that she stayed at Cabane de la Besurtas. Are you saying Refuge de Venasque was meant to be 21st and she postponed?

Cabane de la Besurtas is not on the trip plan. The plan was to hike to the summit and then to the refuge - per maps.

She hiked to the summit on Nov 21, arrived at 1 PM. Then, for whatever reason, she remained in Spain near the summit at the Cabane de la Besurtas rather than continue to the Refuge de Venasque in France.

It might be something as simple as not having enough provisions for the trip - that she hoped someone was at the Cabane de la Besurtas who could share food. The next time she met someone, she asked for food.

I do think that the plan was to go from the summit to the refuge on Nov 21, but she changed her mind. The following day, she had a very late start to the day. She most likely went back to the summit for cell service at 3:30 PM and remained there for 40 minutes.

The hike from the summit to the Port de Venasque is 30 minutes. It would be 4:40 PM. The hike from the Port de Venasque to the Refuge de Venasque is 30 minutes. It would be 5:10 PM. She had 15 minutes until sunset, but she was in the shadows of the mountains after crossing into France at the Port de Venasque.

"Daylight: Sunset in Toulouse this day was at 17:23 i.e. Esther had over an hour of good daylight left and it wouldn’t have been totally dark until closer to 6 p.m. "​

Nov 21
10:08 – Sends Dan photographs of her map to specify the area she will be hiking in.

These maps are included in the dossier, do not specifically state that either map is from Esther.

Summit to Refuge

Refuge to Port de la Glere

 

[Grouse]

<snipped for focus>
I do think that the plan was to go from the summit to the refuge on Nov 21, but she changed her mind.

BBM Ah OK , so it's a theory then. Thanks for clarifying (thought I'd missed something).

 

[otto]

BBM Ah OK , so it's a theory then. Thanks for clarifying (thought I'd missed something).

I'm looking at the maps and do not see a plan to stay at the Cabane de la Besurtas, yet we know that she stayed there.

What do you understand of the trip plan based on the date that she sent the maps that are included in the dossier?

 

[stmarysmead]

My feeling is that Esther’s earlier plans were vague. Maybe deliberately vague.

The way I interpret Dan’s words and the snippets of conversations they had...is that he did not know where she was the night before. In fact, he’d sent many texts that she claimed to have been unable to read until she reached the Pic. I have been curious to know whether it is actual true that she had no WiFi until the peak. Remember she had a lot of unaccounted time, only starting her ascent very late. So was there never...any WiFi...in any area she was in or area she trekked...in order to message Dan before the Pic?

Or was that an excuse because she had her own reasons to not want contact?

If so, how can we be sure how far she got the that day or the next day or in what direction? Maybe she did reach the good WiFi area and just didn’t want contact.

 

[otto]

My feeling is that Esther’s earlier plans were vague. Maybe deliberately vague.

The way I interpret Dan’s words and the snippets of conversations they had...is that he did not know where she was the night before. In fact, he’d sent many texts that she claimed to have been unable to read until she reached the Pic. I have been curious to know whether it is actual true that she had no WiFi until the peak. Remember she had a lot of unaccounted time, only starting her ascent very late. So was there never...any WiFi...in any area she was in or area she trekked...in order to message Dan before the Pic?

Or was that an excuse because she had her own reasons to not want contact?

If so, how can we be sure how far she got the that day or the next day or in what direction? Maybe she did reach the good WiFi area and just didn’t want contact.

If the maps she sent are not reliable, and her knowledge of the proposed hike was non-existent, then what was her actual plan?

 

[stmarysmead]

I don’t think anyone knows her plan.

From the dossier...
Evening – Spends the night alone at Cabana de la Besurtas on the Spanish side (Esther had no phone signal once she left the peak, but she confirmed this the following day when she returned to Pic de Sauvegarde).

Dan did not hear from her from around midday the day before. This sounds to me that he didn’t know where she was until “she confirmed” her stay at the Cabana the next day, over 24 hours later.

 

[otto]

I don’t think anyone knows her plan.

From the dossier...
Evening – Spends the night alone at Cabana de la Besurtas on the Spanish side (Esther had no phone signal once she left the peak, but she confirmed this the following day when she returned to Pic de Sauvegarde).

Dan did not hear from her from around midday the day before. This sounds to me that he didn’t know where she was until “she confirmed” her stay at the Cabana the next day, over 24 hours later.

I agree, which brings up the question of why she stayed at the Cabana de la Besurtas since it is not on any of the maps in the dossier.

She was at the summit at 1 PM on Nov 21. Her partner must have thought that she was travelling to the refuge and that she would again be in cell service range about 30-45 minutes after leaving the refuge on the morning of Nov 22. Those assumptions would be based on her trip plan and map that she sent him at 10 AM on Nov 21.

Her next communication was at 3:30 PM on Nov 22, again from the summit. Her partner shared texts that she stated a plan to hike from the summit to the refuge after 4:10 PM.

 

[Grouse]

<snipped for focus>
What do you understand of the trip plan based on the date that she sent the maps that are included in the dossier?

My take on this is from the the dossier is that there wasn't a fixed plan. I think "Sends Dan photographs of her map to specify the area (BBM) she will be hiking in" implies just that - map of the general area she would be in not a planned route. As I think it was @RickshawFan who pointed out, the routes in the dossier looked like they were taken from guide books.

 

[otto]

My take on this is from the the dossier is that there wasn't a fixed plan. I think "Sends Dan photographs of her map to specify the area (BBM) she will be hiking in" implies just that - map of the general area she would be in not a planned route. As I think it was @RickshawFan who pointed out, the routes in the dossier looked like they were taken from guide books.

From the dossier:

"an individual that Esther met on 19th November came forward to say he had specifically suggested this route through France, between Port de Venasque and Port de la Glere, to Esther when he met her"​

She had physical and virtual maps. The routes seem to come from this, or similar, trail site:

Le Port de Venasque

If the map and trip plan were not specific, her partner would not know which of two trails she planned to take from the refuge to the Port de la Glere. Two maps are included in the dossier with clear trail options, and her partner states that she sent him maps on Nov 21 at 10AM.

The problem I see is that she stayed at the Cabana in Spain overnight on Nov 21 and that is not indicated on either of the maps in the dossier.

 

[Grouse]

The problem I see is that she stayed at the Cabana in Spain overnight on Nov 21 and that is not indicated on either of the maps in the dossier.

I see your point Otto. My thinking is that the planning seems not to have been too rigid up front but that DC was generally kept well informed what was going on via phone calls/whatsapp and it wasn't necessarily a problem.I've also not been particularly concerned about things like whether ED paid in advance to stay at deserted refuges, cos I don't think in the current climate anyone would have been too bothered, and plans might change etc. She might arrive at one and decide it's not for her and decide to camp or move on. And if she chose to stay she could always pay after I imagine. I have noticed that aspect seems to concern you though and I'm not sure I fully understand why.

 

[Satchie]

BBM - maybe I missed something, do we know what her trip was plan for Nov 21? The trip plans in the dossier (pages 9,10 and 14) are labelled "22/11/20" and "23/11/20". I can't find anything about plans for 21st, only that she stayed at Cabane de la Besurtas. Are you saying Refuge de Venasque was meant to be 21st and she postponed?

IMO the dossier was compiled to aid in locating her after she disappeared on the 22nd, so it's likely that whether and what she planned for the 21st, or any day previous, was left out as irrelevant and distracting.

IMO the important points are what she actually did, ie establish baseline facts that are known to be true, and then lay out what she planned after she left the pic, after her last contact.

ETA, to clarify on this basis, a selection of documents were made, as to what to include in the dossier, and what to leave out.

 

[Satchie]

She said the plan was to go to the refuge, which is in France, and then claimed she "might dip into France."

RS&B by me.

I find this intriguing. IMO Esther was perfectly well aware she was technically crossing the border to stay at the refuge and then hike the half-circle on the mountain plateau to Port de la Glere. She was not a fool.

IMO 'dipping into France' would imply actually going past the mountain plateau and visiting one or other of the villages/towns that border the mountaineous no-man's land. Such as Bagnères-de-Luchon.

For the rest of your post, Otto, I get an impression of German orderliness and efficiency becoming maddened by the intuitive, exploratory, and indecisive manner of Esther's wanderings.

IMO, if she didn't really know what she wanted to do, she would hang around and wait for inspiration. Also, she may have been feeling trepidation about her planned route, because she would likely be isolated for days.

 

[otto]

I see your point Otto. My thinking is that the planning seems not to have been too rigid up front but that DC was generally kept well informed what was going on via phone calls/whatsapp and it wasn't necessarily a problem.I've also not been particularly concerned about things like whether ED paid in advance to stay at deserted refuges, cos I don't think in the current climate anyone would have been too bothered, and plans might change etc. She might arrive at one and decide it's not for her and decide to camp or move on. And if she chose to stay she could always pay after I imagine. I have noticed that aspect seems to concern you though and I'm not sure I fully understand why.

One indicator of back country travel, particularly when a hiker is missing, is sign-in and payment at back country hostels. No sign-in and no payment means that she did not arrive at the Refuge de Venasque. Covid does not mean that overnight accommodations are free - everyone knows that.

If it was her habit to cheat the system, and I'm not saying it was, but if it was, her partner has to say so as it could relate to her whereabouts.

Her trip was specific, per the trail marked on this map (see dossier). This is not the only route that she could take between the refuge and Port de Glere. Her partner knew her exact trip plan. At the same time, Esther seemed unaware that the refuge is in France and that the refuge has a Winter room.

 

[otto]

RS&B by me.

I find this intriguing. IMO Esther was perfectly well aware she was technically crossing the border to stay at the refuge and then hike the half-circle on the mountain plateau to Port de la Glere. She was not a fool.

IMO 'dipping into France' would imply actually going past the mountain plateau and visiting one or other of the villages/towns that border the mountaineous no-man's land. Such as Bagnères-de-Luchon.

For the rest of your post, Otto, I get an impression of German orderliness and efficiency becoming maddened by the intuitive, exploratory, and indecisive manner of Esther's wanderings.

IMO, if she didn't really know what she wanted to do, she would hang around and wait for inspiration. Also, she may have been feeling trepidation about her planned route, because she would likely be isolated for days.

I'm actually trying to unravel what we can know based on what she said and did.

She was going to "dip into France" after crossing the border into France. She planned to stay at the Refuge de Venasque but had not look at the refuge website - she didn't know that there was a Winter room.

Dan has shared maps that he presumably received Nov 21. I doubt that we've seen the actual maps, that insteadDan located similar maps and used them in the dossier. I base this on the fact that neither of the maps state that they came from Esther.

Here's another example with mixed information. There is one author, and he has copyright on the material. However, the next paragraph mentions "authors." Esther is an editor, not an author.

So much ambiguity for people who gravitate towards economics and chemistry - neither of which have room for ambiguity.

https://www.amazon.ca/What-Adventures-Shall-Have-Today/dp/B08BDYYLGL

 

[Satchie]

Esther seemed unaware that the refuge is in France and that the refuge has a Winter room.

I disagree with your interpretation, as per my comment above about the meaning of 'dipping into France', as being more than technically crossing the border.

Also, if you travel you discover the internet is frequently unreliable in terms of just about everything. Especially with Covid 19, previous arrangements may have been cancelled, with no one bothering to update web pages. I too would worry about what I might encounter when heading off on my own to stay overnight in the middle of nowhere, with cold weather coming on.

IMO she was feeling nervous, and expressing that.

 

[Puzzles]

I will not be surprised if we learn ED is alive and with the hiker who gave her a lift on November 19th.