Thank you.Welcome, Onlinesleuth, and thank you for a discerning, pithy evaluation of this case.
Thank you for the kind welcome. I hope for all involved in the case that a quality investigation is taking place and the matter is resolved so that everyone can move on.Welcome, Onlinesleuth, and thank you for a discerning, pithy evaluation of this case.
snipped for focus**DOGS 2: Where were ED/DC’s own 5 dogs during all this? Who was caring for them? Had they already been given away in England? (I read that somewhere). This has a bearing on the circumstances from both a situational (who was feeding them/walking them) and a psychological point of view (if they’d been given away it suggests ‘tying up loose ends’) - and also it would have probably been upsetting. Why would they have given the dogs away if they were applying for residency and planning to remain in France, as DC claimed?
snipped for focusWhen I came up with that idea, I had a little different scenario. If I were going up the Pic, I would drop off my full pack at the Port, perhaps taking the lid with a few necessities including water. Unladen, I could scamper up the Pic quick as a whip.
Thanks, otto. A few more thoughts on this scenario - simply an attempt to model whether the data we have could fit a scenario of voluntary disappearance...That makes a lot of sense, and it is something I wondered about in the beginning - whether she was meeting someone at the Refuge de Venasque who was climbing from Hospice de France. Put these two maps together and they meet in the middle. The person I suspected when I considered the idea was the man she met on Nov 19, however this person has come forward and did share the fact that he recommended the Port de Venasque to Port de la Glere route. This is not a route that Esther had on her bucket list, but rather a suggestion from stranger 2 days earlier. Excluding him, that leaves online dating in the Pyrenees and strangers, which seems unlikely. It does explain her unusual timing - you describe a kind of hesitancy and I agree. That's one interpretation for the timeline.
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Thanks, otto. A few more thoughts on this scenario - simply an attempt to model whether the data we have could fit a scenario of voluntary disappearance...
1. The route map from the Dossier that you have pointed out strangely starts at the Refuge de Vanesque (and not where ED started on 22/11 or 21/11), could have been a map the 19/11 hiker shared with ED or a map ED and a third party could have exchanged as part of their planning to meet at the Refuge, and just easy to send to DC.
2. From what I've learned from ED's social media, she met up with several hikers to hike together over her month of solo venturing. So I think she made friends (other than 19/11 hiker) along the way. LE would have any records of communication between ED and these people, including maybe an old friend from ED's past?
3. Like you, I had also thought if someone met ED at Refuge de Vanesque that person could have come from Hospice de France (and ED might have been able to see them from the summit of pic de Sauvegarde). If we play this scenario out then, would you think they would have returned to the Hospice and then on to Luchon, etc.?
4. Lastly, this to me is very interesting... when I was doing a Google search for one of onlinesleuth's observations (as she suggested we d0) I found an old DM article that I am not sure I had ever seen. Or.... reading it again with a different lens brought out a bunch of nuggets that I found intriguing. Just ignore the maps! Anyhow, in this article, there is a lengthy description of the ED - Ballarin encounter. And here is something that caught my eye: "...and in her conversation with Mr Ballarin – conducted in French because she spoke no Spanish and he no English – she appeared to suggest she was considering crossing the Pyrenees into France. She said she was going to French town of Bagneres de Luchon and mentioned the city of Toulouse." So is this what ED meant when she said to DC "I might dip into France" (aka cross the Pyrenees into France)? Had she planned to go to Luchon as she told Ballarin and per this scenario? I know we question language barriers, but...
Esther Dingley: Police believe missing hiker went missing voluntarily
Indeed, yes LE stated forensics I believe but there was some discussion around that claim as the dog walker who reported it had stated she saw the person in the van lying down sleeping or resting. There was very little reported after that..Didn't LE confirm it was one of their people in the van?
Going back briefly to the "I think I can see you!!" Comment, having re looked at Google earth I realised just how close Arreau, where DC was house sitting, is to the area ED was. So I'd agree with Otto, it probably was a visual phase of looking across to France where Dan was, this makes sense, especially on such a clear sunny day as it was from the top of pic De s.That's a good point, I'd forgotten ED had used that phrase previously. Perhaps they have "named" peaks or points after each other, something personal between themselves that only they understood. Im thinking the accident/lake or voluntary disappearance appear the most feasible explanations based on the given facts.
Thanks for this post- so reasonable, rational and refreshingly direct.A criminal investigation by the authorities would include firstly checking who directly benefits from EDs disappearance (did she have life insurance, valuables, vehicles or other property?), who is her legal next of kin (perhaps not a ‘boyfriend’ but more likely a ‘long term partner’), monitoring the movements of those closest to ED before/during/since her disappearance, analysing the statements of those who they’ve interviewed about ED’s disappearance (including on camera body language/facial micro-expressions) and any anomalies, checking available CCTV in the towns she mentioned, checking both day and night traffic CCTV on routes to where she was hiking (were the borders manned because of lockdown, or not?), checking signals, usage, online searches and other activity on the phones of those she was known to have been in contact with before her disappearance, checking the condition, mileage and status of any vehicles/bicycles/hiking equipment owned by those she was in contact with... It may be taking a long time to put all the jigsaw pieces together to build a case against someone and just because it’s all gone quiet doesn’t mean the authorities aren’t working quietly and very methodically behind the scenes - they’ve indicated it’s now a criminal enquiry therefore they’re obliged to conduct a thorough investigation - and they’ll certainly not be publishing the minutiae of their every movement online for WS and social media users to pore over and dissect.
*Re the content of EDs personal social media account, the fact she left it public rather than private I view as ‘a cry for help’. Psychologically, it’s very difficult to play the part of ‘happy camper’ while clearly suffering from depression. I believe she was sick of the pretence/cognitive dissonance (can lead to even worse depression and/or physical illness) and wanted it to be known by all those who were aware of her separate account that she was actually desperately unhappy. Only DC knows why he’s insisting there were no issues between them when it’s clear to all that there were, and recently, going by the content on his separate social media account too. If he was being honest, he’d tell it as it is... the fact he’s denying any issues is what raises suspicion. It’s also strange that she was the ‘happiest he’d ever seen her’ when she was away from him...
** DC’s ‘LEGS GAVE WAY BENEATH HIM’: When DC ‘went to search on his own’, if SAR had any suspicions/concerns at all then he’d most likely have been covertly monitored - did they come across him sitting down instead of searching? Is that why he felt the need to mention ‘his legs gave way’ at all? That comment immediately jumped out at me.
**DOGS: I believe the mountain dog search was halted because (alarmingly) tracks/scent stopped in a very particular place and didn’t lead beyond, so there was no point in them being brought in to search the refuge itself. However, that particular spot was searched high and low by SAR and the dogs... so, very odd.
**DOGS 2: Where were ED/DC’s own 5 dogs during all this? Who was caring for them? Had they already been given away in England? (I read that somewhere). This has a bearing on the circumstances from both a situational (who was feeding them/walking them) and a psychological point of view (if they’d been given away it suggests ‘tying up loose ends’) - and also it would have probably been upsetting. Why would they have given the dogs away if they were applying for residency and planning to remain in France, as DC claimed?
If ED’s disappearance was simply down to an accident or even suicide, I don’t think we’d all be poring over this as we are. It’s because something isn’t right and subconsciously we know it.
Indeed, yes LE stated forensics I believe but there was some discussion around that claim as the dog walker who reported it had stated she saw the person in the van lying down sleeping or resting. There was very little reported after that..
Going back briefly to the "I think I can see you!!" Comment, having re looked at Google earth I realised just how close Arreau, where DC was house sitting, is to the area ED was. So I'd agree with Otto, it probably was a visual phase of looking across to France where Dan was, this makes sense, especially on such a clear sunny day as it was from the top of pic De s.
Thank you for clarifying, apologies all for unnecessary confusion.He was not house sitting in Arreau, he was (still is?) in Larroque sur l’Osse, which is around 150 miles / 4 hours away from where Esther went missing.
Source: the dossier
You are a new member and as such have brought startling new insight, thank you. But you sound so well informed on this from such a different and convincing perspective that I suspect you are from EDs family or a friend of hers from back home? We are so sad about her disappearance and want to help but as you say, all the real detail we don’t have, but I do feel we are, like you, feeling it wasn’t an accident. So sad as she appears from her very very personal Facebook postings to have been such a lovely sole and in need of help from her 6 years of wandering, but there was no one to help her. Makes me well up just thinking about it. The isolation for months adventuring in the mountains with only one other person, the dogs not around, the cooped-up camper van with no where to breath,.... if only she had rang a help line :-(A criminal investigation by the authorities would include firstly checking who directly benefits from EDs disappearance (did she have life insurance, valuables, vehicles or other property?), who is her legal next of kin (perhaps not a ‘boyfriend’ but more likely a ‘long term partner’), monitoring the movements of those closest to ED before/during/since her disappearance, analysing the statements of those who they’ve interviewed about ED’s disappearance (including on camera body language/facial micro-expressions) and any anomalies, checking available CCTV in the towns she mentioned, checking both day and night traffic CCTV on routes to where she was hiking (were the borders manned because of lockdown, or not?), checking signals, usage, online searches and other activity on the phones of those she was known to have been in contact with before her disappearance, checking the condition, mileage and status of any vehicles/bicycles/hiking equipment owned by those she was in contact with... It may be taking a long time to put all the jigsaw pieces together to build a case against someone and just because it’s all gone quiet doesn’t mean the authorities aren’t working quietly and very methodically behind the scenes - they’ve indicated it’s now a criminal enquiry therefore they’re obliged to conduct a thorough investigation - and they’ll certainly not be publishing the minutiae of their every movement online for WS and social media users to pore over and dissect.
*Re the content of EDs personal social media account, the fact she left it public rather than private I view as ‘a cry for help’. Psychologically, it’s very difficult to play the part of ‘happy camper’ while clearly suffering from depression. I believe she was sick of the pretence/cognitive dissonance (can lead to even worse depression and/or physical illness) and wanted it to be known by all those who were aware of her separate account that she was actually desperately unhappy. Only DC knows why he’s insisting there were no issues between them when it’s clear to all that there were, and recently, going by the content on his separate social media account too. If he was being honest, he’d tell it as it is... the fact he’s denying any issues is what raises suspicion. It’s also strange that she was the ‘happiest he’d ever seen her’ when she was away from him...
** DC’s ‘LEGS GAVE WAY BENEATH HIM’: When DC ‘went to search on his own’, if SAR had any suspicions/concerns at all then he’d most likely have been covertly monitored - did they come across him sitting down instead of searching? Is that why he felt the need to mention ‘his legs gave way’ at all? That comment immediately jumped out at me.
**DOGS: I believe the mountain dog search was halted because (alarmingly) tracks/scent stopped in a very particular place and didn’t lead beyond, so there was no point in them being brought in to search the refuge itself. However, that particular spot was searched high and low by SAR and the dogs... so, very odd.
**DOGS 2: Where were ED/DC’s own 5 dogs during all this? Who was caring for them? Had they already been given away in England? (I read that somewhere). This has a bearing on the circumstances from both a situational (who was feeding them/walking them) and a psychological point of view (if they’d been given away it suggests ‘tying up loose ends’) - and also it would have probably been upsetting. Why would they have given the dogs away if they were applying for residency and planning to remain in France, as DC claimed?
If ED’s disappearance was simply down to an accident or even suicide, I don’t think we’d all be poring over this as we are. It’s because something isn’t right and subconsciously we know it.
Thank you for clarifying, apologies all for unnecessary confusion.
<snipped for focus>
**DOGS: I believe the mountain dog search was halted because (alarmingly) tracks/scent stopped in a very particular place and didn’t lead beyond, so there was no point in them being brought in to search the refuge itself. However, that particular spot was searched high and low by SAR and the dogs... so, very odd.
<snipped for focus and bolded by me>
Also, DC approached the BBC re doing an interview, rather than the BBC requesting it of him
If I was investigating, I’d be homing in and checking why DC deleted certain social media posts after ED went missing,
Do you have any information to back these two assertions up? Again I have seen nothing published about these.
I saw it written somewhere that DC had ‘cleaned up’ FB by deleting some posts on their joint account.
The (total) transcript of the interview with the BBC has words along the line of ‘why did you want to speak to us today’ mentioning also that DC approached the network, rather than the other way around. Clearly, I haven’t been able to note down every single point in the case, but if I come across them again then I’ll post the direct quote here.