Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #5

[RickshawFan]

Yeah, there's a lot up thread isn't there?

What do I think? Well I already gave my views on the delay in reporting. As for all the stuff about experience levels, using the tent as a bivvy bag etc, that's all been covered ad nauseam up thread as well with a lot of expert hiking views on display. While I don't disagree with some of the views (particularly on the nutrition side if the Lithuanian girl's account of rations has been accurately reported), I do think too much has been made of that angle and that ED was more than capable of making these kind of trips given the clemency of the weather for the time of year. MOO.

ETA: I would have thought we might have heard a bit more about the searches going on by now, particularly about the lakes.

I believe we have heard that the searches commenced for the year—the Spaniards were doing the search as military training exercises—but I wouldn’t expect there to be updates. At this point—indeed, within a few days of going missing—LE was looking at recovery, not rescue. The busy season has started. Rescues will be taking priority, and there will be many.
Personally, I think it’s unfair to expect continued personnel, time, equipment outlays from either French or Spanish LE when they can use those resources to save (other people’s) lives.


It is not rare for hikers to go missing. Recovery is a lower priority than rescue and would take place when (low) risk levels permit. It’s often forgotten that S&R are at substantial risk themselves every time they go out.
When you go to the mountains, you take risks. Experienced hikers don’t assume they can or will be rescued if they have an accident unless they think the world revolves around them.
The array of risks in this case have been highlighted upthread, and were astronomical, not least because there was no one else there for miles around. The odds of a rescue rather than a recovery were always very low. IMO. I think we need to follow LE’s statements to the letter about what to expect, and to respect their experienced decisions regarding recovery. They seem to think even recovery odds are low. Expecting any allocation of their resources at this point is unfair and puts (living but injured) others at high risk.

If you’re not familiar with how S&R makes decisions and how soon rescue searches are terminated for the protection of everyone, look up the rescue and recovery missions on Mount Rainier. They recover bodies but generally don’t search for them. Other hikers come upon them, sometimes years later. This is exactly what LE was saying from the get-go. You gotta weigh risks vs benefits. Recovery is no reward, but can be very high risk.
In short, I think the notion that search details should or would be forthcoming is asking too much, no matter how much we’d all like to complete ED’s story. IMO

 

[Grouse]

I believe we have heard that the searches commenced for the year—the Spaniards were doing the search as military training exercises—but I wouldn’t expect there to be updates. At this point—indeed, within a few days of going missing—LE was looking at recovery, not rescue. The busy season has started. Rescues will be taking priority, and there will be many.
Personally, I think it’s unfair to expect continued personnel, time, equipment outlays from either French or Spanish LE when they can use those resources to save (other people’s) lives.


It is not rare for hikers to go missing. Recovery is a lower priority than rescue and would take place when (low) risk levels permit. It’s often forgotten that S&R are at substantial risk themselves every time they go out.
When you go to the mountains, you take risks. Experienced hikers don’t assume they can or will be rescued if they have an accident unless they think the world revolves around them.
The array of risks in this case have been highlighted upthread, and were astronomical, not least because there was no one else there for miles around. The odds of a rescue rather than a recovery were always very low. IMO. I think we need to follow LE’s statements to the letter about what to expect, and to respect their experienced decisions regarding recovery. They seem to think even recovery odds are low. Expecting any allocation of their resources at this point is unfair and puts (living but injured) others at high risk.

If you’re not familiar with how S&R makes decisions and how soon rescue searches are terminated for the protection of everyone, look up the rescue and recovery missions on Mount Rainier. They recover bodies but generally don’t search for them. Other hikers come upon them, sometimes years later. This is exactly what LE was saying from the get-go. You gotta weigh risks vs benefits. Recovery is no reward, but can be very high risk.
In short, I think the notion that search details should or would be forthcoming is asking too much, no matter how much we’d all like to complete ED’s story. IMO

Yeah, I get that about rescue taking priority over recovery, it was covered a lot earlier in the thread. When the searches resumed recently it was explicitly mentioned that the lakes would be checked though, so I thought we might have heard something on that particular aspect.

Not sure if anyone has posted a link this new(ish) BBC article yet, I only just saw it - Esther Dingley: Partner vows to keep searching for missing hiker . It contains some new statements from Dan about his own searches, and also this statement which now makes me wonder if the lakes even will be searched - "The only unexplored areas are the handful of lakes in the area, but these are typically crystal clear, shallow at the edges, and no debris was ever seen floating on them."

Dan also mentions the period before reporting her missing which has been brought up again on here recently:

"In fact, if I'd known how good the phone signal was beforehand, I'd have reported Esther missing two days earlier."

"When Esther didn't get in touch on the day she'd specified as the latest possible return, I tried to tell myself it would be OK. I'd been worried for days, ever since our last conversation when she was at the top of the Pic de Sauvegarde on 22 November, but I also respected her abilities and independence. Worrying was part of the deal when living with such a free spirit."​

 

[Steve13]

I believe we have heard that the searches commenced for the year—the Spaniards were doing the search as military training exercises—but I wouldn’t expect there to be updates. At this point—indeed, within a few days of going missing—LE was looking at recovery, not rescue. The busy season has started. Rescues will be taking priority, and there will be many.
Personally, I think it’s unfair to expect continued personnel, time, equipment outlays from either French or Spanish LE when they can use those resources to save (other people’s) lives.


It is not rare for hikers to go missing. Recovery is a lower priority than rescue and would take place when (low) risk levels permit. It’s often forgotten that S&R are at substantial risk themselves every time they go out.
When you go to the mountains, you take risks. Experienced hikers don’t assume they can or will be rescued if they have an accident unless they think the world revolves around them.
The array of risks in this case have been highlighted upthread, and were astronomical, not least because there was no one else there for miles around. The odds of a rescue rather than a recovery were always very low. IMO. I think we need to follow LE’s statements to the letter about what to expect, and to respect their experienced decisions regarding recovery. They seem to think even recovery odds are low. Expecting any allocation of their resources at this point is unfair and puts (living but injured) others at high risk.

If you’re not familiar with how S&R makes decisions and how soon rescue searches are terminated for the protection of everyone, look up the rescue and recovery missions on Mount Rainier. They recover bodies but generally don’t search for them. Other hikers come upon them, sometimes years later. This is exactly what LE was saying from the get-go. You gotta weigh risks vs benefits. Recovery is no reward, but can be very high risk.
In short, I think the notion that search details should or would be forthcoming is asking too much, no matter how much we’d all like to complete ED’s story. IMO

Do you know anything about how the SAR works there? Would it be normal to leave it a couple of days to set off? Seems odd to me, but I guess possible. DC seems to have given both 24th and 25th as the dates he reported ED missing. Oddly. If they might take a couple of days to set off, 24th could be poss?

 

[Grouse]

Dead right. "I'll be right over with your scones in a moment, Mrs Miggins, but first I'm just going to quickly put together a crisis-management plan for a Sandown missing-dog situation".

I'm sure, or I certainly will assume until I know otherwise, that they do good work for people who must be going through absolute hell in these situations when a loved one goes missing abroad, and they need representation. I am finding your attempts at humour on this very distasteful.

 

[tigerteeth]

I check on this case once in awhile. Glad to see recent discussion. Too bad no answers yet. . It seems most news sites that kept reporting on it are the sketchy ones that would purposely skew things for clicks.

 

[RickshawFan]

Do you know anything about how the SAR works there? Would it be normal to leave it a couple of days to set off? Seems odd to me, but I guess possible. DC seems to have given both 24th and 25th as the dates he reported ED missing. Oddly. If they might take a couple of days to set off, 24th could be poss?

IMO @Steve13 you've been correct in highlighting the lacuna in the schedule of events. There are days missing. Not only that, there's no mention of how and when DC got to the search area. This also is very significant IMO, partly because there's no evident reason why it should be left out.

After getting a call, SAR wouldn't wait to deploy except for "weather". They have to weigh "risk to personnel" versus the potential outcome. They also might have to assemble, get gear together, make a plan, etc. There's nothing to militate against the idea that he was in the area soon after ED's last communication and BEFORE the call t emergency services.

IMO an SAR cohort to find ED could have been mobilized quickly in those conditions.

One of the problems in all of this, is that everyone assumes the weather was bright and sunny when ED went missing. No one talks about fog. But it's clear fog can suddenly descend in that area. This would have made it even easier to have an accident, and it would seriously have hampered a search.

Consider the vast majority of ground-level SAR folks are volunteers.

[I removed some unhelpful links here.]

Instead, read this on the basic protocols: Inside the Art of Backcountry Search and Rescue

I found this especially germane to this case:
As the search progresses, new volunteers replace tired ones and plans are updated. “Our stats show 85 percent of all lost people are found within the first 12 hours, and 97 percent are found within the first 24 hours,” Anderson says. If someone falls in that three percent and remains missing after a day authorities begin to worry. “There’s a reason why they weren’t found within that first 24 hours, and it probably means they’re going to be extremely difficult to find.”

And this:
A search will continue for as long as the subject might be alive and conditions allow. At NPS, Anderson says his teams would usually search for seven-to-14 days. Alaska State Troopers go for three-to-ten days, he says, but locals might keep looking for months. To determine the duration of a specific search, SAR teams pull survivability statistics (how many people die after one day, two days, etc., in similar terrain and conditions) and consult with experts in wilderness medicine.

The only reason I know anything about SAR (apart from being involved in 2 rescues) is that on group hikes with shared transportation, I'd make sure to pick a car with SAR volunteers, so I could listen to their stories for a few hours. If you manage to find some SAR reports, you can get a flavor. If you happen to meet an SAR member, invite them for a beer and let them talk for a few hours.

 

[fridaybaker]

And the astronomically detailed:
Search and Rescue Operations Standards

Rickshaw, thanks for linking to this. I'm going to read it when I can't get to sleep tonight. Yikes. How can anyone remember all of those protocols!

 

[RickshawFan]

And the astronomically detailed:
Search and Rescue Operations Standards

Rickshaw, thanks for linking to this. I'm going to read it when I can't get to sleep tonight. Yikes. How can anyone remember all of those protocols!

Hahaha.... I'm removing it because it's an encyclopedia of links and each link costs about $50.

 

[RedHaus]

Not sure if anyone has posted a link this new(ish) BBC article yet, I only just saw it - Esther Dingley: Partner vows to keep searching for missing hiker .

Snipped for focus

@Grouse, thank you for finding this new BBC article. It is a poignant update from DC and his desperate search for ED and answers to her disappearance. It is heartbreaking, really. The magnitude of his current search is amazing (below).

I am struck by some of the same points you find interesting - 1. DC's discounting of lakes as viable search opportunities, 2. DC's two days (23-24/11) of anguish from no ED contact while he was at their gite, and 3. DC's insistence an accident is a low probability explanation for ED's disappearance due to the vast extent of his recent search efforts with no results.

But I also find interesting DC's statement LE "...had ruled out a voluntary disappearance months ago." If we include suicide in LE's definition of 'voluntary disappearance' (as we established in Thread #1, I believe), I have a hard time believing LE could conclude that. How could they possibly rule out the possibility ED committed suicide?

Compound the possibility ED could have committed suicide by drowning in a lake (e.g. Boum de Vanesque), then the bottom of lakes would have to be a viable search location when SAR has resources for such a recovery mission.

And of course, the other definition of 'voluntary disappearance' DC claims LE has ruled out, could include a scenario of ED traipsing down the slope of Pic de Sauvegarde on 22/11 to meet someone who has helped her find a new path.

I am not married to either 'voluntary disappearance' scenario, but the facts we know, IMO, keep those options alive.

p.s. @Grouse, I like your avatar!

Source: Esther Dingley: Partner vows to keep searching for missing hiker

 

[Steve13]

IMO @Steve13 you've been correct in highlighting the lacuna in the schedule of events. There are days missing. Not only that, there's no mention of how and when DC got to the search area. This also is very significant IMO, partly because there's no evident reason why it should be left out.

After getting a call, SAR wouldn't wait to deploy except for "weather". They have to weigh "risk to personnel" versus the potential outcome. They also might have to assemble, get gear together, make a plan, etc. There's nothing to militate against the idea that he was in the area soon after ED's last communication and BEFORE the call t emergency services.

IMO an SAR cohort to find ED could have been mobilized quickly in those conditions.

One of the problems in all of this, is that everyone assumes the weather was bright and sunny when ED went missing. No one talks about fog. But it's clear fog can suddenly descend in that area. This would have made it even easier to have an accident, and it would seriously have hampered a search.

Consider the vast majority of ground-level SAR folks are volunteers.

[I removed some unhelpful links here.]

Instead, read this on the basic protocols: Inside the Art of Backcountry Search and Rescue

I found this especially germane to this case:
As the search progresses, new volunteers replace tired ones and plans are updated. “Our stats show 85 percent of all lost people are found within the first 12 hours, and 97 percent are found within the first 24 hours,” Anderson says. If someone falls in that three percent and remains missing after a day authorities begin to worry. “There’s a reason why they weren’t found within that first 24 hours, and it probably means they’re going to be extremely difficult to find.”

And this:
A search will continue for as long as the subject might be alive and conditions allow. At NPS, Anderson says his teams would usually search for seven-to-14 days. Alaska State Troopers go for three-to-ten days, he says, but locals might keep looking for months. To determine the duration of a specific search, SAR teams pull survivability statistics (how many people die after one day, two days, etc., in similar terrain and conditions) and consult with experts in wilderness medicine.

The only reason I know anything about SAR (apart from being involved in 2 rescues) is that on group hikes with shared transportation, I'd make sure to pick a car with SAR volunteers, so I could listen to their stories for a few hours. If you manage to find some SAR reports, you can get a flavor. If you happen to meet an SAR member, invite them for a beer and let them talk for a few hours.

The new article is interesting for more reason than one. First, it's put up by the Duncan Leatherdale, who wrote the piece which went up on the day ED disappeared (for a local journo, that's a WHOA! moment). Was ED actually interviewed from her van on that day? No-one seems sure. If it said 'live' during the actual interview, she almost certainly was. Regardless, this new piece is not actually written by Leatherdale; he and The BBC have simply given DC a big space to provide his own verbatim account. This means that they don't have to vouch for the statements nor expresss journalistic ambiguity about the lack of second sources. In addition, there's some new stuff in there. DC is still vague about when he reported ED missing but says he was worried the whole time ('When Esther....soon be safe'). He says he hired a car to get to the area ED went missing (on 26th?). There's still no recognition of any emotional turbulence on ED's part (which requires us to discount the very credible Laura Adomaityte evidence) and much else flagged at WS. And, as @RedHaus points out, we're told the cops have ruled out a voluntary component (e.g. suicide) but there's no statement from the cops. Obv the cops would give a contemporaneous statement to the media if they were asked. In essence, there's only one source for all of these details - DC. There' no corroboration whatever. Finally, there's that unexplained stuff about 25th. Why was he so confident she would be back on 25th after her very long postponement/s ('we were counting down the days')? If there are texts from ED which say how great it will be to be home on 25th, and others at least mentioning The BBC story, it would surely be perverse for those not to be in the dossier?

The journo who produced the ST piece last week, and who walked with DC in the Pyrenees, is being approached by Netflix scouts and the like (you can see from his Twitter stream - won't link as not sure of WS rules on that). If you look at his piece and Leatherdale's intro, you'll see they use literally the same 'love of his life' language and suspend all judgement. Netflix and the like are interested in human interest stories a LOT bigger than a hiker falling in the hills.

 

[Grouse]

Snipped for focus

@Grouse, thank you for finding this new BBC article. It is a poignant update from DC and his desperate search for ED and answers to her disappearance. It is heartbreaking, really. The magnitude of his current search is amazing (below).



I am struck by some of the same points you find interesting - 1. DC's discounting of lakes as viable search opportunities, 2. DC's two days (23-24/11) of anguish from no ED contact while he was at their gite, and 3. DC's insistence an accident is a low probability explanation for ED's disappearance due to the vast extent of his recent search efforts with no results.

But I also find interesting DC's statement LE "...had ruled out a voluntary disappearance months ago." If we include suicide in LE's definition of 'voluntary disappearance' (as we established in Thread #1, I believe), I have a hard time believing LE could conclude that. How could they possibly rule out the possibility ED committed suicide?

Compound the possibility ED could have committed suicide by drowning in a lake (e.g. Boum de Vanesque), then the bottom of lakes would have to be a viable search location when SAR has resources for such a recovery mission.

And of course, the other definition of 'voluntary disappearance' DC claims LE has ruled out, could include a scenario of ED traipsing down the slope of Pic de Sauvegarde on 22/11 to meet someone who has helped her find a new path.

I am not married to either 'voluntary disappearance' scenario, but the facts we know, IMO, keep those options alive.

p.s. @Grouse, I like your avatar!

Source: Esther Dingley: Partner vows to keep searching for missing hiker

Some good points @RedHaus, I agree with the voluntary disappearance point - I'm guessing DC is only referring to the starting a new life scenario in which it must be hard for them to believe she would do that to her family?

If the lakes are so clear why doesn't someone come out and say they have been checked?

I take on board Rickshaw's points that we should not expect regular updates from SAR, and that rescues take priority over recovery etc , but the fact of the matter is that there is a recovery search going on for Esther. And with several bodies of water right next to the last known location of a missing person, I stick to my view from ages back that it is very odd that they haven't been ruled out by now. Otherwise, if they are going to be omitted from the search, then I'd question the point of that search. MOO.

 

[19thcenturynovel]

I check on this case once in awhile. Glad to see recent discussion. Too bad no answers yet. . It seems most news sites that kept reporting on it are the sketchy ones that would purposely skew things for clicks.

First time commenting here! I think the explanation for her disappearance is more likely to be mundane rather than some of the far fetched suggestions I've read elsewhere but anything is possible... I think it's likely she fell and hasn't been found yet. From the conversation Esther had with the woman on the mountain, breaking up with DC was on her mind. He doesn't seem to be taking that conversation into account because she sent him loving messages. That's part of the process breaking up from a long term partner. It doesn't make him suspicious in my view.

 

[capitola51]

I found a video of a hike from the hotel on the French side up to Pic Sauvergarde and ED’s planned route back down to Refuge Venasque.

 

[fridaybaker]

The terrain from the video seems completely at odds with what DC describes in the dossier. I'm not a skilled climber or hiker; however, for the general public, methinks the dossier gives a much more "easy" picture of the terrain, especially considering that ED may have been somewhat pressed for time as she was hiking late in the day.

Also, though, the closeup of the lake at the end of the video reinforces maybe why there hasn't seemed to be much focus on the lakes, either by DC or from what we've heard from newspaper reports. That lake, at least, had a very large, very shallow entrance. It would make it less likely to fall and be hidden, although it's certainly possible. Maybe all the surrounding lakes are like this? Gives a better perspective of perhaps why the lack of interest, at least on DC's part, of the lake situation, anyway.

 

[capitola51]

The terrain from the video seems completely at odds with what DC describes in the dossier. I'm not a skilled climber or hiker; however, for the general public, methinks the dossier gives a much more "easy" picture of the terrain, especially considering that ED may have been somewhat pressed for time as she was hiking late in the day.

Also, though, the closeup of the lake at the end of the video reinforces maybe why there hasn't seemed to be much focus on the lakes, either by DC or from what we've heard from newspaper reports. That lake, at least, had a very large, very shallow entrance. It would make it less likely to fall and be hidden, although it's certainly possible. Maybe all the surrounding lakes are like this? Gives a better perspective of perhaps why the lack of interest, at least on DC's part, of the lake situation, anyway.

Well it looks less than trivial to me but I bet I could have done it easily at age 37 with the right footwear. Other factors affecting the trail difficulty could be light (time of day), temperature and weather. The planned downward descent from Pic Sauvergarde to Refuge Venasque goes through Port Venasque, crossing the border between Spain and France as it does so. Each of those two legs are less than 1000 meters each. Upthread we talked about that transition and how it could have increased risk and Grouse published a link to a Shadowmap corrected for the time and date which shows significantly reduced lighting on the second leg.

 

[capitola51]

Adding the shadowmap link

 

[fridaybaker]

Thanks, Capitola. I remember this now. Unfortunately, I'm not able to see anything on the map! I'll have to see if I can figure out how to use it. I do remember, though, that Grouse thought visibility might be pretty low after having seen it.

 

[RedHaus]

I found a video of a hike from the hotel on the French side up to Pic Sauvergarde and ED’s planned route back down to Refuge Venasque.

Thanks @capitola51. What a beautiful day. And I loved the goats. All familiar images. We've studied this trek ad nauseam. And be careful interpreting the lake images. Two lakes are filmed.

The lake by the refuge is much more shallow and smaller than Boum de Vanesque under the backside of Pic de Sauvegarde. Boum de Vanesque is 46m or 151 feet deep. That is a mighty deep lake. If ED fell into the lake from the top of pic de sauvegarde or from the scree fields surrounding the lake, or committed suicide by walking or swimming into the lake and drowning, she could be lying in peace far below the visibility of a surface drone or from the edge of the lake.

Boums de Venasque - Bagnères de Luchon

 

[RickshawFan]

The terrain from the video seems completely at odds with what DC describes in the dossier. I'm not a skilled climber or hiker; however, for the general public, methinks the dossier gives a much more "easy" picture of the terrain, especially considering that ED may have been somewhat pressed for time as she was hiking late in the day.

Snipped for focus.
Yes, the dossier and many posters here have a much rosier sense of the terrain than reality. The view shots make it look easy. The trail shots, though.....
Then, look how the shadows work. Stretches of those valleys and the trail are dark.
Look at the narrow, rocky trails. So easy to roll a foot on just one stone.... To trip 'cos it's been a long day.
Consider the temperature (which will also be colder in the shadow); it was below freezing that night.
Consider what happens when you get moisture (e.g. fog) dampening those rocky trails and slabs. You get a thin layer of ice. Often you can't see it. Perhaps you're admiring the view or eager to make it off the mountain. So you step, and.....
Hoar frost blows through all of a sudden, and your world is covered in slippery white stuff....
Consider your balance when you're wearing a pack. You can get upside-down-turtled in a flash. You'd have to undo your sternum strap and try to get your arms out to right yourself. This is much more difficult than you'd imagine when you're at the edge of a cliff. And you let go your pack in the process? Keep tumbling, dragged down by the pack?
Consider you're using trekking poles with your hands through the straps. You're zooming along, and the end of the pole suddenly snags on a rock, a stone, a scraggly bush. Do you know what happens? You suddenly get wrenched around (hikers in the know don't use the straps while hiking for this very reason).
Consider what happens when you don't have lugged boots, and the ones you do have have been worn for a thousand miles or two....
Consider what happens when you're hungry and you don't even have a decent dinner to look forward to.
Consider what happens when you step near one of those little streamlets when darkness is pending. And if you linger because you're out of water and need to resupply?
Consider what happens if you got a bit chilled as shadows moved in, and you didn't want to spend the time to layer up because you felt you had to hustle down...
A thousand risks, a thousand ways to have an accident.

 

[Steve13]

I'm sure, or I certainly will assume until I know otherwise, that they do good work for people who must be going through absolute hell in these situations when a loved one goes missing abroad, and they need representation. I am finding your attempts at humour on this very distasteful.

1. I pay genuine tribute to

I'm sure, or I certainly will assume until I know otherwise, that they do good work for people who must be going through absolute hell in these situations when a loved one goes missing abroad, and they need representation. I am finding your attempts at humour on this very distasteful.

Yeah. I agree. If you can combine PR and toasted teacakes with melted butter you can't for far wrong. Mind you, this isn't a PR agency fan website. It's Websleuths. And without suggesting anything untoward of any loved one in this particular context, obviously, when a bad thing happens to a woman it's more often than not their loved one at the root of it. <modsnip>