UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #19

[JimmyDurham]

We dont know that she was killed outdoors though! Could have been her home or someone elses home

Agreed. That's why I said probably based upon the known information.

No sign of a disturbance in her home.

'Took the things she generally needed for work and left behind the things she generally didn't need for work. Crucially, her jewelry. The vast, vast majority of women going to meet a man somewhere will be wearing their jewelry. The jewelry was more than likely left behind because she was going to the place where it was inconvenient, i.e. work as a chef.

 

[JimmyDurham]

The police have to send evidence to the CPS who decide if a case goes to court. They obviously had some evidence on the four just not enough to meet the CPS threshold. Doesnt mean they were not involved

When you say they obviously had 'some evidence on the four', well, it clearly wasn't any evidence of any significance given that the CPS ruled: no realistic prospect of a conviction.

That's the reality. The CPS basically replied with: a defence lawyer would wipe the floor with what you have here, don't waste your time with this

 

[jackal67]

When you say they obviously had 'some evidence on the four', well, it clearly wasn't any evidence of any significance given that the CPS ruled: no realistic prospect of a conviction.

That's the reality. The CPS basically replied with: a defence lawyer would wipe the floor with what you have here, don't waste your time with this

So on what grounds do you think the four were arrested?

 

[JimmyDurham]

So on what grounds do you think the four were arrested?

That's a good question: what exactly was the basis of their suspicions? It certainly didn't impress the CPS.

Minded of the lass in Hull murdered on a New Year's Eve. The police stuck to what they knew. The lass had walked home from her Mams, the vast majority of women abducted on the streets are done so by someone who lives within a mile of where she went missing. The police focused on that demonstrable information and caught him.

I feel that the York police got caught up in all of the gossip and speculation, and it clouded their judgement.

 

[Nikynoo]

So on what grounds do you think the four were arrested?

The police only need reasonable grounds to suspect someone is involed in a crime - Police powers of arrest: your rights. In many cases people are arrested to preserve crime investigations and more often to rule people out, than rule people in.

I do think that gossip and speculation led to the arrest of the NH4.

I also think that the police had tunnel vision in the first few weeks of Claudias disappearance - and placed too much reliance on the attendees of the NH. I also think that the police added 2 and 2 togther and made 5 when it came to Claudias personal life.

I do think she went missing on the morning and not the evening. I don't think 'alleyman' is relevant (the timing in the morning is way off). I do not think any of the NH are involved. I do think Claudia knew the person involved. I do think that it is likely that the person involved was rebuffed by Claudia.

I do have a list of suspects, and share some of the thinking of @JimmyDurham (Welcome to Websleuths!).

ETA thoughts on arrest

 

[Professor Moriarty]

If you can't get the go ahead to charge, that doesn't mean that your evidence is worthless. It may just mean that there isn't enough of it. The CPS generally only get one chance to prosecute. If the person is acquitted, they've lost the chance to convict him or her.

(Of course, the Criminal Justice Act 2003 allows a second prosecution where compelling new evidence, such as DNA evidence, becomes available. But the CPS cannot rely on that happening, so they need a strong case.)

We don't know what evidence the police have, but not having a body, a crime scene, or (as far as I am aware) any forensic evidence or useful CCTV makes prosecution very difficult.

I have previously compared this case to that of Alistair Wilson. In that case, the police had a body and a crime scene, but no other useful evidence (as far as I am aware): just a vague description. Finding the gun doesn't seem to have helped: it would if they could tie someone to that gun and show a motive for that person, but that hasn't happened.

Difficult cases.

 

[JimmyDurham]

The police only need reasonable grounds to suspect someone is involed in a crime - Police powers of arrest: your rights. In many cases people are arrested to preserve crime investigations and more often to rule people out, than rule people in.

I do think that gossip and speculation led to the arrest of the NH4.

I also think that the police had tunnel vision in the first few weeks of Claudias disappearance - and placed too much reliance on the attendees of the NH. I also think that the police added 2 and 2 togther and made 5 when it came to Claudias personal life.

I do think she went missing on the morning and not the evening. I don't think 'alleyman' is relevant (the timing in the morning is way off). I do not think any of the NH are involved. I do think Claudia knew the person involved. I do think that it is likely that the person involved was rebuffed by Claudia.

I do have a list of suspects, and share some of the thinking of @JimmyDurham (Welcome to Websleuths!).

ETA thoughts on arrest

Many thanks on the welcome!

I tend to agree with most of this.

In terms of the fella who walked down the street, well, he simply walked down a street like everyone else. No more information than that on the camera. Maybe the tail wagging the dog. We know a lass who lived there was murdered and so we imagine that innocuous, every day activities are somehow important. Same with the 'braking car'. It's a car driving down a street and it's braking: happens in every street in the country.

When you say 'rebuffed by Claudia', do you mean rebuffed for the first time on that morning?

 

[JimmyDurham]

We don't know what evidence the police have

We do know that the 'evidence' wasn't sufficient to get a case into a court of law never mind a conviction. That tells the story. The story it tells is that the supposed evidence would have been laughed out of court.

At least one of the NH4 stated (publicly) that the police had no clue what they were doing and were wasting taxpayers money on a wild goose chase due to confirmation bias. The police didn't reply to that embarrassing public accusation. Nothing to say. No counter argument. Nothing whatsoever to put one of the NH4 in his place.

 

[Nikynoo]

Many thanks on the welcome!

I tend to agree with most of this.

In terms of the fella who walked down the street, well, he simply walked down a street like everyone else. No more information than that on the camera. Maybe the tail wagging the dog. We know a lass who lived there was murdered and so we imagine that innocuous, every day activities are somehow important. Same with the 'braking car'. It's a car driving down a street and it's braking: happens in every street in the country.

When you say 'rebuffed by Claudia', do you mean rebuffed for the first time on that morning?

Possibly, or they could have thought she was leading them on. If it was this scenario, I could see Claudia being killed accidentally vs my other scenario, where it was intentional. (I have at least two working theories) .

The braking car - I have also discounted this, if the timing on the cctv is correct then (based on the timing of Claudia arriving to work the previous morning) was about 45 minutes too late.

 

[JimmyDurham]

Possibly, or they could have thought she was leading them on. If it was this scenario, I could see Claudia being killed accidentally vs my other scenario, where it was intentional. (I have at least two working theories) .

The braking car - I have also discounted this, if the timing on the cctv is correct then (based on the timing of Claudia arriving to work the previous morning) was about 45 minutes too late.

Agreed in that Claudia was long gone on her way to work by the time of the car CCTV.

Just minded of Crimewatch cold cases and the like, when they're eventually caught, and it seems to me that a woman murdered outdoors is usually at the hands of a lunatic whom she does not know and has never met. That's not an empirical study on my part, just an observation, seems that way to me.

 

[wtiger]

why does everyone talk of "the nags head four"??

maybe try thinking about "the nags head two"

in my opinon