UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #19

  • #701
Thanks for the further information. I can’t imagine for a second anyone would go all the way to Thirsk to hide a body from York.
It’s rare and I don’t think this would be the case with Claudia, but you’d also be surprised.

Sian O’Callaghan (Swindon, 2011) was found 17 miles away and Sarah Everard (London, 2021) was found 80 miles away respectively as 2 examples .
 
  • #702
Same thing. He walked down a street, into an alley and then he goes off CCTV. So what?

Get yourself to a cafe tomorrow, sit outside with a cup of tea, and within half an hour you'll see boatloads of people walk down a street and then turn into an alley.

For this person to have any relevance, you have to see more than somebody walk down the street and turn into an alley. To force relevance upon this person, you're making things up that are not on CCTV.
You really need to look at the CCTV again, normal people don’t behave or walk like that. They don’t walk, see someone and then stop, and continue walking when that person has walked past, unless they are up to something or trying to avoid being seen.

Also, you mention about random people walking down alleys, what are the odds of an individual walking round the back of Claudias property at around the same time or just before Claudias communications stopped, and then conveniently the same morning returns the morning she has gone missing and walks the exact same way and walks back in the same manner.

The individual that the alleyway man was trying to avoid walking down the main road has basically been outed in many forums and Reddit as a relation to the man with the limp who stopped, it’s his son.

The police also more than likely have further CCTV of this individual in other areas that obviously havent been released for legal reasons, he’s the man that dobbed the other 3 in and why they were subsequently arrested.

This is not a random person kidnapping
 
  • #703
I have a pretty firm belief that Claudia's disappearance involved someone (or multiple people) she knew, but equally I'm not sure about any need for furtive behaviour around her home. The police are trained to look for signs of a cover-up, and there has never been any suggestion--that I'm aware of--that they think anything happened at her home. If it did, the perpetrators appear to have done an amazing cover-up! My belief has always been that she left voluntarily, whether the night before or in the morning, and that whatever happened it happened somewhere else.

My memory may be playing tricks, but I think I once read an article (one I can no longer find) which said the alley behind Claudia's home was very overgrown when she lived there. It was definitely overgrown and had to be cut back when a search was conducted later. If it was overgrown, accessing her back garden from the alleyway would have been very difficult; her front door would have been pretty much the only good access point. Would there be much point to going behind Claudia's house if the alley was overgrown? It doesn't seem like her house is even particularly visible from Heworth Pl.

I can only speak for myself, but when I'm out walking in the dark I do usually try to avoid other people. Not because I'm up to no good, but because I'm wary of whether or not the *other* person is someone I want to meet. I'm not saying this applies to the man in the CCTV (his behaviour absolutely could be suspicious) but there *are* innocent reasons for stopping when you see another person.
 
  • #704
You really need to look at the CCTV again

The difference of opinion is not due to whether or not I have carefully looked at the CCTV and reasonably assessed the information on camera; it's due to your interpretation of the CCTV/information and reasoning capacity.

Essentially, your interpretation is confirmation bias as well as cynically manipulating what you see into something that isn't actually on camera/contained within the information. What you're doing is forcing the information to fit a preconceived theory, as opposed to let the information guide your opinions.

They don’t walk, see someone and then stop, and continue walking when that person has walked past, unless they are up to something or trying to avoid being seen.

What you see on camera is a man walk across the top of the road and another man stop for a couple of seconds. You do not see a man trying to avoid being seen. You have deduced that from the information on the camera.

It is a possibility, I agree, but there is more information on the camera that suggests he wasn't trying to avoid being seen, as follows:

1) It is in the evening (7pmish). He walked along what has been deemed to be a busy road at that time of the day. That's hardly indicative of a man trying to avoid being seen.

2) Alley man had visibility of walking along the top of the road man a few seconds before he stopped suggesting top of the road man is not the reason as to why alley man stopped. Top of the road man is almost past alley man and obscured by housing when alley man stops.

3) Alley man actually follows top of the road man 'round the same corner, onto the same road and going in the same direction. He's a few yards behind him. Hardly indicative of alley man not wanting to be seen by top of the road man.

On balance, alley man was simply going about his business innocently.

Also, you mention about random people walking down alleys, what are the odds of an individual walking round the back of Claudias property at around the same time or just before Claudias communications stopped

The bookies wouldn't give you any odds, not even a 1,000/1 on.

You know why? Because unrelated incidents within an hour of each other happen all of the time. I mean all of the time. They're happening now, everywhere on this planet, probably in your home right now as you type.

You say: "round the back of Claudia's property". This is a very good example of the information being cynically manipulated to fit a theory.

There were various properties in that small area. He didn't even have time to reach Claudia's back door. From that, you can reasonably deduce that Claudia's property was not the reason for turning off the main road but rather it was some other property, if indeed it was a property.

You make it sound like the CCTV/information demonstrates that alley man was targeting Claudia's property when in fact it demonstrates no such thing. It simply shows that he turned down an area with various properties and given the time he was off camera he did not have time to get to Claudia's back door. That's what the CCTV shows.

The individual that the alleyway man was trying to avoid walking down the main road has basically been outed in many forums and Reddit as a relation to the man with the limp who stopped, it’s his son.

'Could be interesting, but did you ask for the source as opposed to take it for granted and regurgitate this social media gossip elsewhere?

Without a source, said rumours are worth nowt (to enquiring, reasonable minds anyway).

The police also more than likely have further CCTV of this individual in other areas that obviously havent been released for legal reasons, he’s the man that dobbed the other 3 in and why they were subsequently arrested.

Aye, the magic information that nobody has seen. Well, when I say nobody, the CPS saw the lot. All of it. They weren't impressed. Not worthy of entry into a court of law.

A reasonable person would conclude that the magic information that nobody has seen, is no more than made up nonsense to bolster a theory that begins with an Agatha Christie style plot and is heavily bound up with confirmation bias.

I know, plenty do not want it to be another boring, typical 'lone man with a screw loose murders woman' case because people like to come up with all sorts of convoluted theories and conspiracies. 'Takes the interest out of it for many.

I'm afraid though, statistically that is easily the most likely scenario when it comes to how and why Claudia went missing.
 
  • #705
It is strange that, despite all the coverage, Alleyman has not come forward to be eliminated-or has he?
 
  • #706
Heworth Road is a bit of a strange road- it’s very, very short, has a pub and a primary school on. You don’t tend to see pedestrians on that stretch as it doesn’t really go anywhere, apart from the pub and the school with 130 pupils. It gets busy with cars as a cut through rather than a destination. There are no bus stops on that stretch of road. It’s a deceiving street in that the people who walk along there are usually residents or visiting residents, also visiting the pub or school. For someone to not identify themselves with all the publicity is unusual as pedestrian wise it’s very, very quiet. If you don’t believe me, look on Google earth- no pedestrians. I drive down it frequently, never see people walking down there. That’s not to say people don’t walk down there, of course they do- but it’s memorable.
 
  • #707
It is strange that, despite all the coverage, Alleyman has not come forward to be eliminated-or has he?

Various people did not come forward during this investigation (similar to any other investigation) from: owners of cars, to people seen in Claudia's street to fingerprints in Claudia's home to DNA on tab ends to people arguing on the morning of Claudia's disappearance to others. Seems it's not out of the ordinary in this investigation.

I suppose it depends on how far you/I/anyone else want to veer away from what we know in order to prop up a theory.

As an example, Claudia's conversation with her Mam that night as well as the contents of her home, suggest that she went to work that morning. That's as plain as day. I personally wouldn't go on to use the supposed sightings of Claudia in the morning to bolster that. The reason being that I'm aware of just how unreliable eyewitness testimony is, and that being the case, I'll be true to what I know; I'll judge these supposed sightings of Claudia on their own merit and be sceptical of them as a result (as opposed to crowbar them into my theory because it suits and ignore what is reasonable).

What you see on CCTV is a man walking down the street and turning into an alley. There are various properties as he turns into that alley. He doesn't have time to get to Claudia's back door. That's it. That's what you see.

Now, when this is pointed out and there is no alternative argument that can be put forward without looking ridiculous, the argument becomes: "then why didn't he come forward".

Now that it's been pointed out that many people did not come forward, you/I/anyone else know what's coming next: "the polis know everything, we just haven't seen it."

It's an exercise in theory first, information made to fit, and when it's taken apart: argue until blue in the face and just keep moving it along to something else.
 
  • #708
What you see on CCTV is a man walking down the street and turning into an alley. There are various properties as he turns into that alley. He doesn't have time to get to Claudia's back door. That's it. That's what you see.

Now, when this is pointed out and there is no alternative argument that can be put forward without looking ridiculous, the argument becomes: "then why didn't he come forward".
Im not sure we know the timings other than he went down the back alley prior to Claudia speaking to her mum and appearing afterwards. But then you could suggest that if something occurred at the house, why did the neighbours not hear anything.
 
  • #709
Various people did not come forward during this investigation (similar to any other investigation) from: owners of cars, to people seen in Claudia's street to fingerprints in Claudia's home to DNA on tab ends to people arguing on the morning of Claudia's disappearance to others. Seems it's not out of the ordinary in this investigation.

I suppose it depends on how far you/I/anyone else want to veer away from what we know in order to prop up a theory.

As an example, Claudia's conversation with her Mam that night as well as the contents of her home, suggest that she went to work that morning. That's as plain as day. I personally wouldn't go on to use the supposed sightings of Claudia in the morning to bolster that. The reason being that I'm aware of just how unreliable eyewitness testimony is, and that being the case, I'll be true to what I know; I'll judge these supposed sightings of Claudia on their own merit and be sceptical of them as a result (as opposed to crowbar them into my theory because it suits and ignore what is reasonable).

What you see on CCTV is a man walking down the street and turning into an alley. There are various properties as he turns into that alley. He doesn't have time to get to Claudia's back door. That's it. That's what you see.

Now, when this is pointed out and there is no alternative argument that can be put forward without looking ridiculous, the argument becomes: "then why didn't he come forward".

Now that it's been pointed out that many people did not come forward, you/I/anyone else know what's coming next: "the polis know everything, we just haven't seen it."

It's an exercise in theory first, information made to fit, and when it's taken apart: argue until blue in the face and just keep moving it along to something else.
You keep saying the same things over and over.

Nothing really suggests she went to work in the morning , at all …unless you think a few dishes in the sink and missing items proves that just like the perpetrators want you to think. Her house was set up, just because a few dishes are in the sink and her hair straighteners are not there means nothing. The police have basically said her bed was too pristine to have even been slept in and you really think claudia would leave empty dishes in the sink before work if she was so fastidious do her bed ? Also Claudias family saying she would never leave her slippers by the door and other irregularities

The individual walking round her property was arrested, the police know who it is despite claiming the opposite. Many ,many articles online name him , it’s all over the place who it is, if people search hard enough. People in York know who it is and openly say who these people are yet nothing ever changes , it’s not a secret
 
  • #710
Im not sure we know the timings other than he went down the back alley prior to Claudia speaking to her mum and appearing afterwards.

I'm confident the timings are known, Ruth. I can't quite remember what order because it's been a while, but I'm pretty sure a cursory glance at disclosure on the internet will reveal the times. From memory:

CCTV of alley man at 7:15. In the space of being off camera after going down the alley to being back on camera coming from the alley, insufficient time to reach Claudia's back door.

Memory isn't what it was but think Claudia spoke to her Dad first and then her Mam (that night). You'll easily be able to verify this from authoritative sources on the internet. Her Mam was 8pmish? Watching the same programme?

But then you could suggest that if something occurred at the house, why did the neighbours not hear anything.

It's a fair enough point but I personally wouldn't place too much store in that. It is very telling however, that there was no evidence of Claudia being attacked in her home. In all likelihood, that's because she wasn't attacked in her home.
 
  • #711
It is strange that, despite all the coverage, Alleyman has not come forward to be eliminated-or has he?
I want to know, if alley man now is the married Uni employee (with a son?) or the unmarried owner of some houses (for rent) in Claudia's neighborhood, who was found dead (heart attack?) in his own home short time later after CL's disappearing. Who is it? My guess was the latter always, although I can't recognize him on surveillance. But he was very active and busy, afaik, and the early time in the morning would probably have made sense.
 
  • #712
Heworth Road is a bit of a strange road- it’s very, very short, has a pub and a primary school on. You don’t tend to see pedestrians on that stretch as it doesn’t really go anywhere, apart from the pub and the school with 130 pupils. It gets busy with cars as a cut through rather than a destination. There are no bus stops on that stretch of road. It’s a deceiving street in that the people who walk along there are usually residents or visiting residents, also visiting the pub or school. For someone to not identify themselves with all the publicity is unusual as pedestrian wise it’s very, very quiet. If you don’t believe me, look on Google earth- no pedestrians. I drive down it frequently, never see people walking down there. That’s not to say people don’t walk down there, of course they do- but it’s memorable.

I think it's because Heworth was an isolated village until the suburbs of York crept out to meet it. That's why such a seemingly small place has a pub and a school etc. The only part that might be surprising is that the pub and school are still in operation.

The whole of that area, including Fourth Avenue where my sister lived, is really deceptively quiet. For being so close to the city centre, and for having so many big roads nearby, it always amazed me how few people I would see. Pretty much everyone travelled by car, even in the early 2000s when my sister lived there.
 
  • #713
I want to know, if alley man now is the married Uni employee (with a son?) or the unmarried owner of some houses (for rent) in Claudia's neighborhood, who was found dead (heart attack?) in his own home short time later after CL's disappearing. Who is it? My guess was the latter always, although I can't recognize him on surveillance. But he was very active and busy, afaik, and the early time in the morning would probably have made sense.

I'm puzzled by this myself. At the time of searching RC's (the landlord's) properties on East Parade in August 2009, the police were quite clear that they believed he was the man in the CCTV. But due to his death not long after Claudia's disappearance, they would never be able to say with complete certainty.

There's always talk of the man in the CCTV "going behind Claudia's house." But whilst that is technically true, Heworth Place also has a row of roughly one dozen small terraced properties. The alleyway in question, assuming the man ever actually went near it, runs between the properties on both Heworth Road and Heworth Place, providing--if not overgrown--access to the back gardens of approximately twenty houses.

Despite stopping to let another person walk past, it seems to me that the man on the CCTV was just trying to keep some distance rather than actively avoid being seen: I say this because he stopped almost directly under a street light!

The story of RC regularly giving his rental properties a quick once-over always made a lot of sense to me. I guess the real question would be whether or not there is CCTV of the same man in that location prior to the night/morning of Claudia's disappearance. How far back did the police go in their CCTV search?

If this man appeared on CCTV numerous times in the days or weeks preceding Claudia's disappearance, IMO it minimises the chances of him being involved. If he only appears on the CCTV that night/morning, it increases the chances of involvement.

It's quite possible the police have now identified the man in the CCTV as someone other than RC, and have simply never announced it. But here on WS, we have to be very careful about stating things as a fact without providing links to reliable sources to back it up. The idea of it being someone other than RC is a perfectly valid theory, and I definitely don't dismiss it; but without published support from a trustworthy source it is just one more possibility among the many.
 
  • #714
I'm puzzled by this myself. At the time of searching RC's (the landlord's) properties on East Parade in August 2009, the police were quite clear that they believed he was the man in the CCTV. But due to his death not long after Claudia's disappearance, they would never be able to say with complete certainty.

There's always talk of the man in the CCTV "going behind Claudia's house." But whilst that is technically true, Heworth Place also has a row of roughly one dozen small terraced properties. The alleyway in question, assuming the man ever actually went near it, runs between the properties on both Heworth Road and Heworth Place, providing--if not overgrown--access to the back gardens of approximately twenty houses.

Despite stopping to let another person walk past, it seems to me that the man on the CCTV was just trying to keep some distance rather than actively avoid being seen: I say this because he stopped almost directly under a street light!

The story of RC regularly giving his rental properties a quick once-over always made a lot of sense to me. I guess the real question would be whether or not there is CCTV of the same man in that location prior to the night/morning of Claudia's disappearance. How far back did the police go in their CCTV search?

If this man appeared on CCTV numerous times in the days or weeks preceding Claudia's disappearance, IMO it minimises the chances of him being involved. If he only appears on the CCTV that night/morning, it increases the chances of involvement.

It's quite possible the police have now identified the man in the CCTV as someone other than RC, and have simply never announced it. But here on WS, we have to be very careful about stating things as a fact without providing links to reliable sources to back it up. The idea of it being someone other than RC is a perfectly valid theory, and I definitely don't dismiss it; but without published support from a trustworthy source it is just one more possibility among the many.
<modsnip - rumor>

What I find strange about RC is that after the events of Claudias disappearance I read that he was found at his home on April the 9th ( 3 weeks after Claudia went missing ) and died of a heart attack which always appeared suss to me.

Yet another neighbour reported seeing Claudia get bundled into a car one night well before she eventually disappeared and he also ( I think) passed a way of a heart attack.

It seems a lot of people in this case pass away, or leave the area and keep quiet

AC was one of the nags 4 and was arrested , grassing up the other 3. This individual was also working at the university at the time , and was well known for frequenting the
Nags and having a distinctive walk.
The police say they don’t know who the man is but I think that’s a bluff on their part. <modsnip>
 
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  • #715
I don't know whether anyone will be interested in reading this, but as I hate leaving issues unfinished I've written this in an attempt to answer any remaining questions about mobile phone technology. It's long but hopefully covers everything. If anyone remains unconvinced I'm honestly not sure there's more I can say about it.

As ever, I will cover my butt by saying this is all JMO. But for those interested I will also provide these two Wikipedia links which go into much more of the technical scientific detail:


Claudia's phone was a Samsung D900 which connected to the 2G GSM network. GSM was first developed in the mid 1980s; early implementations went into use in the early 90s, and it was almost ubiquitous by the early 2000s. The technology was already more than twenty years old by the time Claudia went missing. This is important because it speaks to how much experience the police already had with tracking mobile phones using this technology. It wasn't new or crude technology at all.

It is generally true that the 2G masts used in 2009 covered a much wider area than the 4G/5G masts used today. It's a simple matter of wavelength. The lower frequency of the 2G signal has a longer wavelength than the higher frequency of the 4G/5G signal, therefore the signal can travel a longer distance between masts. Despite there being fewer masts in 2009 than there are today, the much wider range of the 2G masts actually meant you were just as likely to be within range of multiple masts as you are in 2025.

Modern 4G/5G mobile technology uses shorter wavelengths which require closer spacing of the masts to achieve the *exact same* level of coverage. Phone companies wouldn't waste their money installing masts at every street corner if they could get away with installing just two or three in every square mile. Modern masts are more densely packed because they have to be. And yet there were, nonetheless, already close to fifty 2G masts in the centre of York as far back as 2002. At any one time, even in 2009, a phone near the centre of York would probably have been within range of at least half a dozen masts.

In any case, a phone mast with a range of 9 miles--such as the York University mast--would almost certainly be what is called a "macrocell". Those are the largest and most powerful types of phone mast: the type you see mounted on top of tall buildings or on huge pylons in the middle of a field. They are generally used in areas of high traffic or as a "router" for smaller local masts. Which means a phone connected to the University's mast would quite possibly have been connected to another more localised mast as well--whether the police ever choose to divulge that information or not.

Moreover, the purpose of such a powerful mast at a University isn't to provide coverage for a wide area, even if the mast is technically capable of doing that: the purpose is to provide a strong signal for the huge number of calls and texts generated by the mass of humanity at the University campus!

The reality is that it doesn't matter precisely where the masts are located when there are so many of them. In the middle of a major city, the chances of EVER being within range of just one phone mast are slim. If your phone is in range of a mast it WILL ping that mast to check the signal strength. That is how the technology has worked ever since the invention of GSM four decades ago; the technology didn't suddenly change just to make things more difficult for the Claudia Lawrence investigation.

If Claudia's phone connected to the University's mast in preference to numerous others nearby, that already tells the police a lot. It already narrows down the likely location of the phone, and calculations based on the strength and direction of the signal could probably get the location down to perhaps a half-mile square. That is with the data from just the *one* mast we can be certain about.

The idea that the police wouldn't be able to narrow it down beyond the mast's full 9-mile range is simply not how this technology works. It doesn't matter whether the police ever admit it or not, the technology has *never* worked that way. GSM uses the strength and direction of the signal to estimate location; merely by looking at the logged signal between the phone and the mast, the police would most likely know if it was 1 mile away, 9 miles away, stationary or in motion. GSM tracking takes more time and effort than modern GPS tracking, but it is nonetheless remarkably accurate.

In addition, the police could look at Claudia's phone records from the previous days and weeks when she was calling and texting from *known* locations. They could check which phone masts she connected to on those occasions, check the signal strength from those locations, and extrapolate where her phone was likely to be on the day of her disappearance based on her prior location history.

This technology has been in use for decades and it's only in recent years that the police have been willing to openly talk about it. They quite understandably didn't want every random person knowing the exact capabilities they had; they wanted to maintain the integrity of the technology as a valid investigative tool. The reason they can talk about it now is because GSM is largely defunct.

Mobile phone technology has never been complicated. A phone pings numerous masts to find the strongest signal. Once the phone finds the strongest signal it connects to it. Once connected to a mast the phone continues to ping other masts to ensure it always has the best possible connection.

Because a phone pings multiple masts, and because those pings are recorded in the logs of the mast, the police can request that data from the service provider. Using that data they can triangulate/trilaterate the location of the phone. Triangulation relates to the direction/angle of the phone relative to the phone mast; trilateration relates to the distance of the phone from the phone mast which is derived from the strength of the signal. By taking those data points and doing some fancy calculations, you absolutely can locate a phone to within a street or two.

The precise location of each mast is only important to the person who is doing those calculations. Whether a mast is two miles away or ten yards away is totally irrelevant unless you have the phone data required to make the locations mean something. We don't have that. We probably never will.

In the earliest days of the investigation the police team seemed to be fairly convinced that Claudia had remained at home and set off for work as intended. Perhaps that was a bluff. But if her phone had been tracked to within the Heworth/Melrosegate area, it wouldn't have rung any alarm bells initially because that was exactly where Claudia's phone was supposed to be.

Even if Claudia's phone had been tracked right to Heworth Road, that would still mean it could have been at her home, at the Nag's Head, at her friend's home across the street, in a dustbin ready to be compacted and dumped at the local tip, or in any of innumerable other places.

It would still be necessary for the police to investigate and conduct searches before the phone's location would actually mean something. If those searches revealed no solid evidence, the police would be stuck. They might have a pretty good idea where, maybe why, and perhaps even who. But sadly that isn't always enough.

I can't say with certainty that the police did any of this with Claudia's phone data, but if they didn't do it I would want to know why; this technology was already so fundamental to police investigations in 2009 that it would boggle my mind if they really only know what they have announced to the press.

The more likely explanation is that they DID do all of this and simply haven't spoken publicly about it.

The police held back information in just about every case I've ever followed. Why should Claudia's be different? A lot of evidence can become inadmissible if it's mishandled prior to a trial. The withholding of evidence is very rarely some big conspiracy or evil lie, it's simply a matter of playing their cards close to their chest until they can present the evidence in court. Which they have sadly never had the opportunity to do for Claudia.

It's much better if the police keep their powder dry until the day when they can actually use it--or the day when the suspects are beyond earthly justice and revealing everything will no longer matter.
 
  • #716
I don't know whether anyone will be interested in reading this, but as I hate leaving issues unfinished I've written this in an attempt to answer any remaining questions about mobile phone technology. It's long but hopefully covers everything. If anyone remains unconvinced I'm honestly not sure there's more I can say about it.

As ever, I will cover my butt by saying this is all JMO. But for those interested I will also provide these two Wikipedia links which go into much more of the technical scientific detail:


Claudia's phone was a Samsung D900 which connected to the 2G GSM network. GSM was first developed in the mid 1980s; early implementations went into use in the early 90s, and it was almost ubiquitous by the early 2000s. The technology was already more than twenty years old by the time Claudia went missing. This is important because it speaks to how much experience the police already had with tracking mobile phones using this technology. It wasn't new or crude technology at all.

It is generally true that the 2G masts used in 2009 covered a much wider area than the 4G/5G masts used today. It's a simple matter of wavelength. The lower frequency of the 2G signal has a longer wavelength than the higher frequency of the 4G/5G signal, therefore the signal can travel a longer distance between masts. Despite there being fewer masts in 2009 than there are today, the much wider range of the 2G masts actually meant you were just as likely to be within range of multiple masts as you are in 2025.

Modern 4G/5G mobile technology uses shorter wavelengths which require closer spacing of the masts to achieve the *exact same* level of coverage. Phone companies wouldn't waste their money installing masts at every street corner if they could get away with installing just two or three in every square mile. Modern masts are more densely packed because they have to be. And yet there were, nonetheless, already close to fifty 2G masts in the centre of York as far back as 2002. At any one time, even in 2009, a phone near the centre of York would probably have been within range of at least half a dozen masts.

In any case, a phone mast with a range of 9 miles--such as the York University mast--would almost certainly be what is called a "macrocell". Those are the largest and most powerful types of phone mast: the type you see mounted on top of tall buildings or on huge pylons in the middle of a field. They are generally used in areas of high traffic or as a "router" for smaller local masts. Which means a phone connected to the University's mast would quite possibly have been connected to another more localised mast as well--whether the police ever choose to divulge that information or not.

Moreover, the purpose of such a powerful mast at a University isn't to provide coverage for a wide area, even if the mast is technically capable of doing that: the purpose is to provide a strong signal for the huge number of calls and texts generated by the mass of humanity at the University campus!

The reality is that it doesn't matter precisely where the masts are located when there are so many of them. In the middle of a major city, the chances of EVER being within range of just one phone mast are slim. If your phone is in range of a mast it WILL ping that mast to check the signal strength. That is how the technology has worked ever since the invention of GSM four decades ago; the technology didn't suddenly change just to make things more difficult for the Claudia Lawrence investigation.

If Claudia's phone connected to the University's mast in preference to numerous others nearby, that already tells the police a lot. It already narrows down the likely location of the phone, and calculations based on the strength and direction of the signal could probably get the location down to perhaps a half-mile square. That is with the data from just the *one* mast we can be certain about.

The idea that the police wouldn't be able to narrow it down beyond the mast's full 9-mile range is simply not how this technology works. It doesn't matter whether the police ever admit it or not, the technology has *never* worked that way. GSM uses the strength and direction of the signal to estimate location; merely by looking at the logged signal between the phone and the mast, the police would most likely know if it was 1 mile away, 9 miles away, stationary or in motion. GSM tracking takes more time and effort than modern GPS tracking, but it is nonetheless remarkably accurate.

In addition, the police could look at Claudia's phone records from the previous days and weeks when she was calling and texting from *known* locations. They could check which phone masts she connected to on those occasions, check the signal strength from those locations, and extrapolate where her phone was likely to be on the day of her disappearance based on her prior location history.

This technology has been in use for decades and it's only in recent years that the police have been willing to openly talk about it. They quite understandably didn't want every random person knowing the exact capabilities they had; they wanted to maintain the integrity of the technology as a valid investigative tool. The reason they can talk about it now is because GSM is largely defunct.

Mobile phone technology has never been complicated. A phone pings numerous masts to find the strongest signal. Once the phone finds the strongest signal it connects to it. Once connected to a mast the phone continues to ping other masts to ensure it always has the best possible connection.

Because a phone pings multiple masts, and because those pings are recorded in the logs of the mast, the police can request that data from the service provider. Using that data they can triangulate/trilaterate the location of the phone. Triangulation relates to the direction/angle of the phone relative to the phone mast; trilateration relates to the distance of the phone from the phone mast which is derived from the strength of the signal. By taking those data points and doing some fancy calculations, you absolutely can locate a phone to within a street or two.

The precise location of each mast is only important to the person who is doing those calculations. Whether a mast is two miles away or ten yards away is totally irrelevant unless you have the phone data required to make the locations mean something. We don't have that. We probably never will.

In the earliest days of the investigation the police team seemed to be fairly convinced that Claudia had remained at home and set off for work as intended. Perhaps that was a bluff. But if her phone had been tracked to within the Heworth/Melrosegate area, it wouldn't have rung any alarm bells initially because that was exactly where Claudia's phone was supposed to be.

Even if Claudia's phone had been tracked right to Heworth Road, that would still mean it could have been at her home, at the Nag's Head, at her friend's home across the street, in a dustbin ready to be compacted and dumped at the local tip, or in any of innumerable other places.

It would still be necessary for the police to investigate and conduct searches before the phone's location would actually mean something. If those searches revealed no solid evidence, the police would be stuck. They might have a pretty good idea where, maybe why, and perhaps even who. But sadly that isn't always enough.

I can't say with certainty that the police did any of this with Claudia's phone data, but if they didn't do it I would want to know why; this technology was already so fundamental to police investigations in 2009 that it would boggle my mind if they really only know what they have announced to the press.

The more likely explanation is that they DID do all of this and simply haven't spoken publicly about it.

The police held back information in just about every case I've ever followed. Why should Claudia's be different? A lot of evidence can become inadmissible if it's mishandled prior to a trial. The withholding of evidence is very rarely some big conspiracy or evil lie, it's simply a matter of playing their cards close to their chest until they can present the evidence in court. Which they have sadly never had the opportunity to do for Claudia.

It's much better if the police keep their powder dry until the day when they can actually use it--or the day when the suspects are beyond earthly justice and revealing everything will no longer matter.
What a post! 💪
I totally appreciate the time and effort you have put into getting this information together. I hope the intended reader appreciated it too! 😉

Hopefully that day WILL come for the police to use - no doubt - lots of withheld information and evidence they have gathered!
 
  • #717
I'm confident the timings are known, Ruth. I can't quite remember what order because it's been a while, but I'm pretty sure a cursory glance at disclosure on the internet will reveal the times. From memory:

CCTV of alley man at 7:15. In the space of being off camera after going down the alley to being back on camera coming from the alley, insufficient time to reach Claudia's back door.

Memory isn't what it was but think Claudia spoke to her Dad first and then her Mam (that night). You'll easily be able to verify this from authoritative sources on the internet. Her Mam was 8pmish? Watching the same programme?



It's a fair enough point but I personally wouldn't place too much store in that. It is very telling however, that there was no evidence of Claudia being attacked in her home. In all likelihood, that's because she wasn't attacked in her home.
You seem to keep saying the same things over and over again and some of your theory’s seem more complicated than others. Are you trying to convince us or yourself? So you think the police are wrong about saying she did not leave for work that morning?
I agree what happened isn’t that complicated it just appears that way Looking in. And the only theory you completely disagree with is the cps4 which has the most evidence to back it up and since about 2015 along with the police stating on every opportunity they are lying to the police (her friends or those closest) you think this is completely wrong (the official stance). yet any other theory you think is plausible except the most obvious one and “statistics” would back up her mates/ exs done it,
(Not saying they did) Jen King says it’s probably is one of them? You seem to dismiss it by dismissing known facts. And you do not acknowledge there is no evidence she left for work at all.
 
  • #718
I'm confident the timings are known, Ruth. I can't quite remember what order because it's been a while, but I'm pretty sure a cursory glance at disclosure on the internet will reveal the times. From memory:

CCTV of alley man at 7:15. In the space of being off camera after going down the alley to being back on camera coming from the alley, insufficient time to reach Claudia's back door.

Memory isn't what it was but think Claudia spoke to her Dad first and then her Mam (that night). You'll easily be able to verify this from authoritative sources on the internet. Her Mam was 8pmish? Watching the same programme?



It's a fair enough point but I personally wouldn't place too much store in that. It is very telling however, that there was no evidence of Claudia being attacked in her home. In all likelihood, that's because she wasn't attacked in her home.
Attacked? Was she attacked somewhere else then? Somewhere not to far away from home do you think?
 
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  • #719
I'm puzzled by this myself. At the time of searching RC's (the landlord's) properties on East Parade in August 2009, the police were quite clear that they believed he was the man in the CCTV. But due to his death not long after Claudia's disappearance, they would never be able to say with complete certainty.

There's always talk of the man in the CCTV "going behind Claudia's house." But whilst that is technically true, Heworth Place also has a row of roughly one dozen small terraced properties. The alleyway in question, assuming the man ever actually went near it, runs between the properties on both Heworth Road and Heworth Place, providing--if not overgrown--access to the back gardens of approximately twenty houses.

Despite stopping to let another person walk past, it seems to me that the man on the CCTV was just trying to keep some distance rather than actively avoid being seen: I say this because he stopped almost directly under a street light!

The story of RC regularly giving his rental properties a quick once-over always made a lot of sense to me. I guess the real question would be whether or not there is CCTV of the same man in that location prior to the night/morning of Claudia's disappearance. How far back did the police go in their CCTV search?

If this man appeared on CCTV numerous times in the days or weeks preceding Claudia's disappearance, IMO it minimises the chances of him being involved. If he only appears on the CCTV that night/morning, it increases the chances of involvement.

It's quite possible the police have now identified the man in the CCTV as someone other than RC, and have simply never announced it. But here on WS, we have to be very careful about stating things as a fact without providing links to reliable sources to back it up. The idea of it being someone other than RC is a perfectly valid theory, and I definitely don't dismiss it; but without published support from a trustworthy source it is just one more possibility among the many.
Someone arrested and questioned a lot in 2009/2010 was arrested again the day after this footage was released and was part of the cps4 the other 3 were then arrested after his release , then all 4 charged
 
  • #720
Attacked? Was she attacked somewhere else then? Somewhere not to far away from home do you think?

This doesn't make a great deal of sense.

We all think Claudia was attacked don't we?

What's your question?
 

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