UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #7

[SimeonOPatrick]

TRANSCORE LIMITED - Officers (free information from Companies House)

Thanks for that ML..... As I thought!! How do I pm you?

 

[MEKON]

If that was her preferred type wouldnt the huge construction site on the college campus would also offer opportunities to meet numerous men that fit this type

Using the source of Tim Newburn - CRIMINOLOGY (2007) Chapter 20 - p439-444

And sadly if we take it that Claudia has been murdered; then there are some interesting statistics:

Brookman (2005) took data from the Homicide Index and Police murder files and found Males to comprise 90% of homicide offenders


Morris and Blom-Cooper's study (1979) suggested that 40% of individuals that committed murder were aged between 15 and 24 yrs old
Mitchell (1990) stated that 62% of those that were convicted of murder were aged under 29 yrs old; and 85% of those who'd conducted murder were aged under 39 yrs old

Additionally; Brookman (2005) claims that the peak age of offending for homicide perpetrators is 31-35 yrs old

Interestingly; both Mitchell and Blom-Cooper's studies appear to find that Females convicted of murder are generally older than Male offenders

Furthermore; the work of Newman paraphrases? with some understatement that Mitchell (1990: 46) says that it: ...''appears that those convicted of murder are unlikely to be people pursuing professional careers''. Newburn then suggests Mitchells work adds: that only 4 out of the 250 people studied fell into a category of pursing a professional career. Additionally 48% of the sample were in non-professional occupations and 46% were unemployed.

The work of Dobash et al (2001) which centered on Male perpetrators of homicide; claimed: '' When compared to the general population, a greater proportion of these offenders had problems as children, included disrupted caretaking, physical and/or sexual abuse, substance abuse and early onset of offending. As adults they were likely to be under educated and unemployed. Nearly 50% had problems with alcohol while 25% had problems with drugs and a similar proportion had mental health problems (quoted in D'Cruze et al., 2006: 15)

Further research by Dobash et al. (2002) found that of the 180 male convicted murderers they interviewed in Scottish and English prisons. The following was found:

• 61% had problems at school
• 39% were from broken homes
• 24% came from families where the father used violence against the mother
• 26% had been in care
• 25% had problems with alcohol as children
• 10% had learning impairments
• 25% had mental health impairments

Newburn concluded that like most crime types; murder is predominantly committed by men



Motive and relationship

Brookman (2005: 56) comments: 'few commentators believe that homicide, or any other crime violent or otherwise has a single cause '.

Mitchell (1979: 58) states 44% of the male victims and almost all the female victims were killed during the course of some dispute with someone they knew, and this led Mitchell to believe that:... ''whether the victim be male or female,it seems that the most common motive for unlawful homicide is some sort of personal emotional reason; that is,the offence is committed in the course of a quarrel or fit of temper'

Similarly, Gibson (1975) found that over 33% of female victims were killed by their husbands. I will add a comment to that. Perhaps a statistic would be of a similar nature with female victims killed by their partners?

Morris and Blom-Cooper (1979) that summarized existing evidence; concluded:

'' Earlier studies of homicide established that murder was overwhelmingly a domestic crime. More than 50% of the persons indicted for murder each year have a familiar relationship, and up to 66% of all have had a personal relationship of some duration and/or intensity with the victim. Only about 25% of the total number of murder victims have been total strangers to their victims''


Newburn further claimed that Mitchell's data (1979) tended to collaborate with Morris and Blom-Coopers work above. Among Mitchells sample; only 22% of the perpetrators were strangers. Thus 78% of murderers had some sort of relationship with the victim.

The 2 biggest type of relationship links are:

• Friend/acquaintence - 40%
• Spouse/cohabitant or former spouse/cohabitant - 15%

Use of weapons:

In the cases of homicide; sharp weapons (usually a knife) are the most commonly used. Morris and Blom-Cooper (1979) found that between 22% and 40% of murders were conducted via a sharp instrument (sample from 1957-1977).

Mitchells (1990) small sample concluded that 39% of cases involved a sharp instrument,22% were conducted by strangulation and 19% saw a blunt implement as the murder weapon. 8% were conducted by shooting.

Recent Home office reports state that less than 10% of murders are committed via shooting; whereas nearly 33% are conducted through the use of a sharp instrument

Interestingly; Brookman (2005) in a bar chart breaks down the 'method of killing' in England and Wales between 1995-2001. The findings are approx:

• Sharp instrument - 30%
• Hitting/Kicking - 11%
• Blunt instrument - 9%
• Shooting - 8%
• Strangulation - 7%
• Poisoning - 5%
• Causing to fall - 6%
• Suffocation - 4%
• Other - 16%
• Not known - 4%

Yes i know each case should be conducted as a separate entity but statistics should not be ignored

 

[keep-it-real]

Using the source of Tim Newburn - CRIMINOLOGY (2007) Chapter 20 - p439-444

And sadly if we take it that Claudia has been murdered; then there are some interesting statistics:

Brookman (2005) took data from the Homicide Index and Police murder files and found Males to comprise 90% of homicide offenders


Morris and Blom-Cooper's study (1979) suggested that 40% of individuals that committed murder were aged between 15 and 24 yrs old
Mitchell (1990) stated that 62% of those that were convicted of murder were aged under 29 yrs old; and 85% of those who'd conducted murder were aged under 39 yrs old

Additionally; Brookman (2005) claims that the peak age of offending for homicide perpetrators is 31-35 yrs old

Interestingly; both Mitchell and Blom-Cooper's studies appear to find that Females convicted of murder are generally older than Male offenders

Furthermore; the work of Newman paraphrases? with some understatement that Mitchell (1990: 46) says that it: ...''appears that those convicted of murder are unlikely to be people pursuing professional careers'. Newburn then suggests Mitchells work adds: that only 4 out of the 250 people studied fell into a category of pursing a professional career. Additionally 48% of the sample were in non-professional occupations and 46% were unemployed.

The work of Dobash et al (2001) which centered on Male perpetrators of homicide; claimed: '' When compared to the general population, a greater proportion of these offenders had problems as children, included disrupted caretaking, physical and/or sexual abuse, substance abuse and early onset of offending. As adults they were likely to be under educated and unemployed. Nearly 50% had problems with alcohol while 25% had problems with drugs and a similar proportion had mental health problems (quoted in D'Cruze et al., 2006: 15)

Further research by Dobash et al. (2002) found that of the 180 male convicted murderers they interviewed in Scottish and English prisons. The following was found:

• 61% had problems at school
• 39% were from broken homes
• 24% came from families where the father used violence against the mother
• 26% had been in care
• 25% had problems with alcohol as children
• 10% had learning impairments
• 25% had mental health impairments

Newburn concluded that like most crime types; murder is predominantly committed by men



Motive and relationship

Brookman (2005: 56) comments: 'few commentators believe that homicide, or any other crime violent or otherwise has a single cause '.

Mitchell (1979: 58) states 445 of the male victims and almost all the female victims were killed during the course of some dispute with someone they knew, and this led Mitchell to believe that:... ''whether the victim be male or female,it seems that the most common motive for unlawful homicide is some sort of personal emotional reason; that is,the offence is committed in the course of a quarrel or fit of temper'

Similarly, Gibson (1975) found that over 33% of female victims were killed by their husbands. I will add a comment to that. Perhaps a statistic would be of a similar nature with female victims killed by their partners?

Morris and Blom-Cooper (1979) that summarized existing evidence; concluded:

'' Earlier studies of homicide established that murder was overwhelmingly a domestic crime. More than 50% of the persons indicted for murder each year have a familiar relationship, and up to 66% of all have had a personal relationship of some duration and/or intensity with the victim. Only about 25% of the total number of murder victims have been total strangers to their victims''


Newburn further claimed that Mitchell's data (1979) tended to collaborate with Morris and Blom-Coopers work above. Among Mitchells sample; only 22% of the perpetrators were strangers. Thus 78% of murderers had some sort of relationship with the victim.

The 2 biggest type of relationship links are:

• Friend/acquaintence - 40%
• Spouse/cohabitant or former spouse/cohabitant - 15%

Use of weapons:

In the cases of homicide; sharp weapons (usually a knife) are the most commonly used. Morris and Blom-Cooper (1979) found that between 22% and 40% of murders were conducted via a sharp instrument (sample from 1957-1977).

Mitchells (1990) small sample concluded that 39% of cases involved a sharp instrument,22% were conducted by strangulation and 19% saw a blunt implement as the murder weapon. 8% were conducted by shooting.

Recent Home office reports state that less than 10% of murders are committed via shooting; whereas nearly 33% are conducted through the use of a sharp instrument

Interestingly; Brookman (2005) in a bar chart breaks down the 'method of killing' in England and Wales between 1995-2001. The findings are approx:

• Sharp instrument - 30%
• Hitting/Kicking - 11%
• Blunt instrument - 9%
• Shooting - 8%
• Strangulation - 7%
• Poisoning - 5%
• Causing to fall - 6%
• Suffocation - 4%
• Other - 16%
• Not known - 4%

Yes i know each case should be conducted as a separate entity but statistics should not be ignored

An extremley informative post Mekon thank you for posting it

 

[MEKON]

We know that now but they would have been unaware that she was missing for 48 hrs when they first unlocked her front door and found that she was not at home. Just because someone has not turned into work for two shifts does not make them a missing person, it means they are AWOL. Which again leads me to wonder what the policy of the uni is/was on staff simply not turning in for work? I know they had attempted to call CL to establish why she was not in for work but where is their duty of care to their emloyee? Would they not contact her NOK to establish if she was okay?... Poor show on behalf of the uni I'd say!

I think there was a few others that could of checked on Claudia; but didn't

 

[MEKON]

An extremley informative post Mekon thank you for posting it

''No probs; i'll have a scout about'' for some more statistics from other sources; as they say: '' the more academic sources that are used,the more value-free are the correlations within the findings of the data''

 

[MajorLang]

Using the source of Tim Newburn - CRIMINOLOGY (2007) Chapter 20 - p439-444

And sadly if we take it that Claudia has been murdered; then there are some interesting statistics:

Brookman (2005) took data from the Homicide Index and Police murder files and found Males to comprise 90% of homicide offenders


Morris and Blom-Cooper's study (1979) suggested that 40% of individuals that committed murder were aged between 15 and 24 yrs old
Mitchell (1990) stated that 62% of those that were convicted of murder were aged under 29 yrs old; and 85% of those who'd conducted murder were aged under 39 yrs old

Additionally; Brookman (2005) claims that the peak age of offending for homicide perpetrators is 31-35 yrs old

Interestingly; both Mitchell and Blom-Cooper's studies appear to find that Females convicted of murder are generally older than Male offenders

Furthermore; the work of Newman paraphrases? with some understatement that Mitchell (1990: 46) says that it: ...''appears that those convicted of murder are unlikely to be people pursuing professional careers''. Newburn then suggests Mitchells work adds: that only 4 out of the 250 people studied fell into a category of pursing a professional career. Additionally 48% of the sample were in non-professional occupations and 46% were unemployed.

The work of Dobash et al (2001) which centered on Male perpetrators of homicide; claimed: '' When compared to the general population, a greater proportion of these offenders had problems as children, included disrupted caretaking, physical and/or sexual abuse, substance abuse and early onset of offending. As adults they were likely to be under educated and unemployed. Nearly 50% had problems with alcohol while 25% had problems with drugs and a similar proportion had mental health problems (quoted in D'Cruze et al., 2006: 15)

Further research by Dobash et al. (2002) found that of the 180 male convicted murderers they interviewed in Scottish and English prisons. The following was found:

• 61% had problems at school
• 39% were from broken homes
• 24% came from families where the father used violence against the mother
• 26% had been in care
• 25% had problems with alcohol as children
• 10% had learning impairments
• 25% had mental health impairments

Newburn concluded that like most crime types; murder is predominantly committed by men



Motive and relationship

Brookman (2005: 56) comments: 'few commentators believe that homicide, or any other crime violent or otherwise has a single cause '.

Mitchell (1979: 58) states 445 of the male victims and almost all the female victims were killed during the course of some dispute with someone they knew, and this led Mitchell to believe that:... ''whether the victim be male or female,it seems that the most common motive for unlawful homicide is some sort of personal emotional reason; that is,the offence is committed in the course of a quarrel or fit of temper'

Similarly, Gibson (1975) found that over 33% of female victims were killed by their husbands. I will add a comment to that. Perhaps a statistic would be of a similar nature with female victims killed by their partners?

Morris and Blom-Cooper (1979) that summarized existing evidence; concluded:

'' Earlier studies of homicide established that murder was overwhelmingly a domestic crime. More than 50% of the persons indicted for murder each year have a familiar relationship, and up to 66% of all have had a personal relationship of some duration and/or intensity with the victim. Only about 25% of the total number of murder victims have been total strangers to their victims''


Newburn further claimed that Mitchell's data (1979) tended to collaborate with Morris and Blom-Coopers work above. Among Mitchells sample; only 22% of the perpetrators were strangers. Thus 78% of murderers had some sort of relationship with the victim.

The 2 biggest type of relationship links are:

• Friend/acquaintence - 40%
• Spouse/cohabitant or former spouse/cohabitant - 15%

Use of weapons:

In the cases of homicide; sharp weapons (usually a knife) are the most commonly used. Morris and Blom-Cooper (1979) found that between 22% and 40% of murders were conducted via a sharp instrument (sample from 1957-1977).

Mitchells (1990) small sample concluded that 39% of cases involved a sharp instrument,22% were conducted by strangulation and 19% saw a blunt implement as the murder weapon. 8% were conducted by shooting.

Recent Home office reports state that less than 10% of murders are committed via shooting; whereas nearly 33% are conducted through the use of a sharp instrument

Interestingly; Brookman (2005) in a bar chart breaks down the 'method of killing' in England and Wales between 1995-2001. The findings are approx:

• Sharp instrument - 30%
• Hitting/Kicking - 11%
• Blunt instrument - 9%
• Shooting - 8%
• Strangulation - 7%
• Poisoning - 5%
• Causing to fall - 6%
• Suffocation - 4%
• Other - 16%
• Not known - 4%

Yes i know each case should be conducted as a separate entity but statistics should not be ignored

So if you put all that together then what does it indicate in this case.
Of course if it was an accident and then a cover up none of this would apply.
"Lies dammed lies and statistics"

 

[MajorLang]

I think there was a few others that could of checked on Claudia; but didn't

Yes and as Claudia was a prolific texter why did no one notice the silence or did they but not want to be the "news breaker" you see if you break the news you then have to keep yourself pulled together so as not to give the game away-It all nicely points towards Malyns statement

 

[MajorLang]

W

''No probs; i'll have a scout about'' for some more statistics from other sources; as they say: '' the more academic sources that are used,the more value-free are the correlations within the findings of the data''

Will this case be solved by mathematics though I or good solid policing?

 

[Popejohn3]

Yes but how do we know that the Nags head person didn't make this story of the reported back pack up?

I believe it was more than one at the Nh “we told him to go to the police “

 

[MajorLang]

I believe it was more than one at the Nh “we told him to go to the police “

It was Jim Mellon the joint landlord so was probably speaking as the Royal we.

 

[keep-it-real]

4th April 2020... An interesting piece by Neil Wilby Journalist and Justice Campaigner titled
‘That particularly dubious constabulary merits careful investigation’
which contains a mention of the Claudia Lawrence case
Claudia Lawrence – Neil Wilby

 

[Eyes Wide Open]

Yes along with the adjoining gates into one another's gardens which existed in 2009. A burglar's dream.

Coincidentally, Zoopla show that the house next door (44 HR) is currently up for sale. Photos 21 and 23 show the adjoining gate to CL's back garden still exists, while 22,24&25 also show other angles at the back. Here's the link. As the property is now under offer, the link may go soon.
Property history - 44 Heworth Road, York YO31 0AD - Marketed for sale on 13th Mar 2020 - Zoopla

 

[Popejohn3]

An elderly neighbour saw it although no date was given when it apparently happened. He live right by NH and it happened outside there IIRC.

Of course it could've been innocent high jinks and her going with friends into York. Sometimes when you're drunk you playfully drag someone into taxi/car who perhaps dosen't want to continue the evening.

I assume whoever reported that isn't alive anymore.

But you would expect it to be found in a newspaper report tv show or you tube

 

[MajorLang]

4th April 2020... An interesting piece by Neil Wilby Journalist and Justice Campaigner titled
‘That particularly dubious constabulary merits careful investigation’
which contains a mention of the Claudia Lawrence case
Claudia Lawrence – Neil Wilby

I've seen this and yes but could be levelled at most U.K. Police forces

 

[MajorLang]

But you would expect it to be found in a newspaper report tv show or you tube

It was in Media

 

[MajorLang]

Coincidentally, Zoopla show that the house next door (44 HR) is currently up for sale. Photos 21 and 23 show the adjoining gate to CL's back garden still exists, while 22,24&25 also show other angles at the back. Here's the link. As the property is now under offer, the link may go soon.
Property history - 44 Heworth Road, York YO31 0AD - Marketed for sale on 13th Mar 2020 - Zoopla

You should also look at houses that back onto Heworth Road
If you age Google you will see that 15 Heworth Place had an open back garden that backed onto Claudias

 

[keep-it-real]

I've seen this and yes but could be levelled at most U.K. Police forces

But with respect its specifically about The North Yorkshire Police and as stated Claudia Lawrence's disappearance was one of the forces investigations that rightly came under scrutiny and criticism for the errors that they made in conducting the investigation.

 

[MEKON]

So if you put all that together then what does it indicate in this case.
Of course if it was an accident and then a cover up none of this would apply.
"Lies dammed lies and statistics"

Statistics are only 1 part of solving a puzzle. Criminological theory very rarely has 1 answer in theoretical discussion; but tickboxes and ideas through statistics,Philosophical,Sociological, Environmental and Psychological paradigms for example etc . However;every case should be taken on its own merit


So; using the source of Tim Newburn - CRIMINOLOGY (2007) Chapter 20 - p439-444 and sadly if we take it that Claudia has been murdered:



Males to comprise 90% of homicide offenders - Thus there is a high chance the perpetrator is obviously Male

85% of murders are committed by someone under the age of 39 yrs old - So; using a tally. There's now a chance the murderer was a Male under the age of 39 yrs old

40% of individuals that committed murder were aged between 15 and 24 yrs old and 62% of those that were convicted of murder were aged under 29 yrs old - Thus; there is a high chance the person that needs finding is Male and under the age of 39 yrs old. But its more likely there between 29-39 yrs of age

There's further claims that the peak age of offending for homicide perpetrators is 31-35 yrs old - So we can take it the most likely probability is that the Male is 31-35 yrs of age

48% of the sample were in non-professional occupations and 46% were unemployed - Thus we could add the 31-35 yr old Male is in a non-professional sector of work or unemployed.

To this; we could add that they had endured problems at school/lack of attainment (61%), witnessed or experienced physical and/or sexual abuse (25%), been in care or/and were from broken homes (24%), had alcohol (50%) and/or drug issues (25%), been offending at an early age, held mental health(25%)





Few commentators believe that homicide, or any other crime violent or otherwise has a single cause

44% of the male victims and almost all the female victims were killed during the course of some dispute with someone they knew, and it seems that the most common motive for unlawful homicide is some sort of personal emotional reason; that is,the offence is committed in the course of a quarrel or fit of temper

Over 33% of female victims were killed by their husbands. I will add a comment to that. Perhaps a statistic would be of a similar nature with female victims killed by their partners?

More than 50% of the persons indicted for murder each year have a familiar relationship, and up to 66-78% of all have had a personal relationship of some duration and/or intensity with the victim. Only about 22-25% of the total number of murder victims have been total strangers to their victims''

• Friend/acquaintence - 40%
• Spouse/cohabitant or former spouse/cohabitant - 15%

Motive and relationship - Someone Claudia knew, and there was most likely more than one motive. The event was most likely conducted during an argument due to a personal emotional reason by either a person Claudia had been in some sort of relationship with, a friend or an acquaintence

And we can add the above to the info below:

Good chance its a Male perpetrator who is 31-35 yrs old and is in a non-professional sector of work or unemployed.

To this; we could add that they had endured problems at school/lack of attainment (61%), witnessed or experienced physical and/or sexual abuse (25%), been in care or/and were from broken homes (24%), had alcohol (50%) and/or drug issues (25%), been offending at an early age, held mental health(25%)





Use of weapons:

In the cases of homicide; sharp weapons (usually a knife) are the most commonly used. Between 22% and 40% of murders were conducted via a sharp instrument (sample from 1957-1977).

Mitchells small sample concluded that 39% of cases involved a sharp instrument,22% were conducted by strangulation and 19% saw a blunt implement as the murder weapon. 8% were conducted by shooting.

Recent reports state that less than 10% of murders are committed via shooting; whereas nearly 33% are conducted through the use of a sharp instrument

In England and Wales between 1995-2001. The findings are approx:

• Sharp instrument - 30%
• Hitting/Kicking - 11%
• Blunt instrument - 9%
• Shooting - 8%
• Strangulation - 7%
• Poisoning - 5%
• Causing to fall - 6%
• Suffocation - 4%
• Other - 16%

Thus statistics could suggest the perpetrator is a 31-35 yrs old Male and is in a non-professional sector of work or unemployed.
Claudia knew this person, and there was most likely more than one motive. The event was most likely conducted during an argument due to a personal emotional reason by either a person Claudia had been in some sort of relationship with, a friend or an acquaintance

To this; we could add that they had endured problems at school/lack of attainment (61%), witnessed or experienced physical and/or sexual abuse (25%), been in care or/and were from broken homes (24%), had alcohol (50%) and/or drug issues (25%), been offending at an early age, held mental health impairments (25%)

Statistically; a sharp object is the most common weapon used


Statistics do not always provide all the answers but can provide probable tickbox checklists

 

[keep-it-real]

I w

Coincidentally, Zoopla show that the house next door (44 HR) is currently up for sale. Photos 21 and 23 show the adjoining gate to CL's back garden still exists, while 22,24&25 also show other angles at the back. Here's the link. As the property is now under offer, the link may go soon.
Property history - 44 Heworth Road, York YO31 0AD - Marketed for sale on 13th Mar 2020 - Zoopla

Given that Peter Ruanne owns property on Heworth Road I wonder if he would be interested in
this one too

 

[MajorLang]

But with respect its specifically about The North Yorkshire Police and as stated Claudia Lawrence's disappearance was one of the forces investigations that rightly came under scrutiny and criticism for the errors that they made in conducting the investigation.

Yes they did and that's why Malyn was appointed