UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #13

[guruagain]

<snip>

2- Secondary I will try and simplify. 450AM BM ping is not as a result of the lorry carrying the phone, it is the phone arriving earlier in BM in an "power off" state and then being turned on, at 0450. If we go with this then realistically we have a period of 0308-0450 when the phone could go to BM.
Now why do I believe this to be potential? Well simply 28 minutes is too long to get from the last possible BSE ping (Flempton area) to the first BM (Icklingham). Remember, a ping does not identify you as being in anything other than a 5 mile radius. In reality the goodbye and hello pings should only be 5 minutes apart, therefore 28 minutes is just not relevant to anything at all unless it took 28 minutes to.drive the distance from Flempton to Icklingham, but even then the departure time from HS is massively wrong The phone clearly goes to inside the BM mast but the time and method are not at all concrete and this is why the landfill was not searched.
JMO

Good points - That is why I am interested in how a mobile interacts with a network and whether it just attaches and disconnects by default (after 3 mins without ping) or whether the phone says hello let me join I am here and have been switched on.

 

[Clevercat]

I was thinking last night that there is a strong possibility he is still alive. Based on the fact not one positive sighting, no body found, no leads, no new info etc. Maybe someone is keeping in captive.

I mean if he was murdered lets say, surely with all this heat on Corrie something would have been found by now. Its not exactly easy to get rid of a body is it. Unless you are a professional assassin.

All routes have been searched with a fine tooth comb. Not a thing found.

It just screams to me his still alive. Being held by someone.


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There's a vast area of forest in the vicinity of BSE, only a small proportion of which has been searched. IF he was given a lift out of the HS area part way and attempted the walk back (not necessarily from the expected direction), or if he was driven out of the immediate area entirely, the possible hiding places are endless imho.


Sorry- not trying to shoot your theory down in flames, just trying to give more perspective of the terrain/area.

 

[LorriB]

I think it's a good theory that the phone had only just been switched back on when the phone pings at 4.50.

I wonder though if we've only been told about this ping but it did in fact ping every 3 mins the rest of the way too. The fact the family have put so much emphasis on the fact it travelled within 1.5 mins of the bin lorry makes me think they know it was on. If it was switched off surely the data usage would cease and that would be very obvious when investigating.

These are all guesses obviously, who knows what the family know and haven't mentioned!

 

[guruagain]

Every few weeks I keep changing my mind! I discounted AWOL as there is just not the need for a plan that involves vanishing after a night out drinking, he could just walk out of Honington and vanish into the country side without any CCTV to worry about (RAF Regiment or not he evaded the CCTV from the horseshoe by accident rather than as a purposeful act imo). I did wonder about an impulse/ spur of the moment AWOL but can't see how anyone could pull that off for 15 weeks.

Hook up gone wrong - this has always been the strongest theory with me but why has no one else come forward to say -"oh yeah, I hooked up with Corrie on Tinder a few times " People love their 5 minutes of fame but no one has come forward so either Corrie was extremely unlucky with his first tinder hook up or he just doesn't use it for hook ups. In fact no one has come forward at all to say they dated Corrie. We only know of the one (ex) girlfriend due to the family released picture.

Abduction? Possibly but not a terrorist, either a crime of passion, mistaken identity or RAF beasting / prank gone wrong?

Accident on way home. I can't see him being able to walk out of the area without being seen, even if he did manage to pass by the council CCTV. I just think there are too many private cameras, car cameras and people about town who would have seen him.

Part lift - then accident on way home? Just doesn't cut it for me. Corrie would have to be unluckier than Norman Wisdom and Victor Meldrew to have a night where - He misses a lift into town so has to drive, parking in a ticketable spot, get thrown out of a nightclub after a short time, drunkenly fall asleep in a shop doorway, manage to arrange a lift but only part way in the wrong direction then lose his phone and then have a fatal accident on the walk back to base.

In short - not a clue! just my own thoughts.

 

[Shiressleuth]

Just to add to my previous post. 28 mins from last Bury ping to first BM is potentially walking or running speed.

Where are you getting this from? They have said many times that it moved at the speed a vehicle would move at. This constant fiddling with times and data is just confusing the basic facts. The latest TW update states the phone/vehicle may not even have gone near the BM roundabout.

 

[MidsummersDay]

The only method of being able to estimate the speed at which the phone is moving is to go from last ping from Mast A to first ping in Mast B. All we know is of the 0450 ping at BM, but if the phone is on (and updating apps etc) then that; on the A1101; is probably Icklingham, this therefore puts the bin wagon at taking closer to 40 minutes to arrive at Fiveways from HS, an average speed of 22MPH
So to me 28 minutes is simply the time between the wagon leaving HS and the BM ping, rendering the theory of bin wagon difficult because it does not factor in the last ping of the phone in BSE mast area, unless somebody wants to tell me the phone pinged for the last time at the exact moment that the lorry left?

Just to clarify Pilgrim, you are aware that the phone left BSE central to within 1 1/2 minutes of the bin wagon aren't you? And the phone took 28 minutes to travel from A to B?
I'll try to find the links.....can anyone help?


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[Blueazman74]

I think it's a good theory that the phone had only just been switched back on when the phone pings at 4.50.

I wonder though if we've only been told about this ping but it did in fact ping every 3 mins the rest of the way too. The fact the family have put so much emphasis on the fact it travelled within 1.5 mins of the bin lorry makes me think they know it was on. If it was switched off surely the data usage would cease and that would be very obvious when investigating.

These are all guesses obviously, who knows what the family know and haven't mentioned!

I would agree with that. Much more is known by LE about the phone, it would transmit its signal strength with the network handshake, so distance to the mast would also be know (taking into account other variables such as weather etc.). TW has said the micromast it pinged is also directional, this areas does cover a number of roads that not all cross the roundabout.

 

[Diamba85]

Does anyone know if Corrie smokes? As cigarettes aren't listed as things he had on him (not sure if they'd even bother mentioning it but still..), if he woke up he'd probably be wanting a cigarette if he's a smoker. And he clearly doesn't mind approaching strangers. He may have seen someone smoking and intrepidly made his way over to ask for one.


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[Shiressleuth]

Just a thought about awol and parking in the disabled spot. N said it was a sign he would be back the next day. Well knowing that it is her car (she paid for it) would actually be a way of him leaving it for his mum and ensuring she would get it back. It would explain why he didn't take it therefore.JMO.

 

[MidsummersDay]

Okay even though I feel AWOL is unlikely I have a couple of questions about that as a possibility.

<modsnip>
Why September? he had plans with family and if I remember rightly was due to be paid.

It doesn't feel right to me but maybe because I'm thinking he would have set up some sort of care for his dog, picked up his money, sold his car ect if he was going to just vanish.

<modsnip>
He was due to be paid one week later (end of the month).
The car was paid for by his mother I believe so no real 'respect for ownership' if that's the correct term?

JMO



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[Blueazman74]

Does anyone know if Corrie smokes? As cigarettes aren't listed as things he had on him (not sure if they'd even bother mentioning it but still..), if he woke up he'd probably be wanting a cigarette if he's a smoker. And he clearly doesn't mind approaching strangers. He may have seen someone smoking and intrepidly made his way over to ask for one.


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According to N he does.

 

[Diamba85]

correct me if i am wrong but my belief was that two taxis not cars were used - this was due to the fact that the lads had all already been drinking? i think this was said early on?

Do you mean on their way back to base?


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[MidsummersDay]

Layman's Terms:

HS to edge of BSE mast range is 5 miles.

HS to BM mast is 15 miles.

BM mast radius also of 5 miles.

This leaves a 5 mile gap which is where we measure the speed. Ping to Ping we are told is 28 mins, so 5 miles in 28 mins is 11Mph. Too fast to run or walk, but too slow for a vehicle.

Only option is a bike, or somebody simply turned the phone on at 0450 within 5 miles of BM mast.

I'm not sure it is 'ping to ping'. I'm sure it's mast central to mast central. I need to find a link.
JMO

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[Shiressleuth]

I would agree with that. Much more is known by LE about the phone, it would transmit its signal strength with the network handshake, so distance to the mast would also be know (taking into account other variables such as weather etc.). TW has said the micromast it pinged is also directional, this areas does cover a number of roads that not all cross the roundabout.

Blue, I just posted about the TW roundabout comment too.

 

[Diamba85]

According to N he does.

Interesting. I'm also now interested to see if any cigarette butts were picked up around the horseshoe area for DNA analysis. I highly doubt it because I can't see LE putting in the recourses for that. Would of been helpful though. Could have figured out how long he'd been there or something.


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[Shiressleuth]

Layman's Terms:

HS to edge of BSE mast range is 5 miles.

HS to BM mast is 15 miles.

BM mast radius also of 5 miles.

This leaves a 5 mile gap which is where we measure the speed. Ping to Ping we are told is 28 mins, so 5 miles in 28 mins is 11Mph. Too fast to run or walk, but too slow for a vehicle.

Only option is a bike, or somebody simply turned the phone on at 0450 within 5 miles of BM mast.

I'm calling time on these calculations. Is this how 12 mph was worked out before? Completely inaccurate and misleading horseshoe.

 

[Shiressleuth]

Interesting. I'm also now interested to see if any cigarette butts were picked up around the horseshoe area for DNA analysis. I highly doubt it because I can't see LE putting in the recourses for that. Would of been helpful though. Could have figured out how long he'd been there or something.


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Diamba, what a good thought. Hanging about for cig/light/lift?

 

[Diamba85]

Diamba, what a good thought. Hanging about for cig/light/lift?

Yea it's a possibility. I'm a smoker and I know how much I need one when waking up. Haha. I also find the idea of timing how long he was there using cig butts with his DNA. But that's a massive job if there's loads of butts etc.

Focus 12 also has an outdoor smoking area. If I was LE I'd be interested in cigarette butts in their ashtrays.


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[Sybil755]

Can I just check with regards to the phone pings, if they state that the phone last pinged in BSE at 4:20 then again pinged on the next mast Barton / Mildenhall area area 5:am with no further pings, where left in area until battery failure switch off at 8am. The bin lorry arrived at the horseshoe at 4:20 also, this surely means that the phone had left BSE before the lorry left so not in the lorry at all, otherwise it would have had another one when the lorry crossed the perimeter of the mast? After this time.

I think Corrie arranged and met with someone at closing time for the clubs Flex worker (s) maybe, that person (s) then wanted something to eat so he got in car / vehicle with them went to 24hr supermarket for supply's he may have stayed in car when they got something or paid cash? Did they check cctv for supermarkets in BSE mast catchment area? Then drove on to party or Rave in woods in the Barton direction picked up on mast catchment in that area at 5am.

 

[Miss_French]

<modsnip>
He was due to be paid one week later (end of the month).
The car was paid for by his mother I believe so no real 'respect for ownership' if that's the correct term?

JMO



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The RAF pay is monthly, you are paid during training, and living expenses are minimal and are deducted at source.

Corrie had joined up 3 years ago so he's had money going into his account all that time, so where's it all gone that this 'getting paid in a week's time' has been given so much emphasis by N? She almost makes it sound like it's his first pay packet.

OK, he's got nice threads, maybe paying his mum towards the phone and car, maybe wasn't thinking of going out cos he was a bit short, but if he's got some direct debits and can burn through his pay that fast I don't see that waiting 1 week more to do a runner is a possibility.